AgDay Daily Recap -February 4, 2015

February 4, 2015 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
FEBRUARY 4, 2015

OPEN HEADLINES:
TODAY ON AGDAY - LET THE BUDGET BATTLE BEGIN IN WASHINGTON. IN THE GOLDEN STATE FARMERS FACE ANOTHER PARCHED YEAR FOR THIRSTY CROPS. IN AGRIBUSINESS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF CHEAPER MONEY...WITH AS MUCH AS SOME OF THESE OPERATIONS USE I THINK IT'S PRUDENT TO START LOCKING IN FUEL PRICES FOR AS MUCH AS A YEAR TO TWO YEARS OUT. A BIG WIN FOR POTATO GROWERS...AND A COLA MAKER SAYS IT CAN SELL EVEN BETTER MILK! AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO...
AG BUDGET:
THE PRESIDENT'S BUDGET ALSO CALLS FOR A CONSOLIDATION OF FOOD SAFETY OVERSIGHT. AS PROPOSED, FOOD INSPECTIONS, RECALLS, AND OTHER FOOD SAFETY MATTERS WILL NO LONGER BE SPLIT BETWEEN USDA AND FDA. IT WOULD FALL UNDER ONE NEW AGENCY.
WHEAT CONDITIONS:
THE WINTER WHEAT CROP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS DECLINED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FOUR WEEKS. DURING THE WINTER MONTHS USDA POSTS MONTHLY CROP PROGRESS REPORTS ON WHEAT. IN KANSAS 46-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT, DOWN THREE POINTS FROM A MONTH AGO. ON THE OTHER END, 13-PERCENT IS POOR TO VERY POOR, A FOUR POINT SLIP DOWNWARD. IN OKLAHOMA, 13-PERCENT IS POOR-VERY POOR. ONE PERCENTAGE POINT DECLINE 41 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT…THE TEXAS WHEAT CROP IMPROVED A BIT. 16-PERCENT IS POOR TO VERY POOR. 42-PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT…
GAS PRICES:
AFTER A NICE 17 WEEK SLIDE AT THE PUMP, GASOLINE PRICES ARE ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING HIGHER. THE ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION SAYS MONDAY'S GAS PRICES PUSHED HIGHER BY TWO CENTS A GALLON. THE NATIONAL AVERAGE PRICE FOR GASOLINE IS TWO-OH-SIX-A GALLON. CRUDE OIL PRICES WERE DOWN 143 TRADING DAYS. THAT'S THE LONGEST PRICE DECLINE IN 15 YEARS.
TEASE:
INTEREST RATES APPEAR TO BE STAYING PUT FOR NOW. ARE YOU TAKING FULL ADVANTAGE OF THOSE LOWER RATES? WE'LL DISCUSS IN THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS. LATER GOOD NEWS FOR POTATO GROWERS WHO'VE BEEN LEFT OUT OF GOVERNMENT FOOD PROGRAMS…
ANALYSIS INTRO:
FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN JANET YELLEN SAYS THE CENTRAL BANK WILL NOT BE HIKING INTEREST RATES ANY TIME SOON. AND EVEN WHEN IT DOES RAISE THEM, YELLEN SAYS BORROWING COSTS WILL REMAIN LOW FOR AN UN-SPECIFIED AMOUNT OF TIME. WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE FARMERS WHO ARE NO STRANGER TO BORROWING MONEY TO PAY OPERATING COSTS? FARM DIRECTOR AL PELL TAKES A CLOSER LOOK.
ANALYSIS:
OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK JIM BOWER FROM BOWER TRADING JIM ONE OF THE THINGS WE NEED TO WORRY ABOUT OR AT LEAST I'M NOT WORRYING ABOUT NOW BECAUSE GAS PRICES ARE DOWN BUT THEN IF I WAS A PRODUCER YOU GOT TO FIGURE OUT A WAY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THOSE THINGS.  WELL THIS IS NOT AN EASY MARKET TO CALL THERE'S A LOT OF PROFESSIONAL ANALYST WHO KNOW A LOT MORE ABOUT ENERGY THAN I DO THAT THINK ENERGY PRICES ARE GOING TO GO LOWER BUT WHEN I PASS THAT TRUCK STOP AND I SEE THAT 1.97 AND IN SOME CASE I'VE I KNOW IN OTHER AREAS IT'S DOWN TO LIKE A 1.65 I THINK IT'S PROBABLY TIME TO START REALLY LOOKING INTO USAGE AND COVERING THE NEEDS FOR YOUR FUEL PARTICULARLY GASOLINE AND MAYBE GO A YEAR AND A HALF TO TWO YEARS OUT AND HEDGE IT ON THE BOARD ON THE REBOUND CONTRACT SO THAT WOULD BE ONE THING GRANTED WE MIGHT DRIFT A LITTLE LOWER BUT I DON'T THINK A WHOLE LOT LOWER AND I COULD MAKE A CASE FOR GASOLINE EVENTUALLY GOING BACK UP TOWARDS 3 TO 4 DOLLARS PRETTY EASILY DOWN THE ROAD THE CHEAP GASOLINE PRICES WILL NOT AND DEISEL PRICES WILL NOT LAST FOREVER FORTUNATELY FOR A LOT OF OUR CLIENTELE THEY HAVE ON FARM STORAGE FOR THE DEISEL AND OF COURSE IT STORES RELATIVELY WELL SO THEY CAN MAKE IF THEY CAN COVER IT IN THE CASH MARKETS AND THEY CAN GET ACCESS TO IT AND GET IT COVERED CONTRACTUALLY PROBABLY DO THE DEISEL WITH THE LOCAL SUPPLIER IF THEY CAN'T GET IT COVERED COME BACK TO US AND WE'LL LOOK AT EITHER THE CRUDE OIL CONTRACTS OR THE GASOLINE CONTRACTS TO HELP COVER POSITIONS AS FAR AS FUEL IN DEISEL BUT WITH THIS BIG A DROP WITH AS MUCH AS SOME OF THESE OPERATIONS USE I THINK IT'S PRUDENT TO START LOCKING IN FUEL PRICES FOR AS MUCH AS A YEAR TO TWO YEARS OUT. NOW'S THE TIME WE NEED TO START LOCKING YOUR PRICES FOR THIS NEXT YEAR SO YOU KNOW WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO GET AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT IN THE FUEL SITUATION.>> YES AND ALSO APPLIES TO INTEREST RATES TOO THE OPERATING LOANS THAT YOU HAVE WE'VE GOT INTEREST RATES NOW AT THE LOWEST LEVEL IN HISTORY IN OUR LIFETIME SO MAYBE THEY CAN DIP A LITTEL LOWER BUT THERE ONCE THEY GO TO NEGATIVE HOW MUCH LOWER CAN YOU GO SO FROM AN END USER OR SOMEBODY THAT'S PLANNING TO BUY A RANCH OR A FARM DOWN THE ROAD THAT MIGHT WANT TO PROTECT COVER THAT THROUGH THE SHORTING OF THE BONDS WHICH THEY'VE GOT TO HAVE MARGIN MONEY FOR BUT AGAIN WITH INTEREST RATES AT OR NEAR THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW I THINK IT'S PRUDENT TO AT LEAST LOOK AT THE OPPORTUNITY TO HEDGE OFF SOME INPUT COSTS FOR MONEY. >> OPPORTUNITIES TO MAKE MONEY JIM BOWER OUR GUEST HERE AT AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF WINTER, IS THE WORST BEHIND US OR ARE WE JUST GETTING STARTED? I WOULD SAY FOR THE EASTERN CORN BELT AND FOR THE NORTHEAST, NO. THE WORST IS NOT BEHIND YOU. IT'S AT LEAST GOING TO BE AS BAD AND IN SOME PLACES, WORST. FARTHER WEST, YOU KIND OF BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH IN THE PLAINS STATES AND THAT'S LIKELY TO CONTINUE. LET'S CHECK OUT THE MAPS TODAY. WE HAVE THE MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ON THE WEATHER MAP TODAY. ONE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE WETTEST SYSTEM. THAT'S GENERALLY GOING TO BE A RAIN MAKER IN THE SOUTHEAST. THEN WE HAVE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS CAUSING ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THEM. YOU CAN SEE THE FIRST ONE IN THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL ZIP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SECOND ONE REALLY MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. LATER ON TODAY FROM MISSOURI ON UP INTO OHIO, WE'LL BE SEEING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW. THIS WON'T LAST LONG. THIS WON'T PUT DOWN A BUNCH OF SNOW, BUT NONETHELESS SOME LIGHT SNOW ON TOP OF THE SNOW LOTS OF THOSE FOLKS HAVE ALREADY HAD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AGAIN. THIS IS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. YOU CAN SEE THE STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOTS OF RAIN THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY THE STATE OF FLORIDA…THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT EVEN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. TWO OLD FRONTS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST…THIS IS A COLD BLAST OF AIR. JUST LIKE THIS WHOLE WINTER, WE CONTINUE TO SEE IT COME QUICKLY THROUGH. THEN IT DOESN'T LAST TOO LONG AFTER THAT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY COMING. THAT WILL SPREAD WILDER AIR AGAIN INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SNOW MAKER FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES. AS WE ADD ON THE NEXT 36 HOURS, YOU CAN SEE THOSE TWO STREAKS COMBINE OVER NEW ENGLAND. NONE OF THAT IS VERY HEAVY. IT'S FAIRLY HEAVY IN PARTS OF FLORIDA AND FAIRLY HEAVY WITH THAT NEXT SYSTEM IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THAT'S SOME GOOD NEWS AGAIN. THAT WILL BE UP THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON. SNOWFALL ESTIMATES THE PAST 24 HOURS: FAIRLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS. WE WILL ADD ON THE NEXT 36 AND THOSE STREAKS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. YOU CAN SEE FROM NEW ENGLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET SNOW. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE TEENS TO THE NORTH AND FIFTIES BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE GULF COAST. LOOK AT THE LOWS TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE SOME NEGATIVE NUMBERS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR TOMORROW MORNING. WE COULD SEE FORTIES DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. FOR HIGHS TOMORROW, WE COULD SEE WARMER AIR COMING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS AGAIN. IT'S STILL VERY COLD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOTS OF TEENS. THERE'S THE JET STREAM. YOU CAN SEE MULTIPLE LITTLE RIPPLES BRINGING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR WITH IT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE FLOW COMING STRAIGHT ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE BATTLE GROUNDS OF PLAINS; IT STAYS VERY COLD IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GREAT LAKES. IT STAYS WARM OUT WEST BUT YOU FOLKS IN THE PLAINS JUST KEEP GOING BACK AND FORTH. THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. WE HEAD TO MILES CITY, MONTANA. FIRST OF ALL, IT'S FAIRLY SUNNY AND RATHER COLD, WITH A HIGH OF 23 DEGREES. JACKSON, MISSISSIPPI IS CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGH IS 53. FINALLY, HARTFORD, CT IS MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW. THE HIGH IS AROUND 35.
WHITE POTATOES:
GOOD NEWS FOR GROWERS OF WHITE POTATOES. IT APPEARS SPUDS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE INCLUDED IN THE LIST OF ALLOWABLE FOODS IN THE WOMEN, INFANTS AND CHILDREN PROGRAM. AS WE HAVE REPORTED OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, WHITE POTATOES WERE OFF LIMITS TO "WIC" RECIPIENTS. AT THE REQUEST OF USDA, THE INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE TOOK ANOTHER LOOK AT THE HEALTH VALUE OF WHITE POTATOES. THE I-O-M HAS NOW REVERSED ITS OPINION. I-O-M WILL SEND ITS POSITIVE RECOMMENDATION TO THE AG DEPARTMENT WHICH OVERSEES THE 'WIC' PROGRAM. WHILE FRESH, FROZEN OR CANNED POTATOES ARE OKAY, I-O-M SAYS "NO" TO CHIPS AND FRIES. THE NATIONAL POTATO COUNCIL IS THRILLED WITH THE CHANGE.
ITC FAIRLIFE MILK:
MILK IS AVAILABLE IN MANY OPTIONS AT YOUR GROCERY STORE - WHOLE MILK, TWO PERCENT, FAT-FREE, CHOCOLATE, EVEN NON-DAIRY MILK. THE LIST SEEMS ENDLESS. NOW, THERE'S A NEW ONE. IT'S "PREMIUM" MILK. THE FOLKS AT COCA-COLA ARE BETTING CONSUMERS ARE WILLING TO PAY MORE FOR MILK IF IT HAS MORE PROTEIN AND LESS SUGAR. AS JOHN MONE REPORTS PEOPLE ALREADY BUY PREMIUM WATER, JUICE AND COFFEE, SO WHY 'NOT' MILK?
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close