AgDay Daily Recap- Feb. 4, 2016

February 4, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
FEB. 4, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY:
SYNGENTA SAYS YES TO A BID FROM CHINESE BASED CHEMCHINA.
PLUS, CALIFORNIA SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
IN AGRIBUSINESS...A LOOK AT LOCKING IN FUEL PRICES.
"I THINK THAT THE FUEL MARKET HAD TRADED ON EMOTION AND GONE BELOW EQUILIBRIUM."
AND MEET A FATHER DAUGHTER DUO FROM WISCONSIN WORKING TO BUILD THEIR DAIRY'S FUTURES BY HONORING THEIR PAST.
SYNGENTA AGREES TO CHEMCHINA TAKEOVER:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AFTER HOLDING OUT ON MULTIPLE BIDS, SYNGENTA SAYS 'YES' TO A BID TO SELL THE COMPANY.
SYNGENTA HAS AGREED TO A 43 BILLION DOLLAR CHEMCHINA TAKEOVER.
IT'S EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST FOREIGN TAKEOVER BY A CHINESE BUYER EVER.
THE TAKEOVER ALSO RAISING QUESTIONS ABOUT FUTURE OF GMO APPROVALS AND ON-GOING LAWSUITS AGAINST SYNGENTA AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A CHINESE OWNED COMPANY.
BETSY JIBBEN JOINS US WITH MORE.
BETSY.
LAWSUITS LIKELY TO NOT BE IMPACTED:
AGRICULTURAL LAW AND TAX SPECIALIST ROGER MCEOWEN AGREES THE DEAL PROBABLY WON'T IMPACT CURRENT LAWSUITS ... BUT ADDED IT'S LIKELY TO BE A WAITING GAME WHEN IT COMES TO THE FUTURE OF REGULATORY APPROVALS.
NATIONAL SECURITY COMES INTO QUESTION:
THE DEAL STILL HAS TO CLEAR REGULATORY HURDLES. I SPOKE TO IOWA SENATOR CHUCK GRASSLEY AND HE SAYS ITS SOMETHING HE PLANS TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT AS CHAIR OF THE SENATE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE.
THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS ABOUT NATIONAL SECURITY AND WHETHER THE COMPANY'S LOCATIONS WOULD BE TOO CLOSE TO U.S. MILITARY BASES.

IF YOU REMEMBER LAST YEAR, SYNGENTA FILED A THIRD PARTY COMPLAINT SAYING THE NEGLIGENCE WITH THE TRAIT WASN'T JUST THE COMPANY'S FAULT BUT TRANSPORTERS, ELEVATORS AND EXPORTERS.
FEDERAL COURT DETERMINED FARMERS, GRAIN HANDLERS AND OTHERS WHO SUED SYNGENTA CAN CONTINUE THEIR LITIGATION AGAINST THE COMPANY WHEN IT DENIED SYNGENTA'S MOTION TO DISMISS THE CASE. >
ETHANOL SURVIVAL:
NOW TO AG-VOTE 2016...
TED CRUZ'S VICTORY IN THE IOWA CAUCUS IS FUELING MORE DEBATE ON WHETHER TO DO AWAY WITH SUBSIDIES FOR ETHANOL.
CRUZ SAYS HE DOESN'T SUPPORT FUEL SUBSIDIES, SAYING THE MARKET SHOULD DECIDE WHETHER ETHANOL SURVIVES.
HIS VICTORY COMES JUST AS THE SENATE LOOKS TO ADDRESS AN AMENDMENT THAT WOULD GUT THE RENEWABLE FUELS STANDARD.
RENEWABLE FUEL STANDARD IS LAW:
SENIOR IOWA SENATOR CHUCK GRASSLEY SAYS WHEN IT COMES TO THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN, IOWA IS JUST ONE STATE, SO PEOPLE SHOULD NOT DRAW CONCLUSIONS ABOUT ETHANOL.
I THINK YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER, THE RENEWABLE FUEL STANDARD IS PERMANENT LAW. IT'S NOT LIKE A LOT OF THE TAX CREDITS WHERE IT HAS TO BE RENEWED EVERY ONE OR TWO YEARS. THIS IS PERMANENT LAW. A PRESIDENT CRUZ CANNOT REPEAL PERMANENT LAW. ONLY THE CONGRESS CAN DO THAT. THAT'S A BATTLE I'M WILLING TO HAVE."
OIL PRICES LOWEST SINCE 2009:
THE NATIONAL AVERAGE FOR GASOLINE HAS BEEN UNDER TWO DOLLARS FOR 33 STRAIGHT DAYS.
TRIPLE-A SAYS THE NATIONAL AVERAGE PRICE YESTERDAY WAS A DOLLAR-78 A GALLON. THAT'S THE LOWEST SINCE JANUARY 2009.
TRIPLE-A SAYS THE COMBINATION OF SEASONAL  REDUCTIONS IN GASOLINE DEMAND AND THE LOWER PRICE FOR CRUDE OIL ARE LIKELY TO HELP KEEP PRICES LOW IN THE NEAR TERM.
LOW OIL PRICES HURT RECYCLING PLANTS:
MEANWHILE, THOSE FALLING CRUDE OIL PRICES ARE IMPACTING THE PLASTIC RECYCLING BUSINESS.
IT'S BECOMING CHEAPER FOR MANUFACTURERS TO BUY FRESHLY MADE PLASTIC RATHER THAN RECYCLED.

DESPITE THE ENVIRONMENTAL ARGUMENTS FOR RECYCLING, IT'S BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT FOR PLANTS LIKE THIS TO COMPETE AND MAKE A RETURN ON THEIR INVESTMENT.
CROP COMMENTS:
MORE GOOD NEWS FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN CALIFORNIA. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS THE DETAILS IN CROP COMMENTS.
GOOD MORNING CLINTON.
CALIFORNIA'S STATE WATER AGENCY SAYS THE MOST RECENT SNOWPACK MEASUREMENT REVEALED MORE ENCOURAGING NEWS.
RAINFALL AND THE SIERRA NEVADA SNOWPACK'S  WATER CONTENT ARE GREATLY IMPROVED. AT THIS ONE LOCATION, THEY FOUND A WATER EQUIVALENT OF 25 AND A HALF INCHES. LAST YEAR DURING THE FEBRUARY SURVEY, THERE WAS JUST TWO INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT.
TEASE:
ALRIGHT WHEN WE RETURN, WE'LL LOOK AT SOME OF THE OUTSIDE MARKET MOVEMENTS INCLUDING THE CASE FOR LOCKING IN FUEL PRICES.
AND LATER, THIS WISCONSIN DAIRY FARM IS RICH IN HISTORY BUT EXCITED ABOUT IT'S FUTURE POTENTIAL.
ANALYSIS:
AS YOU HEARD, FUEL AND DIESEL PRICES ARE DOWN AT TEN YEAR LOWS.
TYNE MORGAN JOINS US FOR ANALYSIS TO DISCUSS THAT AND OTHER MARKET MOVEMENTS THAT COULD HELP IMPACT THE BOTTOM LINE.

HERE NOW WITH BILL BEIDERMAN OF ALLENDALE. BILL, WE ARE HEARING OF LA NINA HIT HEADLINES, WE ARE GOING TO HAVE ALL OF THIS DROP. IF A WEATHER SCARE DOES NOT HAPPEN, WHAT MOVES PRICES HIGHER? >
HOPEFULLY ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT I CAN THINK WOULD BE THAT THE FUNDS WOULD START TO SHORT COVER AND EVEN BE ENTICED TO GET LONG MARKET. THAT IS ABOUT THE ONLY HOPE. BEYOND THAT, IF WE GET INTO MID-YEAR AND IT IS GOOD WEATHER, IT IS GOING TO BE A PRICE PRESSURING MARKET INTO THE FALL.
TEASE:
WELCOME TO FEBRUARY. WE GOT ANOTHER SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORT COMING FROM USDA. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR YOUR RISK MANAGEMENT? WE'LL TALK ABOUT IT IN PROFARMER'S PROFIT BRIEFING FRIDAY ON AGDAY.>
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, EVERYONE IS WONDERING WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. WHERE IS FEBRUARY GOING TO TAKE US? WELL, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE GOING TO GET A COLD SHOT OF AIR NEXT WEEK. WE'RE GOING TO SHOW YOU THAT ON THE JET STREAM. AND IN THE MEANTIME, THAT BIG STORM IS MOVING AWAY AND THINGS ARE TRANQUIL. THAT MEANS JUST A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES. THAT IS ONE OVER MINNESOTA AND ONE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING EASTWARD.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
 NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FOR MEDFORD, OREGON TODAY, IT'S PARTLY SUNNY AND CHILLY. THE AFTERNOON HIGH IS AROUND 51 DEGREES. TAKING A LOOK AT HASTINGS, NEBRASKA. IT'S MOSTLY SUNNY AND NOT AS COLD. THE HIGH IS AROUND 35. AND BATON ROUGE, LOUSIANA PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CHILLY. THE HIGH IS 55.
TEASE:
OUR DROVERS REPORT LOOKS AT THE PROFITS AND HERD EXPANSION COMING UP NEXT.
AND LATER WE'LL MEET A WISCONSIN DUO BUILDING ON A LEGACY OF SUSTAINABLE SUCCESS. OUR LAST TOP PRODUCER FINALIST TODAY ON IN THE COUNTRY.
BEEF MARKET GAINS:
FROM OUR NEW REPORTING PARTNERS AT DROVERS, THE LATEST STERLING BEEF PROFIT TRACKER SHOWING IMPROVING MARGINS.
FEEDYARDS SEEING A 100 DOLLAR PER HEAD GAIN ON LOSSES...NOW PEGGED AT 245 DOLLARS PER HEAD.
IT'S THE FIRST TIME IN MONTHS ITS BEEN UNDER 300. THE FIVE AREA CASH PRICE AVERAGING 137-PER HUNDRED.
COW-CALF MARKET AT AVERAGE MARGINS:
COW CALF PROJECTIONS PUT AVERAGE CASH PROFIT MARGINS AT $237 PER COW.
LAST WEEK USDA RELEASED IT'S SEMI ANNUAL CATTLE INVENTORY REPORT. IT PUT BEEF CATTLE GROWTH AT NEARLY 4 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR...GETTING INVENTORY NUMBERS BACK TO 2011 LEVELS.
DISMAL DAIRY PRICES:
DISMAL NEWS FOR GLOBAL DAIRY PRICES. THE LATEST GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE AUCTION IN NEW ZELAND REPORTING ANOTHER DROP IN PRICES. THE AVERAGE PRICE FOR DAIRY COMMODITIES FALLING MORE THAN 7 PERCENT. BUTTER TAKING THE BIGGEST HIT, FALL 8 PERCENT TO 132 A POUND...WELL BELOW CURRENT PRICES AT THE CME.
THE ONLY GOOD NEWS, VOLUMES ARE UP ABOUT 12 PERCENT FROM TWO WEEKS AGO.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL CONTINUE THE DAIRY DISCUSSION AND MEET A WISCONSIN FARM FAMILY CELEBRATING IT'S DEEP ROOTS AND GROWING PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE.
IN THE COUNTRY:
WISCONSIN DAIRY PRODUCER RON BROOKS SAYS HE WANTS HIS CONSERVATION EFFORTS ON HIS FARM TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PART OF HIS LEGACY. 
ANOTHER KEY ELEMENT OF HIS SUCCESSION IS DAUGHTER ZOEY WHO RETURNED TO THE FARM AFTER COLLEGE. TOGETHER THEY'RE BUILDING UPON SOUND LAND STEWARDSHIP. AND BY DOING SO, THEY WERE NOMINATED FOR TOP PRODUCER OF THE YEAR HONORS.
FORGET PRICES, FORGET THE WEATHER, RON BROOKS IS EXCITED ABOUT THE FUTURE.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR BETSY JIBBEN, TYNE MORGAN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS, FRIDAY ON AGDAY OUR PARTNERS AT PROFARMER LOOK AT THE NEXT SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORT AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RISK MANAGEMENT FOR FARMERS.
AND WE'LL TOUR CALIFORNIA'S AVOCADO ORCHARDS AS THEY PREPARE FOR ANOTHER SUPER BOWL. CATCH US WEEKDAYS ON AGDAY.

 

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