AgDay Daily Recap -August 16, 2016

August 16, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
AUGUST 16, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -AN EXPECTED RECORD CROP AND PLENTY OF RAINS YET GRAINS GO HIGHER. PLUS HOW IS THE CROP CONDITION? THE LATEST CROP PROGRESS NUMBERS FROM USDA. A SOCIAL MEDIA DUST UP HAS TART CHERRY GROWERS PICKING SIDES. IN AGRIBUSINESS...A LOOK AT CATTLE MARKETS.WE'VE BEEN TRYING TO GET UP AND OVER KEY RESISTANCE FOR OCTOBER LIVE CATTLE FAILED. AND CAN THIS CALIFORNIA RESTAURANT UP THE ANTE ON THE NEW ORLEANS BEIGNET?
GRAINS PUSH HIGHER:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. GRAIN PRICES PUSHED HIGHER MONDAY -DESPITE BENEFICIAL RAINS IN THE CORNBELT AND A MASSIVE CROP THAT USDA PROJECTED ON FRIDAY. WHEN THE WEEK CLOSED, USDA POSTED NEW CROP ESTIMATES -SAYING U-S FARMERS ARE PRODUCING A RECORD CORN AND SOYBEAN CROP. DECEMBER CORN REMAINS ABOVE THREE DOLLARS, CLOSING THREE CENTS HIGHER. NOVEMBER BEANS CLOSED 27 CENTS HIGHER, JUST ABOVE THE TEN DOLLAR MARK. OHIO STATE AG ECONOMIST MATT ROBERTS SAYS AN INCREASE IN EXPORTS OF OLD CROP SOYBEANS COULD BE BOLSTERING PRICES, "EXPORT SHIPMENTS REALLY PICKED-UP, PHYSICAL SHIPMENTS OUT OF THE UNITED STATES, WE NOW ARE SEEING IT REFLECT IN THESE NUMBERS WHICH CREATED A LOT IN TIGHTENING IN THOSE OLD CROP STOCKS FROM 350 MB LAST MONTH TO 255 MB THIS MONTH. SO THAT HAS OVERALL PROVIDED SOME LIFT PARTICULARY IN THAT OLD CROP. BUT IT ALSO HELPED TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THIS VERY BIG PROJECTED HARVEST FOR NEW CROP."
CROP PROGRESS REPORT:
THE NEW CROP PROGRESS REPORT SHOWS SOYBEAN PROGRESS IS UNCHANGED FROM LAST WEEK. 72-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. 80-PERCENT IS SETTING PODS. CORN IS STILL EARNING HIGH MARKS. 74-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT. OHIO'S DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRAG-DOWN CORN CONDITIONS. 44PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT, A DECLINE OF THREE POINTS FROM LAST WEEK. 21-PERCENT OF THE CROP IS AT DENT STAGE....WHICH IS RIGHT ON PAR WITH THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. AND IN COTTON 48-PERCENT OF THE CROP IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. LOUISIANA HAS BEEN ONE OF THE BRIGHT SPOTS WITH 71-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT AND A THIRD OF THE CROP WITH OPENING BOLLS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE STATE IS GETTING POUNDED WITH RAIN. USDA MARKETING ORDERS ARE A COMMON TOOL IN AGRICULTURE. THEY HELP DETERMINE A MINIMUM PRICE FOR FARMERS FOR THEIR PRODUCTS -SUCH AS DAIRY AND PRODUCE. BUT CERTAIN STIPULATIONS OF MARKETING ORDERS PERTAINING TO TART CHERRIES SET-OFF A FIRESTORM IN SOCIAL MEDIA.
TART CHERRIES IN MICHIGAN:
YOU MAY HAVE SEEN THIS PICTURE -POSTED ONLINE BY TRAVERSE CITY, MICHIGAN TART CHERRY GROWER -MARC SANTUCCI -AFTER DUMPING A PERCENTAGE OF HIS CROP ON THE GROUND TO ROT -BLAMING THE INDUSTRY'S MARKETING ORDER AND IMPORTS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES. BETSY JIBBEN REPORTS ON THE POST AND THE TURBULENCE ITS CREATING. GROWERS SAY THE TART CHERRY INDUSTRY IS COMPLICATED. THE CROP IS NOT LIKE SWEET CHERRIES WHERE YOU CAN EAT THEM BY THE HANDFUL. THEY'RE EVEN REGULATED DIFFERENTLY. TART CHERRIES ARE USED FOR YOUR TRADITIONAL PIES AND EVEN JUICE. AND TIME IS IMPORTANT -IT'S A VERY PERISHABLE CROP. > THIS IS WHAT'S LEFT OF THE TART CHERRY CROP MICHIGAN GROWER, MARC SANTUCCI DUMPED..
FLOOD UPDATE:
IN A STORY THAT'S CHANGING BY THE HOUR -THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS DECLARED A MAJOR DISASTER IN LOUISIANA, AND FORECASTERS EXPECTED MORE FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. CONTINUOUS RAINS CAUSED RIVERS AND CREEKS TO BURST THEIR BANKS AND PARKING LOTS BECAME POOLS OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE THAN 20-THOUSAND PEOPLE WERE RESCUED FROM THEIR HOMES -MOST OF THOSE AROUND BATON ROUGE. MEANWHILE, THE ILLINOIS STATE FAIR IS STILL CLEANING-UP AFTER TORRENTIAL RAINS HIT SPRINGFIELD ON FRIDAY NIGHT. FIVE INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 12 HOURS.
CROP COMMENTS:
MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS AND TODAY'S CROP COMMENTS. GOOD MORNING CLINTON. THE EASTERN CORN BELT RECEIVED SOME BADLY NEEDED RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. FARMER GARY HAYNES FROM MASON, MICHIGAN SENT THIS PHOTO. HIS RAIN GAUGE SHOWS THREE INCHES OF RAIN. LAST WEEK'S DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS ABOUT HALF OF MICHIGAN IS RATED AS "ABNORMALLY DRY". MEANWHILE IN NORTH-CENTRAL INDIANA, TOMATO HARVEST STARTED LAST WEEK. THIS IS THE HAROLD PARKER FARM IN LAPORTE COUNTY. HE EXPECTS TOMATO HARVEST WILL RUN SIX WEEKS. I EXPECT HARVEST HAS STOPPED FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BECAUSE OF THE RAIN HITTING NORTHERN INDIANA. AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE ESTIMATED RAINFALL WE'RE GOING TO TALK MORE ABOUT THAT THIS IN MAIN WEATHER BUT YOU CAN SEE A LOT OF THAT TROPICAL MOSITURE THAT CLOBBERED LOUISIANA NOW MOVING UP THROUGH PARTS OF THE CORN BELTS IN THE GREAT LAKES I'LL HAVE YOUR FORECAST COMING UP BUT NOW HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'LL TALK CATTLE MARKETS AND EXPECATIONS FOR PRICES IN THE COMMING WEEKS WITH TED SEIFRED. AND LATER, PERFECTING A CONFECTIONARY FAVORITE. A NEW RESTAURANTSAYS THEY'RE IMPROVING ON THE NEW ORLEANS BEIGNET.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS LETS SEE IF WE CAN UNDERSTAND MONDAY'S MARKET REACTION. FOR MORE WE HEAD TO THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. JACK SCOVILLE, PRICE FUTURES GROUP SAYS "IT SEEMS THAT THE WAY MARKET REACTED AFTER SOME HUGELY BEARISH USDA REPORTS ON FRIDAY, SEEING THE MARKET COME BACK AND CLOSE THE WAY IT DID, AND THE FOLLOW THROUGH BUYING ON MONDAY, MAKES YOU THINK THE MARKET HAS SEEN THE SHORT TERM LOW FOR WHATEVER REASON. AND THAT WE COULD SEE THE HIGHER PRICES, SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRICES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. A LOT OF DOUBT ABOUT USDA PRODUCTION ESTIMATES.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE SOME BIBLICAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN FALLING IN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BUT SOME PLACES THAT REALLY NEED RAIN ARE GETTING IT WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL. RIGHT A TROPICAL SYSTEM SAT OVER THE GULF COAST AND JUST PUTTING UNBELIEVABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN BUT NOW THAT IT'S STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD IT IS PUTTING DOWN SOME RAIN IN THE SOIL AREAS THAT NEEDED IT THIS MAP SHOWS THE ESTIMATED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVEN DAYS AS OF MIDAFTERNOON YESTERDAY SO IT'S STILL RAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA BUT YOU CAN SEE THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING UP IN THE PARTS OF MISSOURI SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA AND THAT WILL STREAK NORTH EASTWARD AS WELL SO I WILL SHOW YOU THOSE AMOUNTS COMING UP AT LEAST WHAT OUR COMPUTER MODEL IS EXPECTING. BUT THERE IS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW PART OF THAT ENERGY IS STILL IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS BUT A LOT OF IT IS STREAKING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE SYSTEM AND YOU CAN SEE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY THAT HEAVY RAIN MOVES OUT OF MICHIGAN AND INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THAT WARM FRONT VERY MUGGY OBVIOUSLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THESE TWO FRONTS AND ARE STILL GOING TO BE SOME OF THAT MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA NOTHING LIKE LAST WEEK BUT ALSO PORTIONS OF TEXAS.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS WE HEAD TO SOCORRO NEW MEXICO FIRST OF ALL PARTLY SUNNY MAYBE AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM HIGH OF NINETY. WAUSAU WISCONSIN PARTLY SUNNY AND MORE COMFORTABLE HIGH AROUND EIGHTY DEGREES AND PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA CLOUDS AND HUMID THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HIGH ROUND EIGHTY SEVEN.
TEASE:
UP NEXT PRODUCTION AND PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE DAIRY INDUSTRY THANKS TO ANALYSTS AT USDA. AND LATER, IS IT REALLY POSSIBLE TO IMPROVE ON A DOUGHNUT? THIS NEW RESTAURANT HAS A NEW TWIST ON THE NEW ORLEANS STYLE DOUGHNUT.
DAIRY REPORT:
OUR DAIRY REPORT WE START WITH USDA'S LATEST WASDE REPORT. IT LOWERED IT'S FORECAST FOR U.S. MILK IN 2016 THIS MONTH BASED ON FALLING MILK PER COW NUMBERS. HOWEVER, IT'S STILL EXPECTING BIG PRODUCTION NEXT YEAR. FORECASTING NEARLY 216 BILLION POUNDS. THAT'S UP MORE THAN 3 AND A HALF BILLION POUNDS COMPARED TO THIS YEAR. ANALYSTS SAY FALLING FEED PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO ENTICE MODEST HERD EXPANSION AND RAPID GROWTH IN MILK PER COW PRODUCTION.
MILK PRICES EXPECTED TO HOLD:
USDA EXPECTS THE ALL MILK PRICE TO HOLD BETWEEN 16 AND 17 DOLLARS PER HUNDRED BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF 2017. WHILE GRAINS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT NEW RECORDS IN 2016, USDA ALSO THINKS ALFALFA HAY PRODUCTION WILL RISE. ITS ANTICIPATING 61 AND A HALF MILLION TONS THIS YEAR--4 PERCENT HIGHER THAN 2015. OTHER TYPES OF HAY ARE ALSO HIGHER WITH 2016 ON PACE TO SEE RECORD HIGH PER ACRE AVERAGE YIELDS AND THE 3RD LARGEST "OTHER HAY" CROP EVER. THEY MAY NEED SOME OF THAT HAY IN NEW YORK STATE. ONE OF THAT NATION'S LARGEST DAIRY PRODUCERS, NEW YORK HAS SEEN SOME OF IT'S DRIEST WEATHER IN 30 OR 40 YEARS. FARMERS IN THE AREA ARE ALREADY STARING TO BUY HAY WHILE OTHERS ARE TRYING TO CUT BACK ON HERD NUMBERS.
DROUGHT MONITOR:
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS NEARLY HALF OF THE STATE IS IN SOME STATE OF DROUGHT. 3 MONTHS AGO IT WAS ZERO PERCENT. IF YOU'VE TRAVLED TO NEW ORLEANS, YOU'VE PROBABLY HAD A BEIGNET. BUT A NEW RESTAURANT IS CHANGING THE RECIPE. DETAILS NEXT ON AGDAY.
IN THE COUNTRY:
WHEN YOU BITE INTO A DONUT, THERE'S A CERTAIN SWEETNESS YOU'VE COME TO EXPECT. BUT SOME FOLKS IN CALIFORNIA THINK THAT'S NOT GOOD ENOUGH. A NEW RESTAURANT CALLED " BEVERLY HILLS BEIGNET" IS NOW REPLACING THE SUGARY PERFECTION WITH SAVORY FILLINGS -LIKE ROASTED ARTICHOKE AND SMOKED HAM. THE HUMBLE DONUT -OR BEIGNET -IS NOW A HEARTY ENCORE. BEIGNETS ARE A FRENCH-STYLE DONUT, COVERED WITH POWDERED SUGAR, AND VERY POPULAR IN N'AWLINS, EACH DOUGHNUT IS FRIED ON THE SPOT THE MOMENT THE ORDER IS TAKEN. NOTHING IS EVER PRECOOKED.
CLOSING:
FOR BETSY JIBBEN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. WEDNESDAY ON AGDAY. GRAIN PRICES ARE STRUGGLING AND SO ARE FARM INCOMES...SO WHO IS MAKING MONEY? WE'LL ASK TOMMY GRISAFI IN ANALYSIS. PLUS, WE'LL BREAK DOWN THE LATEST CROP PROGRESS NUMBERS. AND MIKE HOFFMAN MONITORS YOUR FARM COUNTRY WEATHER. WATCH US WEEKDAYS ON AGDAY.


 

 

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