AgDay Daily Recap- Aug. 15, 2016

August 15, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
AUGUST 15, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - USDA RELEASES IT'S LATEST PRODUCTION ESTIMATES AND THE NUMBERS ARE RECORD HIGH. IN AGRIBUSINESS...WHAT NOW? THIS BIG OUT OF THE CHUTE, THE FIRST ESTIMATES. IT MAKES ME BELIEVE THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT OF UPSIDE LEFT.  PLUS LOOKING AT FARM INCOME THROUGH THE EYES OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE. MACHINERY PETE PROFILES A PATRIOT AT A FARM AUCTION IN ILLIONIS. AND ARE THESE THE FUTURE DOCTORS OF RURAL AMERICA? 
USDA REVEALS BEARISH GRAIN REPORT:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. A LOT OF RED APPEARED CROSS THE BOARD AS USDA UNVEILED A BIG, BEARISH GRAIN REPORT. NOW, HOW WILL THE MARKET RESPOND AFTER A WEEKEND TO SOAK-IN THE DATA? CORN AND SOYBEAN PRICES TUMBLED FRIDAY -BUT RECOVERED SOMEWHAT AFTER USDA DECLARED THERE'S A RECORD CROP IN THIS COUNTRY. "NASS" SAYS TEN OF THE TOP CORN GROWING STATES ARE ON PACE TO HAVE RECORD YIELDS. ILLINOIS IS ONE OF THEM. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE YIELD HIT TWO HUNDRED BUSHELS AN ACRE. THE CROP ESTIMATE TOPPED MOST ANALYSTS' PRE-REPORT FORECASTS. NOW TO THE NUMBERS -USDA PROJECTING A NATIONAL AVERAGE CORN YIELD OF JUST OVER 175 BUSHELS AN ACRE. THAT'S A SEVEN BUSHEL LEAP FROM JULY. CORN PRODUCTION COMES IN AT 15-POINT-TWO BILLION BUSHELS -11 PERCENT HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR. FOR SOYBEANS, USDA PUTS YIELD AT 48 POINT NINE. AND PRODUCTION COMES IN JUST OVER 4 BILLION BUSHELS, AGAIN A RECORD CROP.
 PROFARMER TAKE:
OUR PARTNERS AT PROFARMER NEWSLETTER SIFTED THROUGH THE DATA. EDITOR BRIAN GRETE JOINS US WITH SOME THOUGHTS ON THE NUMBERS. WE KNOW BIG CROPS GET BIGGER, AT LEAST THAT'S WHAT THE OLD MARKETADAGE IS, SO WE ANTICIPATE THERE MAY BE SOME UPWARD MOVEMENT ON CORN AND SOYBEAN CROPS BY PRINTING NUMBERS THIS BIG OUT OF THE CHUTE, THE FIRST ESTIMATES. IT MAKES ME BELIEVE THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT OF UPSIDE LEFT.AND IF THAT'S THE CASE, THEN WE PROBABLY HAVE AN OPPORTNITY TO PUT IN EARLY SEASONAL LOWS AND LET THE DEMAND START TO WORK. AND SPEAKING OF DEMAND, WE GOT BIGGER USAGE ESTIMATES FOR BOTH CORN AND SOYBEANS IN THIS REPORT. IT JUS WASN'T ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE INCREASE IN SUPPLY. AS A RESULT NEW CROP CARRYOVER ESTIMATES INCREASED.BUT LOOKING FORWARD WE'RE ALREADY SEEING EXPORT DEMAND THAT'S RED HOT ON THE NEW CROP SIDE OF THINGS FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS SO THAT DEMAND IS STARTING TO WORK AT THESE LOWER PRICES. NOW IT'S JUST A MATTER OF TIME WHEN WE PUT IN THE SEASONAL LOWS AND HOW FAR THAT DEMAND CAN PULL US UP IN A SEASONAL PRICE RECOVERY. FOR THE EDITORS OF PROFARMER IN CEDAR FALLS IOWA, I'M BRIAN GRETE.
ENDING STOCKS FROM USDA:
AS FAR AS ENDING STOCKS, USDA PUTS THE 2015-16 MARKETING YEAR ONE POINT 7 BILLION BUSHELS. IN THE 2016-17 MARKETING YEAR, USDA RAISING CORN STOCKS TO 2 POINT 4 BILLION. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST MATT ROBERTS FROM THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY, HAS ALSO BEEN LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS. HE SAYS THERE IS PLENTY TO DIGEST. "NOW WHEN WE LOOK AT THAT, THAT MUCH CORN, IT DOES CHANGE THE DEMAND SIDE. USDA IS EXPECTING EXPORTS TO GO UP NEXT FALL. IT'S EXPECTING ETHANOL TO GO UP, FEED USE, ALL THESE DIFFERENT AREAS. BUT THAT IS DRIVEN BY THE LOWER PRICES THAT ARE EXPECTED." THE ALL WHEAT PRODUCTION FORECAST IS NOW TWO-POINT-THREE BILLION BUSHELS. THREE PERCENT HIGHER THAN LAST MONTH. AVERAGE YIELD IS 52-AND A HALF BUSHELS AN ACRE, UP MORE THAN A BUSHEL.
COTTON PRODUCTION JUMPS:
THERE WAS A BIG JUMP IN COTTON PRODUCTION FROM LAST YEAR. USDA IS FORECASTING NEARLY 16 MILLION BALES, UP 23-PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. NOT ONLY IS THERE MORE ACREAGE THIS YEAR, BUT THE YIELD IS HIGHER. THE AGENCY SAYS FARMERS ARE GETTING 800 POUNDS AN ACRE. THAT'S AN INCREASE OF 34-POUNDS. FRIDAY'S REPORTS DIDN'T HELP SHORE-UP GRAIN PRICES. THOSE SHRINKING PRICES HAVE CRUNCHED CREDIT AND PUSHED LAND VALUES LOWER FOR MORE THAN A YEAR. NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN TALKED WITH THE ECONOMIST BEHIND THE NUMBERS AT THE CHICAGO FEDERAL RESERVE BANK. FARMERS LIKE RANDY MATTHYS ARE AWARE CHALLENGES ARE PRESENT WITH MARKETS AND REVENUES. REPORTING FOR AGDAY, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.
DAIRY FARMERS:
WITHIN THIS DISTRICT -IOWA IS DOWN SIX PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO. BUT WISCONSIN CLIMBED SEVEN PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. THE AG DEPARTMENT HAS RECEIVED TWO REQUESTS TO HELP DAIRY FARMERS STRUGGLING WITH PLUMMETING ON-FARM MILK PRICES. THE NATIONAL MILK PRODUCERS FEDERATION ASKING USDA TO BUY 100-TO-150 MILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF CHEESE. AMERICAN FARM BUREAU MADE A SIMILAR REQUEST, BUT SUGGESTED THE AGENCY BUY 50-MILLION DOLLARS WORTH. THAT CHEESE COULD GO INTO USDA'S NUTRITION PROGRAMS AND FOR DONATIONS TO FOOD BANKS. LAST WEEK, USDA ANNOUNCED IT WAS PAYING OUT ELEVEN MILLION DOLLARS TO FARMERS ENROLLED IN THE MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM. BUT THOSE PAYMENTS ONLY GO TO FARMERS WHO SELECTED A CERTAIN LEVEL OF COVERAGE, THE EPA IS PUTTING FARMERS AND AG PROFESSIONAL ON NOTICE, IT'S INVESTIGATING THE ALLEGED MISUSE OF DICAMBA IN FARM FIELDS. IT SAYS EXTENSION EXPERTS CONTINUE TO REPORT DAMAGE FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE ILLEGAL USE OF DICAMBA IN FIELDS NEAR OR ADJACENT TO DICAMBA RESISTANT COTTON AND SOYBEANS.
EPA:
THE EPA STRESSES IT HAS NOT REGISTED ANY DICAMBA HERBICIDES FOR APPLICATION OVER THE TOP DURING THE SEASON FOR COTTON OR SOYBEANS. IN MISSOURI ALONE, THE STATE IS REPORTING 117 INSTANCES OF MISUSE AND A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SOME 42-THOUSAND ACRES. SIMILAR COMPLAINTS HAVE BEEN FILED IN ALABAMA, ARKANSAS, ILLINOIS, KENTUCKY, MINNESOTA, MISSISSIPPI, NORTH CAROLINA, TENNESSEE AND TEXAS.

CROP COMMENTS:
CROP COMMENTS IS POWERED BY RESICORE HERBICIDE FOR CORN, FROM DOW AGROSCIENCES. IT APPEARS THE U-S COULD BE FACING A BUSY HURRICANE SEASON. THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPERIC ADMINISTRATION -OR NOAA -JUST UPDATED ITS HURRICANE OUTLOOK FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE AGENCY SAYS IT EXPECTS A 70-PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN ABOVE-NORMAL SEASON. THE ODDS FOR A BELOW-NORMAL SEASON ARE NOW JUST 15-PERCENT. NOAA IS CALLING FOR 12-TO-17 NAMED STORMS. FIVE-TO-EIGHT WILL BECOME HURRICANES. AND TWO-TO-FOUR WOULD BE MAJOR HURRICANES. WE'VE HAD FIVE SO FAR.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT MARKET REACTION TO FRIDAY'S REPORTS AND TALK WITH TRADER TOMMY GRISFAFI ABOUT WHERE TO GO FROM HERE. MACHINERY PETE TAKES US TO A FARM AUCTION IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS -AND HELPS CELEBRATE AN AMERICAN PATRIOT. AND WITH A SHORTAGE OF DOCTORS IN RURAL AMERICA, SEE HOW ONE UNIVERSITY IS HOPING TO FILL THAT VOID.
AGRIBUSINESS:
IN AGRIBUSINESS LETS SEE HOW MARKETS REACTED TO USDA'S REPORTS ON FRIDAY. FOR THAT WE HEAD TO THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. GRAIN MARKETS TRADING LOWER INTO THE CLOSE BUT STILL WELL OFF THE LOWS IN REALLY QUITE A REMARKABLE RECOVERY GIVEN THE DATA THAT CAME OUT FORM USDA HERE ON FRIDAY. THERE'S A LOT OF DISBELIEF ABOUT THESE PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ESPECIALLY ON THE CORN SIDE AND THAT'S PROVIDING SOME OF THE SUPPORT WE'RE SEEING HERE TODAY. THERE'S A LOT OF TALK AROUND THE FLOOR AS WELL THAT THE MARKETS ARE REALLY VERY CLOSE TO THEIR SEASONAL LOWS TO BEGIN WITH AND REALLY NOT NEED NOT GO A WHOLE LOWER. MIXED TRADE IN THE LIVESTOCK MARKETS TODAY WITH THE LEAN HOGS TRADING HIGHER BUT THE CATTLE TRADING BASICALLY LOWER. THIS IS JACK SCOVILLE VP OF PRICE FUTURES GROUP HERE ON THE CME GROUP FLOOR WITH SOME COMMENTS FOR THE MARKETS TODAY.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY ON THIS MONDAY MORNING. WE HAVE MIKE HOFFMAN HERE. LOOKING AT LAST WEEK'S RAINFALL. BOY, BIG NUMBERS IN SOME PLACES AND IN SOME PLACES NEED IT JUST AREN'T GETTING IT. THAT UNFORTUNATELY HAPPENS AND YOU CAN SEE THE BIG ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM THERE. SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA, TOO BAD SOME OF THAT ISN'T GOING TOO FAR NORTH. THE UPPER MIDWEST, THE PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AS WELL BUT MISSED AREAS IN INDIANA AND UNFORTUNATELY. THERE'S THE BIG AMOUNTS. YOU CAN SEE SOME MASSIVE AMOUNTS. 8 INCHES PLUS TO A FOOT OR FOOT IN A HALF IN THOSE GULF COAST AREAS. AND THIS MOISTURE IS PROBABLY NOT DONE YET BECAUSE WHAT WE SEE THERE IS GOING TO LOOKS LIKE FUNNEL NORTHWARD, GO ALONG THE COLD FRONT, THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHERE THAT HAPPENS, WE'RE NOT SURE YET. BUT WE'LL BE WATCHING THIS WEEK BECAUSE THERE'S JUST A LITTLE BIT OF A TROUGH. YOU'LL SEE THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL PULL THAT UP. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PULL DOWN A LOT. I'LL SHOW YOU WHERE THAT'S PROBABLY GOING TO HAPPEN.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. WE'LL HEAD TO PUEBLO, COLORADO, FIRST OF ALL, PARTLY SUNNY AND HOT. MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM IN SPOTS. THE HIGH OF 93. VANDALIA, ILLINOIS, MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A THUNDERSTORM. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 78. AND TRENTON, NEW JERSEY, WARM AND HUMID. A THUNDERSTORM IN SOME AREAS. A HIGH OF 90.
TEASE:
MACHINERY PETE JOINS US NEXT WITH A SPECIAL REPORT ON THE PATRIOT TURNED FARMER. AND MEET THE NEXT GENERATION OF MED-SCHOOL STUDENTS IN MISSOURI AND SOME COULD COME FROM THE FARM BECAUSE OF A SPECIAL PROGRAM.
MACHINERY PETE:
WHEN MACHINERY PETE SHARES HIS WEEKLY DEALS WITH US, IT'S ALL ABOUT NUMBERS -MODEL, HOURS, AND PRICE. BUT THIS WEEK WE LEARN A LITTLE MORE ABOUT THE FARMER WHO SERVED HIS COUNTRY IN THE TIME OF NEED. HEY FOLKS, A LITTLE SOMETHING DIFFERENT FOR YOU THIS WEEK. I'M IN HAMMOND, ILLINOIS COVERING A FARM AUCTION.
TEASE:
NEXT, HEAR ABOUT A PROGRAM TO HELP RURAL AND DISADVANTAGED STUDENTS TAKE A CAREER PATH TO MEDICINE.
IN THE COUNTRY:
FOR THE THOUSANDS OF STUDENTS APPLYING TO MEDICAL SCHOOL EACH YEAR, SMALL DETAILS IN THE APPLICATION PROCESS CAN QUICKLY OPEN OR SHUT DOORS. A PROGRAM AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI HELPS HIGH SCHOOL AND COLLEGE STUDENTS STAY ON THE RIGHT PATH TO A CAREER IN HEALTH CARE. KENT FADDIS WITH M-U HAS MORE. WITH SOME NERVOUS LOOKS, HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS PUT ON THEIR SCRUBS TO DELIVER A BABY. "CATCH A BABY" THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI SCHOOL OF MEDICINE'S MEDPREP PROGRAM USES THE SHELDEN CLINICAL SIMULATION CENTER TO TRAIN STUDENTS FOR REAL LIFE SITUATIONS.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND ALL OF US AT AGDAY. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY IN FARM COUNTRY.
PROMO:

I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. TUESDAY ON AGDAY -JOIN US AS WE BRING YOU THE LATEST NEWS IN THE DAIRY SECTOR, INCLUDING A REQUEST FOR GOVERNMENT HELP AS MILK PRICES SLIDE. WE'LL ALSO HAVE THE LATEST MARKET NEWS FROM CHICAGO. WATCH US WEEKDAYS HERE ON AGDAY.

 

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