African Swine Fever Death Toll is Underestimated, Suderman Says

10:07AM Feb 12, 2019
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Just how bad is African swine fever (ASF) in China? Despite fewer outbreaks being reported, experts say the ASF death toll in China is higher than reports say.

“China’s basically trying to say that the problem is now contained and that they’ve lifted transportation bans on 90 different regions,” Arlan Suderman chief economist for INTL FCSTone told AgriTalk host Chip Flory. “The word is that this is unwarranted and may actually help encourage a spread of the disease further.”

China is now arresting people if they post pictures of dead hogs as the government is trying to contain this information, he said.

Lost Brazilian Bushels Offset By Lower Demand
China officials are claiming that hog feeding is down 15% while some put it at 20%, Suderman told Flory. Demand for soy meal is down another 5% beyond that.

“USDA is dramatically overstating Chinese demand for soybeans,” Suderman said. “I don't think they'll make a big adjustment this report, but we think that will eventually come and that offsets the losses we’re seeing in Brazil.”

Suderman believes the ASF situation will be a five- to -seven-year problem for China and that demand from China for soybeans will drop 20% or so, maybe more, for some years.  

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