AgDay Daily Recap -February 27, 2017

February 27, 2017 02:57 AM
 
AgDay

TODAY ON AGDAY
FEBRUARY 27, 2017


HEADLINES
WORK ON THE NEW FARM BILL GETS UNDERWAY... MIKE HOFFMAN HAS HIS 90 DAY FORECAST... IN AGRIBUSINESS...PREDICTIONS ARE HARD TO  PREDICT. MACHINERY PETE SHOWS US SOME ON FARM  INNOVATORS. AND THE FEBRUARY WARM UP HAS MICHIGAN FRUIT  GROWERS ON EDGE. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO.

FARM BILL WORK
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. WITH FARM INCOMES EXPECTED TO BE LOW AGAIN IN  2017, CONGRESS IS ALREADY GETTING WORK ON A NEW  FARM BILL. THAT WORK OFFICIALLY KICKING OFF IN MANHATTAN  KANSAS. ON THURSDAY THE SENATE AG COMMITTEE HELD IT'S  FIRST PUBLIC HEARING. CHAIRMAN PAT ROBERTS AND RANKING MEMBER  DEBBIE STABENOW LISTENING TO 18 WITNESSES  DURING THE EVENT. THOSE FOLKS STRESSING THE IMPORTANCE OF A  STRONG SAFETY NET, SUPPORTIVE TRADE AND  EXPANDING EXPORTS. THE LAST FARM BILL ESTABLISHED A NEW TITLE ONE  PROGRAM FOR DAIRY CALLED THE MARGIN  PROTECTION PROGRAM OR MPP THE FINAL VERSION OF  THE PROGRAM WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY DESIGNED BY NATIONAL MILK CUT THE MPP BENEFIT BY 10% RENDERING THE PROGRAM INEFFECTIVE THAT  PROGRAM IS NOT WORKING AS WE KNOW IT TODAY THE  CHANGES THAT CONGRESS MADE TO THE ORIGINAL  MPP DILUTED THE REAL COST THAT FARMERS LIKE  MYSELF FACE EVERY DAY AND DILUTED THE  EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT PROGRAM. "THE LAST FARM BILL ESTABLISHED A NEW TITLE ONE PROGRAM FOR DAIRY CALLED THE MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM OR MPP THE FINAL VERSION OF THE PROGRAM WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY DESIGNED BY NATIONAL MILK CUT THE MPP BENEFIT BY 10% RENDERING THE PROGRAM INEFFECTIVE THAT PROGRAM IS NOT WORKING AS WE KNOW IT TODAY THE CHANGES THAT CONGRESS MADE TO THE ORIGINAL MPP DILUTED THE REAL COST THAT FARMERS LIKE MYSELF FACE EVERY DAY AND DILUTED THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THAT PROGRAM." THE HOUSE AGRICULTURE COMMITTEE WILL  CONTINUING THEIR FARM BILL OVERSIGHT HEARINGS  WITH SUBCOMMITTEE HEARINGS THIS WEEK  HOUSE AG COMMITTEE CHAIRMAN MIKE CONAWAY TOLD  THE AG OUTLOOK FORUM HE EXPECTS THE FARM BILL  TO BE FINISHED THIS YEAR OR EARLY NEXT. HE ALSO DOESN'T EXPECT A MAJOR REWRITE WITH A  COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS -- LIKELY DAIRY AND COTTON.

BEEF TRADE
WITH TRADE SUCH A HOT ISSUE, IOWA GOVERNOR  TERRY BRANSTAD IS ALREADY PREPPING FOR HIS  AMBASSADORSHIP TO CHINA.TELLING FOLKS AT THE USDA AG OUTLOOK FORUM --  PART OF HIS FOCUS--WIIL BE ON REOPENING THE  CHINESE MARKET TO U.S. BEEF EXPORTS.THE U.S. BEEF INDUSTRY SAYS A GROWING HERD  MEANS AN INCREASING NEED FOR DEMAND.  BETSY JIBBEN TAKES A LOOK AT U.S. BEEF TRADE AND  WHICH EXPORT PARTNERS COULD HELP AMERICAN  PRODUCERS.   THOSE WORKING IN AGRICULTURE KNOW- TRADE IS ESSENTIAL IN THE INDUSTRY.  <"LAST YEAR WE EXPORTED ABOUT 130 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS,"> CATTLE PRODUCERS WANT TO CONTINUE TO BUILD EXPORT DEMAND TO HELP  CONTROL SOME OF THE 'NEW RANGE IN PRICES.' <"PRICES ARE DOWN COMPARED TO WHERE WE HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST  2 OR 3 YEARS. IF YOU'RE A STOCKER PRODUCER OR COW-CALF, YOU NEED  TO MANAGE YOUR COSTS,"> THE TALK OF TRADE IS UNCERTAIN WITH POSSIBILITY OF THE NEW  ADMINISTRATION EXITING, REOPENING GOR ADDING NEW DEALS WHILE ALL  PREMATURE- INDUSTRY EXPERTS SAY ANY TRADE UNCERTANTITY IS AN  ISSUE.  <"ANY TYPE OF UNCERTANTITY WITH TRADE ISUES IS NOT GOING TO BE  GOOD FOR PRICE. IT'S NOT ENCOURAGING BUYING, IT'S NOT GOING TO GET  BUYERS AGGRESSIVE,"> BUT INDUSTRY LEADERS SAY DEMAND HAS BEEN STRONG  INTERNATIONALLY.  <"WE SEE INTERNATIONAL MARKETS GROWING. WE'RE ALSO DOING A  GOOD JOB OF DISPLACING SOME OF OUR COMPETITION HERE RECENTLY,"> <"WE'RE CONTINUING TO SEE THAT STRING OF SOLID EXPORTS. THAT COULD  BE A HUGE POSITIVE FACTOR FOR THE U.S. BEEF INDUSTRY GOING FORWARD  IN 2017,"> EVEN THOUGH EXPORTS ARE STRONG. INDUSTRY  LEADERS SAY THERE SEEMS TO BE A MISCONCEPTION  ABOUT THE U.S. IMPORTING BEEF- SAYING  IMPORTS ARE  NOT BEHIND LOWER PRICES. <"ACTUALLY, OUR BEEF IMPORTS WERE DOWN 11 PERCENT IN 2016 AND  THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DOWN ANOTHER 7 TO 10 PERCENT IN 2017.  WELL, BEEF IMPORTS WERE DOWN 3 PERCENT COMPARED TO A DECADE  AGO,"> <"THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF DRAMA ABOUT WHY ARE WE IMPORTING  BRAZILIAN BEEF, AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE PRODUCTS WE MOVE-  EXPORT AND IMPORT ARE DIFFERENT PRODUCTS. WE'RE IMPORTING MORE  LEAN. WHY? BECAUSE WE DON'T PRODUCE IT. SO WE HAVE TO  GRIND IT UP HERE INTO OUR LOWER PRODUCTS TO BE  ABLE TO MOVE THAT PRODUCT."> <"CATTLE NUMBERS WERE DOWN IN 2012 BECAUSE OF THE DROUGHT.  WE IMPORTED MORE BEEF. THERE'S BEEN LESS BEEF COMING IN HERE  THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS,"> SENG SAYS  IF THE U.S. IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE  ONE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST EXPORTER, THE  COUNTRY ALSO HAS TO BE AN IMPORTER.  <"I SEE US CONTINUING TO IMPORT BEEF BUT I SEE US CONTINUING TO  EXPORT MUCH MORE BEEF."> BUT THERE ARE SOME NEW DEALS IN THE WORKS.  IN 2016, THE U.S. AND BRAZIL REOPENED ITS MARKETS  FOR FRESH AND FROZEN BEEF SHIPMENTS FOR THE  FIRST TIME SINCE 2003. THAT MADE BRAZIL ABLE TO  EXPORT FROM EVERY PART OF ITS COUNTRY.  <" THEY DONT' HAVE AN INDIVIDUAL QUOTA FOR THEMSELVES. BECAUSE  OF THAT, THEY'RE LIMITED AS FAR AS HOW MUCH PRODUCT THEY CAN  BRING IN WITHOUT AN ADDITIONAL 26 PERCENT TARIFF 46 BECAUSE OF  THAT, SHORT TERM, UNLESS THERE IS A NEW TRADE AGREEMENT, I WOULD  NOT SUSPECT BRAZILIAN NUMBERS TO INCREASE GOING FORWARD UNLESS  SOMETHING CHANGES FROM A TRADE STANDPOINT,"> <"START AT 38 IT'S NOT A HUGE AMOUNT EITHER. WE IMPORTED MASSIVE  AMOUNTS FROM AUSTRALIA A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO - WHAT THE QUOTAS  ARE FOR BRAZILIAN BEEF ARE SO MINISCULE TO ME, IT'S A NON-FACTOR FOR  THE TIME BEING,">50 THERE'S ALSO ADDITIONAL EXPORT POTENTIAL IN CHIA. CHINESE OFFICIALS  ANNOUNCING PLANS LAST YEAR TO LIFE A BAN ON U.S. BEEF IMPORTS - A  PRODUCT CHINA HASN'T IMPORTED SINCE 2003.  <"THE DISCUSSION IS SLOW BUT WE'RE MAKING PROGRESS. WE DID GET  AN OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT FROM THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT THAT THEY  LIFTED THE BAN, BUT NOW, WE HAVE TO FOCUS ON THE EXPORT  PROTOCOLS.,"> MEANING THE U.S. IS YET TO SHIP BEEF TO THE COUNTRY. <"WE HAVE TO AGREE ON THE PROTOCOL. WHAT ARE THE ELGIBLE  PRODUCTS, WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF WE GET ANOTHER CASE OF BSE FOR  EXAMPLE, WOUDL THEY CLOSE HTE MARKET AND THOSE PROCEDURES?  THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH ELGIBLE. THESE ARE ALL THINGS I THINK CAN  BE WORKED OUT BUT ONCE THE PROTOCOL IS ESTABLISHED, THE CHINESE WILL HAVE TO COME OVER AND AUDIT,"> BACK ON THE RANGE, PRODUCERS HOPE WASHINGTON WILL CONTINUE TO  BUILD RELATIONSHIPS THAT HELP EXPAND THE CATTLE TRADE.  <"I CAN JUST DO THE BEST I CAN WITH WHAT I HAVE SOME CONTROL  OVER,"> REPORTING FOR AGDAY, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.  THANKS BETSY.

FREE TRADE AGREEMENT TAKING EFFECT
SPEAKING OF TRADE, A $1 TRILLION FREE TRADE  AGREEMENT JUST TOOK EFFECT. IT'S CALLED THE TRADE FACILITATION AGREEMENT AND  IS DESIGNED TO CUT THROUGH RED TAPE AND HELP  SOLVE PROBLEMS LIKE BORDER DELAYS AND  TRANSPORTATION BOTTLENECKS.  THE DEAL INCLUDES ALL 164 MEMBERS OF THE WORLD  TRADE ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES. IT WAS APPROVED DURING THE LAST ADMINISTRATION.  THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION SAYS IT WILL CUT A  DAY AND A HALF OFF THE TIME NEEDED TO IMPORT  GOODS AND CUT TWO DAYS OFF THE TIME NEED TO  EXPORT PRODUCTS.  WTO'S DIRECTOR GENERAL SAYS ITS THE BIGGEST  REFORM OF GLOBAL TRADE THIS CENTURY. OFFICIALS ALSO SAY THE AGREEMENT WILL CUT THE  COST OF SHIPPING GOODS TO OTHER COUNTRIES BY 14  PERCENT.  USDA ALSO RELEASE IT'S MONTHLY CATTLE ON FEED  REPORT FRIDAY. IT SAYS AS OF FEBRUARY FIRST THERE WERE 10 POINT  8 MILLION HEAD IN THE NATIONS LARGEST FEEDLOTS. THAT'S UP 1 PERCENT FROM 2016. PLACEMENTS JUMPED 11 PERCENT TO JUST UNDER 2  MILLION HEAD (1.98). AND MARKETINGS ALSO GAINING DOUBLE DIGITS--10  PERCENT HIGHER AT ONE POINT 75 MILLION HEAD.<"IT WAS EXACTLY ON TARGET SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THIS TIME LAST YEAR IN 2016. SO CERTAINLY, THE MARKETS HAD A LITTLE BIT OF A REACTION BUT PERHAPS THE LIVE CATTLE WAS A LITTLE BIT OVERSOLD BUT IT BOUNCED BACK. TODAY WE HAD SOME PROFIT TAKING CERTAINLY AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY AND THE FEEDERS, THEY WERE DOWN SHARPLY WITH SOME HEAVY LOSSES THERE. THE CATTLE ACTUALLY CLOSED ALMOST AT THE 1.15 LEVEL. THAT SHOULD BE HELPFUL GOING INTO MONDAY.">

CROP COMMENTS
THE WESTERN CORN BELT IS SEEING QUITE A BIT OF  SNOW.  MIKE HOFFMAN HAS AN UPDATE IN THIS MORNING'S  CROP COMMENTS.  <MIKE HOFFMAN SPEAKS> GOOD MORNING, CLINTON.  CONDITIONS HAVE REALLY CHANGED IN SOUTHEAST  SOUTH DAKOTA! THIS PICTURE OF A FLOWING STREAM AND MILD TEMPS  WAS TAKEN JUST OVER A WEEK AGO. NOW, THE PASTURE IS BLANKETED WITH SEVERAL  INCHES OF SNOW. THIS FARMER SAID ON FRIDAY,  THE AREA RECEIVED 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SOME  WINDS. OTHER AREAS OF SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVED  MORE.  IT'S A SIMILIAR STORY FOR RYAN KOINZAN IN NELIGH,  NEBRASKA.  HE'S FEEDING CATTLE OUT IN THE BLIZZARD.  RYAN SAID THE AREA SAW A STRING OF DAYS IN THE  60S AND EVEN UP INTO 70S LAST WEEK.  AND NOW HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS.    AGDAY - BROUGHT TO YOU BY RESICORE HERBICIDE FOR CORN.  WITH A  UNIQUELY POWERFUL FORMULATION OF PROVEN INGREDIENTS, RESICORE  GIVES YOU EXTRAORDINARY POWER OVER WEEDS. LEARN MORE AT  POWEROVERWEEDS.COM. )

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL FOCUS ON GRAIN  MARKETS AND GET REACTION TO LAST WEEK'S USDA  PRICE AND ACREAGE PREDICTIONS. PLUS MACHINERY PETE. AND LATER WE'LL CHECK IN ON THE FRUIT CROPS OF  MICHIGAN AS GROWERS WORRY A FEBRUARY WARM UP MIGHT BE TOO MUCH HEAT TOO SOON. 

AGRIBUSINESS
DAN O'BRIEN WITH TOP THIRD AG MARKETING, OUR  GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK TODAY. DAN,  LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS USDA OUTLOOK FORUM FROM  LAST WEEK. THEY CAME OUT WITH SOME FRESH  NUMBERS, FRESH DATA, SOME PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR  US, THEY'RE CALLING 90 MILLION ACRES OF CORN AND  88 MILLION ACRES OF SOYBEANS AND 46 MILLION ACRES  ON WHEAT. WHAT WAS YOUR TAKEAWAY FROM ALL OF  THIS?  A COUPLE OF THINGS STOOD OUT TO ME FROM THE  NUMBERS RELEASED THIS MORNING FROM THE CROP  PRODUCTION AND CARRY OUT NUMBERS. IT'S THAT  ESPECIALLY  WITH THE DECLINE IN CORN ACRES WHICH  EVERYONE IS EXPECTING THAT CORN ACRES ARE  MOVING TO BEANS THAT WE WOULD HAVE THOUGHT  THE PRODUCTION WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER  AND THE CARRYOUT WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER  AND GET US TO A MORE WORKABLE STOCKS TO USE  RATIO BUT THE CARRYOUT IS ONLY DOWN ABOUT 105  MILLION BUSHELS. SO, THEY CUT DOWN SOME FEED  AND RESIDUAL USE AND ALSO EXPORTS WERE CUT IN  THAT. I THINK WHAT THIS TELLS YOU IS EVEN WHEN YOU  KIND OF HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF WHAT IS GOING TO  HAPPEN AND WHAT EVENTS WILL TAKE PLACE, THE  OUTCOME OF THAT IS UNCERTAIN. SURE, ABSOLUTELY,  IT'S A SIMILIAR KSTORY WITH SOYBEANS, RIGHT? THEY  MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS THERE WE WERE NOT  EXPECTING. YES, SO WE LOOK AT BEANS AND I THINK  THE BIG STORY THERE IS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A LOT  OF ACRES MOVE OVER TO BEANS, 4 MILLION OR SO.  THAT IS GOING TO DRIVE THE CARRYOUT NUMBERS  HIGHER, IT WILL INCREASE PRODUCTION BUT BECAUSE  THEY DROPPED THE YIELD TO A MORE NORMAL 48  BUSHELS PER ACRE VERSUS LAST YEAR'S 52.1 OR SO,  THAT REALLY REDUCED THE OUTPUT. THE CARRYOUTS  HAVE GONE FROM 420 MILLION BUSHELS TO 420  BUSHELS. SO AGAIN, WE DIDN'T GET THE STORY WE  WERE EXPECTING, THEY MAY EVENTUALLY PAN OUT  THAT WAY BUT IT WAS A LITTLE BIT THOUGHT  PROVOKING TO SEE THINGS STAY THE SAME. YOU  KNOW, THIS REMINDS ME OF OTHER EVENTS PEOPLE  WERE PLANNING ON AND COUNTING ON HAPPENING  AND THE EXPERTS WERE GOING TO HAVE A REAL GOOD  HANDLE ON THINGS AND THIS FALL WAS A PERFECT  EXAMPLE. ON ELECTION NIGHT, EVERYONE EXPECTED  DONALD TRUMP TO GET SOUNDLY BEATEN AND THAT  DIDN'T TURN OUT TO BE TRUE. PEOPLE WOULD SAY YOU  CAN GET THAT WRONG. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, I  THOUGHT, WAS MORE OF THE FINANCIAL TALKING WERE  CERTAIN IF DONALD TRUMP WON, THE STOCK MARKET  WAS GOING IN THE TANK. NOW, IT DROPPED ABOUT 900  POINTS AS THE RETURNS STARTED COMING IN BUT  SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT THE  MARKET DECIDED EVERYONE WAS WRONG AND WE'RE  SITTING 3,000 POINTS AND CHANGE HIGHER. WHAT THAT  TELLS ME IS EVEN THOUGH YOU KNOW THE EVENT  THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN, YOU CAN'T COUNT ON THE  MARKET REACTING THE WAY IT'S SUPPOSED TO IN  YOUR VIEW. YEAH, IT'S A LONG GROWING SEASON.  APPRECIATE THE INSIGHTS. WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE  AGDAY IN JUST A MINUTE. 

WEATHER
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE WELL  IF THE RAINFALL LAST WEEK OR SO SOME PLACES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE  SOUTHERN COAST GOT SOME OTHER SOME DECENT AMOUNT IN PLACES  AS YOU CAN SEE THERE FROM THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA BACK INTO  TEXAS AND SOME OTHER AMOUNT SHOWING UP IN PARTS OF THE  NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BACK IN THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS ESPECIALLY  THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THEN YOU HAVE SOME  POCKETS OUT IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NORTHWEST BUT CALIFORNIA  CONTINUES TO BE THE A BIG STORY AS WE SAW ALL OF THAT OUR RAIN AND  SNOW. LAST WEEK AND THESE ARE SOME OF THE AMOUNT NOW THESE ARE RADAR ESTIMATED NATE ALWAYS DO THE BEST JOB IN SOME  MOUNTAINOUS REGION SO I'LL GIVE YOU THAT NONETHELESS A LOT OF  MOISTURE FELL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA HERE'S A JET STREAM  AS WE START THE WEEK WE STILL HAVE THE TROUGH IN THE WEST A LITTLE  BIT OF A RIDGE STILL IN THE EAST. ALTHOUGH IT'S MORE ZONAL AS YOU CAN SEE THERE. THE TROUGH COMING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES  IS YOU'LL SEE BY WEDNESDAY THAT STARTS TO BRING IN WELL BUT A COLD  AIR BEHIND IT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN AND THEN AS WE HEAD  THROUGH THE WEEK YOU'LL NOTICE LITTLE PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUING  THE KIND OF FEED THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND  KEEPING THAT TROUGH FARTHER TO THE EAST. I THINK WE'RE GOING INTO A  TRANSITION PERIOD HERE WHERE WE EVENTUALLY GET THAT TROUGH TO DIG  INTO THE EAST AND STAY THERE. AND THAT MAY HAPPEN BY THE  FOLLOWING WEEK YOU KNOW LIKE TEN DAYS FROM NOW BUT I WANT TO  WAIT AND SEE ON THE CAUSE WE'RE KIND OF IN A TRANSITION THE WAY IT  LOOKS. BUT FOR THIS WEEK THEN I'M STILL GOING ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE  EASTERN SEABOARD AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO DOWN IN THE  SOUTHEAST TEXAS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO BELOW  NORMAL. THEN YOU CAN SEE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF. OF THE PLAINS AND  THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ROCKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL IN BETWEEN  PRECIPITATION FOR THIS COMING WEEK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE GREAT  LAKES MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND DOWN THROUGH THE APPELLATIONS  INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BELOW NORMAL FROM A SOUTH  DAKOTA DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BACK INTO THE END OF THE  SOUTHWEST AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY  WASHINGTON OREGON AND EXCUSE ME AND IDAHO LET'S GO OUT ALL BY  FAR THE LESSER NINETY DAY OUTLOOK WILL SPLIT UP THE TEMPTERS FOR EACH OF THE NEXT THREE MONTHS MARCH TEMPERATURES GOING TO GO  BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE  GREAT LAKES MIGHT END UP PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT IT'LL BE CLOSER  MAYBE JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THEN YOU CAN SEE THE NORTHERN PLAINS  NORTHERN ROCKIES BELOW NORMAL ALL UP BUT MUCH OF TEXAS  ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS AND THROUGH THE  SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ABOVE  NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MARCH NOW WE'RE GOING TO EXPAND  THAT IN APRIL TAKE IT ALL THE WAY UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR THE  WARMER THAN NORMAL AREAS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE GREAT LAKES BELOW  NORMAL THEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND I  TAKE AWAY THE A BELOW NORMAL COMPLETELY BY MAY WITH MUCH OF  THE COUNTRY ESPECIALLY THE ENDING UP ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION  OVER THE NEXT NINETY DAYS THAT THIS IS ALWAYS A TOUGH CALL IN THE  SPRING BUT OF GOING ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI  VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE GREAT LAKES ABOVE NORMAL  OUT WEST AND THEN ALSO NEW MEXICO IN SOME OF THE SURROUNDING  AREAS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL THAT 'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY  NOW LET 'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS FIRST OF ALL FRESNO  CALIFORNIA MOSTLY CLOUDY AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS TODAY HIGH  TEMPERATURE OF FIFTY EIGHT CARTHAGE MISSOURI CLOUDY AND MILD TIMES OF RAIN HIGH AROUND SIXTY AND FINALLY CHARLESTON SOUTH  CAROLINA SOME MORNING FOG BUT THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY HIGH  A WARM

TEASE
AFTER THE BREAK, MACHINERY PETE JOINS US TO TALK  ABOUT INNOVATION ON THE FARM INCLUDING SOME  CREATIVE SOLUTIONS ENGINEERED BY FARMERS. AND LATER MICHIGAN FRUIT GROWERS ARE HOPING THE EARLY WARM WEATHER DOESN'T SPELL DISASTER  FOR THIS YEAR'S HARVEST.

MACHINERY PETE
MACHINERY PETE SEES PLENTY OF IMPRESSIVE  MACHINERY AS HE TRAVELS THE COUNTRY.  AND THAT OFTEN INCLUDES SOME HOME-MADE  SOLUTIONS FROM CREATIVE FARMERS. GREG. STAY TUNED FOLKS COMING UP WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT SOME COOL  FARM MACHINERY INOVATION'S WHAT I WOULD FALL TO AS I TRAVEL THROUGHOUT NORTH AMERICA HERE I  CAN TELL YOU THE SPIRIT OF INNOVATION IN AGRICULTURE PARTICULARLY WITH  MACHINERY IS ALIVE AND WELL AND THE ROOTS ARE VERY DEEP. IT WAS  DRIVEN HOME RECENTLY ON TWITTER LAST WEEK. SOME LISA ME THIS  PICTURE OF A SELF PROPELLED FORAGE WAGON. THIS WAS MADE OUT  AROUND NEW HOLLAND PENNSYLVANIA POSTED THE PICTURE ON TWITTER  BOY GOT A TON OF REACTION PEOPLE RETWEETING IT AND IT BADE ME  THINK OF A YOUTUBE VIDEO I POSTED A NUMBER YEARS AGO AND HERE  'S A PICTURE. IT WAS FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BACK IN NINETEEN FIFTY  SEVEN THREE BROTHERS NEEDED SOMETHING BETTER SO IT TOOK THREE FARMALL F THIRTY 'S AND KIND OF MADE THEMSELVES A SPECIALIZED FOUR  ROW COMBINE TO PUT TWO TWO RULE PICKERS ON THE FRONT OF THIS THING  AND THE JOHN DEERE NUMBER SIX SHELLER ON THE BACK THEY HAD  THEMSELVES A FOUR ROW COMBINE NOW THESE INNOVATIONS CAN HAVE  BUSINESS APPLICATIONS AND SOMETIMES THEY CAN ALSO JUST BE FOR  FUN. NOW AGAIN LAST WEEK ON TWITTER IN RAN ACROSS OF THIS PICTURE  OF A PRETTY COOL SELF MADE THING CAME OUT OF MICHIGAN FOR MOVING  SNOW. A LITTLE MINI JOHN DEERE FOUR WHEEL DRIVE TRACTOR. I THINK THE  NEIGHBORS WOULD BE TALKING IF YOU'RE USING THIS TO CLEAN THE  DRIVEWAY AND ALSO AGAIN OUT OF MICHIGAN RECENTLY RAN ACROSS A  GENTLEMAN THAT TAKES OLD FARM EQUIPMENT AND MAKES THIS COOL  PLAYGROUND EQUIPMENT SO AGAIN THE SPIRIT OF INNOVATION WHEN IT  COMES TO MACHINERY IT'S ALIVE AND WELL.  IMPRESSIVE! THANKS GREG.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL TALK ABOUT THE  FEBRUARY WARM UP AND WHY SOME NORTHERN FRUIT  GROWERS ARE WORRIED ALREADY.

IN THE COUNTRY
THE FEBRUARY WARM UP HAS OFFERED SOME  WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE STRESS OF WINTER. BUT IT ALSO HAS FRUIT GROWERS CONCERNED THINGS  GROWERS IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THEY ARE  CONCERNED STONE FRUIT COULD BE IMPACTED THE  MOST BY WARMER WEATHER. THE CROP COULD COME  OUT OF DORMANCY AND BUD EARLY. THEN, A LATER  SPRING FREEZE COULD REALLY HURT.  PRODUCERS SAY THEY HAD A FAIRLY MILD FALL AND WINTER WITH LITTLE SNOWFALL- WHICH ISN'T IDEAL  FOR CHILLING HOURS. TEMPERATURES NEARED THE  70S LAST WEEK.<"WE SAY YOU HAVE TO GET THROUGH MOTHERS DAY BEFORE YOU'RE  HOME FREE AWAY FROM ANY HARD FREEZES THAT COULD POTENTIALLY  WIPE YOU OUT,"><"I THINK THERE COULD BE DAMAGE AT 10 DEGREES. IT CAN SNOW AT  33 OR 32 DEGREES. THE SNOW ISN'T AS SIGNIFICANT. THE MOST  SIGNICANT PART IS HOW RAPIDLY IT GETS COLD,"> TEICHMAN LOST 2-3RDS OF HIS PEACH TREES IN 2012  WHEN TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S IN MARCH,  THEN DROPPED DRASTICALLY, KILLING THE CROP. THIS  IS THE FIRST SEASON HE EXPECTS A PEACH CROP ON  HIS NEW TREES.  WE'LL HAVE A FULL STORY TUESDAY ON AGDAY. 

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE  GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN AND ALL OF US HERE AT AGDAY, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS HAVE A GREAT DAY. 

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