AgDay Daily Recap -April 4, 2016

April 4, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
MARCH 4, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -ANOTHER DRAMATIC DROP IN WHEAT ACRES IS EXPECTED. WHAT CAN THE INDSTRY DO TO TURN THE TREND AROUND? IN AGRIBUISINESS..PLANTING INTENTIONS ARE OUT...WHAT NOW? YEA IT'S KIND OF LIKE CHRISTMAS WHEN YOU'RE EXPECTING A PONY AND YOU OPEN IT UP AND YOU GET SOCKS. MACHINERY PETE SAYS MARCH EQUIPMENT AUCTIONS OFFERED SURPRISING PRICE STRENGTH. AND TAKE A TASTE AT THE WISCONSIN GRILLED CHEESE COOKOFF.
USDA FORECASTS NINE PERCENT DROP IN WHEAT ACRES:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. WITH SAGGING PRICES AND ABUNDANT GLOBAL STOCKS, U-S WHEAT GROWERS ARE SHYING AWAY FROM PLANTING WHEAT...AND IT APPEARS THEY'RE SHYING AWAY IN DROVES. USDA'S PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS FORECAST PUTS ALL-WHEAT ACRES AT 49POINT-SIX MILLION ACRES. THAT'S A NINE PERCENT DROP-OFF FROM LAST YEAR. THIS GRAPH SHOWS THE GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND FOR WHEAT SEEDINGS.  TO PUT IT INTO PERSPECTIVE, THE U-S HAS NOT PLANTED BELOW 50 MILLION  WHEAT ACRES IN OVER FOUR DECADES.
LOWEST WHEAT ACRES PLANTED SINCE 1970:
YOU HAVE TO GO BACK TO 1970-71 WHEN THE U-S PLANTED 48-POINT-SEVEN MILLION. BREAKING IT DOWN -WINTER WHEAT IS DOWN EIGHT PERCENT, COMING IN AT  JUST OVER 36-MILLION ACRES. BY STATE KANSAS IS DOWN 700-THOUSAND. OKLAHOMA 300-THOUSAND AND TEXAS -ONE MILLION FEWER WINTER WHEAT ACRES.
WHEAT CHALLENGES:
SPRING WHEAT ALSO HAS DEEP DECLINES. THE CHALLENGE ISN'T LOST ON THE WHEAT INDUSTRY. AND ITS ALREADY TAKING STEPS TO REPLANT IT'S FUTURE IN HOPES OF BUILDING FARMER INTEREST. "I DECIDED I BETTER DIG IT UP. PRICES FOR HAY MAY BE DOWN, BUT EVEN SO THIS FORMER WHEAT GROWER PRESIDENT SAYS REPLACING THOSE ACRES WITH WHEAT ISN'T A GIVEN.
FARMERS MUST PLANT WHAT’S PROFITABLE:
HE'S NOT ALONE. MANY WHEAT ANALYSTS...SAY PUTTING SEED IN THE GROUND IN 2016...TAKES A SHARP PENCIL. RIGHT NOW WE'VE GOT MARKET ANALYSTS SAYING WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A NEW NORMAL AROUND 3.75 TO 4.25. I DON'T THINK SO BECAUSE I DON'T THINK NITROGEN AND INPUT COSTS ARE GOING TO COME DOWN SO THAT THE COST OF PRODUCTION IS LESS THAN 3.75 A BUSHEL. RIGHT NOW ANDERSON SEES PRICES LEVELING OUT BETWEEN 5 AND 5-50. WE'RE NOT GOING TO PRODUCE WHEAT IF WE DON'T MAKE A PROFIT DOING IT. PROFITS, PART OF THE REASON SOME WHEAT GROWERS ARE SHIFTING ACRES INTO OTHER CROPS. WE REALLY NEED TO INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY AND PROFITABILITY PER ACRE. WE'RE LOSING ACRES TO OTHER CROPS AND ITS JUST BOTTOM LINE. WE FARMERS ARE GOING TO PLANT WHAT WE CAN MAKE A LIVING AT. ALTHOUGH, NOT EVERYONE IS CONVINCED ACRES WON'T BE THERE...
USDA NUMBERS ARE AFTER ALL JUST A FORECAST:
LOOKING AT USDA NUMBERS AND SOME OF THE PRIVATE NUMBERS, I THINK YOU COULD SEE WHEAT ACRES GO UP. AS THESE PRICES GO DOWN FOR COMMODITIES ACROSS THE BOARD, THAT COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR WHEAT. AGAIN, I COULD BE AN OPTIMIST.
DRIVE TO IMPROVE WHEAT:
THAT OPTIMISM ALSO DRIVING THE COUNTRY'S WHEAT GROWERS TO DO BETTER.... IT CONTINUES BUILD A NEW BUSINESS PLAN FOR THE WHEAT INDUSTRY...FOCUSING ON YIELDS, RESEARCH, TECHNOLOGY AND MARKET DEVELOPMENT. IT'S ALSO ROLLING OUT A NATIONAL WHEAT YIELD CONTEST IN 2016.
COMPANY’S AIM TO HELP FARMERS DRIVE UP WHEAT YIELDS:
 IT REALLY ALLOWS WHEAT FARMERS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TO REALLY COME TOGETHER AND REALLY SHARE THEIR KNOWLEDGE OF WHAT'S WORKING FOR THEM AND WHAT'S SUCCESSFUL FOR THEM.  COMPANY'S LIKE WESTBRED SAY THEY'RE ALSO TRYING TO HELP FARMERS DRIVE UP YIELDS. FROM MICROBIAL SEED TREATMENTS TO OPTIMIZING SEEDING RATES.  SOME OF THOSE PROFITABILITY PROBLEMS MAY BE SOLVED BY CONSUMERS...AND THE GROWING DEMAND FOR ORGANIC PRODUCTS. ARDENT MILLS CEO DAN DYE SAYS CURRENTLY ONLY ONE PERCENT OF U.S. WHEAT ACRES ARE ORGANIC.
FARMERS FOLLOW FINANCIAL SENSE FOR PLANTING:
IN THE MEANTIME, GROWERS LIKE WAYNE ARE GROWING WHAT MAKES FINANCIAL SENSE IN A YEAR WHEN PREFERENCES ARE BEING OVERSHADOWED BY PROFITS. WAYNE STILL PLANS TO PUT IN SPRING WHEAT ACRES. THAT STATE EXPECTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 2016 --UP 20-THOUSAND ACRES. HOWEVER, IN MONTANA THE FORECAST IS FOR 450-THOUSAND FEWER THAN 2015. WHILE NORTH DAKOTA FARMERS EXPECT TO PLANT ONE MILLION FEWER ACRES OF SPRING WHEAT.
BAYER CHALLENGES EPA ON BELT:
THE BAYER COMPANY --IS REQUESTING A HEARING BEFORE AN E-P-A LAW JUDGE REGARDING FLUBENDIAMIDE, OTHERWISE KNOWN AS BELT. BAYER IS ASKING THE JUDGE TO DEFEND ITS REGISTRATIONS OF THE PRODUCT. EPA ASKED BAYER IN JANUARY TO VOLUNTARY CANCEL REGISTRATION OF BELT, AN INSECTICIDE USED ON MORE THAN 200 CROPS INCLUDING FRUITS AND NUTS.  BAYER REFUSED. EPA CLAIMS THE INSECTICIDE HAS UNREASONABLE ADVERSE EFFECTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT. BUT PREVIOUSLY, EPA AND BAYER CONCLUDED BELT DOESN'T HARM FISH.
DICAMBA COULD HELP FARMERS FIGHT WEEDS:
COTTON AND SOYBEAN FARMERS FIGHTING GLYPHOSATE RESISTANT WEEDS COULD BE ANOTHER STEP CLOSER TO HELP. EPA ANNOUNCING TODAY IT’S OPENING UP A 30 DAY COMMENT PERIOD FOR DICAMBA IN CROP USE. . THAT'S THE CHEMISTRY CONTAINING 2-4-D. MONSANTO'S ROUNDUP READY 2 XTEND SOYBEANS, WHICH INCLUDES DICAMA TOLERANCE, ALREADY RECEIVED APPROVAL, BUT UNTIL DICAMBA GETS THE GREEN LIGHT, FARMERS CAN'T APPLY IT OVER THE TOP. MONSANTO SAYS IF APPROVED, THE DICAMBA HERBICIDE CAN ALSO BE USED WITH BOLLGARD 2 EXTEND FLEX COTTON.

KANSAS HIT BY LARGEST GRASS FIRES IN STATE’S HISTORY:
IN KANSAS, FOLKS FROM ALL OVER THE STATE ARE PITCHING IN TO HELP FARMERS AND RANCHERS IMPACTED BY THE RECENT GRASS FIRES. NOW THE LARGEST IN THE STATE'S HISTORY, THE ANDERSON CREEK FIRE NEAR MEDICINE LODGE BURNED MORE THAN 600 SQUARE MILES IN PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. LIVESTOCK OWNERS ARE STILL SEEING THE EFFECTS OF THE BLAZE SHOW UP IN THEIR HERDS. "THERE'S RANCHERS OUT THERE STILL TRYING TO DECIDE IF WE HAVE COWS ALIVE YET. WE JUST HAVEN'T FOUND THEM. HOW MANY COWS HAVE WE LOST.
IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE ANDERSON CREEK FIRE:
THINGS THEY'RE SEEING SHORT TERM. THEY'RE SEEING COWS WITH BURNED FEET. CORONARY BANDS ARE BURNED TO THE POINT THAT SOME OF THE COWS ARE STARTING TO LOSE HOOF WALL. THE UDDERS ARE BURNED. SO FAR, IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE WITH BURNED UDDERS ARE STILL PRODUCING ENOUGH MILK TO KEEP THE CALVES ALIVE. THE PEOPLE DOWN WIND FROM THE FIRE ARE THE ONES THAT ARE REPORTING MOST OF THE RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS RIGHT NOW.
CROP COMMENTS:
 NOW LET'S CHECK IN WITH MIKE HOFFMAN FOR THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. MIKE. GOOD MORNING, CLINTON. WE HAVE SOME CROP COMMENTS FROM THE ARKANSAS DELTA WHICH WAS INUNDATED WITH HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE WEATHER LAST WEEK. SOME RICE FIELDS IN JACKSON COUNTY WERE WASHEDOUT. A U-OF-A EXTENSION AGENT SAID LEVEES SEEDED WITH RICE WILL NEED TO BE RE-PULLED AND RE-SEEDED. THAT COULD PUT THE CROP OUT OF SYNC WITH THE REST OF THE RICE IN THE FIELD. AND FROM STILLWATER, OKLAHOMA, DAVE DEKEN SHARED THIS GREAT SHOT AS THE SUN IS RISING OVER A PICTURESQUE CANOLA CROP. THIS FIELD IS NEAR OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY -AND THAT'S FOR YOU, CLINTON. WHILE SOME FARMERS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF PLANTING, OTHERS ARE CALVING.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, ANGIE SETZER OF CITIZEN'S GRAIN JOINS TO DISCUSS  MARKETS AND WHAT TO DO NOW THAT USDA'S ACREAGE NUMBERS ARE OUT. HOW DID TRACTORS SELL LAST WEEK AT AUCTION? ALL I CAN SAY IS: WOW. STICK AROUND AND I WILL TELL YOU ABOUT IT. AUCTION PRICES REMAIN VERY STRONG, SURPRISINGLY STRONG RIGHT THROUGH THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH. AND SO, YOU THINK YOU MAKE A PRETTY GOOD GRILLED CHEESE SANDWICH? HOW'D YOU LIKE TO TEST YOUR SKILLS AGAINST CHEFS FROM WISCONSIN?
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS LETS SEE HOW MARKETS ENDED THE WEEK IN CHICAGO.  WE HEAD TO THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO.
AGRIBUSINESS:
 ANGIE SETZER OF CITIZENS GRAIN OUR GUEST TODAY. ANGIE LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT REPORT. OBVIOUSLY IT CAME OUT LAST WEEK. I THINK WE'VE BEEN BUILDING UP FOR THIS THING SINCE JANUARY. THE QUESTION IS: WHAT'S NOW?  YEAH, IT'S KIND OF LIKE CHRISTMAS. YOU'RE EXPECTING A PONY AND YOU OPEN IT UP AND YOU GET SOCKS. OR MAYBE A TOOTHBRUSH. I DON'T KNOW. YEAH, REALLY RIGHT NOW IS FIRST TAKE A DEEP BREATH. THAT'S THE MAIN THING. A LOT OF PEOPLE GET THESE NUMBERS. CORN ACRES WERE A HUGE SURPRISE. I THOUGHT GOING INTO IT, IF WE SAW 92 MILLION ACRES, THAT WOULD BE A BEARISH SURPRISE. WHEN I SAW 93.6 I KEPT REFRESHING MY SCREEN THINKING I WAS LOOKING AT THE WRONG REPORT. SO, I'M RIGHT THERE WITH YOU GUYS IN THE SENSE THAT I'M SHOCKED BY WHAT CAME OUT. THE MAIN THING IS TO REALIZE THAT IT'S OUT. IT IS WHAT IT IS. BUT NOW EVERY MINUTE THAT GOES BY IS ANOTHER MINUTE WE'RE TAKING SOME OF THOSE ACRES OFF FROM CORN AND PUTTING THEM SOMEWHERE ELSE. WE'VE HAD TROUBLE PLANTING THE CROP DOWN SOUTH WITH ALL THAT RAIN. WITH PRICES DOWN A LITTLE BIT, THAT COULD SHIFT SOME PEOPLE'S PERSPECTIVES.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. MIKE HOFFMAN HERE TAKING A LOOK AT THE DROUGHT MONITOR. IF WE GO BACK 4 WEEKS MIKE WE CAN SEE HOW THIS THING HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST LITTLE BIT. RIGHT. IT'S GOING TO TAKE SOME MORE TIME BUT OUT WEST IT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE A LITTLE BIT. BUT WHAT YOU WILL NOTICE AS WE HEAD THROUGH TIME HERE THERE'S 3 WEEKS AGO, WE START TO SEE DRYNESS. OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IT EXPANDS. TWO WEEKS AGO ALSO NORTH DAKOTA HAS EXPANDED A LITTLE BIT. WATCH THAT JUST IN THE LAST WEEK. THAT WHOLE AREA STARTS TO EXPAND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS WELL.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. WE'LL HEAD TO GILLETTE WYOMING FIRST OF ALL. RATHER SUNNY AND MILD TODAY. HIGH OF 65 DEGREES. HENNRETTA, OKLAHOMA SUNNY AND VERY NICE. HIGH OF 80. AND FINALLY CLARKSBERG, WEST VIRGINIA CLOUDY WITH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AROUND AFTERNOON HIGH AROUND 59 DEGREES.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, GREG PETERSON JOINS US WITH TRENDS FROM THE ROAD. HE SAYS MARCH AUCTIONS WERE INTERETSING THIS YEAR. AND COOKS PREPARE TO BATTLE FOR BRAGGING RIGHTS IN THE DAIRY STATE. DETAILS AS WE HEAD IN THE COUNTRY.
MACHINERY PETE:
CHEVRON DELO -LET'S GO FURTHER. MACHINERY PETE HAS BEEN ON THE ROAD AS OF LATE.HE SAYS AUCTION PRICES IN MARCH WERE SURPRISING. HERE'S GREG TO EXPLAIN. NOW, LAST WEEK, I COVERED AN ABSOLUTE DEALER AUCTION IN CENTRAL IOWA  ON TUESDAY AND MY GENERAL TAKE AWAY: STUFF SOLD AT OR ABOVE THE EXPECTED SALE PRICE, EXCEPT FOR TILLAGE THAT WAS A LITTLE BIT SOFT. NOW THE SAME DAY LAST TUESDAY, FARM AUCTION OUT IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, THIS 2015, JOHN DEERE 96 20 R, 4-WHEEL DRIVE, ONLY 57 HOURS ON IT, SO FOR $340,000. NOW, THAT IS DOWN FROM RETAIL, BUT THAT $340,000 IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN I THOUGHT. YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT IS HARD CASH AT THE AUCTION SALE PRICE, VERY STRONG.
IN THE COUNTRY:
 THERE'S NOTHING LIKE A GOOD OLE' GRILLED CHEESE SANDWICH TO CURE WHAT AILS YA. AND IN THE LAND OF CHEESE, YOU CAN BET A IT'S MORE THAN TWO PIECES OF BREAD AND A SLICE OF VELVEETA.
IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS, CHEFS, COOKS AND HOME-MAKERS WILL BATTLE IT OUT FOR BRAGGING RIGHTS AT THE 5TH ANNUAL WISCONSIN GRILLED CHEESE CHAMPIONSHIPS IN DODGEVILLE, WISCONSIN. THE COMPETITION IS DIVIDED INTO FOUR CATEGORIES; CLASSIC-WHICH IS A SANDWICH WITH JUST WISCONSIN CHEESE. CLASSIC PLUS ONE-WHICH IS CHEESE PLUS ONE INGREDIENT. CLASSIC PLUS EXTRAS-WHICH IS CHEESE AND UNLIMITED INGREDIENTS, AND CLASSIC DESSERT. ALL SANDWICHES MUST CONTAIN AT LEAST 60-PERCENT WISCONSIN CHEESE.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND ALL OF US AT AGDAY. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY IN FARM COUNTRY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. TUESDAY ON AGDAY -THE HOG MARKET IS THE ONLY BULL MARKET IN THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR RIGHT NOW. AND WE VISIT A HIGH SCHOOL WITH SUCH A UNIQUE CLASS, THERE'S A WAITING LIST TO GET IN. WHAT'S THE DRAW? SET YOUR ALARM EACH MORNING WITH  AGDAY.

 

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