AgDay Daily Recap -February 11, 2015

February 11, 2015 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
FEBRUARY 11, 2015

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - NEW SUPPLY DEMAND NUMBERS SURPRISE THE TRADE...BUT IS IT ENOUGH TO MOVE MARKETS.LIVESTOCK INDEMNITY PAYMENTS HELPED DISASTER STRESSED PRODUCERS BUT IT MAY ALSO MEAN A BIG TAX BILL.IN AGRIBUSINESS...THE FINANCIAL CHALLENGES AHEAD FOR FARMERS.WE'VE GOT VERY COMPLACENT WITH LENDING MONEY WITH SPENDING MONEY PIGLETT NUMBERS REBOUND AS PEDV IMPACTS EASE..AND THESE WISCONSIN DAIRYMEN ARE PASSIONATE ABOUT HELPING THEIR FELLOW FARMERS EVEN IF THEY'RE OVERSEAS. AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO…
S&D:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. THE MARKET REACTION WAS MIXED TUESDAY AS THE AG DEPARTMENTS RELEASES ITS FEBRUARY SUPPLY AND DEMAND TABLES...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
PROFARME REAX:
THE BIGGEST SURPRISE IS PROBABLY ON THE DEMAND SIDE OF THE CORN BALANCE SHEET. USDA INCREASED FOOD, SEED AND INDUSTRIAL USE BY 75 MILLION BUSHELS WITH THE ENTIRE INCREASE GOING TO THE CORN FOR ETHANOL CATEGORY. SO, BIG INCREASE IN THAT CORN FOR ETHANOL. THAT'S A NUMBER THAT'S PROBABLY GOING TO GET A LOT OF DEBATE IN THE WEEKS FOLLOWING THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORT IN THE INDUSTRY. LET'S FACE IT. THAT ETHANOL PRODUCTION IS STARTING TO SLOW DOWN, BUT MOST OF THAT SLOW-DOWN OCCURRED IN FEBRUARY, NOT IN JANUARY," SAID CHIP FLORY.
S&D:
SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS WERE LOWERED BY 25 MILLION BUSHELS. THEY NOW SIT AT 385 MILLION BUSHELS. BOTH CORN AND SOY ESTIMATES ARE TOWARD THE LOW-END OF PRIVATE ANALYSTS PROJECTION, AND DOMESTIC WHEAT ENDING STOCKS WERE BUMPED HIGHER BY FIVE MILLION BUSHELS DUE TO A BIG GLOBAL WHEAT CROP AND A STRONGER U-S DOLLAR.
SOUTH AMERICAN BEAN CORP:
PERHAPS THE MORE IMPORTANT ESTIMATES COME FROM SOUTH AMERICA WHERE SOYBEAN HARVEST IS JUST GETTING UNDERWAY. THE AG DEPARTMENT PUSHED THE ARGENTINA SOYBEAN CROP HIGHER BY A MILLION TONS. IT NOW COMES IN AT 56 MILLION TONS. THEY'VE HAD VERY GOOD WEATHER CONDITIONS.BUT USDA TRIMMED THE SIZE OF THE BRAZILIAN SOYBEAN CROP BY A MILLION TONS. IT NOW COMES IN AT 94-AND-A-HALF MILLION. THE REDUCTION IS DUE TO SMALLER RAINFALL TOTALS IN EASTERN REGIONS.
NET FARM INCOME:
NO SURPRISE HERE - BUT WITH LOW GRAIN PRICES, ROW-CROP PRODUCERS WILL SEE THEIR INCOME DECLINE THIS YEAR. WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THAT FOR MONTHS. BUT NOW, THE AG DEPARTMENT IS TELLING US JUST HOW BIG OF A HIT THE INDUSTRY COULD TAKE.
CATTLE INDEMNITY:
IT'S BEEN ONE YEAR SINCE A NEW FARM BILL WAS PASSED WITH CHANGES TO THE LIVESTOCK INDEMNITY PROGRAM, LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS.
TEASE:
JUST AHEAD, A CLOSER LOOK AT THE DAYS TRADE AND AN OUTLOOK FOR 2015. CAN FARMERS MAKE THEIR FINANCES WORK IN 2015?
ANALYSIS INTRO:
YESTERDAY AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL DISCUSSED THE OUTLOOK FOR DAIRY PRODUCERS IN 2015. TODAY...HE'S FOCUSING ON GRAIN FARMERS...AND THE FINANCIAL STRAINS AHEAD IN 2015.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, WE'RE TALKING OFF-AIR, DO YOU THINK WE COULD BE ENTERING ONE OF THE COLDEST COUPLE WEEK STRETCHES THAT WE'VE SEEN ALL WINTER? I SAY SO ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLAINS. THEY HAVEN'T SEEN A WHOLE LOT OF COLD AIR THIS WINTER, BUT THERE'S NO QUESTION, THERE'S MULTIPLE SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR COMING SOUTHEAST. THE NORTHEAST IS JUST GOING TO STAY COLD. LET'S CHECK OUT THE WEATHER MAPS. AS YOU CAN SEE, WHAT'S LEADING THAT COLD AIR IS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL BE SPREADING SOME SNOW THROUGH THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY TODAY. FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW…THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG LAKE EFFECT SNOW-MAKER. WE HAVEN'T SEEN TOO MANY OF THESE SO FAR THIS WINTER. THIS ONE IS GOING TO BE ONE OF THOSE FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. HUGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD, BUT YOU CAN SEE A LITTLE BIT OF UP-SLOP RAIN AND SNOW IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS KEEPING IT DRY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THIS IS AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS SPREADING INTO FLORIDA. AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW MORNING, LOOK AT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I KNOW YOU THINK ABOUT HOW THAT CAN BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN. BUT BELIEVE ME, SOME OF THAT IS MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE EERIE. THAT'S AMAZING TO SEE THAT GO SO FAR SOUTH. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS CAUSING SOME RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE DONE WITH CALIFORNIA FOR A LITTLE WHILE HERE. LOOK AT THE ONE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OUR COMPUTER MODEL IS PICKING THAT UPCOMING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN INDIANA. THAT GOES WELL SOUTH AND SOME OF THAT ENDS UP IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN. LET'S CHECK PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. NOT A LOT AS YOU CAN SEE. ADDING ON THE NEXT 36 AND WE'RE GOING TO ADD SOME THROUGHOUT THE GREAT LAKES OBVIOUSLY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, BECAUSE OF THIS BIG DRY AIR MASS COMING SOUTHWARD, WE DON'T SEE A LOT OF MOISTURE OUT THERE. CHECKING OUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, YOU CAN SEE PARTS OF COLORADO ARE UP SLOPE REGIONS, HAVE SOME OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. ADDING ON THE NEXT 36, IT'S MAINLY GOING TO BE SPREADING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES AND THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON THE MILD SIDE FROM THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHWARD STILL SOME SIXTIES AND SEVENTIES IN TEXAS, BUT HIGHS FALLING THROUGH THE TEENS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, LOWS TOMORROW MORNING ARE -10 IN PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA. SINGLE DIGITS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES…THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR COMING IN. IT STAYS COLD TOMORROW WITH LOTS OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. IT'S EVEN CHILLY IN THE NORTHERN DIXIE. HERE'S THE JET STREAM. THIS TELLS A STORY. EACH ONE OF THESE TROUGHS IS A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. YOU SEE TWO HERE AND A THIRD COMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT JUST KEEPS COMING, FOLKS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST TWO WEEKS OF THIS. IF NOT, MUCH LONGER FOR THE COLD AIR TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CORN BELT. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. HERE'S BEND, OREGON FOR TODAY. IT'S MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 59 DEGREE. PINE BLUFF, ARKANSAS, IS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD. THE HIGH IS 55. WE'LL GO TO ALBANY, NEW YORK, IT'S COLD WITH A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE. THE HIGH IS 50.
HOG INDUSTRY RECOVERING:
NEW NUMBERS FROM USDA SHOW THE LITTER RATE---OR THE NUMBER OF PIGS PER LITTER--IS BACK ON THE UPTREND. THE NUMBER IS CONSIDERED AN INDICATOR OF EFFICENCY FOR THE INDUSTRY. THE START OF PEDV IN THE SPRING 2013 CAUSED A SHARP DROP IN LITTER RATES. NUMBERS ARE NOW REBOUNDING....MOVING BACK TOWARD TREND LINE.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. NEW NUMBERS FROM USDA SHOW THE LITTER RATE---OR THE NUMBER OF PIGS PER LITTER--IS BACK ON THE UPTREND. THE NUMBER IS CONSIDERED AN INDICATOR OF EFFICENCY FOR THE INDUSTRY. THE START OF PEDV IN THE SPRING 2013 CAUSED A SHARP DROP IN LITTER RATES. NUMBERS ARE NOW REBOUNDING....MOVING BACK TOWARD TREND LINE.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

 

 

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