AgDay Daily Recap -Feb. 2, 2016

February 2, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
FEB. 2, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -COULD ONE OF THE WORLD'S MOST PROMISING BEEF MARKETS REOPEN ITS DOORS TO U.S. BEEF?
PLUS, A HISTORIC AUCTION BARN BURNS IN KENTUCKY. IN AGRIBUSINESS...THE WORLD IMPACT ON THIS YEAR'S ACREAGE BATTLE.
“I WAS EXPECTING LIKE EVERYBODY LOWER ACRES BECAUSE OF LOW PRICE BUT THAT'S NOT THE CASE.”
AND UNIQUE IN SIZE AND SHAPE THESE COWBOYS’ HATS ARE TOP OF MIND FOR WEARERS IN SAN DIEGO.
CHINA COULD ACCEPT MORE AMERICAN BEEF IMPORTS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS.
IT'S BEEN MORE THAN A DECADE SINCE AMERICAN BEEF FOUND IT'S WAY DIRECTLY TO CHINA. INDUSTRY LEADERS SAY THAT COULD BE CHANGING AND SOON.
TRADE AND EXPORT POLICY FINDING IT'S WAY TO THE TOP OF THE LIST AT THIS YEAR'S CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION IN SAN DIEGO.
CHINA STOPPED IMPORTS OF U.S. BEEF BACK IN 2003 FOLLOWING THE CASE OF B-S-E IN WASHINGTON STATE. IN 2006, CHINA BEGAN ACCEPTING JUST A FEW BONELESS BEEF PRODUCTS.
NOW FOLKS WITH THE U.S. MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION SAY THE WORLD'S LARGEST IMPORTER OF AG GOODS MAY BE READY TO FULLY REOPEN THE MARKET. YOU KNOW 13 YEARS AGO WHEN WE HAD OUR MARKET CLOSED AS A RESULT OF BSE THE CHINESE CAME UP WITH ABOUT 22 DEMANDS AND WE HAVE BASICALLY I THINK ANSWERED ALL OF THEIR DEMANDS EXCEPT FOR ONE THAT'S TRACEABILITY.
CHINA WILL VISIT AMERICAN PACKING PLANTS:
BUT I'M ENCOURAGED BY THE FACT THAT THE CHINESE WILL BE SENDING A DELEGATION TO THE U.S. HERE VERY SOON. THE U.S.MEF WILL BE WORKING WITH THEM TAKING THEM TO SOME PACKING PLANTS AND WE'RE GOING TO SOME FEEDLOTS AND TAKE A LOOK AT RECORDS AND THIS TYPE OF THING SO WE'RE HOPEFUL THAT IF THAT'S THE CASE THE CHINESE COULD COME BACK AND MAYBE CHINA HAS FASTEST GROWING BEEF MARKET IN THE WORLD:
BY SUMMER WE'LL HAVE ACCESS TO THE CHINESE MARKET. BECAUSE CHINA IS CHINA. SENG SAYS THE U.S. ALREADY EXPORTS 25 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF PRODUCT TO CHINA EACH YEAR. IT'S BEEN THE FASTEST GROWING BEEF MARKET IN THE WORLD FOR THE LAST DECADE. RABOBANK FORECASTS CHINA'S BEEF CONSUMPTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...NEEDING AN ADDITIONAL 2.2 MILLION TONNES BY 2025.
TPP OPPORTUNITY FOR CATTLE MARKETS:
TRADE AND MORE SPECIFICALLY THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP TOPPING THE LIST OF POLICY CONCERNS FOR THE NCBA IN 2016.
IT'S WASHINGTON GROUP CALLS T-P-P ONE OF THE BIGGEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR CATTLEMEN AND WOMEN IN DECADES. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE DOWNWARD PRESSURE WE'VE HAD IN THE MARKETS OVER THE TAIL END OF 2015 AND HERE INTO 2016 WE'RE TRYING TO FIND ALL OF THE VALUE WE CAN AND ONE OPPORTUNITY IS BEING ABLE TO SEND OUR PRODUCT OVERSEAS. THINGS LIKE BEEF TONGUE FOR EXAMPLE. WHERE THE JAPANESE WILL PAY A PREMIUM FOR THAT PRODUCT. WELL THE PROBLEM WITH THE JAPANESE ACCESS IS RIGHT NOW WE HAVE A 38.5 PERCENT TARIFF ON OUR PRODUCT AND BASICALLY A TAX. THE TPP TAKES THAT DOWN TO 9 PERCENT ON MOST CUTS AND ON CUTS LIKE THE BEEF TONGUE IT TAKES IT DOWN TO ZERO PERCENT. THAT'S SOMETHING WERE WE CAN MAKE MONEY AND THAT'S WHY WE'RE SUPPORTING THE TPP WE THINK PRESIDENT OBAMA THE US TRADE REPRESENTATIVE AND SECRETARY VILSACK HAVE DONE A GREAT JOB NEGOTIATING A VERY GOOD DEAL FOR CATTLE PRODUCERS.
TPP TO BE SIGNED LATER THIS WEEK:
SPEAKING OF TPP--LATER THIS WEEK, A GROUP OF TRADE MINISTERS FROM THE 12 NATIONS IN THE DEAL WILL SIT DOWN TO OFFICIALLY SIGN THE AGREEMENT.
TOKYO:
WHILE THE NEGOTIATION'S FINISHED SEVERAL MONTHS AGO, THE FINAL PAPERWORK WILL BE PRESENTED THIS THURSDAY IN NEW ZEALAND.
MEANWHILE, JAPAN'S TOP NEGOTIATOR ON THE DEAL HAS QUIT AMID A FINANCIAL SCANDAL, POSSIBLY SLOWING TOKYO'S RATIFICATION OF THE 12 NATION PACT.
THE MINISTER'S RESIGNED AMID A BRIBERY SCANDAL. WITHOUT TOKYO'S RATIFYING OF THE TPP, THE UNITED STATES GETS NOTHING FROM JAPAN—NO TRADE CONCESSIONS FROM THE LARGEST OF THE 11 OTHER TPP PARTNERS. EXPERTS CURRENTLY DOUBT THE SCANDAL WILL KEEP THE DEAL FROM FINAL APPROVAL--BUT SAY IT COULD SLOW THE PROCESS DOWN.
MALAYSIA RATIFIES TPP:
ELSEWHERE--MALAYSIA'S PARLIAMENT JUST APPROVING RATIFYING THE 12 NATIONAL TRADE DEAL.

PORK MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK IN FIRST QUARTER:
SPEAKING OF EXPORTS, RABOBANK SAYS THE GLOBAL PORK MARKET WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE NEW YEAR...BUT SHOULD PICK UP BY Q-2. RABOBANK SAYS THE FIVE-NATION HOG PRICE INDEX REACHED ITS LOWEST POINT SINCE 2006. U.S. EXPANSION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THIS YEAR AFTER NEAR-RECORD SUPPLY GROWTH IN 2015. CHINESE IMPORTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN 2015, THANKS TO STRONG DOMESTIC PRICES AND A SHRINKING HERD THERE.
HISTORIC BARN BURNED DOWN:
FIREFIGHTERS ARE STILL TRYING TO DETERMINE WHAT CAUSED A MASSIVE FIRE THAT DESTROYED A 70-YEAR-OLD CATTLE AUCTION BARN IN LEXINGTON KENTUCKY. FIRE TORE THROUGH THE AUCTION FACILITY SATURDAY NO ONE WAS INJURED AT "BLUE GRASS LIVESTOCK", BUT OUR AFFILIATE IN LEXINGTON SAYS 20 HEAD OF CATTLE DIED IN THE FIRE.
CROP COMMENTS:
NOW LET'S CHECK IN WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN FOR THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. MIKE. GOOD MORNING CLINTON.
LET'S START OFF IN WESTERN IOWA. MATT RAASCH SAYS A LOT OF MELTING OCCURED OVER THE WEEKEND. THAT HAPPENED JUST IN TIME FOR THE TEMPERATURE DIP AND BIG SNOW STORM THIS WEEK.
WEATHER TEASE:
AND HERE'S A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP YOU CAN SEE THE BIG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES I'LL HAVE MY FORECAST COMING UP AND NOW TIME FOR SOME HOMETOWN TEMPERATURES AND NOW FOR SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS.
TEASE:
UP NEXT TYNE MORGAN JOINS US TO DISCUSS THOSE BARE FIELDS AND THE ACREAGE BATTLE ALREADY HEATING FOR THE 2016 PLANTING SEASON.
AND LATER, THE PERFECT HAT. FINDING JUST THE RIGHT FIT AT THIS YEAR'S CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION IN SAN DIEGO.
FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS--IT WAS MIXED DAY OF TRADING ON THE FUTURE'S BOARD. LET’S SEE WHERE THINGS CLOSED FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. CATTLE MARKETS WERE TRADING LOWER MOST OF THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE CATTLE INVENTORY REPORT THAT SHOWED LARGER INVENTORIES AS EXPECTED. THAT'S JUST ABOUT EVERY WEIGHT CLASS. BUT WE WILL FIND A WAY TO WAY TO CLOSE HIGHER AT THE END OF THE DAY. THE CASH MARKET WAS VERY STRONG AT THE END OF THE WEEK LAST WEEK. AND THEN PRODUCE SOME WEIGHT BUYING ACTION HERE IN CHICAGO. OVERALL THE MARKET WILL BE LONGER TERM BEARISH BUT IT'S ALREADY GOING DOWN QUITE A BIT AND PROBABLY DESERVES TO SEE MORE OF A CORRECTION.
ANALYSIS:
IN ANALYSIS THIS MORNING, TYNE MORGAN JOINS US TO DISCUSS THE LOOMING ACREAGE BATTLE AND THE ROLL GLOBAL SUPPLIES MAY PLAY IN THE DECISION. TYNE. WE'RE HERE NOW WITH BILL BIEDERMAN BILL I KNOW ALLENDALE COMES OUT WITH THEIR ACREAGE PROJECTIONS EACH YEAR. HOW DO YOU SEE THE ACREAGE PICTURE LOOKING IN 2016. WELL I WAS EXPECTING LIKE EVERYBODY LOWER ACRES BECAUSE OF LOW PRICE. BUT THAT'S NOT THE CASE WE HAVE THE CRP ACREAGE COMING WE'VE GOT THE PREVENT PLANT AND THEN WE'VE GOT THE LACK WHEAT ACRES PLANTED SO WE'VE GOT ABOUT 5 MILLION ACRES THAT'S GOING TO GO TO SOMETHING.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, I WAS OUT IN SAN DIEGO LAST WEEK FOR NCBA. THE WEATHER WAS BEAUTIFUL BUT AS SOON AS I LEFT, BOY, I GUESS THE STORM REALLY BLEW IN. YEAH, THAT STORM HIT. THEY HAD A SOME WARNINGS IN SAN DIEGO WHEN YOU LEFT. NOW THERE ARE BLIZZARD WARNINGS. OBVIOUSLY HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS AND ALL OF THE MIX ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. AND WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS STORM FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. HERE IT IS. IT'S CAUSING HEAVY SNOW THAT'S STILL LINGERING IN EASTERN COLORADO. MOST OF THAT IS ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF IOWA AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR TWIN FALLS, IDAHO, MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE HIGH IS 28 DEGREES. DES MOINES, IOWA IS WINDY AND SNOWY HEAVY AT TIMES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 36 AND FALLING. FLORIN, SOUTH CAROLINA IS VARIABLY CLOUDY. THE AFTERNOON HIGH IS AROUND 70 DEGREES.
TEASE:
NEXT, RUSSIA DEALING WITH A HUGE JUMP IN FOOD PRICES. WHO'S BENEFITTING FROM THE INCREASE?
AND IT WASN'T JUST 'LIVESTOCK' TALK AT THE CATTLE CONVENTION LAST WEEK. FOR SOME FOLKS IT WAS TIME TO GET A NEW HAT. "BRIMMING BUSINESS" -LATER ON AGDAY.
CALL TO REPEAL CUBA EMBARGO:
A COALITION OF AGRICULTURE GROUPS IS CALLING ON CONGRESS TO REPEAL THE CUBA EMBARGO TO ALLOW AGRICULTURE EXPORTS. A NEW ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT ALLOWS MORE EXPORTS TO CUBA, BUT FAILED TO INCLUDE AG PRODUCTS. THAT'S BECAUSE THEY FALL UNDER RESTRICTIONS PUT IN PLACE BY CONGRESS.
FOOD PRICES RISE IN RUSSIA:
THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND SAYS FOOD PRICES IN RUSSIA ROSE 14PERCENT LAST YEAR. A COUPLE OF FACTORS ARE TO BLAME. ONE -THE U-S AND OTHER WESTERN NATION'S PLACED ECONOMIC SANCTIONS ON THE COUNTRY FOR ITS ROLE IN THE UKRAINE CRISIS IN 2014.
IN RESPONSE, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN PLACED A BAN ON U-S AND EUROPEAN UNION FOOD PRODUCTS. TWO, DROPPING OIL PRICES HAVE LOWERED THE VALUE OF RUSSIA'S CURRENCY.
MAKING IMPORTED FOOD FROM APPROVED COUNTRIES EVEN MORE EXPENSIVE. WHILE THIS MAKES IT TOUGHER FOR CONSUMERS, FARMERS ARE ACTUALLY REAPING SOME BENEFITS. THIS DAIRY FARMER SAYS THANKS TO THE SANCTIONS, THEY HAVE GROWN THEIR HERD SIZE AND THEIR BUSINESS.
SHE SAYS THEY'RE GETTING MORE INTEREST FROM SMALL FOOD SHOPS AND CHAIN STORES.
TEASE:
THE NATION'S CATTLE PRODUCERS GATHERED LAST WEEK IN SAN DIEGO. SOME OF THEM TOOK HOME A NEW HAT! WE'LL VISIT A POPULAR TRADE BOOTH FOR PRODUCERS, WHEN WE COME BACK.
CLINTON, IN THE COUNTRY:
I WAS AT THE CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION LAST WEEK IN SAN DIEGO. I HAD A GREAT TIME CATCHING UP WITH OLD FRIENDS AND MAKING NEW AQUAINTANCES. ONE THING IS ABUNDANTLY CLEAR AT THIS CONVENTION -CATTLEMEN -AND WOMEN -LOVE THEIR HATS.
PHOTOJOURNALIST RUSS HNATUSKO SAYS THOSE FOLKS ARE "BRIMMING WITH PRIDE" WHEN IT COMES TO THEIR HATS AND HERITAGE.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, BETSY JIBBEN AND TYNE MORGAN. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. WEDNESDAY ON AGDAY WE'LL HAVE A STATUS REPORT ON THE SHAPE OF THE NATION'S WINTER WHEAT CROP. PLUS, WE'LL SEE WHERE WHEAT MARKETS ARE HEADED.  FOR NEWS THAT'S DRIVING THE AG MARKETS, TUNE IN DAILY FOR AGDAY.

 

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