AgDay Daily Recap- Feb. 5, 2016

February 5, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
FEB. 5, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY:
DESIGNATING COTTON SEED A MINOR OIL SEED IS PROVING DIFFICULT.
THE TPP GETS SIGNED BUT WILL IT BE RATIFIED HERE AT HOME.
IN THE PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING CHIP FLORY AND BRIAN GRETE TAKE A LOOK AT THE NEXT SUPPLY DEMAND REPORT.
“BUT EVEN THERE… USDA'S MORE LIKELY PLAYING CATCH UP THAN ANYTHING ELSE.”
AND SUPER FRUIT FOR THE SUPER BOWL. THESE CALIFORNIA AVOCADOS ARE GETTING PICKED AND
PACKED JUST IN TIME.
PUSH TO DESIGNATE COTTON AS AN OILSEED:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS.
SECRETARY VILSACK IS PUNTING ON A REQUEST FROM THE COTTON INDUSTRY TO DECLARE COTTON AS A MINOR OIL SEED. VILSACK SAYS HE DOES NOT HAVE AUTHORITY CHANGE THAT DESIGNATION WITHIN THE FARM BILL. DECLARING COTTON AN OILSEED WOULD HAVE MADE COTTON ELIGIBLE FOR THE ARC AND PLC SAFETY-NET PROGRAMS.
NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN JOINS US WITH MORE.
RE-DESIGNATION COULD HELP SUPPORT PRICE:
THERE'S BEEN A PUSH WITHIN THE INDUSTRY TO DESIGNATE COTTONSEED AS AN OILSEED. THE INDUSTRY SAYS THAT COULD HELP SUPPORT DWINDLING COTTON PRICES.
THE NATIONAL COTTON COUNCIL SAYS THAT'S DUE TO SMALLEST U.S. COTTON ACREAGE IN 30 YEARS, LOWER COTTON PRICES, LOWER EXPORTS AND INCREASING COMPETITION FROM SYNTHETIC FIBERS.
COTTON FARMERS STRUGGLING:
BUT THE FARMERS WHO GROW THE COTTON ARE STRUGGLING. THE PRICE PAID FOR THEIR COTTON HAS PLUMMETED. AND WHAT THEY HAVE TO BUY THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO GROW AND MAINTAIN THE CROP CONTINUES TO SKYROCKET.
"IF WE DON'T GET 15 TO 20 CENTS MORE A POUND PRETTY SOON SOMETHING HAS GOT TO CHANGE. EITHER OUR INPUTS HAVE TO COME DOWN OR WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO HAVE SOME HELP."

COTTON ONLY COVERED UNDER STAX:
CURRENTLY, COTTON IS NOT ELGIBLE FOR PRICE LOSS COVERAGE OR AGRICULTURE RISK COVERAGE -BOTH SAFETY-NET PROGRAMS UNDER THE FARM BILL. INSTEAD, GROWERS USE THE STACKED INCOME PROTECTION PLAN OR STAX. THAT PROVIDES COVERAGE FOR A PORTION OF THE EXPECTED REVENUE USDA SAYS IT DOES NOT HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO CHANGE THE COVERAGE...
ADDING THAT CHANGING COTTONSEED SUBSIDES COULD COST AS MUCH AS ONE BILLION DOLLARS OVER TEN YEARS.
THE NATIONAL COTTON COUNCIL SAYS:
"WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE USDA CLEARLY HAS THIS AUTHORITY..."
ADDING, "OUR INDUSTRY REMAINS COMMITTED TO PURSING A COTTONSEED DESIGNATION AND POLICY TO HELP PROVIDE LONG-TERM STABILITY..."
HOUSE AGRICULTURE CHAIRMAN MIKE CONAWAY SAYS USDA DOES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE A DECLARATION... SAYING
"THE DEPARTMENT HAS NOT ONLY THE LEGAL AUTHORITY TO DESIGNATE COTTONSEED AS AN 'OTHER OILSEED,' BUT THE RESPOSIBILITY TO ACT."
 BUREAUCRATIC COMPLICATIONS:
PART OF THE CONFUSION IS WHETHER VILSACK CAN JUST CHANGE A PROVISION IN THE FARM BILL OR IF IT HAS TO BE REOPENED ALL TOGETHER.
WASHINGTON EXPERTS TELL ME ANYTIME THE FARM BILL IS OPENED, IT COULD IMPACT OTHER AG SECTORS WITHIN THE BILL.
THANKS BETSY.
TPP:
EVEN THOUGH 12 TRADE MINISTERS SIGNED THE TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP THURSDAY, SENATE AGRICULTURE CHAIR PAT ROBERTS SAYS A VOTE ON THE TRADE DEAL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS.
THE COMPLEX AGREEMENT IS DESIGNED TO INCREASE TRADE AND INVESTMENT BETWEEN THE 12 COUNTRIES THAT BORDER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. TARIFFS WOULD BE ELIMINATED OR REDUCED OVER-TIME ON NUMEROUS PRODUCTS. BUT THE DEAL WON'T ACTUALLY COME INTO EFFECT UNTIL AT LEAST SIX COUNTRIES REPRESENTING AT LEAST 85 PERCENT OF THE COMBINED G-D-P OF THE 12 COUNTRIES RATIFY IT.

JOHN DEERE EAGER FOR TPP TO BE RATIFIED:
AS WE MENTIONED, SENATOR PAT ROBERTS DOESN'T EXPECT CONGRESS TO TAKE-UP RATIFICATION UNTIL A NEW ADMINISTRATION IS IN PLACE AT THE WHITE HOUSE. ONE COMPANY THAT'S NOT HAPPY TO HEAR ABOUT ANY DELAY IS JOHN DEERE. IN A NEWS RELEASE, THE EQUIPMENT MAKER SAYS 40PERCENT OF ITS REVENUES ALREADY COME FROM SALES OUTSIDE THE U-S AND CANADA.
DEERE CEO, SAMUEL ALLEN, SAYS "A ROBUST U-S TRADE AGENDA EXPANDS JOBS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AMERICAN WORKERS, FARMERS AND BUSINESSES."
CROP COMMENTS:
METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US WITH CROP COMMENTS FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY, MIKE.
GOOD MORNING CLINTON.
MANY ARE STILL DIGGING OUT FROM THIS WEEK'S SNOW STORM.
TEASE:
UP NEXT A PREVIEW OF THIS MONTHS SUPPLY DEMAND REPORT FROM USDA.
THE TEAM AT PROFARMER JOIN US FOR OUR WEEKLY PROFIT BRIEFING.
AND LATER, GOING GREEN FOR THE SUPERBOWL. THIS CALIFORNIA AVOCADOS ARE COMING OFF THE TREE JUST IN TIME FOR THE BIG GAME.
PROGRESS ON CHINA CROP TRAIT APPROVAL:
CHINA MAKING PROGRESS ON IT'S APPROVAL OF CROP TRAITS.
THE COUNTRY APPROVING ROUND UP READY 2 EXTEND SOYBEANS.
IT ADDS DICAMBA TOLERANCE TO ROUND UP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS.
 MONSANTO SAYS FARMERS ARE STILL WAITING FOR EPA TO APPROVE ITS USE OVER THE TOP OF
SOYBEANS. USDA WILL RELEASE ITS MONTHLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND LEDGER ON TUESDAY.
PROFARMER:
PROFARMER'S CHIP FLORY AND BRIAN GRETE DISCUSS THE DATA AND WHAT REACTION THE MARKET MIGHT TAKE IN THIS WEEK'S PROFIT BRIEFING.

WELL, WELCOME TO FEBRUARY EVERYBODY. BRIAN, THIS IS ONE OF THOSE MONTHS WHERE THE MARKETS TEND TRADE IN A SIDEWAYS PATTERN, BUT IT IS A VERY IMPORTANT MONTH FOR OUR RISK MANAGEMENT PLANS FOR THE YEAR AHEAD AND WE ALWAYS GET A SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORT EARLY IN THE MONTH THAT SOMETIMES CAN MOVE US ONE DIRECTION OR THE OTHER, BASED ON WHAT WE GET OUT OF SOUTH AMERICA ON THOSE CROP ESTIMATES.> RIGHT, YOU KNOW TYPICALLY IT IS JUST FINE TUNING WHEN WE LOOK AT THE DOMESTIC SUPPLY AND DEMAND TABLES. I THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN THIS YEAR.
FOR BRIAN GRETE AND ALL THE EDITORS AT PROFARMER IN CEDAR FALLS, IOWA--I'M CHIP FLORY. 
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN KICKING US THROUGH THE WEATHER WEEK HERE. MIKE, WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK? WELL, IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE MIDSECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. NOW BESIDES THE EAST COAST, THERE'S NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON. AS YOU CAN SEE, A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. WE'LL HEAD TO SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA FIRST OF ALL. IT'S MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL TODAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 61. MITCHELL, SOUTH DAKOTA IS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER COLD. THE HIGH IS 35 AND IN GREENVILLE, SOUTH CAROLINA, THERE'S PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TURNING COOLER. THE HIGH IS 50.
TEASE:
WE'LL CHECK ON THE WHEAT CROP WHEN WE GET BACK.
AND LATER, PREPARING FOR THE SUPER--BOWL, FROM CHICKEN WINGS TO CHIPS AND DIP...A LOOK AT THE AVOCADOS IN CALIFORNIA HEADING FOR A SUPER BOWL BASH NEAR YOU.
CANADA WHEAT STOCKS DOWN:
OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH SAY YEAR ENDING WHEAT STOCKS ARE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY YEAR OVER YEAR.
STATISTICS CANADA CALCULATING 2015 STOCKS NEARLY 20 PERCENT LOWER THAN 2014.
WEATHER COULD CHANGE OUTCOME FOR WHEAT GROWERS:
KIM ANDERSON WITH OKLAHOMA STATE SAYS ....RIGHT NOW THE BALANCE SHEET ISN'T PENCILING WELL FOR WHEAT GROWERS..BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE GLOBE.

SUPER BOWL WEEKEND:
IT'S SUPER BOWL WEEKEND, FOR SOME OF YOU, IT'S ALL ABOUT THE GAME. FOR OTHERS, IT'S ALL ABOUT THE T-V COMMERCIALS.
AND FOR ALL -WOULDN'T YOU SAY -IT'S ABOUT THE FOOD? 
THE NATIONAL CHICKEN COUNCIL SAYS ONE-POINTTHREE BILLION WINGS WILL BE EATEN THIS WEEKEND AS FANS WATCH THE CAROLINA PANTHERS TAKE ON THE DENVER BRONCOS. 
THAT'S A THREE PERCENT INCREASE OVER LAST YEAR. ACCORDING TO THE N-C-C, CHARLOTTE CONSUMERS BUY 14-HUNDRED DOLLARS WORTH OF WINGS FOR EVERY MILLION DOLLARS OF GROCERY SALES.
AG PICTURE FOR SUPER BOWL STATES:
TAKING A LOOK AT THE AG PICTURE FOR THE STATES REPRESENTED IN THE BIG GAME....
NORTH CAROLINA'S AG PICTURE LOOKS LIKE THIS:
HOGS REPRESENTED 25 PERCENT OF THE STATE'S AG CASH RECEIPTS. THAT'S A TWO BILLION DOLLAR BUSINESS IN NORTH CAROLINA. 
THERE'S A CLEAR WINNER IN COLORADO WHEN IT COMES TO THE AG INDUSTRY, THE CATTLE SECTOR REPRESENTS 60-PERCENT OF CASH RECEIPTS IN THE STATE. 
IT'S A THREE BILLION DOLLAR BUSINESS.
TEASE:
UP NEXT, AVOCADOES ARE ALSO A BIG WINNER DURING THE SUPER BOWL. I RECENTLY VISITED A CALIFORNIA GROVE TO LOOK AT THIS YEARS PRODUCTION. DETAILS WHEN AGDAY CONTINUES.
AVOCADOES A KEY INGREDIENT IN THE SUPER BOWL:
THE SUPER BOWL IS SET FOR THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE DENVER BRONCOS AND CAROLINA PANTHERS. AND WHILE THE COMPETITION HAPPENS ON THE FIELD, A FIGHT FOR ROOM ON THE SNACK TRAY CONTINUES TO HEAT UP. THIS YEAR, AVOCADOS WILL BE PUSHING FOR MORE SPACE.
140 MILLION POUNDS OF AVOCADO ESTIMATED TO BE CONSUMED THIS YEAR:
EARLY ESTIMATES PUT CONSUMPTION AT NEARLY 140 MILLION POUNDS WHICH IS 13 PERCENT HIGHER THAN A YEAR AGO.
WHILE PRODUCE FROM MEXICO WILL ACCOUNT FOR MOST OF THAT, SOME CALIFORNIA GROWERS EXPECT THEIR FRUIT TO ARRIVE JUST IN TIME.

IS PACKING IN A HURRY.
NATS...
THIS FRUIT IS HEADED FOR STORES--HOPEFULLY INTIME FOR THE SUPERBOWL RUSH.
 AS A COMPANY DEL REY AVOCADO WE USUALLY PRIDE OURSELVES
AT BEING THE FIRST PACKER INTO THE CALIFORNIA MARKET.
 SO WE'VE STARTED A LITTLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL BECAUSE OF
THAT DEMAND FOR CALIFORNIA AVOCADOS. 1:18
IN THE PACKING HOUSE...AND IN THE FIELD.

HIGH QUALITY CALIFORNIA AVOCADOS:
SO FAR--WHAT'S FILLING BINS IS HIGH QUALITY.  QUALITY WISE IT'S LOOKING VERY GOOD. IT'S BEEN EATING I WOULD PROBABLY SAY BETTER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT'S BEEN UNUSUALLY WARM SO THE OIL CONTENT AND THE FRUIT EATING IS VERY GOOD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
400 MILLION POUNDS OF AVOCADO ESTIMATED TO BE HARVESTED:
THE CALIFORNIA AVOCADO COMMISSION FORECASTS NEARLY 400 MILLION POUNDS OF CALIFORNIA AVOCADOS WILL BE HARVESTED IN 2016. BUT RIGHT NOW--IT'S MEXICO THAT'S DOMINATING SHIPMENTS.
MEXICO STILL DOMINATES  IN SHIPMENTS:
MEXICO THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS THEY'VE BEEN BRINGING IN OVER 50 MILLION POUNDS GETTING READY FOR THE SUPERBOWL AND THE CONSUMPTION FOR THE SUPERBOWL JUST KEEPS GROWING EVERY YEAR.  IT MIGHT SEEM LIKE A LOT OF FRUIT BUT AMAZINGLY IT GETS CONSUMED
SO FAR, PRICES ARE HOLDING...ENCOURAGING BOTH PICKERS AND PACKERS TO KEEP THESE CALIFORNIA AVOCADOS MOVING--FROM TREE TO TABLE.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND BETSY JIBBEN, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY IN FARM COUNTRY.

PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. MONDAY ON AGDAY MACHINERY PETE JOINS US FOR HIS WEEKLY LOOK AT USED EQUIPMENT DEALS. PLUS, CRAFT-BEER MAKERS WORRY THEY COULD GET "SWALLOWED-UP" BY THE BIG BREWERS. WATCH US WEEKDAYS RIGHT HERE ON AGDAY.

 

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