AgDay Daily Recap -December 1, 2014

December 1, 2014 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
DECEMBER 1, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
GOOD PRICES, LOW FEED COSTS, OUR EXPERTS WEIGH-IN ON THE PROTEIN SECTOR. IN AGRIBUSINESS...GEARING-UP FOR 15 AND 16...THE GOVERNMENT TAKES AIM AT SMOG EMISSIONS. AND WORKING IN COTTON BEFORE WORKING BACK IN WASHINGTON....JUST THE MECHANICS OF HOW IT GOES ON, THINK GIVES ME A BETTER PERSPECTIVE ON REPRESENTING THEM. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
LIVESTOCK INDUSTRY:
GOOD MORNING I'M AL PELL IN FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS. STRONG PRICES AND LOW FEED COSTS CREATE A POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY PRODUCERS. AND FOR SOME, THOSE FACTORS ARE ENCOURAGING EXPANSION. AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
LIVESTOCK TAG:
USDA SAID IN ITS LATEST REPORT THAT EXPANSION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE POULTRY SECTION, NOT ONLY WITH THE NUMBER OF BIRDS, BUT ALSO EGG PRODUCTION. THE AGENCY ALSO EXPECTS HEAVIER FEEDER CATTLE WEIGHTS TO CONTINUE INTO 2015, WHICH WILL HELP MAKE UP FOR FEWER HEAD, AND DESPITE TALKS OF EXPANSION, USDA LOWERED THE PORK PRODUCTION FORECAST FOR BOTH 14 AND 15.
SMOG RULE:
THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION WANTS TO TIGHTEN THE AMOUNT OF A SMOG-FORMING POLLUTANT IN THE AIR. THE EPA IS RECOMMENDING TO LOWER THE LIMIT FOR GROUND-LEVEL OZONE IN A RANGE FROM 65 TO 70 PARTS PER BILLION. THE CLEAN AIR ACT REQUIRES EPA TO REVIEW THE STANDARDS EVERY FIVE YEARS. THE AGENCY LAST UPDATED THESE STANDARDS IN 2008, SETTING THEM AT 75 PARTS PER BILLION. E-P-A IS ALSO PROPOSING TO STRENGTHEN THE "SECONDARY" OZONE STANDARD. "SECONDARY" OZONE IS OFTEN ATTRIBUTED TO FUNGICIDES AND PESTICIDES. E-P-A EXPECTS TO ISSUE FINAL OZONE STANDARDS BY NEXT OCTOBER.
CROP WATCH:
CROPWATCH TAKES US TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE FARMERS ARE STILL HARVESTING. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS FROM THE AGDAY WEATHER-CENTER, MIKE.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, BOB UTTERBACK JOINS ME AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK. WE'LL DISCUSS MARKETING FOR THE 2015 AND 2016 MARKETING YEARS. PLUS, YOU'LL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE END OF THE SHOW TO FIND OUT HOW YOU CAN WIN A YAMAHA VIKING SIDE-BY-SIDE.
ANALYSIS:
BOB UTTBACK OF UTTERBACK MARKETING IS OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK BOB ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT IS WHAT WE SHOULD BE DOING FOR 2015 AS A FARMER AND MAYBE EVEN 2016 BECAUSE THAT'S THE SITUATION WE ARE RIGHT NOW AND NOBODY KNOWS WHERE PRICES ARE GOING TO GO. WELL WE KNOW I THINK PRETTY COMFORTABLY THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A 2 BILLION BUSHEL CARRYOVER IN CORN. OKAY.  A 450 TO 500 MILLION BUSHEL CARRYOVER IN BEANS WE'RE GOING TO PLAY WITH MAYBE THE YIELDS A LITTLE BUT AND I THINK THEY'LL GRAVITATE A LITTLE THEY'RE NOT GOING TO GO SO THAT'S PRETTY MUCH A KNOWN FACTOR NOW THE CARRYOVER GOING TO BE AT THOSE LEVELS FARMERS ARE STORING THE CORP IT'S BEING PUT AWAY AND THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THE MARKET RALLIED WE'VE HAD A SLOW HARVEST AND SO THE FARMERS AT THE LOW PRICES WELL I'M GOING TO GO BROKE I'M NOT GOING TO GO BROKE NOW MIGHT AS WELL SO THE FARMER STORED AWAY FROM THE MARKET AND HE HAD SOME REAL POWER THERE AND THAT'S WHAT THE MARKET I THINK ADDED TO THAT OCTOBER NOVEMBER BOUNCE THAT HE WAS SO UNRELUCTANT TO SELL IN THAT STORED MARKET BUT NOW THAT INNOVATORY GOT TO COME OUT HERE IN JAN FEB INPUT COSTS ARE NOT COMING DOWN FERTILIZER COSTS ARE COMING DOWN IN ANY SIGNIFICANCE I DO SEE A SENSE OF GUYS ARE ONLY GOING TO PUT THE MINIMUM AMOUNT OF FERTILIZER ON SO THE BIG DECISION JAN FEB MARCH IS DO I PLANT BEANS OR DO I PLANT CORN AND IN 015 BEANS THE RATIO IS ABOUT 2.6 IT'S BEEN AS HIGH AS 3 TO 1 AT 3 TO 1 IF FAVORS BEANS OVER CORN SO WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH THE NOVEMBER DECEMBER SOUTH AMERICAN CROP IF THE SOUTH AMERICAN CROP LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO BE MATERIALLY A DECENT CROP MAYBE DOWN A LITLE FROM EARLY ESTIMATES BUT OVERALL IT'S GOING TO BE A DECENT CROP AND WE GOT A DECENT CROP I THINK FARMERS ARE GOING TO PLANT MORE BEAN I THINK THERE'S MORE RISK AND I THINK SO I THINK BEANS IS THE COMMODITY THAT'S GOT MORE RISK LONG TERM EVEN WITH A STRONG DEMAND OUTLOOK I THINK BEANS 015 HAS MORE DOWNSIDE RISK THANK UPSIDE POTENTIAL BUT FARMER GOT BURNED THE BEARS GOT BURNED HERE. RIGHT. SO I DON'T SEE A LOT OF SELLING PRESSURE ON THIS MARKET EVERYBODY'S GOING TO BE LOOKING FOR THE JUNE JULY AUGUST PRICE RALLY AND IF WE DON'T HAVE WEATHER IT GETS NASTY BECAUSE WE'RE GOING TO HAVE ALL KINDS OF PRODUCT SO I WOULD CONTINUE TO URGE I KNOW IT'S IT'S GOING TO BE I'M THROWING IT OUT TO INTO THE WIND. OKAY, BUT PROTECTING THE FLOOR AND ROLLING IT UP BECAUSE WE JUST DON'T KNOW IF WE HAVE GOOD CROP NEXT YEAR WE'RE GOING TO GO THE CARRYOVER IS GOING TO GO UP IT'S FANTASTIC LONG TERM 016 017 DON'T GET TO BEARISH BECAUSE I THINK DEMAND IS BUILDING SO BE PREPARED FOR NEXT SPRING THOUGH IT'S GOING TO BE TOUGH. BOB UTTERBACK MARKETING OUR GUEST HERE ON AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT...
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, WE'RE GIVING AWAY A YAMAKA VIKING SIDE-BY SIDE. DETAILS IN ABOUT 10 MINUTES. NEXT MACHINERY PETE SAYS "GO NORTH" FOR GREAT DEALS.
MACH PETE:
IF YOU'RE LOOKING TO GET A HIGHER PRICE FOR YOUR FOUR WHEEL DRIVE TRACTOR, YOU MIGHT LOOK NORTH OF THE BORDER MACHINERY PETE EXPLAINS WHY.
ITC CONAWAY COTTON:
NOW THAT THE 2014 FARM BILL IS DONE AND BEING IMPLEMENTED, HOUSE COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN FRANK LUCSAS IS STEPPING DOWN. HE'S BEING REPLACED BY TEXAN MIKE CONAWAY. JUST BEFORE RETURNING TO WASHINGTON IN NOVEMBER, CONAWAY GOT A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE. GARY JOINER WITH THE TEXAS FARM BUREAU REPORTS..
VIKING GIVEAWAY:
BEFORE WE LEAVE YOU THIS MORNING, WE WANT TO TELL YOU ABOUT A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO WIN A "LIKE NEW" YAMAHA VIKING SIDE-BY-SIDE. IT'S A PERFECT ADDITION TO ANY FARM OR RANCH.

 

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