AgDay Daily Recap -Feb. 29, 2016

February 29, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
FEB. 29, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -COLD STORAGE NUMBERS SET RECORDS IN JANUARY. PLUS, EVALUATING THE FARM ECONOMY.
IN AGRIBUSINESS...FOLLOWING THE LATEST AG OUTLOOK NUMBERS...NOW  WHAT? THE BIGGER ISSUE I THINK THIS YEAR IS BEGINNING SUPPLIES AND BEGINNING SUPPLIES ARE LARGER THAN NORMAL. MACHINERY PETE SAYS BIG TRACTORS CAN STILL DRAW A CROWD. AND "A STABLE, A HORSE AND A PAINTBRUSH. I'LL TELL YOU HOW IT ALL FITS TOGETHER AHEAD ON AGDAY."
USDA FORECASTS 2016 AS RECORD YEAR OF PORK PRODUCTION:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS.
USDA EXPECTING A RECORD YEAR FOR PROTEIN PRODUCTION IN 2016. THAT FORECAST --OFF TO A RECORD START -ACCORDING TO THE LATEST STORAGE NUMBERS. USDA EXPECTING RECORD PORK PRODUCTION THIS YEAR. AND THAT'S ON-TOP OF THE AMOUNT OF PORK ALREADY IN COLD STORAGE.
THE AG DEPARTMENT SAYS IN JANUARY WAREHOUSES STACKING THE MOST PORK EVER INTO THE COOLER.
RECORD HIGH SINCE 1915:
STOCKS HITTING 637 MILLION POUNDS--AN ALL TIME HIGH FOR THE MONTH...DATING BACK TO 1915. JANUARY HAMS ALSO SETTING A RECORD--WHICH SHOULD MAKE THAT EASTER HAM VERY AFFORDABLE.
"SO YOU GET THIS BIG SUPPLY. WELL THE CONSUMER WILL BENEFIT. EXPORTS WILL IMPROVE. THEY'RE FIGHTING THE DOLLAR A BIT THIS YEAR. BUT THE CONSUMER WILL BENEFIT. WHO'S GOING TO HURT AGAIN THIS YEAR? THE PRODUCER BECAUSE NOW WE NEED PROBABLY LOW PRICES TO CURE LOW PRICES. YET, THERE'S REALLY GOOD OPPORTUNITIES IN THE CATTLE MKT RIGHT NOW FOR PRODUCERS TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE SHIFTING RISK.  AND THAT'S WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOCUSING THEIR ATTENTION RIGHT NOW."
2.3 BILLION POUNDS OF PROTEIN IN COLD STORAGE:
USDA SAYS THE COMBINED AMOUNT OF BEEF, PORK, CHICKEN AND TURKEY IN COLD STORAGE AT THE END OF JANUARY WAS ESTIMATED AT 2-POINT-THREE BILLION POUNDS -EIGHT PERCENT LARGER THAN THE PREVIOUS YEAR AND 11PER CENT HIGHER THAN THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE.
PORK EXPORTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGHER THIS YEAR. DATA FROM USDA'S AG OUTLOOK FORUM SHOWS PORK EXPORTS ARE FORECAST AT ABOUT 5-POINT-ONE BILLION POUNDS, UP 4 PERCENT FROM 2015.
HOPE FOR EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES IN 2016, USDA EXPECTS :
USDA ECONOMISTS POINT-OUT RUSSIA REMAINED CLOSED TO U-S EXPORTS AND EXPORTS TO JAPAN AND A NUMBER OF OTHER COUNTRIES WERE HINDERED BY THE STRONG DOLLAR AND ECONOMIC WEAKNESS. THE AG DEPARTMENT EXPECTS FOREIGN ECONOMIES TO IMPROVE WHICH WILL INCREASE MEAT DEMAND. USDA ANALYSTS ONCE AGAIN LOWERING THEIR EXPECTATIONS FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS THIS FISCAL YEAR. USDA NOW PREDICTS A TOTAL $125 BILLION, DOWN MORE THAN 10 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. USDA ECONOMIST ROB JOHANSSON SAYS ONE-THIRD OF THE DECLINE IS BECAUSE OF REDUCED SALES TO CHINA.
2016 EXPECTED TO BRING ARRAY OF CHALLENGES FOR AG INDUSTRY:
THE USDA AG OUTLOOK FORUM PROVIDES MOUNTAINS OF DATA AND FORECASTS. FOR SOME, ALL THAT INFORMATION CAN MUDDY YOUR PERSPECTIVE OF THE YEAR AHEAD. BUT ONE THING IS CLEAR -2016 MAY PROVE TO BE A BIT MORE HARSH THAN IN RECENT YEARS. JASON VANCE WITH UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI EXTENSION HAS MORE. IN THE LAST FEW YEARS FARMERS HAVE SEEN RECORD PRICES AND HIGH PROFITABILITY. HOWEVER UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST SCOTT BROWN SAYS THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE IN 2016.
SCOTT BROWN, MU EXTENSION AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIST SAYS WE¹RE GOING TO HAVE LOWER LIVESTOCK PRICES ACROSS THE BOARD; I DON¹T CARE WHETHER YOU ARE A CATTLE, HOG OR DAIRY PRODUCER PRICES YOU RECEIVE IN 2016 ARE GOING TO BE LOWER THAN WHAT YOU SAW IN 2015.
FARM INCOME EXPECTED TO DROP:
GRAIN PRICES HAVE DROPPED IN THE LAST COUPLE YEARS. THIS YEAR WE COULD SEE EVEN LOWER CORN, SOYBEAN AND WHEAT PRICES. BROWN SAYS THIS YEAR¹S CROP COULD IMPACT PRICES FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A LOT OF THAT IS GOING TO HINGE ON WHAT KIND OF WEATHER WE HAVE 2016 UNFOLDS. BUT ANOTHER GOOD CROP IN THE BIN PROBABLY ASSURES US MORE PRESSURE ON CORN AND SOYBEAN PRICES AS WE LOOK AHEAD. IN 2013 U.S. NET FARM INCOME SET A NEW RECORD THAT BROWN SAYS WAS THE RESULT OF WEATHER, STRONG DOMESTIC AND EXPORT DEMAND. ALL THOSE THINGS DROVE US TO A VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FARM INCOME AND NOW WE ARE HAVING TO LOOK AT A MUCH LOWER LEVEL. THIS YEAR USDA IS PROJECTING FARM NET INCOME TO FALL BELOW 55 BILLION DOLLARS, DOWN FROM OVER 120 BILLION IN 2013. BROWN SAYS THAT WILL AFFECT OTHERS BESIDES FARMERS. MACHINERY, FERTILIZER, SEED AND CHEMICAL SUPPLIERS ARE ALL TRYING TO ADJUST TO THIS TIGHTER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY. FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI, I¹M JASON VANCE.
USDA TO INSPECT CATFISH:
STARTING THIS WEEK THE FDA WILL NO LONGER INSPECT CATFISH. INSTEAD USDA FSIS WILL HAVE THE JOB. ON MARCH FIRST, FSIS WILL START ITS 18 MONTH TRANSITIONAL PERIOD. THE SERVICE WILL MONITOR BOTH DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN CATFISH. THE CHANGE WAS PUT IN PLACE AS PART OF THE 2008 FARM BILL AND IT'S BEEN A HOTELY CONTESTED ISSUE FOR LAWMAKERS EVER SINCE. ONE ALABAMA CATFISH PRODUCER SAYS HE WELCOMES THE CHANGE.
CROP COMMENTS:
TODAY'S CROP COMMENTS TAKE US TO THE LONE STAR STATE. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS AN UPDATE.MIKE. GOOD MORNING, CLINTON. LET'S START OFF IN BURLESON COUNTY, TEXAS.
DANIEL WAGNER HAS BEEN FIELD CULTIVATING IN VERY DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HE SAYS THE AREA HAS SINCE RECEIVED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN. AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE DROUGH MONITOR YOU CAN SEE IT'S ACTUALLY IMPROVED A LITTLE BIT IN THE LAST WEEK IN TEXAS WE'LL TALK MORE ABOUT THAT COMING UP IT'S STILL VERY DRY OUT WEST WE'LL HAVE YOUR FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEK IN JUST A FEW MINUTES.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT USDA'S RECENT 2016 OUTLOOK NUMBERS AND HOW THEY COULD HOLD UP THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. AND LATER IT'S MACHINERY PETE.
 GOOD CONDITION ON USED EQUIPMENT ON FARM AUCTIONS CONTINUES TO SELL WELL. STICK AROUND, FOLKS I GOT THREE EXAMPLES FROM LAST WEEK TO TELL YOU ABOUT. AND WE'LL MEET HORSE SPENDING HIS DAYS IN RETIREMENT WITH A LITTLE MORE ARTISTIC INTERPRETATION OF TIME OFF.
CME:
LETS START THE WEEK WITH A LOOK AT HOW MARKETS CLOSED FRIDAY. FOR THAT WE HEAD TO THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. FRIDAY IN THE GRAINS MARKET HAS ALL GRAINS JUST A LITTLE BIT OFF. THERE IS SOME PRESSURE GOING ON RIGHT NOW. I THINK THAT WHAT'S HAPPENING, THERE'S A LOT OF SELLING COMING IN FROM SOUTH AMERICA FROM ESPECIALLY FROM BRAZIL. THE BEANS AND MEAL FROM ARGENTINA AND THAT'S PUSHING THE BEANS DOWN. THAT'S ALL FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME GROUP. I'M VIRGINIA MCGAFFEY.
AGRIBUSINESS DESK:
JOINING ME NOW AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK, IS BRIAN ROACH. BRIAN, LET'S TALK ABOUT THESE AG OUTLOOK NUMBERS THAT CAME OUT OVER LAST WEEK. THEY SET SOME INTERESTING PRICES A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN WHAT WE'RE SEEING RIGHT NOW. WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON THOSE NUMBERS? AGAIN, YOU HAVE TO START SOMEWHERE EVERY YEAR. THIS YEAR THEY'RE STARTING WITH WHAT THE MATH TELLS THEM TO PLUG IN FOR PRICES BASED ON SUPPLIES AND THE BIGGER ISSUE THIS YEAR I THINK IS BEGINNING SUPPLIES. THOSE SUPPLIES ARE LARGER THAN NORMAL. WE DON'T START OFF WITH A TIGHT PIPELINE LIKE WE'VE HAD A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO AND BACK. I THINK THAT AS YOU LOOK AT A ROLE FORWARD BASED ON TREND LINE YIELDS, WE SEE CORN ACRES COMING UP AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR CORN PROFITS WITH FERTILIZER PROFITS DOWN VERSUS BEANS, I THINK THAT YOU'RE SEEING THE SURPRISE IN HERE.

NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO WEATHER HERE WITH MIKE HOFFMAN ON AGDAY THIS MORNING, MIKE LOOKING AT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK. AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. IT RALLY HAS BEEN. THAT'S WHERE THE STORM SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING. AND WE HAD THAT ONE REALLY BIG STORM WITH A LOT OF SEVERE WX AND SNOW. AND AS YOU CAN SEE AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS, A WEEK AGO SATURDAY THROUGH LAST FRIDAY THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. ACTUALLY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS, WHICH IS GOOD NEWS.  SOME AREAS STARTING TO GET DRY FROM SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO ALL THE WAY UP TO JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI. A PRETTY GOOD BAND FROM NEW ORLEANS OVER TO ATLANTA. SEEMS LIKE THEY WERE TWO OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OBVIOUSLY WE HAD THOSE TORNADOES. AWFUL SITUATION IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
DROUGHT MONTOR:
DROUGHT MONITOR LET'S TAKE A LAST 4 WEEKS. YOU CAN SEE HOW TEXAS HAD NO PROBLEMS AT ALL. WE'LL WATCH THINGS OUT WEST. AND YOU CAN SEE THREE WEEKS AGO IT IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OUT WEST. TWO WEEKS AGO JUST A BIT MORE. BUT TEXAS IS STARTING TO GET DRY LAST WEEK. WE STARTED TO SEE MODERATE DROUGHT BUT LUCKILY THAT STORM CAME. YOU CAN SEE THE DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWING IMPROVEMENT BUT STILL SOME AREAS WE HAVE TO WATCH ACROSS TEXAS. JET STREAM AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK, THE TROUGH DIGS BACK IN. THAT MEANS MORE COLD AIR FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER OF THE WEEK FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
90 DAY OUTLOOK:
90 DAY OUTLOOK SPLIT UP INTO MONTHS -MARCH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. BUT AS WE GO THRU TIME THOUGH WE'LL SEE THE BELOW NORMAL AREA SHRINKING BACK INTO THE 4 CORNER REGION BY APRIL. ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES BY APRIL. AND YOU CAN SEE IT EXPANDS EVEN MORE HEADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO MAY. AND THE BELOW NORMAL AREA IS REALLY ONLY IN WESTERN TEX AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEX. PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 90 DAYS WE'RE STILL GOING TO START OFF WITH THAT EL NINO LOOK, SOUTHERN TIER ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL FARTHER NORTH BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY BECOME A BIT DRIER IN THE SOUTHERN STATES AS WE HEAD THRU TIME.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY, NOW LET'S LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OFF PRESCOTT, ARIZONA PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT, HIGH TEMP OF 72. BEMIDJI, MINNESOTA CLOUDY WITH LIGHT NOW POSSIBLE HIGH OF ONLY 19. AND FINALLY ROCKY MOUNTAIN, NORTH CAROLINA, PARTLY SUNNY AND A HIGH OF 68.

TEASE:
MACHINERY PETE JOINS US NEXT WITH A LOOK AT RECENT PRICES FOR SOME GREEN USED EQUIPMENT ROLLING THROUGH AUCTION. AND LATER, HE'S BEING COMPARED TO POLLACK --BUT THIS PAINTER IS MAKING HIS MARK--HANDS FREE. RECEIVE A FREE TRIAL OF THE DAILY MARKET LETTER AND GAIN KNOWLEDGE ABOUT CURRENT MARKET CONDITIOSN FROM THE PROFESSIONALS AT BOWER TRAING. VIEW THE MARKETS LIKE NEVER BEFORE.
MACHINERY PETE:
MACHINERY PETE IS HERE WITH HIS WEEKLY LOOK AT THE BEST USED EQUIPMENT DEALS. THIS MORNING WE SEE HOW TRACTORS AND COMBINES IN GOOD CONDITION ARE STILL A BIG DRAW AT AUCTION. WELL, FOLKS I'M SEEING CONTINUED STRONG BIDDING ACTION ON REALLY GOOD CONDITION USED EQUIPMENT ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY HERE THROUGH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. NOW, HERE ARE THREE EXAMPLES FROM LAST THURSDAY. I COVERED A FARM RETIREMENT AUCTION IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THIS 2005 JOHN DEERE 7820 TRACTOR WITH 2978, A ONE OWNER TRACTOR WENT FOR $7300
IN THE COUNTRY:
AS WE GROW OLDER, WE START TO SLOW DOWN AND SOMETHINGS THAT MAY HAVE BEEN EASIER YEARS AGO, BECOME A LOT HARDER. JUST LIKE HUMANS, HORSES ARE LIKE THAT TOO. WE INTRODUCE YOU TO A 'RETIRED' APPALOOSA CLYDESDALE NAMED NICK, WHO IS STILL AN OLD WORKHORSE IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE. LIFE ISN'T TOO TOUGH AS A RETIRED HORSE. THOSE WORKING DAYS NOW DISTANT MEMORIES.. THEN , THERE'S NICK.. AN OVER ACHIEVING APPALOOSA CLYDESDALE. HORSES, LIKE HIM, WORKED HARD FOR A LIVING. THE 22-YEAR OLD APPALOOSA CLYDESDALE USED TO BE LIKE ONE OF *THESE CARRIAGE HORSES ON MACKINAC ISLAND. HE THEN SWITCHED JOBS BECOMMING A LESSON AND DRILL TEAM HORSE. COME ON, NICK." ARTHRITIS HAS SINCE SLOWED HIM DOWN. BUT, JUST LIKE MANY OF US, EVEN IN HIS ELDER YEARS, HE'S NOT DONE WORKING JUST YET. IN FRONT OF HIS BARN BUDDIES NICK NOW PASSES THE TIME BY PAINTING. THE DENADA EQUESTRIAN CENTER TAUGHT HIM WITH THE HELP OF A CLICKER…REPORTING IN WHEATON, ILLINOIS, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.
CLOSING:
NICK'S PAINTINGS ARE FOR SALE AT THE EQUESTRIAN CENTER. NOW , HE'S NOT THE ONLY ACCOMPLISHED HORSE TO HAVE LIVED IN THOSE STABLES. THEY WERE ONCE HOME TO LUCKY DEBONAIR, THE 1965 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER. THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR BETSY JIBBEN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. TUESDAY ON AGDAY WE'LL LOOK AT THE CURRENT CONDITION OF DAIRY MARKETS. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS YOUR FARM COUNTRY FORECAST AND SEE HOW CHICAGO IS BECOMING A BIG PRODUCER OF GREENS DURING THE DEAD OF WINTER. WATCH ME WEEKDAYS ON AGDAY.

 

 

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