AgDay Daily Recap -Feb. 1, 2016

February 1, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY


FEB. 1, 2016
OPENING HEADLINES:

COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - THE AG DEPARTMENT LAYS-OUT THE LATEST ESTIMATES ON THE NATIONS CATTLE HERD. PLUS, LEADING CATTLE ANALYSTS ROLLS OUT MARKET AND PRICE PREDICTIONS.
"WE THINK PRICES IN 2016 AREN'T GOING TO BE A LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE CLOSED IN 2015."
MACHINERY PETE DIGS THROUGH AUCTIONS AND HIS OWN WEBSITE TO FIND THE LATEST TRENDS IN TILLAGE EQUIPMENT.
AND REMEMBERING FLORIDA’S STORIED PAST IN THE CATTLE INDUSTRY.
"MY JOB AS I SEE IT IS TO MAKE SURE THAT THE FLORIDA COW HUNTER, A UNIQUE AMERICAN HERO, ISN'T FORGOTTEN."
2016 OUTLOOK FOR CATTLE MARKETS:
GOOD MORNING I'M BETSY JIBBEN. WE'LL HEAR FROM CLINTON GRIFFITHS AS HE REPORTS FROM THE CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION. 
TOPPING OUR NEWS THIS MONDAY MORNING -THE TURBULENCE OF THE CATTLE MARKET, AND THE OM-AMUS WORDS USED TO DESCRIBE IT. PLUS, USDA RELEASES THE LATEST CATTLE INVENTORY REPORT.
BEEF PRODUCERS AT THE CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION JAMMED INTO THE CONVENTION HALL TO HEAR THE 2016 OUTLOOK FROM SOME OF THE LEADING ANALYSTS IN THE BUSINESS. 
EACH YEAR, CATTLEFAX PRESENTS ITS EXPECTATIONS FOR WHAT COULD COME IN THE NEAR AND DISTANT FUTURE FOR THE BEEF SECTOR. AND WITH THE MARKET VOLATILITY WE WITNESSED AT THE END OF THE YEAR, THERE'S A LOT INTEREST.
CATTLE FAX C-E-O, RANDY BLACH, SAID IN HIS CLOSING COMMENTS THAT THIS IS THE 'SECOND MOST VOLATILE MARKET WE'VE HAD IN HISTORY. IT'S MORE VOLATILE THAN WHAT WE HAD WITH BSE."
PRODUCTION ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE:
CATTLE FAX ANALYSTS SAY BEEF PRODUCERS CAN EXPECT INCREASED PRODUCTION FROM A GROWING COW HERD. 
THEY ALSO EXPECT DOMESTIC DEMAND COULD FALL.  CLINTON TALKED WITH THE SENIOR ANALYST FROM CATTLE FAX ABOUT THEIR OUTLOOK.

CATTLE EXPERT REMAINS OPTIMISTIC FOR PRICE EXPANSION:
JOINING ME I HAVE KEVIN GOODS, SENIOR ANALYST AT CATTLE FACTS. KEVIN, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE CATTLE FACTS PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD--THOSE NUMBERS JUST COMING OUT. WHAT DO YOU SEE, WHERE DO WE STAND IN THIS MARKET?> WELL, AS WE THINK ABOUT THE MARKET FROM A BIG PICTURE STAND POINT, WE HAVE HAD A TREMENDOUS RUN UP WITH SOME THINGS IN 2014 AND OF COURSE 2015, THE MARKET CONTRACTED AND IT WASN'T JUST CATTLE IT WAS ALL OTHER COMMODITIES BEFORE US ACTUALLY. IF WE WANT TO LOOK UP PORK, POULTRY AND BEEF, LAST THEY ALL TOOK THEIR TURN DRIFTING LOWER, SO AS WE FINISHED LAST YEAR AND WE LOOK FORWARD TO 2016, WE THINK PRICES IN 2016 AREN'T GOING TO BE A LOT DIFFERENT THAN WHERE WE CLOSED UP LATE IN 2015. YOU KNOW FAT CATTLE MARKET PROBABLY AVERAGES 130, 135, FEEDER CATTLE MAY BE 165, CALVES ARE 195, SO YES THAT IS WELL OFF OUR HIGHS, BUT STILL FROM A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE IT STILL SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH IN THE COW, CALF SIDE TO SEE CONTINUED EXPANSION AGAIN THIS YEAR.>
CATTLE HERD NUMBERS 3 PERCENT HIGHER THAN YEAR BEFORE:
MEANWHILE USDA RELEASING ITS SEMI ANNUAL CATTLE INVENTORY REPORT.
IT SHOWS THE THE NATION'S HERD AT 92 MILLION HEAD, THREE PERCENT HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO. 
BREAKING IT DOWN -THE NUMBER OF BEEF COWS CLIMBED FOUR PERCENT. THE NUMBER OF MILK COWS IS UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS YEAR.
NO NEW AVIAN FLU CASES CONFIRMED:
IT'S BEEN MORE THAN TWO WEEKS SINCE WE FIRST HEARD ABOUT AVIAN FLU SHOWING-UP IN A DOWNSTATE INDIANA TURKEY FARM.
THAT ONE CASE WAS A HIGHLY PATHOGENIC STRAIN OF H-7-N-8. NINE OTHER CASES WERE DISCOVERED IN DUBOIS COUNTY, BUT THEY WERE DECLARED TO BE LOW-PATH.
IN AN EFFORT TO CONTAIN THE OUTBREAK, ABOUT 400THOUSAND BIRDS WERE DESROYED. AND A QUARANTINE ZONE DOUBLED IN SIZE. 
SINCE THEN, THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW CONFIRMED CASES. HOWEVER, INDIANA'S BOARD OF ANIMAL HEALTH, ALONG WITH USDA, REMAIN VIGILANT. 
CROP COMMENTS:
LET'S CHECK IN WITH MIKE HOFFMAN FOR THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. MIKE
<MIKE HOFFMAN SPEAKS>
GOOD MORNING BETSY LET'S START OFF IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
NATE HANSEN SAYS THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED A NICE SET OF WARM DAYS.
HE'S TRYING TO GET AS MUCH OUTSIDE WORK DONE AS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE NEXT WINTER STORM HITS.
TEASE:
IN ANALYSIS-CATTLE FAX ANALYZES THE OUTLOOK FOR FEEDLOT OPERATORS.
AND STICK AROUND, MACHINERY PETE IS HERE!
STICK AROUND FOLKS, COMING UP WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT INCREASING DEMAND FOR GOOD, USED VERTICAL TILLAGE TOOLS.
PLUS, WE MOUNT-UP FOR A CATTLE DRIVE -IN THE LAND OF MICKEY MOUSE!
CME:
LET'S SEE HOW THE MARKETS CLOSED AT THE END OF LAST WEEK. FOR THAT, WE HEAD TO THE CME FLOOR IN CHICAGO.
WE HAVE SEEN QUITE A RANGE ON THE SOYBEANS HERE TODAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT ANYWHERE FROM 3-12 CENTS AND IT HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A LOT. A LOT OF CONCERN WITH CHINA THAT THEY HAVE OVER BOOKED AND THEY ARE STARTING TO CANCEL. SOME ON THE INVENTORIES THAT THEY ARE HOLDING OUT ON. THERE ARE A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE CORN MARKET TOO. WE ARE SEEING THAT CHINA IS ALSO CANCELING ON THE CORN RIGHT NOW. BUT AGAIN WE'RE GETTING TO THE END OF THE MONTH. THEY ARE GETTING RID OF THE SHORTS. EVERYBODY WANTS TO START ON MONDAY WITH A CLEAN SLATE, SO WE ARE SEEING SOME UNBELIEVABLY HIGH PRICES TODAY. VOLUME WAS PRETTY GOOD. SO WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK, WE ARE LOOKING FOR THE BEANS AND DEFINITELY THE WHEAT TO PULL BACK. CORN MAY HOLD ITS GROUND A LITTLE BIT. WE WILL KEEP OUR EYES OPEN ON THAT. THIS IS GARY KOZLOWSKI WITH FARR FINANCIAL, COMINGLING AT YOU FROM THE CME GROUP. NOW, BACK TO YOU GUYS.
FEEDLOT PROFITABILITY:
IN ANALYSIS-WE RETURN TO THE CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION. CLINTON LOOKS AT THE CATTLE-FAX OUTLOOK FOR FEEDLOT OPERATORS, CLINTON.
I HAVE KEVIN GOOD, CATTLEFAX JOINING ME TODAY TO TALK ABOUT REALLY WHAT HAS BEEN GOING ON IN THE FEEDLOT. WE SAW A PRETTY TOUGH STRETCH THERE FOR THE FEEDLOTS THAT END LAST YEAR, BUT PART OF WHAT WAS GOING ON IN SOME OUR FEEDLOTS WAS HIGHER CATTLE WEIGHTS. DO WE EXPECT MORE OF THAT?>  WELL, YOU KNOW IF WE THINK ABOUT THE DRIVING FACTOR AT THE END OF LAST YEAR IN PARTICULAR FOR THE HEAVY WEIGHTS, RECORD HEAVY WEIGHTS IN FACT, WE HAD SOME THINGS WORKING AGAINST US FROM A FEED LOT STANDPOINT. THE COST, THE GAIN AT .75, .80 CENTS A POUND. WE ARE GETTING PAID A 1.40 FOR THOSE CATTLE. TELLS US TO FEED THEM LONGER, THEY WERE LOSING MONEY, SO YOU FEED THEM LONGER, THE SWAP ON FEEDER CATTLE, FEEDER CATTLE WERE HIGH, SO YOU DIDN'T WANT TO REPLACE THEM. SO ALL THOSE FACTORS CREATED A BACKLOG OF BIG CATTLE.

NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, WHAT IS THE FORECAST LOOKING LIKE AS WE START THIS WEEK. WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT THE BIG STORM. YOU CAN SEE IT THERE IN THE JETSTREAM THE BIG TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS PUSHING THAT STORM OUT AHEAD OF IT, INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WE SPEAK. SO IF YOU LIVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, YOU WILL REALLY WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR LOCAL FORECASTS, BECAUSE IT REALLY JUST DEPENDS ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS STORM MOVES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. YOU ARE GOING TO SEE VERY HEAVY SNOWS THIS WEEK, DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE GREAT LAKES, SO SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT’S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY; NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR HOBBES, N.M., PARTLY SUNNY AND WINDY TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURE UP TO 64 DEGREES, TAKING A LOOK AT THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY, ACTUALLY IN MICHIGAN, IRONWOOD, CLOUDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW, HIGH OF JUST 21 AND RALEIGH, N.C. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS, HIGH OF 67.

TEASE:
AHEAD ON AGDAY, MACHINERY PETE DIGS INTO TILLAGE TOOLS.
AND PUT ON YOUR COWBOY HAT AND BOOTS...AS WE RIDE ALONG ON AN OLD-FASHIONED CATTLE DRIVE.. A REMARKABLE EVENT HOSTED ONLY ONCE A DECADE.
MACHINERY PETE:
WELL, MACHINERY PETE HAS PUT TOGETHER SOME RESEARCH ON WHAT TYPES OF EQUIPMENT FARMERS ARE SEARCHING FOR ON HIS WEBSITE-AND VERTICAL TILLAGE TOOLS SEEM TO BE THE HOT ITEM.
HERE'S PETE.
EXPANDED PANAMA CANAL FINAL OPENING TO BE DELAYED:
IT APPEARS THE COUNTRY OF PANAMA WILL MISS ITS TARGET DATE TO OPEN THE EXPANDED PANAMA CANAL.  THE CANAL AUTHORITY SAYS THE PROJECT IS NOW 96 PERCENT COMPLETED. THE COMPANY HANDLING THE PROJECT SAYS CONSTRUCTION WILL BE COMPLETED IN APRIL. BUT INITIAL TESTING SHOWED SOME SEEPAGE. ADDITIONAL STEEL REINFORCEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED, WHICH WILL DELAY THE OFFICIAL OPENING UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR.
THE PROJECT BEGAN IN 2007, THE CANAL AUTHORITY SAYS THE EXPANSION WILL DOUBLE CANAL CAPACITY AND ALLOW FOR THE TRANSIT OF LARGER AND WIDER VESSELS.

MILK OVERSUPPLY SLASHES ENGLAND DAIRY PRODUCER INCOMES:
ENGLAND'S DAIRY PRODUCERS WILL SEE THEIR INCOMES FALL BY ALMOST HALF THIS YEAR.
ACCORDING TO A BLOOMBERG ARTICLE, THEIR DAIRY INCOMES WILL AVERAGE 46 THOUSAND POUNDS, OR 66THOUSAND DOLLARS PER FARM IN ENGLAND FOR THE 2015 THROUGH 2016 SEASON THAT STARTED IN MARCH.
THE DEPARTEMNT FOR ENIVRONMENT, FOOD ,AND RURAL AFFAIRS SAYS THAT FIGURE IS THE LOWEST IN 9 YEARS.
EUROPEAN PRODUCERS ARE STRUGGLING DUE TO A GLUT OF MILK DUE OVERSUPPLY, SLOWER DEMAND AND SOME COUNTRIES BANS ON DAIRY PRODUCTS.
TEASE:
NEXT WE RIDE ALONG DURING A CATTLE DRIVE IN FLORIDA, AS HISTORIANS AND CATTLEMEN AND WOMAN PAY TRIBUTE TO THEIR ROOTS.
IN THE COUNTRY:
IN A STATE KNOWN MORE FOR AMUSEMENT PARKS, SPRING BREAK AND ROCKET LAUNCHES, PEOPLE OFTEN FORGET THAT FLORIDA HAS A RICH HERITAGE IN CATTLE AND COWBOYS. 
THAT'S WHY EVERY TEN YEARS, HISTORIANS HOST THE "GREAT FLORIDA CATTLE DRIVE". FOR A WEEK, CURRENT RANCHERS AND "CITY SLICKERS" COME TOGETHER TO DRIVE A HERD OF CATTLE.
JOSH RUH-PLOE-GULL FROM THE ASSOCIATED PRESS SAYS THE DRIVE DRAWS ATTENTION TO FLORIDA'S DEEP COWBOY HISTORY.
CLOSING:
SPANISH EXPLORERS BROUGHT HORSES AND CATTLE TO THE "NEW WORLD" IN THE 16TH CENTURY. THAT MAKES FLORIDA THE NATION'S OLDEST CATTLE-RAISING STATE.
TODAY, FLORIDA'S CATTLE INDUSTRY RANKS 17TH IN HERD SIZE IN THE NATION. 
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. HOPE YOU HAVE A GOOD WEEK AHEAD.

PROMO:
I'M BETSY JIBBEN. TUESDAY ON AGDAY, ARE YOU MAKING ANY CHANGES TO YOUR PLANTING INTENTIONS THIS SPRING? WE'LL LOOK AT SOME POSSIBILITIES IN ANALYSIS. FOR NEWS THAT'S MOVING THE MARKETS, TUNE IN DAILY TO AGDAY.

 

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