AgDay Daily Recap -February 2, 2015

February 2, 2015 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
FEBRUARY 2, 2015

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - ARE CATTLE NUMBERS FINALLY STARTING TO TICK HIGHER. WE'VE GOT THE LATEST INVENTORY FROM USDA. PLUS, DROUGHT CONCERNS CONTINUE OUT WEST. IN AGRIBUSINESS...THE CONNECTION BETWEEN GLOBAL ECONOMIES, US COMMODITIES AND THE VALUE OF A DOLLAR…A LOT OF IT IS COMING FROM OVER SEAS WHERE PEOPLE FIND THEIR CURRENCY ARE DEVALUING AND THEIR LOSING ASSET. MACHINERY PETE COMPARES ONLINE TO ON-SITE AUCTION PRICES. AND THE KOO-GEN CAPITAL OF NORTH DAKOTA INVITES YOU IN FOR A SWEET TREAT. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
CALI MEASURES:
SURVEYORS FOR THE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES CONDUCTED ITS MONTHLY 'ON-LOCATION' MEASUREMENT. YOU CAN SEE THEY DIDN'T HAVE TO WALK THROUGH DEEP SNOW TO GET TO THEIR REGULAR TESTING SITE. THE NEWS ISN'T GOOD IN THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS WHERE MUCH OF THE STATE'S WATER IS "STORED" IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THEY FOUND LITTLE - IF ANY - NEW SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. AND THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE THEIR WET SEASON.
CROP WATCH:
OF COURSE FOR SEVERAL YEARS WHEN WE DISCUSSED DROUGHT, TEXAS WAS THE FOCUS. BUT THINGS HAVE BEEN LOOKING UP. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS IN CROPWATCH.
KEYSTONES:
TODAY IS THE DEADLINE FOR FEDERAL AGENCIES TO GIVE FEEDBACK TO THE STATE DEPARTMENT OVER THE PROPOSED KEYSTONE X-L PIPELINE. THERE'S STILL NO WORD AS TO WHEN THE STATE DEPARTMENT COULD DECIDE ON THE MATTER. IT'S UNDER THEIR JURISDICTION SINCE THE LINE WOULD CROSS AN INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
TEASE:
UP NEXT, WE'LL CHECK ON MARKETS AT THE CME GROUP IN CHICAGO. PLUS, A CLOSER LOOKS AT HOW THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR IS IMPACTING GLOBAL TRADE.
ANALYSIS:
OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRI BUSINESS DESK, JIM BOWER OF BOWER TRADING…JIM, ONE OF THE THINGS I'D LIKE TO TALK ABOUT, YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT A LOT IN TERMS OF THE DOLLAR AND HOW THAT EFFECTS WHAT HAPPENS NOT ONLY TO THE AGRICULTURE MARKETS, BUT ALSO TO OUR ECONOMY. SO WHAT IS GOING ON? WELL KIND OF, IN MORE SPECIFIC TERMS, IT HASN'T BEEN ALL THAT LONG AGO WHERE THE DOLLAR WAS DOWN IN THE MID 70S, AND OF COURSE ON THIS PROGRAM WE TALKED ABOUT THIS. YOU AND I VERY SPECIFICALLY, WE TALKED ABOUT HOW LONG CAN THIS LAST LIKE THIS? AND AT THAT TIME OF COURSE THE LOWER DOLLAR WAS HELPING PICK UP THE ECONOMY AND WAS HELPING EXPORTS. THE MARKET HAS SINCE RALLIED BECAUSE OUR ECONOMY IS DOING BETTER HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, DOMESTICALLY. I MEAN I'VE BEEN IN NEW YORK CITY, I'VE BEEN IN BILLINGS, MONTANA, I'VE BEEN TO CHICAGO, GETTING READY TO GO TO WEST MONROE, LOUISIANA. THINGS ARE DOING PRETTY GOOD HERE, EVERY PLACE YOU LOOK THERE IS ACTIVITY. THE PROBLEM RIGHT NOW WITH THE MARKETS, IT'S NOT THE FACT THE DOLLAR IS RALLYING. AND I THINK THE MARKET EXPECTS THAT AND I THINK IT'S GOING HIGHER. BUT IT'S THE PACE OR THE ACCELERATION IN THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR THAT'S GONE UP SO FAST AND IT'S STARTING TO SCARE PEOPLE AND IT'S STARTING TO SCARE THE MARKETS BECAUSE IT'S HAPPENING TOO FAST.  A LOT OF THE MONEY THAT'S BEING POURED INTO THE DOLLAR, A LOT OF IT IS COMING FROM OVER SEAS WHERE PEOPLE FIND THEIR CURRENCY ARE DEVALUING AND THEIR LOSING ASSET. SO THEY'RE COMING OVER HERE AND TEMPORARILY BUYING THE DOLLAR OR BUYING OUR BONDS. WHETHER IT'S THE RIGHT THING OR NOT, THEY'RE DOING IT BECAUSE THEY DON'T KNOW WHERE TO GO…THEY'RE SCARED TO DEATH AND IT'S ACCELERATING THE MOVEMENT OF OUR DOLLAR UP MORE QUICKLY WHICH IS KIND OF DAMPENING DOWN COMMODITY PRICES WHICH ARE AT OR NEAR TWELVE YEAR LOWS RIGHT NOW. SO, OUR COUNTRY REALLY IS A PLACE FOR THE FOREIGN PEOPLE TO SAVE THEIR MONEY BASICALLY? RIGHT NOW, SAVE IS NOT THE WORD I WANT TO USE. I'D SAY THEIR PARKING IT HERE. BECAUSE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY, THERE'S SO MANY CROSS CURRENTS THEY DON'T KNOW WHERE TO GO. IF YOU'RE IN THE UKRAINE, YOU'RE IN VENEZUELA, ANY OF THE OIL PRODUCING COUNTRY, WHERE DO I GO? WHERE DO I GO TO PROTECT WHAT I HAVE? SO THEY LOOK AT THE DOLLAR, THEY LOOK AT THE STOCK MARKET AND THEY SAY LET'S GO THERE AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. NOW WHAT THAT'S DOING, IT'S FORCING OUR BOND PRICES UP TO THE RECORD HIGH LEVELS OR RECORD LOW INTEREST RATES. SO WHERE THERE'S DANGER, WHERE THERE IS DANGER NOW THERE IS RISK BUT THERE'S ALWAYS OPPORTUNITY. SO WHERE DOES THE OPPORTUNITY LIE, TO ME, AS A LONGER TERM TRADER, AS LONG TERM ADVISER, I THINK WE LOOK TO LOCK IN INTEREST RATES BY SHORTING THE BONDS TO PROTECT THE OPERATING CAPITAL THAT WE MIGHT HAVE TO BORROW AGAIN, SO. AGAIN, IT HASN'T BEEN ALL THAT LONG AGO, WELL I GUESS IT'S BEEN QUITE A WHILE AGO BUT I CAN REMEMBER OPERATING LOANS AT 21 PERCENT. WE'RE JUST FRACTIONS OF THAT NOW. SO I'D SAY NOW IS THE TIME TO LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITIES TO LOCK IN THE COST OF MONEY. JIM BOWER, BOWER TRADE. HE'S BEEN OUR GUEST HERE AT AGDAY. BACK FOR MORE IN A MOMENT.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY ON THIS MONDAY MORNING. METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US. MIKE, CHECKING OUT THE JET STREAM HERE, LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LITTLE DIP TO START THE WEEK. YEAH. COLD AIR COMING THIS IS ACTUALLY THE FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. COUPLE OF SHOTS COMING THIS WEEK AND A SNOW STORM EXITING THE EAST COAST… SO LET'S CHECK THINGS OUT ON THE MAP THIS MORNING. AS YOU CAN SEE IN THE EAST, A BIG TROUGH IS FORMED. AND THAT IS BRINGING IN THE FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BUT THAT ALSO IS PUSHING OUT THAT SNOWSTORM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND NOW IS GOING TO BE EXITING THE EAST COAST. YOU CAN SEE ANOTHER LITTLE TROUGH THERE, THAT'S GOING TO DIG INTO THE WHOLE SYSTEM. THAT'LL BRING ANOTHER SHOT, DIRECT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AND A LOT OF THAT GOES PRETTY FAR SOUTH OVER THE COMING WEEK. BUT THE RIDGE REMAINS OUT WEST FOR THE MOST PART, AND THAT KEEPS YOU FOLKS ON THE MILD SIDE.  SO LET'S CHECK THINGS OUT FOR THIS WEEK. WE'RE LOOKING FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BASICALLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD, ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST EXCEPT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. AND THEN YOU CAN SEE IT'S VERY QUICKLY TO THE WEST WE GO TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE WESTERN STATES. THAT'S BEEN FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS YEAR. YOU FOLKS IN THE PLAIN HAVE SEEN WIDE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES GOING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE BELOW NORMAL AREA OF THE EAST AND ABOVE NORMAL TO THE WEST. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEEK, YOU CAN SEE ABOVE NORMAL FROM EXTREMELY SOUTH TEXAS, SOUTHERN LOUISIANA, ALL THE WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD, INCLUDING FLORIDA FOR A CHANGE. AND BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF TEXAS, CENTRAL PLAIN STATES, BACK INTO THE FOUR CORNER REGION AND MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST. ALRIGHT, HERE'S OUR 90 DAY OUTLOOK. WE'RE GOING TO SPLIT UP THE MONTHS FOR THE TEMPERATURES, THOUGH SO FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE GREAT LAKES, THE NORTH EAST, SOUTH EAST EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA, ALL THE WAY DOWN TO TEXAS SO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE COUNTRY COLDER THEN NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS ABOVE NORMAL MONTANA TO WASHINGTON SOUTHWARD TO WESTERN ARIZONA, AND CALIFORNIA…GOING INTO MARCH THEN, WE'LL TAKE AWAY THAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES BUT KEEP IT BELOW NORMAL FROM IOWA, ILLINOIS, INDIANA, OHIO, SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST AND BACK INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST AS YOU CAN SEE INCLUDING MONTANA, KIND OF A SIMILAR AREA THERE. GOING ONTO APRIL THEN, YOU CAN SEE THAT WE'RE LOOKING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM IOWA, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, AND ALL THE WAY BACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. MOST OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES DOWN INTO CALIFORNIA AND ALSO BELOW NORMAL AS YOU CAN SEE IN THE NORTH EAST, EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, MUCH OF NEW YORK. A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CORN BELT, AT LEAST EAST OF IOWA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO. SO THIS COULD BE A LITTLE BETTER THEN LAST YEAR'S START TO THE GROWING SEASON. AND THAT'S SOME GOOD NEWS. 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH EAST, GULF COAST…MOST OF THE SOUTH WEST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, MINNESOTA AND IOWA AND AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST…THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY, NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FOR FRESNO, CALIFORNIA TODAY, MORNING FOG AROUND AND PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH OF 63 DEGREES IN   KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, HIGH AROUND 34, AND FINALLY, AIKEN, SOUTH CAROLINA, MOSTLY CLOUDY, SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THE AFTERNOON HIGH AROUND 56.
TEASE:
UP NEXT, THE SHIRINKING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ONLINE AND ON-SITE AUCTION PRICES…MACHINERY PETE HAS DETAILS NEXT IN HIS MONDAY MORNING REPORT.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

 

 

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