AgDay Daily Recap -Feb. 25, 2016

February 25, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
FEB. 25, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -
A NEW STUDY PUTS A NUMBER ON THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP.
PLUS A SOUTH AMERICAN HARVEST UPDATE.
IN AGRIBUSINESS. THE  CHALLENGES OF LARGE STOCKS IN CHINA.
"IT IS NOT GREAT FOR THE ECONOMICS OF CORN AND THE U.S. WHEN WE ARE NOT THE LOW COST PRODUCER RIGHT NOW." 
AND WE'LL MEET A TREE FARMER FROM ARKANSAS PASSIONATE ABOUT HIS WORK AND CREATING A BUSINESS THAT LASTS.
OBAMA CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ON CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL OF TPP:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS.
EVEN IN A YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS, PRESIDENT OBAMA SAYS HE IS OPTIMISTIC THE TRANSPACIFIC PARTNERSHIP CAN BE APPROVED IN 2016.
THE 12 NATION TRADE DEAL ENCOMPASSES MORE THAN 40 PERCENT OF THE GLOBE'S GDP.
THE PRESIDENT CONTINUES SAY HE'S "QUOTE" "CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC" CONGRESS WILL SUPPORT THE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP.
SPEAKING TO A DELEGATION OF STATE GOVERNORS AT THE WHITE HOUSE EARLIER THIS WEEK, OBAMA SAID HE WOULD HAVE TO RELY ON VOTES FROM PRO-TRADE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS SINCE LABOR LEADERS OPPOSED THE DEAL.
TPP COULD BOOST FARM INCOME:
THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU JUST RELEASING A NEW STUDY AND STRONG SUPPORT FOR TPP.
AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE TPP--ESTIMATES THE TRADE PACT WILL BOOST ANNUAL NET FARM INCOME IN THE U-S BY $4.4 BILLION DOLLARS. THE REPORT FORECASTING FARM-PRICE INCREASES FOR MANY COMMODITIES. BREAKING IT DOWN, CORN WOULD SEE A GAIN OF FIVE CENTS PER BUSHEL, A 12 CENT PER BUSHEL INCREASE FOR SOYBEANS, TWO-CENTS PER BUSHEL INCREASE FOR WHEAT AND 16 CENTS PER HUNDREDWEIGHT INCREASE FOR RICE.
TPP COULD AID BEEF, DAIRY AND CORN MARKETS:
AFBF ALSO PREDICTING PRICE INCREASES IN LIVESTOCK. TPP EXPECTED TO ADD $2.66 PER HUNDREDWEIGHT TO BEEF PRICES. A $2.45 INCREASE FOR PORK AND A $1.45 INCREASE FOR POULTRY.
MILK ALSO EXPECTED TO RISE 21 CENTS PER HUNDREDWEIGHT. OTHER FARM GROUPS INCLUDING THE NATIONAL CORN GROWERS ASSOCIATION SAY PASSING THE T-P-P IS A MAJOR FOCUS FOR 2016.
TPP APPROVED AND SIGNED, WAITING ON CONGRESS APPROVAL:
THE 12 NATIONS INVOLVED IN THE TRADE DEAL HAVE APPROVED AND SIGNED THE AGREEMENT.
THE U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION IS PREPARING A FORMAL ANALYSIS FOR THE ADMINISTRATION, WHICH WILL FORMALLY ASK CONGRESS TO RATIFY THE DEAL.
HOWEVER, SO FAR, CONGRESS SEEMS LIKELY TO DELAY A VOTE ON THE TRADE DEAL UNTIL AFTER THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS IN THE LAME DUCK SESSION, OR ONCE A NEW PRESIDENT TAKES OFFICE NEXT YEAR.
COTTON DESIGNATION EXPLANATION:
ONE COMMODITY A-F-B-F SAYS WOULDN'T SEE A PRICE IMPACT FROM THE TPP IS COTTON.
LOW PRICES PART OF THE REASON BEHIND RECENT REQUESTS TO DESIGNATION COTTON AS AN OILSEED. IN HIS EXCLUSIVE RESPONSE TO OUR PARTNERS AT AGWEB, SECRETARY TOM VILSACK, EXPLAINING SUCH A DESIGNATION IS NOT AUTHORIZED UNDER THE 2014 FARM BILL.
VILSACK SAYS QUOTE, "THE FARM BILL EXPRESSLY REMOVED ELIGIBILITY OF COTTON FOR SUCH PAYMENTS, AS COTTON IS NO LONGER LISTED AS A COVERED COMMODITY," ADDING THAT "THE FARM BILL INTENDED TO EXCLUDE COTTON FROM ARC AND PLC PAYMENTS AND USDA WAS PROVIDED WITH CLEAR DIRECTION THAT IT WOULD NOT BE INCLUDED NOR COVERED."
CTAP COTTON COVERAGE:
THE 2014 FARM BILL INSTEAD CREATED AN ALTERNATIVE--THE STACKED INCOME PROTECTION PLAN AND THE COTTON TRANSITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM, OR CTAP. VILSACK SAYS USDA WILL CONTINUE TO DO WHAT IT CAN TO HELP AMERICA'S COTTON GROWERS.
WOTUS TO BE HEARD IN 6TH CIRCUIT:
A FEDERAL APPEALS COURT THIS WEEK RULING IT WILL HEAR CHALLENGES TO THE WATERS OF THE U.S. RULE. THE 6TH CIRCUIT COURT OF APPEALS IN CINCINNATI AGREEING TO HEAR CHALLENGES TO THE EPA'S RULE FROM 18 STATES.
THE RULE WENT INTO EFFECT LAST AUGUST BUT IS TEMPORARILY ON HOLD PENDING RESOLUTION OF THE JURISDICTIONAL CHALLENGE.
SOYBEAN HARVEST IN BRAZIL:
SOYBEAN HARVEST IS MOVING ALONG IN BRAZIL. PRO FARMER REPORTING AS OF MONDAY, BRAZILIAN HARVEST IS ABOUT 25 PERCENT COMPLETE.
NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN HAS AN UPDATE.
CLINTON, USDA METEOROLOGISTS TELL US, RIGHT NOW, CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD THROUGHOUT MOST OF BRAZIL. EVEN THOUGH SOME AREAS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAD PROBLEMS WITH WET CONDITIONS MONTHS AGO.
BRAZIL COULD PRODUCE RECORD CROP:
BRAZIL COULD BE ON PACE FOR A RECORD CROP DESPITE SOME WEATHER PROBLEMS.  NOW, PROFARMER SAYS IN MANY AREAS OF BRAZIL, SOYBEAN YIELDS CONTINUE TO CREEP HIGHER AS HARVEST MOVES INTO MEDIUM-MATURING VARIETIIES.
IN MATO GROSSO -WHICH IS THE PRIMARY SOYBEAN GROWING REGION OF BRAZIL -HARVEST REACHED NEARLY 40-PERCENT. THE MATO GROSSO INSTITUTE OF AG ECONOMICS TRIMMED ITS SOYBEAN PRODUCTION ESTATIMATES FOR THE STATE. 
CROP COMMENTS:
SOME AREAS ARE GETTING DUMPED WITH SNOW. BUT FOR OTHERS, SPRING HAS SPRUNG EARLY. DAVID HARKER IS FILLING IN FOR MIKE HOFFMAN. HE HAS DETAILS IN THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. DAVID.
GOOD MORNING, CLINTON.
LET'S START OFF IN NORTHEAST MICHIGAN.  MATT SCHWAB SENT US THIS PHOTO OF SOME FUTURE FARMERS WITH THE FIRST CALF OF THE YEAR.
THIS WAS TAKEN BEFORE THE BIG STORM.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL LOOK AT THE CURRENT STOCKS SITUATION IN CHINA AND WHAT IT COULD MEAN FOR GLOBAL MARKETS.
AND LATER, WE'LL MEET AN ARKANSAS TREE FARMER WHO'S PASSIONATE ABOUT CREATING A BUSINESS THAT LASTS.
AGRIBUSINESS:
DUSTIN JOHNSON, AGYIELD OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK THIS MORNING. DUSTIN, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE SITUATION IN CHINA. WE KNOW THAT THEY ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME OUT OF CONDITION GRAIN OUT TO THE MARKET, BUT THERE ARE ALSO SOME OTHER MOVES WHAT'S GOING ON OVER THERE AND HOW COULD THAT IMPACT US GLOBALLY. > SURE, WELL THERE ARE TWO THINGS. ONE IS THAT THEY HAVE GOT A MAJOR PORTION OF THE WORLD'S CARRY OUT THAT THEY ARE STUCK WITH AND HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO SELL SO THEY DON'T WANT TO SELL AT A LOSS OF COURSE, NOBODY DOES, BUT TWO IT IS ALSO THE PHILOSOPHY OF HOW THEY ARE GOING TO SUPPORT THE MARKET GOING FORWARD. ARE THEY GOING TO START TO LOWER THAT SUPPORT PRICE SO THAT THEY DON'T HAVE THIS PROBLEM IN THE FUTURE AND FIND OTHER WAYS TO BOOST THEIR AG COMMUNITY SO YOU KNOW THE MARKET BELIEVES THAT THEY ARE COMMITTED TO THIS.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
DAVID HARKER IN FOR METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN TODAY. DAVID, LOOKING AT THE JET STREAM LOOKS LIKE WE CAN REALLY SEE WHERE THAT COLD AIR IS.> ABSOLUTELY, IT'S DIGGING DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THAT WAY AS WE LOOK INTO THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. YEAH ALL THAT COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THAT IS GOING TO PLAY A LARGE FACTOR IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE FOLKS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE THAT DRIER AIR ROLL BACK IN.
COMMODITY CLASSICS PITCH:
IF YOU'RE HEADING TO COMMODITY CLASSIC THIS YEAR, WHY DON'T YOU JOIN US FOR SEVERAL EVENTS WE'RE HOSTING WITH THE FARM JOURNAL FAMILY. THURSDAY, I'LL BE AT THE DEKALB BOOTH FROM ONE TO TWO P.M. TALKING WITH KEN FERRIE ABOUT GROWING YIELDS IN AN ERA OF LOW PRICES. ON FRIDAY, OUR PARTNERS AT AGRITALK WILL START AROUND 6-A.M. WITH A TAPING OF THEIR FRIDAY FREE FOR ALL.
U.S. FARM REPORT AND IT'S MARKETING ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION KICKS OFF RIGHT AFTER AT 7 A.M. I'LL BE THERE ALONG WITH JOHN PHIPPS, TYNE MORGAN, CHIP FLOREY AND MIKE ADAMS.
THEN LATER THAT DAY, TYNE AND MACHINERY PETE-GREG PETERSON WILL BE BACK AT THE DEKALB BOOTH FOR A DISCUSSION ON THE FARM MACHINERY MARKET.
IT'S A BUSY WEEK--MAKE PLANS TO JOIN US.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME IT'S OUR DROVERS TV REPORT INCLUDING A LOOK AT THE LATEST PROFIT TRACKER FOR THE CATTLE INDUSTRY.
AND MEET AN ARKANSAS TREE FARMER WHO'S WORK TODAY IS BUILDING OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FUTURE.
PROFIT TRACKER:
A NEW STERLING PROFIT TRACKER ROLLING OUT THIS WEEK. A STRONG RALLY IN CASH PRICES HELPING IMPROVE THE FEEDYARD CLOSEOUT PICTURE.
LOSSES NOW 2-HUNDRED 24 DOLLARS PER HEAD...A 100 DOLLAR IMPROVEMENT IN JUST A WEEK'S TIME. THE 5 CASH PRICE CLIMBING TO NEAR 134 PER HUNDRED.
STERLING MARKETING ALSO PROJECTING PROFIT MARGINS FOR COW CALF PRODUCERS AT ROUGHLY 2HUNDRED 40 DOLLARS PER COW.  ABOUT HALF WHAT IT WAS THE PREVIOUS TWO YEARS.
CATTLE ON WHEAT:
AS WARM WEATHER INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CATTLE ON WHEAT ARE STARTING TO MOVE. SOME FIELDS ALREADY REPORTING FIRST HOLLOW STEM MEANING IF PRODUCERS HOPE TO HARVEST WHEAT, THOSE STOCKERS NEED TO MOVE.
OTHERWISE, ITS A DECISION ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT TO GRAZE WHEAT PASTURE OUT AS GROWTH INTENSIFIES..AND CARRYING CAPACITY INCREASES.
DATA RESTRICTIONS ON FARMS AND RANCHES IN MISSOURI:
THE MISSOURI HOUSE PASSING NEW LEGISLATION RESTRICTING PUBLIC ACCESS TO SOME GOVERNMENT DATA ON FARMS AND RANCHES.
INCLUDED IN THE OPEN RECORDS EXEMPTION, IS STATE DATA ON ANIMAL HEALTH, AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF FARMS. SUPPORTERS SAY THEY HOPE LIMITING DATA ACCESS WILL ENCOURAGE MORE FARMERS TO PARTICIPATE IN THINGS LIKE DISEASE TRACKING PROGRAMS.
WHILE OTHERS ARGUE, THE PUBLIC RELIES ON OPEN RECORDS LAWS TO HOLD POWERFUL ENTITIES ACCOUNTABLE AND LIMITING ACCESS TO DATA PROTECTS IRRESPONSIBLE FARMERS WHILE CASTING SUSPICION ON RESPECTABLE ONES.
TEASE:
AND WHEN AGDAY CONTINUES, WE HEAD IN THE COUNTRY TO ARKANSAS WHERE "ONE MAN AND A TRUCK" ARE SAVING TREES FOR THE NEXT GENERATION.
IN THE COUNTRY:
TRACEY BEEMISS GROWS AND SELLS ORNAMENTAL TREES AT HIS FARM SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK, ARKANSAS. TRANSPLANTING AND SAVING TREES IS AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE BUSINESS HE CALLS A "LABOR OF LOVE."
AND HE PLANS TO PASS THIS BUSINESS TO THE NEXT GENERATION.
KEN MOORE HAS DETAILS IN THIS REPORT PROVIDED BY THE ARKANSAS FARM BUREAU.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR DAVID HARKER AND BETSY JIBBEN. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. FRIDAY ON AGDAY -OUR PARTNERS AT PROFARMER JOIN US WITH THEIR WEEKLY PROFIT BRIEFING. AND WHAT DOES A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERNS IN BRAZIL MEAN FOR U-S FARMERS? WATCH US WEEKDAYS HERE ON AGDAY.

 

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