AgDay Daily Recap -April 14, 2016

April 14, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
APRIL 14, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -DAIRY GROUPS PRESS CONGRESS TO PASS THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP. NORTH DAKOTA CATTLE PRODUCERS BENEFITTING FROM MILD WEATHER. IN ANALYSIS-ARE EXPORTS PICKING UP IN THE HOG MARKET? WELL OUR EXPORTS ARE PICKING UP THE PACE YOU KNOW BUT THEY NEED TO REALLY. THE STERLING PROFIT TRACKER REMAINS IN THE RED. AND A FOOD-TRUCK YOUR PET WILL ENJOY.
AG GROUPS SAY TPP IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO BOOST INCOMES:
GOOD MORNING I'M BETSY JIBBEN. CLINTON IS ON ASSIGNMENT. DOZENS OF THE MAJOR AG GROUPS ARE URGING CONGRESS TO GET BEHIND THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP TRADE DEAL,,,,AND GET IT DONE. A COALITION OF AG TRADE GROUPS AND FOOD COMPANIES SENT A LETTER TO CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS THIS WEEK, URGING LAWMAKERS TO PASS THE T-P-P DURING THIS LEGISLATIVE SESSION.
N-C-B-A IS ONE OF THE LEAD GROUPS ON THE ENDEAVOR. THE LETTER SAYS WITH U-S FARM INCOMES AT THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2002, THE "COSTS OF INACTION ARE TOO HIGH TO IGNORE".
DAIRY GETS ON BOARD WITH TPP:
MEANWHILE THE U-S DAIRY LOBBY IS NOW JOINING THE T-P-P EFFORT. LAST THURSDAY THE U-S DAIRY EXPORT COUNCIL VOTED TO SUPPORT THE TRADE PACT WITH 11 PACIFIC RIM NATIONS.
U-S-D-E-C SAYS THE DEAL HAS SOME SHORTCOMINGS, BUT THE BENEFITS OUTWEIGH THE DOWNSIDE. BUT THE DAIRY GROUP SAYS COMPLIANCE MUST BE ENFORCED. THE NATIONAL MILK PRODUCER FEDERATION ALSO CAME OUT IN FAVOR OF T-P-P. THE FEDERATION SAYS THE DEAL WOULD BE A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY POSITIVE FOR U-S DAIRY MARKETS. THE SENIOR DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH FOR THE FEDERATION SAYS TRADE DEALS, LIKE THE T-P-P, OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY EVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.
EXPORT GROWTH ONE EXPECTED BENEFIT OF TPP:
"NATIONAL MILK AND USDEC OUR BOARD OF DIRECTORS CAME OUT AND SAID TPP WILL BE NEUTRAL AND SLIGHTLY POSTIVE FOR DAIRY. NOW AS THROWING AROUND SPEC NUMBERS WE REFRAINED FROM DOING THAT, IN LARGE PARTS BECAUSE OF SO MANY UNCERTAIN ELEMENTS, SUCH AS EXCHANGE RATES OR WHERE GLOBAL ECONOMY IS HEADED. THOSE THINGS REALLY DRIVE DAIRY CONSUMPTION. SO THOSE WILL BE KEY. THE TRADE AGREEMENT PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY, WHEN THOSE CONDITIONS ALIGN, TO CONTINUE AND GROW OUR EXPORT POSITION." NEWTON SAYS A WEAKER DOLLAR IMPROVES U-S COMPETITIVE POSITION AS AN EXPORTER.
MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM TO MAKE LIFE A LITTLE EASIER FOR DAIRY FARMS:
IN NEWS FROM THE FARM JOURNAL MILK TEAM, DAIRY FARMS PARTICIPATING IN THE MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM GAINED SOME FLEXIBILITY.  AGRICULTURE SECRETARY TOM VILSACK ANNOUNCED PRODUCERS –WHO PARTICIPATE IN M-P-P -WILL BE ABLE TO UPDATE THEIR PRODUCTION HISTORY WHEN AN ELIGIBLE FAMILY MEMBERS JOINS THE OPERATION. THIS IS KEY BECAUSE IT HELPS DETERMINE PAYMENT AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PROGRAM. YOUR LOCAL F-S-A OFFICE WILL HAVE DETAILS.
CORN BELT WARMS UP:
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT LATE THIS WEEK. THAT WILL HELP PUSH SOIL TEMPERATURES HIGHER....AND GET SOME FARMERS IN THE FIELD. OF THE FIVE STATES WE FOLLOW ALONG THE I-80 PLANTING TOUR, ONLY ILLINOIS HAD SOME CORN PLANTED AS OF MONDAY.
PLANTING TO BEGIN AS SOON AS IT DRIES OUT:
IT'S TWO PERCENT. FOUR POINTS BEHIND AVERAGE. IOWA, INDIANA, NEBRASKA AND OHIO ALL REPORTING "HASH" TAGS. OF COURSE, THOSE RESULTS ARE BASED ON LAST WEEK'S OBSERVATIONS. THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE IS JUST ONE PERCENT. MATT ROBERTS FROM OHIO STATE SAYS GRAIN MARKETS ARE NOW ALL ABOUT THE WEATHER. "WE HAVE SOIL THAT'S OVERALL IN GOOD CONDITION. EVERYTHING IS READY WITH THOSE WARM DAYS IN MARCH AND FEBRUARY. SOIL TEMPS ARE PRETTY SOLID. SO AS SOON AS IT DRIES OUT WE'RE GOING TO SEE PLANTERS ROLLING.
EL NINO GIVES GRAIN FARMERS A HEAD START TO PLANTING:
MEANWHILE GRAIN FARMERS ARE ALSO TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE EL NINO PATTERN AND ARE GETTING A HEAD START ON SPRING SEEDING. CLIFF NAYLOR FROM AFFILIATE KFYR REPORTS.
MILD WINTER MAKES FOR EASY CALVING SEASON:
RICHARD FAST DIDN'T RUN INTO ANY COMPLICATIONS THIS CALVING SEASON. HE'S RAISED BLACK ANGUS CATTLE FOR OVER 30 YEARS AND THIS PAST WINTER WAS ONE OF THE EASIEST HE CAN REMEMBER. "2006 WAS PRETTY EASY, BUT THEN WE HAD A TERRIBLE DROUGHT TO GO WITH IT, SO THIS ONES BEEN PRETTY GOOD, NOT BAD AT ALL, WE HAVEN'T HAD ANY FATALITIES DO TO THE WEATHER AT ALL." FAST STARTED CALVING THE END OF JANUARY AND MILD TEMPERATURES AND A LACK OF SNOW MADE DELIVERING EASY FOR HIS COWS. "90% OF OUR CALVES WERE BORN OUTSIDE THIS YEAR, WE HAD VERY FEW WE HAD TO TAKE INTO THE BARN TO WARM UP, THEY ALL GOT STARTED ON THEIR OWN AND TOOK RIGHT OFF." THE MILD WINTER HAS ALLOWED FARMERS TO GET A HEAD START ON FIELD WORK.
PROSPECTIVE PLANTING REPORT:
I'M CLIFF NAYLOR REPORTING FOR AGDAY. USDA'S PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS REPORT FOR NORTH DAKOTA SHOWS NO CHANGE IN CORN PLANTINGS THIS YEAR. ALL WHEAT IS DOWN 12-PERCENT. THAT'S ABOUT A MILLION ACRES IN NORTH DAKOTA. OATS ARE UP AND BARLEY IS DOWN.
CROP COMMENTS:
CROP COMMENTS IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY RESICORE HERBICIDE FROM DOW AGROSCIENCES.  LET'S CHECK IN WITH MIKE HOFFMAN FOR THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. MIKE. GOOD MORNING, BETSY. LET'S START OFF NEAR WATERLOO, IOWA. BRENT JUDISCH SAYS THIS IS THE FIRST OF MANY SUNSETS FROM THE TRACTOR SEAT! HE STARTED PLANTING THIS WEEK. USDA SAYS HARDLY ANY CORN WAS PLANTED IN THE STATE LAST WEEK. MOVING OVER TO NORTHWEST INDIANA, BRIAN ROBERTS SAYS HE'S INSTALLING SOME IRRIGATION PIPE THIS WEEK.
TEASE:
AS WE START ANOTHER QUARTER, HOW MUCH DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL ARE ANALYSTS EXPECTING IN THE HOG MARKET?-AND COULD THAT DECREASE IN Q-4? TYNE MORGAN DIGS IN. AND ONE CITY IS OFFERING A NEW WAY TO 'PAMPER YOUR PUP.' THAT STORY IN THE COUNTRY.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
LET'S SEE HOW THE MARKETS CLOSED ON WEDNESDAY. FOR THAT, WE HEAD TO THE CME FLOOR IN CHICAGO. WEDNESDAY'S GRAIN WE SEE HIGHER PRICES AND IT'S INTERESTING IS THAT WE SEE FROM YESTERDAY'S CLOSE WHEN WE HAD A SPIKE RALLY AT THE END OF THE DAY. AND TODAY'S PRETTY NICE RALLY, IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE WHY WE'RE GOING UP TO THESE LEVELS. SO TO ME IT HAS TO BE MORE OF A SHORT SQUEEZE THAN ANY OTHER REASON. WE HAVE NO REAL DATA, WE GOT A MUCH STRONGER DOLLAR TODAY. AND ALL OF A SUDDEN IT'S TIME TO RUN UP. SO TO ME, THIS IS PURELY A SHORT SQUEEZE, ALTHOUGH I REMAIN FRIENDLY TO THIS SPACE, I DON'T THINK THIS IS THE RIGHT LEVEL IN WHICH YOU SHOULD BE MOVING UP FROM, ESPECIALLY BEANS. I'M TODD HORWITZ, BUBBA TRADING DOT COM, COMING TO YOU FROM THE CME GROUP FLOOR IN CHICAGO.
PITCH TO ANALYSIS:
IN ANALYSIS-WE'RE FOCUSING ON PORK PRODUCTION. HOW IMPORTANT IS DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION? AND WHERE ARE EXPORTS HEADED? TYNE MORGAN HAS THAT CONVERSATION THIS MORNING.
AGRIBUSINESS:
WELCOME BACK WE'RE HERE NOW WITH DON ROOSE OF US COMMODITIES DON LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS HOG MARKET WE'VE HEARD RUMORS THAT POSSIBLY WE COULD GET AN INCREASE OF BUYS FROM CHINA CONSIDERING THE TIE WITH SMITHFIELD HAVE WE SEEN AN INCREASE IN EXPORTS AT THIS TIME?>> WELL OUR EXPORTS ARE PICKING UP THE PACE YOU KNOW BUT THEY NEED TO REALLY WE WERE DOWN TO A LOW LEVEL 18 PERCENT  OF OUR TOTAL PRODUCTION VERSUS YOU KNOW A FEW YEARS BACK WE WERE OVER 24 PERCENT  OF OUR TOTAL PRODUCTION SO IT'S PICKING UP BUT IT'S REALLY ALL ABOUT THE DOMESTIC MARKET TIME REALLY WHEN YOU HAVE THE SUPPLIES THAT YOU HAVE TO MOVE OFF THE MARKETPLACE I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE HOG MARKET OVERALL THERE'S JUST A LOT OF MEAT PROTEIN THAT'S GOING TO COME AT US HERE THIS NEXT YEAR SO HOGS WE THINK THE JUNE HOGS ARE IN A TRADING RANGE BETWEEN 77 AND 83 YOU KNOW THE PROBABLY THE JULY IS PROBABLY NOT THAT FAR OFF OF IT A YEAR AGO REMEMBER WE HAD THE SAME SUPPLIES IN JUNE HOGS WENT OFF THE BOARD 81.59 JULY HOGS 80.50 BUT DECEMBER HOGS WENT OFF THE BOARD AT 85.50 SO THERE'S MORE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL IN THE FOURTH QUARTER WE THINK AND WE THINK RISK MANAGEMENT IS KEY.>>
TEASE:
WELL YOU GOT YOUR SPRING RALLY IN THE BEAN MARKET. NOW WHAT DO YOU DO WITH IT? WE'LL TALK ABOUT IT IN THE PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING, FRIDAY ON AGDAY.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, IS SPRING FINALLY HERE TEMPERATURE-WISE IN THE CORN BELT AND WILL THIS WARM-UP LAST? YEAH, AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A PROLONG WEEK AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE A SLOW MOVER OUT WEST.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL, ALAMOGORDO, NEW MEXICO, GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TODAY. THE HIGH AROUND 80 DEGREES. BEMIDJI, MINNESOTA, PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER. THE HIGH IS ALL THE WAY TO 70. AND HAMPTON, VIRGINIA IS PARTLY SUNNY, BREEZY, BUT COOL. THE HIGH IS AROUND 57. THE STERLING PROFIT TRACTER IS BLEEDING DEEPER INTO THE RED. WE TAKE A LOOK AFTER THE BREAK. AND A NEW SPIN TO FOOD TRUCKS CATERING TO YOUR 4-LEGGED FRIENDS.
CATTLE FEEDERS PRICES FALL:
 LOSSES AT THE NATION'S FEEDYARD CONTINUE DEEPER IN THE RED. OUR REPORTING PARTNERS AT DROVERS SAY AVERAGE CATTLE FEEDING LOSSES FELL ABOUT 10 DOLLARS, LEAVING MANAGERS WITH LOSSES AT 186 DOLLARS PER HEAD. CLOSEOUTS WERE 19 DOLLARS A HEAD LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. BEEF PACKER MARGINS DECLINED $34 PER HEAD, EARNING PROFITS OF $26 PER ANIMAL. CATTLE FEEDERS EXPECTED MARGINS TO BE BETTER DUE TO A SPRING RALLY.
PRODUCTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER 2016:
BUT THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN. USDA HAS REVISED IT'S 2016 BEEF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS THIS WEEK. THE DEPARTMENT EXPECTS BEEF PRODUCTION TO TOTAL 24.8 BILLION POUNDS THIS YEAR. THAT IS ALMOST A 5 PERCENT INCREASE OVER LAST YEAR. DROVERS EDITOR GREG HENDERSON SAYS THAT'S DUE TO AN INCREASE OF CATTLE COMING TO MARKET AND HEAVIER CARCASS WEIGHTS.
TEASE:
UP NEXT, A FOOD TRUCK FOR FOODIES AND PETS ALIKE.


IN THE COUNTRY:
A NEW FOOD TRUCK IN SEATTLE IS CATERING TO DOGS. THE SEATTLE BARK-ERY IS CAPITALIZING ON THE CITY'S LOVE OF DOGS AND WELL-ESTABLISHED FOOD TRUCK SCENE BY OFFERING HOMEMADE TREATS FOR CANINES. EMILY ROSEMAN HAS OUR STORY ON FOODIES AND FIDO. AIR FRIED CHICKEN FEET…DUCK NECK…NOT YOUR TYPICAL FOOD TRUCK OFFERINGS. THEN AGAIN... THE CLIENTAL HAS QUITE A DISCERNING NOSE. THE SEATTLE BARKERY IS A FOOD TRUCK WHERE THE MAIN CUSTOMERS OFTEN WOLF DOWN TREATS
 CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR TYNE MORGAN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M BETSY JIBBEN. FRIDAY ON AGDAY -THE BIOTECH LABELING DEBATE CONTINUES IN WASHINGTON, FIND OUT WHAT THE OUTCOME COULD MEAN OUT ON THE FARM. WELL YOU GOT YOUR SPRING RALLY IN THE BEAN MARKET. NOW WHAT DO YOU DO WITH IT? WE'LL TALK ABOUT IT IN THE PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING, FRIDAY ON AGDAY).

 

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