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AgDay Daily Recap -February 19, 2015

08:57AM Feb 19, 2015

TODAY ON AGDAY
FEBRUARY 19, 2015

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY  USDA ROLLS OUT IT'S LONG RANGE PRICE FORECASTS...AND IT COULD BE TOUGH SLEDDING FOR GRAIN GROWERS. RECORD SNOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND RECORD WARMTH TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT SOME CROPS COULD BE AT RISK. IN AGRIBUSINESS....PRODUCERS STILL HOLD LOTS OF GRAIN IN STORAGE...AND A GROWING MIDDLE CLASS IN CHINA MEANS MORE OFF-SEASON WORK FOR LOBSTERMEN IN MAINE.
AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO…
PRICE OUTLOOK:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS.THE PICTURE OF THE NEXT DECADE ISN'T A ROSY ONE FOR GRAIN GROWERS ACCORDING TO A NEWLY RELEASED OUTLOOK FORECAST FROM USDA...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
FARM INCOME:
THE USDA ALSO EXPECTS NET FARM INCOME TO FALL BY A THIRD IN 2015....ON TRACK FOR THE LOWEST FARM INCOME SINCE 2009...AND THE BIGGEST ONE YEAR DROP SINCE 1932. AGDAY'S BETSY JIBBEN TALKED WITH AG ECONOMISTS ABOUT HOW THIS COULD IMPACT FARMERS IN THE YEAR AHEAD.
SOYBEAN ACRES:
LOWER CROP PRICES ARE ALREADY ENTICING DECISIONS IN THE FIELD.A RECENT BLOOMBERG SURVEY OF ANALYSTS SHOWS THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1970, CORN PLANTING COULD DECLINE FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT SEASON. MEANWHILE, SOYBEANS ACRES EXPECTED TO EXPAND TO THE HIGHEST EVER.
THE BLOOMBERG SURVEY SHOWING NEARLY A 3 PERCENT INCREASE WITH PLANTS ABOVE 86 MILLION ACRES…CORN ACRES WERE PINNED AT 89 MILLION.
WARM PNW:
WHILE THE NORTHEAST IS BURIED UNDER SNOW, THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN HOSTING THE OPPOSITE OF THE WINTER WEATHER SPECTRUM. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS IN CROPWATCH, MIKE.
TANKER RULES:
ALRIGHT THANKS MIKE. FOLLOWING THIS WEEK'S OIL TANKER CRASH AND EXPLOSION ON A WEST VIRGINIA RAIL LINE, THERE ARE RENEWED CALLS FOR MORE SAFETY RULES.
TEASE:
U-S GRAIN FARMERS ARE SITTING ON A LOT OF LAST YEARS GRAIN, WHAT KIND OF PROBLEMS COULD THAT BACKLOG CAUSE THIS YEAR? WE'LL TAKE A LOOK IN ANALYSIS. THERE'S NEW INFORMATION THIS MORNING ABOUT A CASE OF BSE IN CANADA. WE'LL HAVE AN UPDATE.
CME REPORT:
IN AGRIBUSINESS TODAY - MOST OF THE MAJOR GRAINS HAD A DOWN DAY WEDNESDAY. LET'S FIND OUT WHY AS WE HEAD TO THE FLOOR OF THE C-M-E.
ANALYSIS INTRO:
EARLIER IN THE SHOW, WE TALKED ABOUT PLANTING INTENTIONS FOR THE UP COMING SEASON. TYNE MORGAN CONTINUES THAT CONVERSATION IN THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS.
ANALYSIS:
WE'RE HERE NOW WITH MATT BENNETT OF BENNETT CONSULTING MATT TRAVELS ACROSS THE COUNTRY TALKING TO SOME FARMS SO YOU HAVE A GOOD PULSE OF WHAT'S GOING ON RIGHT NOW LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS OLD CROP SITUATION HOW MUCH STARING OFF IN SOYBEANS HOW MUCH OLD CROP ARE WE SITTING ON MATT?  I DON'T THINK THERE IS NEAR MUCH RELATIVELY SPEAKING OF SOYBEANS AS WHAT THERE IS OF CORN BUT IN MY OPINION THERE'S TO MUCH YOU KNOW WHENEVER YOU LOOK AT THE SOYBEAN MARKET I THINK WE'VE GOTTEN EVERY INDICATOR WE COULD POSSIBLY GET THE MARKET IS BASICALLY BEEN IN A INVERSE FOR QUITE SOME TIME BUT THEN OF COURSE RIGHT THERE'S A SMALL CARRY BUT WE WERE IN AN INVERSE FOREVER AND SO IN MY OPINION WE REALLY NEED TO MOVE THOSE CORN IS A DIFFERENT DEAL A LOT OF GUYS ARE SITTING ON CORN BUSHELS I THINK THAT ESPECIALLY COMMERCIALLY SPEAKING WE NEED TO BE MOVING MOST OF THOSE AND THEN AS FAR AS ON THE FARM STORAGE THAT'S A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT STORY.   WELL WE HAD SO MUCH EMERGENCY STORAGE THIS YEAR THAT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT I'M STILL SEEING A LOT OF THAT SITTING ON THE GROUND NOW SO WHAT DO WE NEED TO ABOUT THAT STORAGE SITUATION? WELL I THINK AS FAR AS THE ELEVATORS GO THAT'S THE FIRST THING THEY WANT TO GET UP ESPECIALLY IF THERE'S ANY QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY CAN KEEP THAT OR NOT BUT I THINK AS FAR THAT STORAGE GOES A LOT OF IT ACTUALLY IN MY NECK OF THE WOODS DISAPPEARED FAIRLY QUICKLY WE'RE ONLY 45 MILES FROM DECATUR AND THEY GO THROUGH 8 TO 900 THOUSAND YOU KNOW A DAY AND SO OBVIOUSLY A LOT OF THAT IS GETTING GROUND UP BUT I DO THINK THAT WILL BE THE FIRST TO DISAPPEAR. WHEN WE LOOK AT THIS ACREAGE BATTLE FOR NEXT YEAR WHAT ARE YOU THINKING IN TALKING WITH ALL OF YOUR FARMERS WHAT ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? TALKING TO FARMERS AND TALKING TO SEED DEALERS HAS REALLY TOLD ME QUITE A BIT AND SO THE THING THAT I KEEP HEARING ON AN OVER WHELMING SENSE IS THAT ANY MARGINAL ACRES FOR THE MOST PART ARE GOING TO BE GOING TO SOYBEANS ANY REALLY GOOD HIGH PRODUCTIVE GROUND STILL MIGHT GET A FEW CORN ON CORN ACRES BUT YOUR TRADITIONAL CORN ON CORN GUYS A LOT OF THOSE GUYS ARE GOING TOWARD BEANS THEY THINK WE'LL GET A YIELD BUMP FROM IT FIRST OF ALL SECOND OF ALL IT'S NOT NEAR AS EXPENSIVE TO PUT IT OUT AND AGIAN I JUST WANT TO SAY THAT YOU KNOW THE RATIO FROM BEANS TO CORN I'M GOING TO THROW IT OUT THE WINDOW WITH INPUT PRICES WHERE THEY'RE AT WE REALLY NEED A BIG RALLY IN THIS CORN MARKET IN MY OPINION TO GET ABOVE MAYBE 87 AND A HALF MILLION ACRES I THINK WE'RE GOING TO BE UNDER THAT IN BEANS WE'RE PROBABLY GOING PLANT MORE THAN CORN. MATT BENNETT CONSULTING WELL PLEASE STAY WITH US WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE AGDAY IN JUST A MOMENT.
USDA OUTLOOK:
IN OUR BEEF TODAY REPORT, USDA'S OUTLOOK FORUM INCLUDED LONG TERM FORECASTS FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION. ECONOMISTS EXPECTING BEEF TO FALL BEHIND BOTH PORK AND POULTRY IN TERMS OF POUNDS PRODUCED.
PORT UPDATE:
AN ISSUE CURRENTLY IMPACTING BEEF MARKETS, THE STANDOFF AT WEST COAST PORTS…
THE U.S. LABOR SECRETARY TOM PEREZ PLANNING TO HOLD A SECOND ROUND OF TALKS WITH SHIPPING COMPANY EXECUTIVE AND UNION LEADERS. THIS FOLLOWS MONTHS OF DISAGREEMENTS, SLOWDOWNS AND STANDOFFS. PEREZ IS IN CALIFORNIA ON THE PRESIDENT'S REQUEST. A MOVE CATTLE INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE URGING AS U.S. PRODUCT SITS IN FREEZERS AND GETS REROUTED TO DOMESTIC MARKETS.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

 

 

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