AgDay Daily Recap -December 4, 2014

December 4, 2014 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
DECEMBER 4, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
TODAY ON AGDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW GRAIN PRICES COULD BE HERE TO STAY FOR AWHILE. WE'LL TELL YOU WHY. MEET THIS WOMAN ON THE FARM WHO SAYS ANY CHORE HER HUSBAND CAN DO, SHE CAN DO TOO. ARE THERE THINGS I FEEL I CAN'T DO? THERE ARE TINGS I FEEL THAT WILL BE HARD TO DO. IN AGRIBUSINESS....WATCHING SOUTH AMERICA... PEOPLE LOOK AT THE BRAZIL CROP AND SAY OH MY GOSH IT'S GOING TO BE SO BIG AND THEN WE GOT TO PLAY PROTECTION WITH CORN. COULD HIGH CATTLE PRICES BLEED INTO 2015? OUR PARTNERS AT PRO FARMER WEIGH IN.
AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
RABOBANK OUTLOOK:
GOOD MORNING I'M BETSY JIBBEN IN FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AS YOU MAKE CROPPING DECISIONS FOR NEXT YEAR, YOU SHOULD FACTOR IN ANOTHER YEAR OF LIKELY LOW PRICES...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
OTHER COMMODITIES:
AS FAR AS SOME OTHER COMMODITY PRICES, ROB-O-BANK SEES SOY MEAL PRICES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE PAST TWO YEARS, BUT GLOBAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STRONG.
SUGAR PRICES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE LOWER. AS FAR AS COTTON - THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS. LARGE GLOBAL STOCKS WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER PRICE RECOVERY. ALTHOUGH RABOBANK 'DOES' SEE FEWER COTTON ACRES PLANTED NEXT YEAR IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WHICH COULD SUPPORT PRICES.
TAX BREAKS:
NOW TO WASHINGTON - THE HOUSE IS MOVING TO EXTEND A 45 BILLION DOLLAR PACKAGE OF EXPIRED TAX BREAKS THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR. THE BILL WOULD ENABLE FARMERS, BUSINESSES AND INDIVIDUALS TO CLAIM THE TAX BREAKS ON THEIR 2014 RETURNS. BUT BEYOND DECEMBER 31ST, THEIR FATE WOULD BE UNCERTAIN.
SENATE DEMOCRATIC LEADERS SEEM NONCOMMITTAL ABOUT WHETHER THEY WOULD ACCEPT THE BILL OR TRY TO CHANGE IT. TIME IS SHORT BECAUSE THE HOUSE PLANS TO ADJOURN FOR THE YEAR NEXT WEEK. THE WHITE HOUSE SIGNALED TUESDAY IT WOULD SUPPORT A SHORT-TERM PACKAGE.
CROP WATCH:
CROPWATCH TAKES US FROM THE CORN BELT TO CALIFORNIA, WHERE THE STATE IS RECEIVING A MUCH NEEDED-DRINK OF WATER. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS FROM THE AGDAY WEATHER-CENTER. GOOD MORNING, MIKE.
EWA PROFILE:
OUR PARTNERS FROM TOP PRODUCER MAGAZINE ARE HOSTING THE 'EXECUTIVE WOMEN IN AG" CONFERENCE IN CHICAGO THIS WEEK. IT DRAWS FEMALE FARM OPERATORS FROM ACROSS THE COUNTRY. ONE OF THOSE WOMAN ATTENDING THE CONFERENCE COMES FROM SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. SARAH PETERSON TOLD ME SHE'S NOT AFRAID TO GET A LITTLE MUD ON HER BOOTS TO HELP KEEP THE FARM OPERATING SUCCESFULLY.
TEASE:
PLENTY MORE AHEAD ON AGDAY INCLUDING OUR MORNING STOP AT THE CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE. PLUS, FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL LOOKS AT THE SOUTH AMERICAN BEAN CROP.
CME REPORT:
IN AGRIBUSINESS TODAY - LET'S SEE HOW THE COMMODITY MARKETS CLOSED WEDNESDAY. FOR THAT, WE HEAD TO THE C-M-E FLOOR IN CHICAGO.
ANALYSIS INTRO:
AS WE REPORTED EARLIER, ROB-OH-BANK IS EXPECTING GRAIN PRICES TO REMAIN LOW IN 2015. ONE REASON WE COULD SEE LOW SOYBEAN PRICES IS DUE TO A LARGE SOYBEAN CROP EXPECTED OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA. FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL TAKES A CLOSER LOOK IN THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS.
ANALYSIS:
OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK ON AGDAY IS ANDY SHISSLER ROACH AG MARKETING ANDY I LIKED TO TALK TO YOU A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN SOUTH AMERICA RIGHT NOW A LOT OF PEOPLE TEND TO FORGET THAT THE IT'S GOING TO BE FOURTH THEIR JULY OUR FOURTH OF JULY IS GOING TO BE CELEBRATED PRETTY QUICK IN SOUTH AMERICA IN TERMS OF THE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER THEY'RE ABOUT DONE PLANTING OR WAY LONG. >> YEA I THINK THERE ARE CLOSE TO 75% DONE. YEA, AND SO LIKE THIS WOULD BE KIND OF THEIR DEAD TIME ON WEATHER BEFORE THINGS RAMP UP KIND OF LIKE THEY DO IN THE US ONCE WE GET PLANTED THERE'S NOT MUCH YOU CAN DO TO HURT TO HURT BEANS FOR A GOOD MONTH AND SO I THINK FROM HERE YOU'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND IT GETS REALLY IMPORTANT RIGHT AFTER THE TURN OF THE YEAR SO LOOKING AT THE AMOUNT OF ACRES THEY PUT IN WHICH IS BEARISH YOU KNOW MAYBE THEY HAVE A WEATHER ISSUE WHICH COULD DRAW DOWN SOME STOCKS I GUESS WE'LL SEE HOW THAT DEVELOPS BUT THAT'S WORTH AT LEAST A DOLLAR OF VOLATILITY RIGHT THERE IN BEAN AND COULD BE MORE BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN SOME LINGERING DRYNESS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THEIR BEAN PRODUCTION AREAS SO WE'LL SEE.  IN OTHER WORDS THEY MAY NOT HAVE AS GOOD A CROP AS WE ANTICIPATED. WE MAY NOT WE MAY NOT AND THEY'RE KIND OF DUE TO MAYBE GO A LITTLE SUBPAR WE'VE SEEN WILD WEATHER EVERYWHERE IN THE WORLD OVER THE LAST 5 6 YEARS IT CAN HAPPEN BUT YOU KNOW MOVING HERE LOOKING AT OUR SPRING WITH BEAN ACRES PEOPLE LOOK AT THE BRAZIL CROP AND SAY OH MY GOSH IT'S GOING TO BE SO BIG AND THEN WE GOT TO PLAY PROTECTION WITH CORN SO WE NEED TO GO PLANT ALL BEAN ACRES AND I WOULDN'T DO THAT AND I WOULDN'T RELY ON BEANS TO SAVE ME FOR NEXT SPRING I REALLY KIND OF THINK THAT THE PRICES IN CORN AND BEANS ARE KIND OF EVEN OUT TO WHERE WE'LL KEEP MOST OF THE CORN ACRES AND THERE’S KIND OF A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD AND THE BEAN MARKET ENDS UP BEING BETTER NEXT YEAR THAN YOU THINK BECAUSE EVERYBODY THINKS THIS IS GOING TO BE REALLY BAD I KIND OF THINK THERE WILL BE A WAY THAT CORN ACRES DO GO IN AND THAT BEANS AGAIN OVER PERFORM IN THE MARKET AND RIGHT NOW BETWEEN NOW AND SPRING YOU'LL DEVELOP A BIG SHORT CAUSE EVERYBODY IS GOING TO SELL ALL YOUR BEANS. RIGHT. THERE NEVER GOING TO BE WORTH ANYTHING SO I WOULD BE REALLY CAREFUL WITH THAT BEANS HAVE OVER PERFORMED FOR 10 PLUS YEARS AND MY GOSH ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN IN THIS BRAZIL AND OUR ACRES MIX INTO THE SPRING AND SO LIKE I JUST NOT GOING TO GET TO BEARISH BEANS RIGHT NOW. OKAY ANDY SHISSLER ROACH AG MARKETING HAS BEEN OUR GUEST HERE AT AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT.
WX:
AND WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. WE ARE WATCHING THAT STORM SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED CALIFORNIA WITH A WHOLE BUNCH OF RAIN NOW MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNER REGION. WE ALSO HAVE ANOTHER STORM LURKING OFF THE WEST COAST, WHICH IS FANTASTIC NEWS FOR CALIFORNIA. I KNOW BAD REPORTS HAVE BEEN SAID. IT IS BAD IN THAT SITUATION BUT OBVIOUSLY THE RAIN IS MUCH NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATING MOST OF THE EAST BUT WE DO HAVE SOME MOISTURE THERE IN THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS WE PUT THE MAPS INTO MOTION, YOU CAN SEE HOW EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO MOVE ON OFF INTO THE EAST. WE WILL SEE THAT CONTINUES TO DO THAT WITH SOME RAIN MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNER REGION AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOWS AS WELL. ON INTO KANSAS AS WE MOVE INTO LATER TODAY. LATER TONIGHT, LOOK AT THAT WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN IN MUCH OF KANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SEASON THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE. IT'S NOT SO NICE NOW IF YOU HAPPEN TO HAVE SOME CORN INTO THE FIELDS. HOPEFULLY NOT TOO MUCH IS LEFT...YOU CAN SEE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY EVENING, RAIN SPREADS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND I KNOW THERE IS SOME CORN IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY STILL IN THE FIELDS. ANYTHING YOU CAN DO TO GET THAT OUT BEFORE THAT RAIN COMES WILL BE GOOD NEWS. YOU CAN SEE THAT STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING SOME MORE RAIN IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. A LOT OF IT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ADDING ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS, YOU CAN SEE HOW WE CONTINUE TO SEE THAT RAIN INTO THE WEST AND THEN WE SEE A NICE LITTLE AREA FROM HALF TO ONE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM KANSAS CITY TOWARDS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA. LOOKING AT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WE'VE SEEN A LITTLE BIT IN THE NORTHEAST AND A LITTLE BIT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. ADD ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS, NOT A LOT EXCEPT FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS GOING TO GET SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE CORN BELT, BUT LITTLE AT ALL. AS YOU CAN SEE THIS AFTERNOON, TWENTIES AND THIRTIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES…THE HIGHS IN THE 70'S ALONG THE GULF COAST... BY TONIGHT, THE REAL COLD AIR IS IN CANADA, BUT ALONG THE BORDER WE WILL SEE SOME SINGLE DIGITS PERHAPS. YET MOST AREAS UP THERE WILL BE IN THE TWENTIES AND THIRTIES ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE 70'S INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...THAT'S IN THE 70'S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST…YOU CAN STILL SEE 30'S AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT'S A LOT MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE'S THE JET STREAM. IT'S KIND OF A SPLIT FLOW. THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR STILL TRYING TO COME IN THE NORTH BUT A LOT OF THAT GETS CUT OFF AS WE GO WITH A ZONAL FLOW FOR AWHILE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME COLD AIR THAT COMES SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME. EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR RENO, NEVADA TODAY, IT'S VARIABLY CLOUDY. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. THE HIGH IS 52 DEGREES. FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA, PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD…THE AFTERNOON HIGH IS JUST 30. IN KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE, MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SHOWER OR TWO LIKELY THE HIGH IS 57.
YAMAHA GIVEAWAY:
IT WON'T FIT UNDER THE CHRISTMAS TREE, BUT THIS YAMAHA VIKING SIDE-BY-SIDE COULD BE A NICE GIFT TO YOURSELF OR SOMEONE ELSE. WE'RE GIVING AWAY THIS VIKING TO A LUCKY AGDAY VIEWER. IT HAS PLENTY OF POWER WITH A SIX-86 C-C ENGINE. IT COMES AS A THREE SEATER WITH PADDED HEAD RESTS AND A HAND-HOLD-BAR. THIS ONE IS SLIGHTLY USED. PROFARMER'S CHIP FLORY USED IT DURING A RECENT "OUTDOORS ON THE FARM" TAPING.. TO REGISTER TO WIN, GO TO AGDAY-DOT-COM AND CLICK ON THE YAMAHA VIKING BILLBOARD. IT'S THAT SIMPLE. YOU MUST 18 YEARS OR OLDER TO ENTER. THE WINNER WILL BE ANNOUNCED BEFORE CHRISTMAS.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND AL PELL. I'M BETSY JIBBEN. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

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