AgDay Daily Recap -Aug. 8, 2016

August 8, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
AUG. 8, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -NEW FARMLAND VALUE NUMBERS ARE OUT AND THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE LOWER. PLUS A MAJOR BAT DISEASE MOVES WESTWARD. IN AGRIBUSINESS...WHAT TO EXPECT IN SOYBEAN MARKETS. IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD TAKE OUT FORTY EIGHT A MEAN I THINK WE HAD OUR FORTY EIGHT RECORD IN TWO THOUSAND FIFTEEN CROP CONDITIONS ARE BETTER THAN LAST YEAR. PLUS, MACHINERY PETE LOOKS AT TILLAGE TOOLS. AND THESE TWO HORSES HAVE BUILT AN INCREDIBLE BOND.
USDA RELEASES ANNUAL REPORT:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AS GRAIN PRICES STAGNATE, THE ONE SILVER LINING IN THE ECONOMIC PICTURE FOR FARMERS MAY BE LOWER CASH RENTS. USDA JUST RELEASING ITS ANNUAL REPORT ON U-S FARMLAND VALUES AND CASH RENTS. WE'VE REPORTED THROUGH-OUT THE YEAR THAT VALUES ON GOOD FARMLAND HAVE DROPPED. AND USDA'S REPORT SHOWS THE SAME THING. BUT NOT MUCH. THE OVERALL PICTURE OF CROPLAND IN THIS COUNTRY DROPPED JUST ONE PERCENT TO FOUR-THOUSAND-90 DOLLARS AN ACRE. THAT FIGURE IS BASED ON ALL-QUALITY OF FARMLAND. (DOWN $40) BY REGION -THE CORNBELT SAW A ONE-POINT-NINE PERCENT DROP. IT INCLUDES THE THREE "EYE" STATES, OHIO AND MISSOURI. THE LARGEST DROP BY REGION WAS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH INCLUDES KANSAS, NEBRASKA. NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA. IT'S DOWN ON AVERAGE FIVE-POINT-FOUR PERCENT. IN THE SOUTHEAST REGION, THE AVERAGE CROPLAND VALUE INCREASED FOUR PERCENT FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR. 
CASH RENTS:
TURNING TO CASH RENTS -THE NATIONAL AVERAGE FOR CROPLAND IS ONEHUNDRED-36 DOLLARS AN ACRE. IOWA AND ILLINOIS HAVE SOME OF THE HIGHEST CASH RENTS, BUT THEY HAVE FALLEN OFF FROM LAST YEAR, IOWA COMES IN AT 235-DOLLARS, DOWN FROM 250. ILLINOIS IS 221, DOWN FROM 228 PER ACRE. CALIFORNIA HAS THE HIGHEST CASH RENT AVERAGE AT THREE-HUNDRED-NINE DOLLARS AN ACRE. MEANWHILE USDA'S NASS OFFICE ALSO RELEASING NEW PRODUCTION NUMBERS. THEY SAY INPUTS IN 2015 FOR CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION TOTALLED ABOUT 362 BILLION DOLLARS. THAT'S A DROP OF NEARLY 9 PERCENT COMPARED TO 2014. NASS SAYS THAT REVERSES A LONG-TERM TREND OF GROWING COSTS. FEED AND FARM SERVICES, THE TWO LARGEST EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES FOR U.S. FARMERS IN 2014, BOTH DECLINED MORE THAN 8 PERCENT LAST YEAR.  A LARGE CROP IS EXPECTED THIS YEAR -NOT JUST STATEWIDE BUT THROUGHOUT THE NATION.
CHERRY PRODUCTION REPORT:
USDA SAYS IN ITS CHERRY PRODUCTION REPORT PRODUCTION IS FORECAST AT ROUGHLY 309 MILLION POUNDS -UP 39 PERCENT FROM 2015. HARVEST IS GOING GREAT. WE GOT AN ABUNDANT CROP OF CHERRIES. WEATHER HAS BEEN HOT AND PRETTY DRY BUT OVERALL, WE'LL TAKE IT. WE HAD SOME HAIL EARLIER IN JULY WHICH IMPACTED QUITE A BIT OF OUR FRUIT IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BUT WE'RE STILL ABLE TO FIND A LOT OF GOOD FRUIT OUT THERE SO, WE'RE TRYING TO LOOK AT SOME OF THOSE CHALLENGES AS POSITIVES."
CROP PROGRESS:
USDA'S REPORT SAYS UTAH, WISCONSIN AND WASHINGTON ARE REPORTING GOOD CROPS. NEW YORK IS ANTICIPATING A LESS THAN AVERAGE CROP DUE TO FREEZE AND FROST ISSUES AT BLOOM
WHITE NOSE FUNGUS FOUND IN BATS:
A FUNGUS THAT'S BEEN KILLING BATS BY THE MILLIONS HAS NOW APPEARED IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. RESEARCHERS CONFIRM THE ARRIVAL OF WHITE NOSE SYNDROME IN THE STATE OF WASHINGTON. AND GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS SAY IT MATCHES THE SAME STRAINS FOUND IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES, THE U-S FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE SAYS IT WAS DISCOVERED IN NORTH BEND, WASHINGTON -WHICH IS 13-HUNDRED MILES FROM THE PREVIOUS WESTERNMOST DETECTION IN NEBRASKA. WHITE NOSE SYNDROME WAS FIRST FOUND IN NEW YORK STATE IN 2006. AND QUICKLY SPREAD FROM THERE. RESEARCHERS DON'T KNOW AT THIS POINT IF THE FUNGUS REACHED WASHINGTON BY BAT MOVEMENTS OR BY HUMANS.
CROP COMMENTS:
CINDI IS IN FOR MIKE TODAY. LET'S CHECK IN WITH HER FOR THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. CINDI. GOOD MORNING, CLINTON. LET'S START OFF IN VERMILLION, IN ALBERTA, CANADA. A VIEWER SENT US THIS PHOTO ON TWITTER OF THE SUN SETTING OVER THE FIELDS. HE SAYS THE AREA IS ACTUALLY PRETTY WET BUT MOST OF THE CROPS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. MOVING OVER TO SOUTH HAVEN, MICHIGAN WHERE IT'S THE PEAK OF BLUEBERRY SEASON! MIKE DEGRANDCHAMP OF DEGRANDCHAMP FARMS IS ANTICIPATING A BIG CROP, POTENTIALLY A RECORD. WE'LL HAVE A LOOK AT YOUR NATIONAL FORECAST FOR THE WEEK COMING UP BUT NOW HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'LL TALK TO BILL BIEDERMAN ABOUT THE CURRENT MARKET SITUATION AND WHERE YIELDS POTENTIAL COULD PUSH PRICES IN THE COMING WEEKS. STAY TUNED FOLKS. COMING UP WE'LL TALK ABOUT TRENDS WITH USED TILLAGE VALUES. LATER, WE'LL HEAR ABOUT A SPECIAL BOND BETWEEN TWO HORSES AND THEIR TALE OF FRIENDSHIP. IN THE COUNTRY LATER ON AGDAY.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS TODAY...THE BAYER AND MONSANTO DEAL IS STILL UNDER CONSIDERATION ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG. IT'S REPORING GERMANY BASED BAYER IS EXAMINING MONSANTO'S FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS. AND THAT COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR IT TO RAISE IT'S TAKEOVER OFFER--NOW AT 55 BILLION DOLLARS. THE CME GROUP CONTINUES TO MAKE CHANGES TO IT'S LIVE CATTLE FUTURES IN HOPES OF SATISFYING THE MARKETPLACE. TODAY THE MARKET GROUP ANNOUNCIING IT'S 3 SPEICIFIC STEPS. THAT INCLUDE A SEASONAL DISCOUNT FOR FUTURE'S DELIVERIES INWORTHINGTON SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MOVE MEANS A DOLLAR-50 DISCOUNT PER HUNDREDWEIGHT IN ORDER TO BETTER MATCH CASH PRICES. IT'S REVISING IT'S GRADING SPECS BY MAKING IT 60 -40 CHOICE SELECT SPLIT. AND ITS STOPIING THE LISTING OF NEW LIVE CATTLE CONTRACTS BEYOND OCTOBER OF 2017 IN HOPES OF BUILDING A BETTER CONTRACT WITH INPUT FROM THE INDUSTRY.. LET'S SEE WHERE THE WEEK END-UP IN THE GRAIN MARKETS. LET'S HEAD TO THE CME FLOOR. A LOT OF ACTIVITY GOING ON IN THE GRAINS HAS EVERYBODY HAS SEEN THIS MORNING. WE ARE SEEING A LOT MORE BUYING A PARTICULARLY IN THE WHEAT AND THE SOY. IF YOU AT THE SEPTEMBER CONTRACTS, WE'RE LOOKING AT ALMOST AT PARODY AS FAR AS GAINS FOR THE DAY WHICH IS UNUSUAL THAT WHEAT IS NORMALLY HOLDING GROUND WITH THE SOYBEANS. THIS IS GARY KOZLOWSKI WITH FARR FINANCIAL COMING TO YOU FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME.
AGRIBUSINESS:
 JOINING US HERE THAT THE BIZ DESK WE HAVE BILL BEIDERMAN ALLENDALE INCORPORATED BILL LETS TALK ABOUT SOYBEANS AND KIND OF WHERE WE SIT. AUGUST IS THE MONTH TO MAKE A BEAN CROP IS WE ALL KNOW AS WE TALK ABOUT THAT ALL THE TIME BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THERE'S JUST BEEN THIS CONSTANT BARRAGE OF NEGATIVE NEWS THAT WE KEEP HEARING YOU NOW IS ALL YOU KNOW EVERYBODY WAS BULLISH WAITING FOR THE DROUGHT TO HAPPEN AND EVERY WEEK THAT WENT BY JUST A WORE PEOPLE OUT LEFT AND RIGHT LEFT AND RIGHT WE FINALLY HAD A BIG BREAK IN WERE WERE GOING FROM A A FORTY SIX POINT SEVEN BUSHEL YIELD IN OUR TALK IN FORTY EIGHT THAT IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD TAKE OUT FORTY EIGHT A MEAN I THINK WE HAD OUR FORTY EIGHT RECORD IN TWO THOUSAND FIFTEEN CROP CONDITIONS ARE BETTER THAN LAST YEAR WHEN WE COULD PROBABLY TAKE THAT OUT IS THERE IS A MORE NEGATIVE NEWS OUT THERE THOUGH BEYOND JUST THE SIZE OF THIS CROP. WELL THEY'RE STILL TRYING TO TALK BULLISH THOUGH I MEAN YOU KNOW WHAT WE HEAR THIS LAST WEEK ALSO HEARD ABOUT WAS GONNA RAISE EXPORTS SIXTY MILLION BUSHELS RIGHT WELL WE HAVE SIXTY MILLION BUSHELS TO GIVE THEM ENOUGH SO A GOOD THING RIGHT WE'RE STILL GOING TO LOOK AT A CARRY OVER THAT'S EITHER ABOVE THREE HUNDRED OR REALLY CLOSE TO THREE HUNDRED EITHER WAY THAT'S NEGATIVE.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY, CINDI CLAWSON KICKING US OFF THIS WEEK. CINDI, AS WE LOOK AT THE DROUGHT MONITOR, STILL THOSE THREE DISTINCT POCKETS I GUESS. YEAH, REALLY HAS BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE. IT'S JUST BEEN CONTINUING TO GET WORSE EVERY WEEK IN THOSE THREE MAIN POCKETS. LET'S TAKE A LOOK. AND THOSE THREE POCKETS WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT ARE IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE WE'VE SEEN THIS DROUGHT EXPANDING. WE'VE BEEN SEEING THAT EXPANDING TO THE WEST. IN THE SOUTHEAST OF COURSE, WE'VE BEEN SAYING THAT DROUGHT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS REALLY STARTING TO EXPAND EVEN MORE. AND THAT THE OTHER AREA WE'RE WATCHING FOR THIS EXPANSION IS IN TWO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE'VE ALSO SEEN SOME EXPANSION IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND IT'S STILL VERY, VERY DRY OUT IN MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WHERE DID WE SEE THE RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK? WELL A LOT OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY HAD SOME SCATTERED STUFF. WE'VE NOTICED IT WAS FAIRLY HIT MISS AS HE GOT THE PARTS OF THE EASTERN CORN BELT WHERE WE'RE CONTINUING TO SEE AND DRY CONDITIONS THERE
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK AT YOUR NATIONAL FORECAST. NOW LET'S CHECK OUT THE WEATHER WHERE YOU LIVE. SPRING CITY, UTAH, SUNNY AND WARM FOR YOU TODAY WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF EIGHTY NINE DEGREES. CLOVERDALE, INDIANA, MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A HIGH OF EIGHTY FOUR. AND OVER TO GREENTOWN, PENNSYLVANIA, SUNNY AND
TEASE:
MACHINERY PETE JOINS US NEXT TO TALK ABOUT TILLAGE TOOLS AND THE RECENT TRENDS HE'S BEEN SEEING AT AUCTION. AND LATER, WE'LL MEET AN ORPHAN FOAL FINDING HER FOOTING IN LIFE THANKS TO SOME HELPFUL FRIENDS AT MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY.
MACHINERY PETE:
IT MAY BE CLOSER TO HARVEST SEASON THAN TILLAGE SEASON BUT MACHINERY PETE IS ALREADY CHECKING PRICES ON THOSE TOOLS. AND HE SAYS WE MAY BE CLOSE TO BOTTOM ON PRICES. ALRIGHT FOLKS. LET'S TALK ABOUT USED TILLAGE VALUES. BASICALLY THE PAST TWO YEARS, THEY'VE BEEN DOING DOWN. HERE'S A LOOK AT MY QUARTERLY MACHINERY PETE USED VALUES INDEX REPORT. IT'S A VERY SIMPLE ONE-TO-TEN RATING SCALE. AS YOU CAN SEE HERE THAT USED TILLAGE VALUES HAVE BEEN FALLING SINCE SECOND QUARTER 2014. DOWN TO 7.1 RATING ON MY 1-10 SCALE. NOW ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT THIS WOULD BE IF WE TOOK A VERY COMMON EXAMPLE, SAY A JOHN DEERE 637 DISC. NOW TWO YEARS AGO, BACK IN 2014, THE AVERAGE AUCTION PRICE WAS $25,461. BUT LAST YEAR, 2015, THAT FELL NEARLY 30% DOWN TO AVERAGE AUCTION PRICE OF $17,849. SO FAR THIS YEAR IN 2016 JUST LATELY STARTING TO GET A LITTLE BIT BETTER. WE'RE DOWN ONLY 5.2% THIS YEAR TO AVG PRICE OF JUST OVER $16,000.
TEASE:
ALRIGHT THANKS GREG. WHEN WE COME BACK THE INSPIRING STORY OF ORPHAN ANNIE AND HER ROCKY ROAD AS LIFE BEGAN.
IN THE COUNTRY:
AS A LIVESTOCK GROWER, WATCHING THE NEXT GENERATION COME INTO THE WORLD IS ALWAYS AN EXCITING TIME. BUT SOMETIMES, THINGS DON'T QUITE GO AS PLANNED. THAT WAS THE CASE FOR A FOAL NAMED ORPHAN ANNIE--AS TOLD WITH HELP FROM THE FOLKS AT MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY.ANNIE IS A FILLY BORN AT MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY, WHO ENDED UP BEING A PRODUCT OF A MARE/FOAL REJECTION. HER MOM WAS A MAIDEN MARE—A MARE THAT HAD NEVER HAD A FOAL BEFORE AND THERE WERE COMPLICATIONS WITH ANNIE'S DELIVERY. SO ONCE THIS MARE HAD DELIVERED THE FOAL, AND  THE FOAL GOT UP AND TRIED TO NURSE. THE MARE WAS VERY VERY CRANKY AND WOULDN'T LET THE FOAL NURSE AND SOMETIMES THAT'S NOT UNCOMMON IN MAIDEN MARES. THE MARE WAS CRANKY WOULDN'T ALLOW ANNIE TO NURSE. SOMETIMES AFTER A COUPLE OF HOURS THE CRANKINESS WEARS OFF AND THE MARE WILL EVENTUALLY NURSE THE FOAL.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR CINDI CLAWSON, AND ALL OF HERE AT AGDAY. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. TUESDAY ON AGDAY MIKE NORTH IS HERE AS WE DISCUSS THE LATEST IN THE STRUGGLING DAIRY MARKETS. IT COULD BE ANOTHER WARM WEEK IN THE CORN BELT. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS. NEWS THAT MATTERS TO YOUR BOTTOM LINE -TUNE IN WEEKDAYS FOR AGDAY.

 

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