AgDay Daily Recap -December 11, 2014

December 11, 2014 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
DECEMBER 11, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY NEW CARRY OVER NUMBERS FROM USDA SHOW SHRINKING U.S. STOCKS BUT... WE GOT A BULLISH NUMBER AND A NEGATIVE PRICE PLUS, WASHINGTON WITH PLENTY OF WORK TO WRAP UP IN ITS LAME DUCK SESSION. IN AGRIBUSINESS...A LOOK AT THE 2015 ACREAGE BATTLE. PROBABLY AN AVERAGE DECLINE OF ABOUT A MILLION FOR CORN A MILLION HIGHER FOR SOYBEANS STEADY ON WHEAT FOR THE NEXT YEAR BEEF SUPPLIES FORECAST TO SHRINK IN 2015...AND HELP FOR OL' SAINT NICK...VOLUNTEERS CREATING CHRISTMAS MAGIC IN REMOTE VILLAGES OF ALASKA.AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
WASDE:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. EVEN AS THIS YEAR'S RECORD HARVEST COMES TO CLOSE, GRAIN STOCKS ARE FALLING...THANKS TO STRONG DEMAND...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
TAX EXTENDERS:
MORE MOVEMENT IN WASHINGTON AROUND EXTENDING A PACKAGE OF TAX BREAKS BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR...
BUDGET BILL:
MEANWHILE A ONE TRILLION DOLLAR SPENDING IS ON THE MOVE IN CONGRESS.
THE FUNDING IS NEEDED BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY TO AVOID A PARTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. THE HOUSE BILL HOWEVER INCLUDES PLENTY OF THER PROVISIONS INCLUDING MORE THAN 5 BILLION DOLLARS TO FIGHT EBOLA. MAKES CUTS TO EPA'S BUDGET---NOW 21 PERCENT LOWER THAN IT WAS IN 2010. EASES SOME SCHOOL LUNCH STANDARDS---AROUND WHOLE GRAINS AND SODIUM, AND APPROPRIATES MONEY FOR WRRDA, A MAJOR WATERWAYS MEASURE.
DRONES:
ALSO OUT OF WASHINGTON, THE FAA APPROVING FOUR MORE COMPANIES TO FLY COMMERCIAL DRONES. ONE OF WHICH WILL USE THE AERIAL TECHNOLOGY TO MAP RURAL PARTS OF OHIO. WHILE IT'S THOUGHT DRONES COULD BE USEFUL TOOL FOR FARMERS AND AG ENTERPRISES, THE FAA IS YET TO ROLL OUT COMPRESHENSIVE REGULATIONS FOR THE GENERAL USE OF COMMERCIAL DRONES WEIGHING UP TO 55 POUNDS. IT'S EXPECTED TO RELEASE A PROPOSAL BY THE END OF YEAR.  HOWEVER, THAT PROPOSAL IS LIKELY TO GENERATE ENORMOUS PUBLIC COMMENT AND COULD TAKE MONTHS OR YEARS TO BE APPROVED.
CROP WATCH:
EACH OF THE COASTS IS EXPERIENCING WET WEATHER, BUT THE SUN FINALLY POPPED OUT IN THE NATION'S MIDSECTION. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS IN CROPWATCH. MIKE.
CALIFORNIA WATER BILL:
THANKS MIKE. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ARE SEEING SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE THIS WEEK, BUT IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO RID THE STATE OF THE MASSIVE DROUGHT.
THAT'S WHY THE HOUSE APPROVED A MEASURE TUESDAY, ALLOWING STATE AND FEDERAL AGENCIES TO MOVE MORE WATER TO THE MAJOR FARMING AREAS. THE BILL PASSED 230 TO 182, BUT IT MAY STOP THERE, AS IT'S UNLIKELY TO RECEIVE ENOUGH VOTES IN THE SENATE.
OPPONENTS CALLING THE BILL A WATER-GRAB DESIGNED TO HELP FARMERS AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHERS.
ALMOND INDUSTRY:
AN INDUSTRY THAT COULD USE THE WATER IS THE STATE'S ALMOND GROWERS. A NEW STUDY FOUND THAT INDUSTRY IS VITAL TO THE GOLDEN STATE, GENERATING MORE THAN 100 THOUSAND JOBS AND 11 BILLION DOLLARS TO THE STATES GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT.
THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA STUDY ALSO FOUND ALMONDS ACCOUNT FOR A QUARTER OF THE STATE'S AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, WE TOLD YOU ABOUT THE LATEST WASDE REPORT. BUT HOW DID THE MARKETS REACT? WE HAVE INSIGHT FROM THE CME FLOOR.  AND A LOOK AT HOW PRICES MAY IMPACT THE ACREAGE BATTLE IN 2015.
INTEREST RATES:
LOW SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES COULD SOON BE A THING OF THE PAST.
ANALYSTS THINK THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL START RAISING RATES IN 2015.
THAT ANNOUNCEMENT WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE MEETING SCHEDULED FOR NEXT WEEK.SHORT-TERM INTEREST RATES HAVE HOVERED AROUND ZERO SINCE THE ECONOMY TOOK A DOWNTURN IN DECEMBER 2008.
ANALYSIS INTRO:
EARLIER IN THE YEAR, SIGNS POINTED TO MORE SOYBEAN ACRES THIS YEAR, LARGELY DUE TO PRICES. BUT RECENT BULLISH MOVES ARE MAKING CORN MORE FEASIBLE.
HOW WILL THE ACREAGE BATTLE SHAKE OUT?  TYNE MORGAN TALKS TO JULIANNE JOHNSTON IN THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS TYNE.
ANALYSIS:
ALRIGHT THANKS SO MUCH JULIANNE JOHNSTON HERE FROM PROFARMER JULIANNE WE'VE HEARD A LOT OF DIFFERENT ACREAGE ESTIMATES OUT THERE I MEAN THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS WE'RE GOING TO SEE FEWER CORN ACRES MORE SOYBEAN ACRES BUT WE'VE SEEN A LITTLE PRICE ADJUSTMENT RECENTLY SO DO YOU THINK THAT WE'LL SEE CORN ACRES ACTUALLY DROP AS MUCH AS SOME HAVE PROJECTED? WELL IT DEPENDS ON WHAT YOUR PROJECTION IS RIGHT NOW WE'RE LOOK FOR PROBABLY AN AVERAGE DECLINE OF ABOUT A MILLION FOR CORN A MILLION HIGHER FOR SOYBEANS STEADY ON WHEAT FOR THE NEXT YEAR RIGHT NOW THE CORN SOYBEAN PRICE RATIO IS A LITTLE MORE FRIENDLY FOR THE CORN MARKET BUT BECAUSE OF THE COST OF PRODUCING THE CORN CROP WE NEED TO SEE THE CORN MARKET STEP IN AND HOLD ON TO SOME OF THOSE ACRES I'M NOT SURE WE'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO BID FOR CORN ACRES THEN NEXT YEAR BUT WE COULD HOLD ON TO SOME MORE OF THOSE CORN ACRES AND THE CORN ACRES THAT WE LOST IN THE MIDWEST THE LAST FEW YEARS WE'RE NOT GOING TO LOSE A LOT MORE CORN ACRES IN THE MIDWEST THAT'S GOING TO COME FROM SOME OF FRINGE AREAS. WHEN WE TALK ABOUT SOME OF THESE YOU KNOW INCREASE IN SOYBEAN ACRES WHAT COULD STOP THAT FROM HAPPENING? WELL IT WOULD HAVE TO BE HIGHER CORN ACRES OR STEADY CORN ACRES BUT YOU KNOW LOSING AN ACRE OF CORN DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN YOUR GROWING AN ACRE OF SOYBEAN THERE'S OTHER CROPS ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU START TALKING ABOUT LOSING SOME OF THOSE CORN ACRES IN THE PLAINS BECAUSE WE HAVE LOTS OF OTHER CROPS SMALL GRAINS BARLEY AND SORGHUM THAT WE CAN GROW IN THOSE ARES. JULIANNE SORGHUM MY GOODNESS BASIS HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE I WAS TALKING TO TIM LUST OF SORGHUM PRODUCERS HE SAID LIKE 2 DOLLARS ABOVE IN THE GULF AREA FOR SORGHUM. WHAT'S IT GOING TO SORGHUM PRODUCTION IN THIS NEXT YEAR AND IMPORTANTLY FOR THOSE SORGHUM PRODUCERS IF YOUR GOING TO INCREASE YOUR SORGHUM ACRES LEARN FROM MISTAKES OF PAST AND ACTUALLY LOCK IN SOME OF THOSE PRICES. YEA THAT'S THE THING THEY HAVE NOT I MEAN THIS DEMAND OUT OF CHINA HAS BEEN REALLY IMPRESSIVE AND OF COURSE THAT HAS TO COME FROM SOMEWHERE YOU KNOW WE'RE LOSING DEMAND SOMEWHERE SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT ALL OF THE COMMODITIES WHEN WE LOOK AT YOU KNOW THE MAJOR ONES THE WHEAT COTTON SOYBEANS SORGHUM RICE COTTON WHAT ARE YOU THE MOST BULLISH ON NEXT YEAR? WELL I THINK IT'S EASIEST TO SAY THAT WE COULD FIND A PRICE A FLOOR EASIER IN THE CORN MARKET IF WE DO DECLINE ACRES WE HAVE DOMESTIC DEMAND COMING BACK STRONG FOR THE CORN MARKET FOREIGN DEMAND MIGHT BE IN QUESTION IF THE DOLLAR CONTINUES TO RISE WE SHOULD SEE THE DOLLAR CONTINUE TO RISE INTO 2015 AND THAT MIGHT IMPACT SOME OF THE CORN EXPORT DEMAND BUT I'M STILL CAN EXPECT I WOULD BE MORE BULLISH CORN I THINK THAT SOYBEAN AND WHEAT FUTURES MIGHT SEE MORE RANGE BOUND TRADE. ALRIGHT JULIANNE JOHNSTON PROFARMER WELL DON'T GO ANYWHERE WE HAVE MORE AGDAY WHEN WE RETURN.
YAMAHA GIVEAWAY:
DON'T FORGET THIS WEEK; WE'RE STILL TAKING NAMES FOR FOLKS TO WIN THIS YAMAHA VIKING SIDE BY SIDE. NOTHING SAYS FARM CHRISTMAS LIKE A FREE CAMOFLAGE 3 SEAT ATV.
SIX HUNDRED 86 CC'S, FOUR WHEEL DRIVE, PADDED HEAD RESTS AND A HAND HOLD BAR FOR THAT ROUGH TERRAIN. TO REGISTER TO WIN, GO TO AGDAY-DOT-COM AND CLICK ON THE YAMAHA VIKING BILLBOARD...IT'LL BE ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE WEBSITE. IF YOU CAN'T SEE IT, YOU MAY HAVE AN AD-BLOCKER ON YOUR BROWSER. TRY TURNING THE BLOCKER OFF OR USING A DIFFERENT BROWSER. YOU MUST 18 YEARS OR OLDER TO ENTER.
THE WINNER WILL BE ANNOUNCED BEFORE CHRISTMAS.
TEASE:
UP NEXT OUR BEEF TODAY REPORT LOOKS AT PRODUCTION EXPECTATIONS FOR NEXT YEAR.
BTR WASDE:
IN OUR BEEF TODAY REPORT, BEEF PRODUCTION IS ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE DOWN.
THE LATEST SUPPLY DEMAND REPORT HOWEVER SAYS IT COULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN ORIGINALY THOUGHT.
BTR PRICES:
CATTLE PRICES WERE MIXED ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING SHARP DECLINES EARLIER IN THE WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH AND LIVE AND FEEDER CATTLE FUTURES SAW LIMIT DOWN MOVES....FOLLOWING ON THE HEALS OF LOWER TRADE LAST WEEK.
ANALYSTS IN CHICAGO SAY THIS DOESN'T MEAN THE END OF HIGHER PRICES.
BTR COOL:
AS THE BATTLE OVER MANDATORY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN LABELING CONTINUES, CERTAIN GROUPS ARE URGING CONGRESS TO LEAVE IT ALONE.
MEAT EATERS:
A NEW STUDY OF VEGETARIANS AND VEGANS FINDS THAT MOST WHO ADOPT THE MEATLESS DIET, END UP ABANDONING IT EVENTUALLY. STUDY SAYING FIVE OUT OF SIX GO BACK TO EATING MEAT...AND JUST 2 PERCENT OF THE 11-THOUSAND SURVEYED CONSIDERED THEMSELVES VEGETARIAN OR VEGAN.
ITC ALASKAN SANTA:
FOR FOLKS IN THE LOWER 48 MOST HOLIDAY SEASONS IT'S RELATIVELY EASY TO STUMBLE ACROSS SANTA CLAUS TAKING REQUESTS AT A LOCAL MALL OR CHURCH.  THAT'S NOT ALWAYS THE CASE IN REMOTE PARTS OF ALASKA. BUT THANKS TO VOLUNTEERS IN A PROGRAM CALLED OPERATION SANTA AND THE ALASKA NATIONAL GUARD,
JOLLY ST. NICK IS ABLE TO GET TO SOME OF THOSE REMOTE VILLAGES AND SPREAD A LITTLE HOLIDAY MAGIC.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

 

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