AgDay Daily Recap - July 8, 2016

July 8, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 8, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -WE'RE CHECKING FOR DROUGHT AND DRY WEATHER... PLUS, WATCHING FOR THE BREXIT BEARS. IN THE PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING..."THE MARKET IS MOVING SO FAST, IT'S HARD TO SAY IT'S ALL WEATHER'S FAULT ISN'T IT?" AN OHIO GRIST MILL IS THIS WEEK'S GREAT AMERICAN BARN. AND COULD A CROP OF KELP HELP CONTROL CARBON IN THE WORLD'S OCEANS.
ALL EYES ON THE WEATHER:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AS SUMMER HEATS UP, ALL EYES ARE ON WEATHER--WATCHING FOR INDICATORS THAT COULD INFLUENCE THE FINAL OUTCOME OF THIS YEAR'S CROPS. DROUGHT EXPANDED JUST SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOWER 48. CURRENTLY 44 PERCENT OF THE COUNTRY IS FACING SOME SORT OF DROUGHT OR DRYNESS. THAT'S 8 POINTS WORSE THAN LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT THE MIDWEST--DROUGHT IS EXPANDING ESPECIALLY IN MICHIGAN. CURRENTLY 30 PERCENT OF THE REGION IS FACING SOME SORT OF DRYNESS OR DROUGHT. BUT COMPARE IT TO 2012... IN EARLY JULY OF THAT YEAR, SOME 75 PERCENT OF THE REGION WAS FACING THOSE SAME CONDITIONS. WHILE IT'S NOT 2012, THAT DOESN'T MEAN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AREN'T DEALING WITH WEATHER ISSUES. BETSY JIBBEN JOINS US NOW WITH MORE. CLINTON, SOME PARTS OF THE PRIMARY GRAIN-GROWING REGION RECEIVED SOME BADLY NEEDED RAINS THIS WEEK. BUT OTHER PARTS ARE STRUGGLING. USDA METEROLOGIST BRAD RIPPEY WRITES A MONTHLY UPDATE ON DROUGHT AND CROP CONDITIONS . RIPPEY SAYS AS OF JULY FIFTH, LESS THAN 7 PERCENT OF CORN PRODUCTION IS WITHIN AN AREA EXPERIENCING DROUGHT. STATES IMPACTED THE MOST INCLUDES MICHIGAN, NORTH DAKOTA, TENNESSEE, SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA. NOW LESS THAN 7 PERCENT OF SOYBEAN PRODUCTION IS WITHIN AN AREA EXPERIENCING DROUGHT. THOSE STATES ARE MISSISSIPPI, IOWA, MICHIGAN, SOUTH DAKOTA, MINNESOTA, HAY MAY BE SUFFERING THE MOST.
BREXIT:
IT'S BEEN TWO WEEKS SINCE BRITAIN VOTED TO SPLIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION. AND REPERCUSSIONS CONTINUE TO BE FELT. BUT IT APPEARS, SO FAR, THAT AGRICULTURAL TRADE WITH THE U-S MAY BE SPARED MUCH PAIN. THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR BRITAIN'S ECONOMY. THE BRITISH POUND DROPPED SHARPLY TO A 31-YEAR LOW THIS WEEK AMID CONCERNS THAT THE SPLIT MIGHT CAUSE A STEEP SLIDE IN U-K'S COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE VALUES AND HURT THE WIDER ECONOMY. TRADERS APPEAR WORRIED THAT COMPANIES MIGHT CHOOSE TO LEAVE LONDON TO MOVE OPERATIONS TO MAINLAND EUROPE TO RETAIN DIRECT MARKET ACCESS TO THE E-U MARKET.
USDA DATA ON DAIRY PROTECTION PROGRAM:
HERE AT HOME, THE USDA RELEASING MORE DATA ON THE DAIRY MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM. IT SHOWS U.S. DAIRY FARMERS SHIFTED TO CATASTROPHIC COVERAGE UNDER THE PROGRAM IN 2016.
ACCORDING TO USDA, NEARLY 25-THOUSAND FARMS OR 55 PERCENT OF LICENSED OPERATIONS EROLLED IN THE MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM FOR 2015 COVERAGE. OF THOSE NEARLY HALF CHOSE CATASTROPHIC COVERAGE. THAT PROGRAM PROVIDES PAYMENTS WHEN A NATIONAL AVERAGE MARGIN FALLS BELOW 4 DOLLARS. USDA SAYS THE CATASTROPHIC COVERAGE ELECTIONS WERE EVEN HIGHER IN 2016. MEANWHILE, OKLAHOMA STATE'S DERRELL PEEL SAYS DAIRY CATTLE WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT IN AMERICA'S FEED YARDS IN THE COMING YEARS. HE SAYS AS BEEF CATTLE INVENTORIES INCREASE, THE PERCENTAGE OF DAIRY CATTLE AS A WHOLE, WILL CONTINUE TO FALL. IN 2014 AND 2015, DAIRY CATTLE ACCOUNTED FOR 24 PERCENT OF ALL COWS--AN ALL TIME RECORD HIGH. THAT'S DOWN THIS YEAR AND HE EXPECTS THE TREND TO CONTINUE.
EGG PRODUCERS COULD FACE JAIL TIME AFTER SALMONELLA OUTBREAK:
AN IOWA BASED EGG PRODUCTION COMPANY THAT'S BLAMED FOR A MASSIVE SALMONELLA OUTBREAK 6 YEARS AGO IS STILL UNDER FIRE. AND NOW THE TWO OWNERS COULD FACE JAIL TIME. IN A 2 TO 1 DECISION, A CICRUIT COURT IN IOWA, BACKED A PREVIOUS RULING THAT SAYS JACK DECOSTER AND HIS SON PETER SHOULD SERVE A PRISON SENTENCE FOR MISDEMEANOR FOOD SAFETY VIOLATIONS. THE CASE CLAIMS THE DECOSTERS WERE AWARE OF UNSANITARY CONDITIONS AT THEIR IOWA FARMS, THAT LED TO SOME 56 THOUSAND PEOPLE GETTING ILL. THE JUDGE SAYS THE DECOSTERS DISREGARDED BASIC FOOD SAFETY STANDARDS FOR YEARS AND DESERVED JAIL TIME.
CROP COMMENTS:
STORMS ARE ROLLING ACROSS THE NATION. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS AN UPDATE ON CROP CONDITIONS FROM THOSE IN THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. MIKE. GOOD MORNING, CLINTON. LET'S START OFF IN THE SHOW-ME STATE... ELI BACHMAN SENDING US THE REMAINS OF A WIND STORM IN NORTH WEST MISSOURI THIS WEEK. THIS FIELD WAS CLOSE TO TASSELING.
TEASE:
WHEN AGDAY CONTINUES ON THIS FRIDAY MORNING OUR PARTNERS AT PROFARMER LOOK AT THE MARKET SLUMP WE FELT THIS WEEK. AS IT ALL WEATHER DRIVEN? STICK AROUND FOR THEIR ANSWER. PLUS, WE VISIT A HISTORIC MILL IN OHIO WHICH REALLY KNOWS HOW TO THROW A PARTY DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. AND FIND OUT HOW THIS "UNDERWATER" WEED MAY BE CRITICAL IN PROTECTING SHELLFISH FROM AN INVISIBLE INVADER.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS IT'S A MOSTLY DOWN DAY IN THE GRAIN MARKETS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOYBEANS. LET'S SEE HOW THINGS FINISHED IN CHICAGO. I WANT TO START LOOKING AT SOME TECHNICAL LEVELS WERE LOOKING. WE'LL START WITH THE CORN CONTRACT. LOOKING AT DECEMBER THREE FORTY SIX TO THREE FORTY EIGHT HAS BEEN A LONG TERM SUPPORT POCKET FOR US GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO LAST MAY. NOT ONLY HAS THAT BEEN THE KEY SUPPORT POCKET BUT EVERY TIME THAT IT HAS HELD, WHICH IS ABOUT FIVE PREVIOUS TIMES OVER LAST YEAR, WE HAD AN RSI -"RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX" -AROUND THIRTY WHICH IS WHERE WE'RE AT IT AGAIN. THIS HAS BEEN OLIVER SLOUP WITH I-I TRADER COMING TO YOU FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME.
PROFARMER:
GRAIN MARKETS HAVE HAD A PRETTY ROUGH WEEK. BUT CAN IT ALL BE BLAMED ON THE WEATHER? CHIP FLORY AND BRIAN GRETE TAKE A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS WEEK'S PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING. WELL BRIAN, COMING ON THE FOURTH OF JULY, WE UNFORTUNATELY HAD A TREND ACCELERATION.AND IN SOYBEANS, YOU COULD EVEN CALL IT A TREND REVERSAL BECAUSE WE WERE THERE HOLDING UP FAIRLY STEADY BUT BOY ONCE JULY FIFTH SHOWED UP, NEAR LIMIT DOWN, LIMIT DOWN SOYBEAN MEAL, FOLLOW THROUGH SELLING AT MIDWEEK AND THE MARKET IS MOVING SO FAST IT'S HARD TO SAY THAT THAT'S ALL THE WEATHER'S FAULT IS IT? WELL, YOU KNOW IT'S KIND OF PERFECT STORM, IT'S WEATHER, THE DRIER AREAS, MANY OF THE DRY AREAS, NOT ALL OF THEM GOT RAINS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. YOU KNOW YOU'VE GOT THE FUNDS THAT WERE HAVE A REALLY LONG NOW IN FULL LIQUIDATION MODE RUNNING FOR THE EXITS AS FAST AS THEY CAN IT'S THE TIME OF YEAR THAT ALL COMES INTO PLAY.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE AS WE LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP HERE, LOOKS LIKE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COULD GET SOME PRETTY HEAVY SHOWERS. WE HAVEN'T SEEN SYSTEMS COMING IN LIKE THIS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND SO THAT'S SOME GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE FOLKS A LITTLE RAIN. AND YOU CAN SEE THERE'S ACTUALLY TWO SYSTEMS OUT THERE ONE RIGHT AFTER THE OTHERS SO TWO OR THREE DAYS WORTH OF SHOWERS IT LOOKS LIKE COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EVEN SOME IN THE PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WE ALSO HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY, NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. PUEBLO, COLORADO, FIRST OF ALL PARTLY SUNNY AND HOT. AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN SOME AREAS, HIGH OF NINETY FIVE. SPRINGFIELD, ILLINOIS, PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGH OF EIGHTY SEVEN. AND FINALLY SOUTHBURY, MARYLAND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OF HOT AND HUMID HIGH NINETY FIVE.
TEASE:
UP NEXT, A GREAT AMERICAN BARN THAT REALLY KNOWS HOW TO CELEBRATE THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. AND IF YOU'RE LOOKING TO DIVERSIFY YOUR FARM -HAVE YOU EVER CONSIDERED SEAWEED?
WE'LL EXPLAIN WHY IT'S BECOMING A VALUABLE CROP.
GREAT AMERICAN BARN:
TODAY'S GREAT AMERICAN BARN IS NOT A BARN. BUT IT'S STILL AN INTEGRAL PART OF AMERICA'S FARMING HERITAGE. THIS IS CLIFTON MILL, LOCATED IN THE TINY HAMLET OF CLIFTON, OHIO. IT'S JUST EAST OF THE CITY OF DAYTON. CLIFTON MILL WAS FIRST ESTABLISHED IN 18-OH-TWO. IT'S ONE OF THE FEW REMAINING WATER-POWERED GRIST MILLS IN THE COUNTRY. FOR GENERATIONS, AREA FARMERS BROUGHT WHEAT AND CORN TO BE GROUND HERE. THEY NO LONGER GRIND GRAIN AT THE MILL, BUT THEY STILL BAG SOME OF THEIR FLOUR. FOR A COUPLE OF BUCKS YOU CAN STILL SEE THE BELT-DRIVES AND BUCKET ELEVATOR IN OPERATION.
TEASE:
THE WORD SEAWEED HAS A NEGATIVE CONNOTATION, ESPECIALLY IF IT CLOGSYOUR BOAT ENGINE. BUT CALL IT KELP, AND YOU MAY HAVE A TOOL TO HELP PRESERVE MARINE LIFE. DETAILS WHEN WE COME BACK.
IN THE COUNTRY:
LOOKING TO DIVERSIFY YOUR FARMING OPERATION? HOW ABOUT GROWING KELP? PILOT PROJECTS IN WASHINGTON STATE AND MAINE ARE STUDYING WHETHER KELP -WHICH TAKES UP CARBON DIOXIDE AS IT GROWS -CAN CHANGE SEAWATER CHEMISTRY. MARINE BIOLOGISTS ARE WORRIED ABOUT OCEANS ABSORBING TOO MUCH CARBON DIOXIDE WHICH THREATENS MARINE LIFE. BONNIE GHOSH HAS THE STORY.  LOW TIDE IN WASHINGTON STATE'S PUGET SOUND…IDEAL TIME TO SET UP AN EXPERIMENT…"THIS IS WHERE THEY LIKE TO LIVE."  BONNY GHOSH, ASSOCIATED PRESS.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. MONDAY ON AGDAY WE START A NEW WEEK WITH MACHINERY PETE. HE SHARES HIS UNIQUE INSIGHT TO THE USED EQUIPMENT MARKET. WE'LL ALSO HAVE A LOOK AHEAD IN FARM COUNTRY WEATHER. FOR NEWS THAT MATTERS -TUNE IN WEEKDAYS FOR AGDAY.

 

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