Acreage Remains Big Unknown

July 9, 2015 06:30 AM
Acreage Remains Big Unknown

How many bushels of soybeans are American farmers likely to produce this year? The answer is hard to predict, given that planted acreage remains a big unknown.

“We pretty well know where we are going to be with corn,” said Steve Nicholson of Rabobank, speaking on U.S. Farm Report Saturday. “The question is going to become how many more soybean acres do we get put in now….You could get another 200,000 or 300,000 acres of beans in there before all is said and done. But we’re getting pretty close to the end at this point, because it’s late in the season, and crop insurance is going to dictate what farmers do.”

According to USDA’s June 30 Acreage report, farmers are projected to plant 88.9 million acres of corn and 85.1 million acres of soybeans this year. But heavy rains have delayed soybean planting in many states, leaving farmers and traders wondering just how many of those 85.1 million acres may be underwater, unplanted, or destined for prevent plant.

So is the USDA, which announced plans on June 30 that it would resurvey farmers in four states about planted acres for a handful of crops. On the list: Texas (cotton), Kansas (sorghum and soybeans), Missouri (soybeans) and Arkansas (soybeans).

“The market is waiting for this resurvey, which we should get on August 12,” said Mark Gold of Top Third Ag Marketing, also speaking on U.S. Farm Report. “Everybody thinks these numbers are going to come down.”

Listen to the U.S. Farm Report discussion:

Will production drop as well? As the markets prepare for the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Friday, traders are wondering if USDA might begin adjusting its yield forecasts.

Gold said it really all depends on weather. “If we can put some warmth on this crop and have a few scattered rains in July, we’re still capable of producing a huge corn crop in this country. The beans—we know from last year—can push yields where it’s good,” he said. “Are we going to see last year’s yields? Probably not. But we’ve got an awful lot of acres—a record number of acres—going in. If we have good weather in August, I think that’s going to be the overriding factor certainly over the next six weeks.”

Brian Basting of Advance Trading agreed. “We still have time for the soybean crop to recover,” he said during the U.S. Farm Report roundtable. “I just hope that we can see this crop (and)  the rain would let up at some point.”

What’s happening with soybean fields in your area? Leave a comment below or share your observations and photos with AgWeb’s Crop Comments

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Spell Check

Floating Farmer
Bloomington , IL
7/9/2015 01:14 PM

  I'm sure glad the good lord blessed Mr. Clayton with exceptional crops this year ! I wish all of us were so lucky! I would like to comment on Mr. Clayton's remark about a lot of false information and to say flood damaged acres will be much smaller!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! First, since June 1 we have received between 12- 15 inches of rain or more in central Illinois! Fields that last year produced over 250 bu. per acre corn will be hard pressed to make 140 bu. acre in 2015!!!Soybean fields this morning are stunted and sitting in water looking yellowish green with a 40 bu. per acre yield potential if that!!!!!!!!!!!!! Second, Mr. Clayton take a field trip thru central Illinois to Hanibal ,Mo.. Once you arrive in Hanibal take Route 19 to Route 54 and drive to Eldon, Mo.. While your traveling please count the number of unplanted soybean fields or better yet it may be easier to count the planted bean fields. Oh by the way count the number of high yielding corn fields!!!!!!!!!!!! Now Mr. Clayton once you make your field trip I think you will recant your statement as to how little flooded acres there is!!!!!! Oh by the way don't forget to look at the thousands of flooded acres in Danville, Bloomington, Decatur, Peoria and Springfield Il.. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The damage is endless!!!!!

T Kaeb
Cissna Park, IL
7/9/2015 07:55 AM

  USDA may think they have handle on acres, however they have no idea of the amount of damage the excess moisture has hurt this crop. Our area in north east central IL, I am planning on at least a 25% reduction in yields. this includes a large area in this part of ILL. Just finished replanting some for 3rd time and most of that is under water again this morn.

JL Farms
New Philadelphia, OH
7/9/2015 08:41 AM

  Beans throughout Ohio were planted mostly in mid to late May. Cold weather hurt emergence and then it turned wet. The plants have been sitting there basically dormant for a month. 15 inch rows have yet to canopy while the crop tries to catch its breath. If it keeps on raining with these cooler than average temps yields will be poor.


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