AgDay Daily Recap -Aug, 10, 2016

August 10, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
AUG. 10, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -A PREVIEW OF USDA'S UPCOMING REPORTS. IN AGRIBUSINESS...THE IMPACT OF A STRONG U.S. DOLLAR. WHEN YOU HAVE LARGE INVENTORIES A BIG DOLLAR IS REALLY BAD. THE PACKER TV LOOKS AT NEW RESEARCH TO SAVE GROWERS MONEY. AND THESE HISTORIC AGRARIAN STRUCTURES IN BOSNIA ARE OLDER THAN THE UNITED STATES AND NOW BEING RESTORED FOR A NEW GENERATION.
USDA REPORT MUCH ANTICIPATED:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. JUST A COUPLE MORE DAYS UNTIL USDA RELEASES IT'S LATEST SURVEY BASED YIELD ESTIMATES FOR AMERICA'S MAJOR GRAINS. AND TRADERS ARE ALREADY ROLLING OUT THEIR BEST GUESSES. A COMPILATION OF ESTIMATES IS OUT AND TRADERS EXPECT USDA TO RAISE IT'S JULY FORECAST. THE TRADES AVERAGE GUESS ON CORN IS 14 POINT 75 BILLION BUSHELS WITH AN AVERAGE YIELD OF 170 POINT 6. THAT'S 2 AND A HALF BUSHELS HIGHER THAN USDA'S JULY EXPECTATIONS. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION IS FORECAST ON AVERAGE TO BE 3 POINT 94 BILLION BUSHELS WITH YIELDS OF 47 AND HALF BUSHELS PER ACRE. THE ALL WHEAT AVERAGE GUESS IS TWO POINT 27 BILLION BUSHELS UP JUST A BIT FROM USDA'S JULY NUMBERS.
CROP EXPECTATIONS AND THE ROLE OF THE WEATHER:
NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN LOOKS AT EXPECTATIONS AND THE ROLE WEATHER IS PLAYING IN 2016. 2016 HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE FOR MANY POCKETS OF THE MIDWEST. "MICHIGAN IS DRY. WE'RE VERY, VERY DRY,"T-STORM WEATHER METEOROLOGIST, MIKE TANNURA SAYS JUNE WAS ONE OF THE WARMER AND DRIER ON RECORD IN THE U.S. CORN BELT. HE SAYS JULY IS UNOFFICIALLY THE FIFTH WETTEST OF THE LAST 121 YEARS IN THE CORN BELT, WITH JUST OVER 5 AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN. "IF WE WERE TO END UP NUMBER 5 WETTEST, WE'D BE THIS PURPLE LINE HERE.""THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FIVE AND 10 IS RELATIVELY SMALL. IT'S VERY MINOR,"REGARDLESS OF RANK -JULY RAINS PAY BACK IN BUSHELS. REPORTING FOR AGDAY, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.
CROP COMMENTS:
MIKE HOFFMAN HAS AN UPDATE FROM FARMERS OUT IN THE FIELDS FOR THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. MIKE. GOOD MORNING, CLINTON. LET'S START OFF IN NORTH-EAST SOUTH DAKOTA. RYAN WAGNER SAYS HE ANTICIPATES A STATE YIELD DOWN 30 BUSHELS PER ACRE FROM LAST YEAR. HE SAYS LACK OF MOISTURE IS CAUSING SOME STRESS IN HIS AREA. HOWEVER, HE'S BEEN LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET SOME RAINS UNLIKE SOME OTHER POCKETS F THE STATE. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SAYS NEARLY 83 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS ABNORMALLY DRY. 49 PERCENT IS IN A MODERATE DROUGHT.
MOVING OVER FROM GRAINS TO COTTON IN TEXAS!
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, BILL BIEDERMAN JOINS US TO DISCUSS THE VALUE OF THE U.S. AND DOLLAR AND IT'S CORRELATION TO PRICES AND EXPORTS. PLUS THIS CASCADING WATER ONCE HELPED BUILD A THRIVING A COMMUNITY CENTERED AROUND AGRICULTURE MIORE THAN FOUR CENTURIES AGO. NOW IT'S HAVING A RENAISSANCE. DETAILS LATER ON IN THE COUNTRY.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
LETS SEE HOW MARKETS MOVED ON TUESDAY FROM OUR FRIENDS ON THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. LET'S START OFF WITH THE SOYBEANS. CHINA AGAIN HAS BEEN A BIG BUYER LATELY AND THIS IS NINE DAYS IN A ROW THAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS ACTIVITY GOING ON. WE'LL PROBABLY SEE EXTENDED AS WERE SEEING THE U.S. DOLLAR HAS PULLED BACK THIS MORNING. AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO CONTINUE ON A SLOWER DOWNWARD TREND. SO WE SHOULD SEE THE EXPORTS START TO PICK UP ON THE SOYBEANS ALTHOUGH AGAIN THE WEAKER DOLLAR IS REALLY HELPING. ONE OF THE AREAS THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE WORRIED ABOUT WAS THE CROP CONDITIONS. WELL RIGHT NOW WE'VE GOT VERY GOOD RATINGS. WE'RE NOT SEEING A HUGE AMOUNT OF VOLUME BUT WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME PRETTY GOOD TRADING ACTIVITY GOING ON COMING INTO THIS FRIDAY'S USDA REPORT WHICH EVERYBODY'S BEEN WAITING ON. THIS IS GARY KOZLOWSKI WITH FARR FINANCIAL COMING TO YOU FROM THE CME.
AGRIBUSINESS:
HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK IS BILL BIEDERMANN ALLENDALE INCORPORATED. BILL AS WE LOOK AT THE OVERALL MARKET ONE OF THE ISSUES THAT I THINK WE'VE SEEN IS A STRENGTHENING OF THE U.S. DOLLAR IS KINDA WEIGHING ON OUR EXPORTS...DO YOU THINK THAT'S GONNA CONTINUE? YEA IT'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO KEEP PRICES CHEAP BECAUSE YOU KNOW WHEN YOU HAVE LARGE INVENTORIES, A BIG DOLLAR'S REALLY BAD. RIGHT. YOU KNOW. AND WHEN YOU HAVE A REALLY TIGHT INVENTORIES THEN IT DOESN'T MATTER SO MUCH. THE MARKET STILL GOES UP SO WE GOT REALLY LARGE INVENTORIES. AND THE GOVERNMENT OR THE CENTRAL BANKS I SHOULD SAY, ARE REALLY IN A POSITION WHERE -DESPITE WHAT WE HEAR ON TV -THE U.S. ECONOMY IS DOING VERY WELL. WE GOT THE LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT. WE'VE GOT ALMOST A RECORD TOTAL POPULATION EMPLOYED AND OUR HOUSING MARKET IS EXTREMELY TIGHT WHICH MEANS WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO EMPLOY MORE PEOPLE. THAT BRINGS ME TO THE IMMIGRATION WHOLE THING, BUT WE'LL AVOID... AND SO THE BOTTOM LINE IS OUR ECONOMY IS REALLY DOING WELL COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE WORLD.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY, LOOKING AT THE WEATHER MAP HERE, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE SEVERAL LOWS IN THE COUNTRY AND NOTHING MOVING TOO FAST IN ALL HONESTLY. JUST THE ONE IN THE MOVING PLAINES AND THAT WILL CAUSE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS.  MOST OF THOSE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT. IT'LL JUST BE A HIT AND MISS AFTERNOON VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF IT. THAT'S IN A REALLY STICKY HUMID HOT AIR DOWN THERE. NOW OF COURSE A SYSTEM HERE, IF THIS WERE ANOTHER HUNDRED TWO HUNDRED MILES FARTHER SOUTH WE MIGHT BE CONCERNED ABOUT IT BECOMING TROPICAL, BUT IT'S NOT IT HAS A LOT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. IT'S JUST NOT IS JUST NOT GOING TO HAVE THOSE HIGH WINDS AT TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE MIGHT. SO WE ARE GOING TO SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN, HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
LOCAL WEATHER:
 WE'LL HEAD TO REDDING, CALIFORNIA, FIRST OF ALL, HOT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE HIGH IS AROUND 99. ABERDEEN, SOUTH DAKOTA HOT AND HUMID, A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS LIKELY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF NINETY FOUR. AND JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI WARM AND VERY HUMID MAY BE A STORM HIGH EIGHTY NINE.
TEASE:
AND LATER -THIS TRANQUIL SETTING HAS KNOWN ITS SHARE OF STRIFE. NOW EFFORTS ARE UNDERWAY TO RESTORE ITS AGRARIAN PAST.
STUDY FINDS LESS THAN HALF OF AMERICANS USE PHONE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT THEIR FOOD:
A UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA STUDY, ONLY 4 IN 10 AMERICAN'S ARE EITHER VERY LIKELY OR SOMEWHAT LIKELY TO USE THEIR MOBILE PHONE OR A SCANNER TO LEARN ABOUT A FOOD PRODUCT.
IN CALIFORNIA, A NEW STUDY SHOWS THE STATE'S WINE AND WINEGRAPE INDUSTRY CONTRIBUTED $57.6 BILLION DOLLARS TO THE STATE'S ECONOMY AND MORE THAN $114 BILLION TO THE U.S. ECONOMY IN 2015 ALONE. THE STUDY COMMISSIONED BY THE WINE INSTITUTE AND CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF WINEGRAPE GROWERS MEASURES THE SECTOR'S ECONOMIC IMPACT REGARDING EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, TAXES, TOURISM SPENDING AND VISITS.
MAKING THE SWITCH TO PLASTICULTURE:
RESEARCHERS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO SAVE PRODUCE GROWERS MONEY. THE METHOD, SWITCHING PLASTICULTURE RAISED BEDS FROM THE STANDARD 3 FEET WIDE AN 6 TO 8 INCHES HIGH TO A NARROW 1 AND A HALF TO 2 FEED WIDE..AND 10 TO 12 INCHES TALL. RESEARCHERS SAY THE COMPACT BED DESIGN IS STILL CAPABLE OF MATCHING THE YIELDS OF TODAY'S STANDARD BUT REQUIRE FEWER INPUTS. WE ARE USING LESS PESTICIDE FUMIGANT AND INSTEAD OF 2 DRIP TAPES THAT'S HOW WE IRRIGATE THE CROP. YOU'LL BE ABLE TO REDUCE ONE TAPE THAT'S ADDITIONAL COST AND ALSO INCREASES THE WATER AND NUTRIENT USE EFFICIENCY. BECAUSE WATER AND FERTILIZER IS ALSO APPLIED THROUGH THE DRIP TAPE.

TEASE:
NEXT AN ANCIENT ATTRACTION FLOWING WITH A NEW LEASE OF LIFE.
IN THE COUNTRY:
AN OLD TOWN IN CENTRAL BOSNIA IS GIVING A NEW LEASE OF LIFE TO A CENTURIES-OLD ATTRACTION -ITS WATERMILLS. THE MILLS HAVE BEEN GRINDING FARMERS GRAIN LONGER THAN THE U-S HAS BEEN A COUNTRY. THE ROARING WATERFALLS FLOW THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE TOWN OF YAHCHEE (JAJCE). TWENTY SMALL WOODEN HUTS BUILT OVER THE WATER ARE THOUGHT TO BE AT LEAST 450 YEARS OLD. THEY ONCE SERVED AS THE CENTER OF COMMERCE. DURING THE BOSNIAN WAR IN 1992-TO-1995, THE HUTS WERE PARTIALLY DAMAGED AND LEFT TO ROT. BUT NOW THERE'S A NEW EFFORT TO FIX THE HISTORICAL STRUCTURES.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND AL PELL. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. THURSDAY ON AGDAY -THE CORN CROP IS ON ITS WAY... WE'RE NOW IN THE DOLDRUMS OF AUGUST. MIKE NORTH JOINS ME TO DISCUSS GETTING YOUR MIND-SET AS WE PUSH TOWARDS HARVEST. PLUS, WE'LL HAVE THE LATEST ESTIMATES ON PROTEIN EXPORTS. WATCH US WEEKDAYS HERE ON AGDAY.

 

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