AgDay Daily Recap -August 18, 2016

August 18, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
AUGUST 18, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -A CHECK ON THE RURAL ECONOMY RAISES RED FLAGS. PLUS PREVIEWING CROP CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AHEAD OF THE 2016 PROFARMER MIDWEST CROP TOUR. IN AGRIBUSINESS...CAN BEANS KEEP UP DEMAND. YET AT THE END OF THE DAY YOU'RE LOOKING AT A 330 MILLION BUSHEL CARRYOVER FOR SOYBEANS REALTIVLEY SPEAKING THAT'S FAIRLY TIGHT. DROVERS TV LOOKS AT WHY SOME CATTLE ARE GETTING BRUISES ON THE WAY TO THE PACKER. AND SWEET CORN WORTH WAITING FOR FROM NORTH DAKOTA.
RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX DROPS AGAIN:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AMERICA'S RURAL BANKERS ARE RAISING THE CAUTION FLAG ON FARM INCOMES FOR THE END OF 2016 AND 2017. NEW DETAILS FROM CREIGHTON UNIVERSITIES RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX. THE MONTHLY SURVEY OF BANK CEOS IN RURAL AREAS OF A 10-STATE REGION IS OUT FOR JULY. THE INDEX FELL AGAIN LAST MONTH--DROPPING BELOW 40. YOU MAY REMEMBER 50 IS CONSIDERED GROWTH NEUTRAL. THIS IS THE 11TH STRAIGHT MONTH THE INDEX HAS REMAINED BELOW THAT GROWTH NEUTRAL STAGE. AS A RESULT OF WEAKER FARM ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, BANKERS EXPECT ALMOST ONE IN FIVE CROP FARMERS, OR NEARLY 20 (19.5) PERCENT, TO SUFFER NEGATIVE CASH FLOWS IN 2016...WHERE CASH EXPENSES EXCEED REVENUES. ON AVERAGE, FARM LOAN DEFAULTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BY MORE THAN 5 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT YEAR. BANKERS SAY SOMETHING IS GOING TO HAVE TO GIVE.
RECORD SETTING CROPS HAVE LITTLE REACTION AT CME:
DESPITE THOSE LOWER PRICES USDA SAYS WE'RE GROWING SOME RECORD SETTING CROPS. ESPECIALLY ON CORN AND SOYBEANS. AND YET BOTH OF THOSE CROPS SEEING VERY LITTLE REACTION AT THE CME. TYNE MORGAN IS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE FARMERS ARE DEALING WITH HEAVY RAINS A HEAD OF NEXT WEEK'S PROFARMER CROP TOUR. "THANKS SO MUCH CLINTON. WELL HERE IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WE'RE SEEING THE AFTERMATH OF THAT HUGE STORM SYSTEM THAT JUST SET OVER THE U-S THIS WEEK FROM ALL THE WAY DOWN IN TEXAS ALL THE WAY UP NORTH. HERE IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THAT AFTERMATH SHOWING UP AS AS WATER JUST SETS IN THE FIELD. WAYDE HOW MUCH RAIN HAVE YOU RECEIVED THIS WEEK ALONE? WE RECEIVED SIX AND HALF INCHES RIGHT HERE IN VERGENNE'S.
BIG TRUCKS HAVE NEW EMISSIONS STANDARDS:
THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION TUESDAY ANNOUNCING NEW CARBON-EMISSION STANDARDS FOR 'BIG TRUCKS'. THE EPA AND THE TRANSPORTATION DEPARTMENT ANNOUNCING THE FINAL STANDARDS FOR BIG VEHICLES RANGING FROM VANS TO GARBAGE TRUCKS TO 18-WHEELERS. THE RULES REQUIRE CUTTING CARBON EMISSIONS BY UP TO 25 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT DECADE. THE STANDARDS ARE PART OF THE ADMINISTRATION'S GOAL TO CUT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS ACROSS THE U.S. ECONOMY BY MORE THAN 25 PERCENT BY 2025.
CROP COMMENTS:
RICE FARMERS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS WITH TOO MUCH MOISTURE AND HEAT IN ARKANSAS, MIKE HOFFMAN IS HERE WITH DETAILS IN CROP COMMENTS. MIKE. GOOD MORNING CLINTON. WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE FLOODING IN THE SOUTH. A RICE SPECIALIST AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS SAYS HEAVY RAINS THROUGHOUT THE STATE COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO TRIGGER INSTANCES OF RICE PREMATURELY SPROUTING FROM PANICLES. THAT COULD RESULT IN MILLING AND YIELD LOSSES ONCE HARVEST BEGINS.
TEASE:
UP NEXT WE'LL SLIDE OVER TO THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK TO DISCUSS RECENT SOYBEAN DEMAND WITH TED SEIFRED. HOW LONG WILL YOU WAIT, OR HOW FAR WILL YOU TRAVEL, FOR THE BEST SWEET CORN AROUND? THE ANSWER MAY SURPRISE YOU, WHEN WE HEAD IN THE COUNTRY.
AGRIBUSINESS PITCH:
IN AGRIBUSINESS TODAY, A GERMAN PUBLICATION IS REPORTING, BAYER AG COULD TURN "DIRECTLY TO SHAREHOLDERS" IN ITS QUEST TO ACQUIRE MONSANTO. THE IDEA OF A HOSTILE TAKE OVER FOLLOWS ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI-BASED MONSANTO'S REJECTION OF TWO PROPOSALS FROM BAYER. MONSANTO CALLED THE PROPOSALS "FINANCIALLY INADEQUATE." BAYER'S MOST RECENT OFFER VALUED MONSANTO AT ABOUT $64 BILLION. IN THE COMING WEEKS, BAYER WILL REPORTEDLY DECIDE ON WHETHER A FRIENDLY MERGER IS STILL POSSIBLE, OR WHETHER BAYER MUST CHOOSE AN ALTERNATIVE PATH. GRAINS SPENDING A LOT OF TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE GREEN ONCE AGAIN.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
LETS SEE HOW THE TRADING DAY ENDED FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. VERY SUBDUED AND I THINK THERE'S AN OLD SAYING SOMETIMES YOU FISH SOMETIMES YOU CUT BAIT. IF YOU GOT TIME " IT'S A GOOD TIME TO CUT BAIT CUZ THERE'S NOT A HECKUVA LOT GOING ON AROUND HERE.I THINK WE'VE SEEN THE LOW IN CORN. I THINK WE'VE SEEN THE LOW IN WHEAT. I THINK ANYTIME YOU SIT A BIT OF A PULLBACK " YOU CAN STEP IN AND BUY. IF YOU'RE HOLDING I THINK YOU CAN STORE. I THINK WE'RE GOING TO SEE HIGHER PRICES LATER. I THINK THE SOYBEANS ARE STILL IN A RANGE THAT WERE IN A VERY KEY POINT HERE AND NOVEMBER BEANS WERE STILL OVER TEN. IF WE CAN MAINTAIN THIS AND BUILD THE BASE AROUND TEN " THEN THE BOTTOMS MAY VERY WELL BE IN HERE AND BEANS AS WELL. PERSONALLY I BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BEGIN TEST THAT LOW AT NINE FORTY THREE OR NINE FIFTY BEFORE WE ACTUALLY START AND RESUME A RALLY HIGHER BUT OVERALL IT'S BEEN VERY QUIET I DON'T I DON'T FORESEE BUSINESS GET ANY BUSIER IN THE NEXT TEN DAYS AGO AS WE GO INTO THE HOLIDAY. THIS IS TODD BUBBA HORWITZ" BUBBATRADING.COM COMING TO YOU FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME GROUP IN CHICAGO. "
AGRIBUSINESS:
JOINING US HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK TED SEIFRED ZANER AG HEDGE AND TED AS WE LOOK AT THE BEAN CROP ALL INDICATORS ARE PRETTY GOOD CROP AND WE NEED IT TO GO SOMEWHERE HOW IS DEMAND STACKING UP FOR US RIGHT NOW? IT SEEMS PRETTY STRONG AND THAT WAS THE BIG SURPRISE ON THE USDA REPORT ON FRIDAY WAS THE BIG INCREASE THAT WE SAW ON DEMAND FOR OLD CROP AND NEW CROP BEANS SO IN A RECORD YIELD OF FORTY EIGHT POINT NINE. JUST SHY OF A FORTY NINE NATIONAL AVERAGE YIELD FOR SOYBEANS IF THAT NUMBER HOLDS IT WILL BE A REALLY NICE RECORD AND YOU KNOW WE HAD GOOD ACREAGE FOR BEANS SOME WILL ARGUE EVEN MORE. YET AT THE END OF THE DAY YOU'RE LOOKING AT A THREE HUNDRED THIRTY MILLION BUSHEL CARRYOVER FOR SOYBEANS ARE RELATIVELY SPEAKING THAT'S FAIRLY TIGHT FROM STOCKS TO USAGE PERSPECTIVE THAT'S REALLY TIGHT AND SO IN THE WAY THAT WE GET THERE IS BECAUSE OF THE BIG INCREASES IN DEMAND AND IT'S BEEN ELEVEN DAYS STRAIGHT WHERE WE'VE SEEN SOMETHING ON THE DAILY WIRE WHETHER THE SOYBEAN SOYBEAN PRODUCTS OR MAYBE CORN BUT GLOBAL END USERS HAVE REALLY STEPPED UP IN A BIG WAY HERE LAST FEW WEEKS AND WANTED OWNERSHIP THAT IS A BIT OF A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE AT VALUE PRICES RIGHT NOW IN SOYBEANS AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTS SO GOING FORWARD AS LONG AS THAT DEMAND STAYS TRUE AND THE NUMBERS OF THE USDA IS CURRENTLY USING ON THEIR BALANCE SHEET HOLD IT COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO MAKE THE ARGUMENT
TEASE:
WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE AGDAY IN JUST A MINUTE.
PITCH TO FARM PROGRESS:
HEY I WANT TO PERSONALLY INVITE YOU TO JOIN OUR TEAM AT THE FARM PROGRESS SHOW IN BOONE IOWA LATER THIS MONTH. ON TUESDAY AUGUST 30TH, TYNE MORGAN WILL HOST A MARKETING ROUNDTABLE AT THE CHANNEL EXHIBIT. THAT STARTS AT NOON...AND FIRST 250 GET FREE LUNCH. THEN ON WEDNESDAY WE'RE PLANNING A COLLEGE TV EVEN WITH TYNE, CHIP FLORY AND MACHINERY PETE GREG PETERSON. THAT WILL BE FROM ONE TO TWO ON WEDNESDAY. MAKE PLANS TO BE THERE AND GET MARKETING AND PRODUCTION INFORMATION YOU CAN'T FIND ANY WHERE ELSE.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN AND MIKE IT'S JUST ABOUT FOOTBALL SEASON. SOME OF THOSE KIDS ARE GETTING BACK TO PRACTICE AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE. THAT'S TRUE AT LEAST IT'S NOT THAT MASSIVE AREA OF HEAT THAT WE WERE SEEING. BUT YOU CAN SEE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE START THE DAY AND ONE OF THOSE AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THAT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY THIS MORNING.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS FIRST OF ALL FOR SHELBY MONTANA TODAY MUCH COOLER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. HIGH OF ONLY FIFTY NINE DEGREES. PRATT KANSAS MOSTLY SUNNY PLEASANTLY WARM HIGH OF EIGHTY SEVEN AND MANSFIELD OHIO A RATHER HUMID AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN SOME AREAS HIGH EIGHTY FOUR.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL TEAM UP WITH THE FOLKS OVER AT DROVERS FOR THIS WEEK'S FOCUS ON THE CATTLE INDUSTRY. AND LATER...FIND OUT HOW "PATIENCE IS A VIRTUE" -EVEN WHEN IT COMES TO AN EAR OF SWEET CORN. "IT'S CROP TOUR TIME AGAIN. WE'LL TALK ABOUT HOW TO USE THE DATA IN THE PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING FRIDAY ON AGDAY."
DROVERS TV REPORT:
A PULL BACK IN CASH CATTLE LAST WEEK TOOK MARGINS MODESTLY LOWER. FEEDYARDS ARE NOW LOSING AN AVERAGE OF 13 DOLLARS PER HEAD. THAT'S A 40 DOLLAR SWING FROM A MONTH AGO. BEEF PACKERS HOWEVER REMAINING IN THE BLACK LOGGING POSITIVE MARGIN AS PLUS 91 DOLLAR PER HEAD. RESEARCHERS AT KANSAS STATE SUGGESTS UP TO 50% OF ALL FED CATTLE ARRIVING AT THE PACKING HOUSE ARE BRUISED DURING TRANSPORTATION TO THE PLANT. HOWEVER, RESEARCHERS SAY IT IS A FIXABLE PROBLEM. A STUDY ON NEARLY 10,000 CATTLE FOUND AT LEAST ONE CARCASS BRUISE THAT REQUIRED TRIMMING AT THE PACKING PLANT ON 53% OF THE CARCASSES, AND THE LOCATION OF THOSE BRUISES ALONG THE DORSAL MIDLINE INDICATES THE INJURY OCCURS FROM HITTING THE GATE ON THE TRAILER WHEN LOADING AND UNLOADING.
TEASE:
TRAILER MANUFACTURERS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING TO MODIFY TRAILERS AND PROVIDE MORE CLEARANCE. DO YOU GET ANXIOUS FOR THAT FIRST TASTE OF SWEET CORN EACH SUMMER? NEXT MEET SOME FOLKS WHO ARE WILLING TO STAND,...AND WAIT.....UNTIL A SPECIAL DELIVERY SHOWS-UP. SET THE PULSE FOR THE BEEF INDUSTRY AND JOIN DROVERS' NATIONAL PANEL OF BEEF PRODUCERS. JUST TEXT THE WORD DROVERS TO 31313 TO SPEAK UP FOR THE BEEF INDUSTRY EACH MONTH. DROVERS PULSE IS SUPPORTED BY MERIAL.

IN THE COUNTRY:
WE'VE ALL HEARD OF PEOPLE WHO WAIT FOR HOURS, EVEN DAYS, FOR CONCERT TICKETS, THE LATEST VIDEO GAMING SYSTEM OR AN THE NEWEST I-PHONE. DURING HARVEST SEASON IN NORTH DAKOTA, FOLKS LINE UP EARLY IN THE MORNING FOR MARY GRAINER'S FAMOUS SWEET CORN. CLIFF NAYLOR FROM AGDAY AFFILIATE KFYR SAYS YOU BETTER GET THERE EARLY...OR YOU'RE OUT OF LUCK. EVERY MORNING DURING HARVEST SEASON WHEN MARY GRANER DRIVES UP WITH HER PICK-UP LOADED WITH SWEET CORN, CUSTOMERS ARE WAITING, WITH CASH IN HAND LONG BEFORE THE TAILGATE OPENS. IT'S FRESH, IT'S GOOD, IT'S HOME GROWN, IT'S READY TO EAT. GAYLE WEIGLE SHOWS UP THREE TIMES A WEEK TO BUY A SPECIAL VARIETY THAT'S ONLY AVAILABLE HERE. I'M CLIFF NAYLOR REPORTING FOR AGDAY. )
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR TYNE MORGAN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. FRIDAY ON AGDAY - OUR PARTNERS AT PROFARMER PREVIEW THEIR UPCOMING CROP TOUR.  WILL THEIR ESTIMATES MATCH THOSE OF USDA? WE'LL LOOK AT THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR WHICH COULD SHOW DRAMATIC CHANGES. WATCH US WEEKDAYS ON AGDAY.

 

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