AgDay Daily Recap -February 5, 2015

February 5, 2015 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
FEBRUARY 5, 2015

OPEN HEADLINES:
TODAY ON AGDAY - WHO REGULATES WATER IN THIS COUNTRY? THE DEBATE RAGES ON.
THE NATION'S CATTLE PRODUCERS GATHER IN TEXAS. CLINTON GRIFFITHS IS ON ASSIGNMENT. IN AGRIBUSINESS - WHERE ARE CATTLE MARKETS HEADED. AS ENERGY PRICES FALL, SOME SCHOOLS SEE THE BENEFITS...AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO.
CATTLEMEN’S:
THE 2015 CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION IS NOW OFFICIALLY UNDERWAY. OPENING CEREMONIES WERE HELD YESTERDAY IN SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS. THIS CONVENTION, ALONG WITH THE N-C-B-A TRADE SHOW, IS EXPECTED TO DRAW SEVEN THOUSAND PEOPLE DURING THE THREE DAY AFFAIR. TRADE GROUPS HOLD THEIR ANNUAL MEETINGS AT THIS CONVENTION TO SET PUBLIC POLICY FOR THE ORGANIZATIONS.
CLINTON CHECKOFF:
THERE'S NO SHORTAGE OF TOPICS FOR CONVENTION GOERS. MUCH OF IT FOCUSES ON GOVERNMENT ACTION - OR IN-ACTION…ONE OF THE BIGGEST ISSUES IS THE BEEF CHECK-OFF PROGRAM. AS YOU MAY REMEMBER AG SECRETARY TOM VILSACK THREATENED TO CREATE A SECOND BEEF CHECKOFF. CLINTON GRIFFITHS HAS BEEN LOOKING INTO THE ISSUE. HE JOINS US FROM SAN ANTONIO, CLINTON.
BEEF CHECKOFF:
A NEW SURVEY - CONDUCTED BY THE BEEF CHECKOFF - SAYS MOST PRODUCERS SUPPORT THE PROGRAM. ABOUT ELEVEN PERCENT SAY THEY'RE AGAINST IT. ASPEN MEDIA AND MARKET RESEARCH CONDUCTED THE SURVEY DURING THE HOLIDAYS. 12-HUNDRED PRODUCERS WERE QUESTIONED. THE RESULTS SHOW ABOUT 80-PERCENT OF THE DAIRY AND BEEF PRODUCERS SURVEYED SAY THE CHECKOFF HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A POSITIVE TREND IN BEEF DEMAND. 72-PERCENT SAY IT HELPS CONTRIBUTE TO PROFITABILITY ON THEIR OPERATIONS. ABOUT TWO-THIRDS SAY THE PROGRAM IS WELL MANAGED.
TEASE:
AS RANCHERS RE-BUILD THEIR HERDS, WHERE ARE PRICES HEADED? STILL TO COME, WE'LL CONTINUE OUR CONVERSATION ABOUT CATTLE MARKETS. WE'LL ALSO HAVE OUR DAILY STOP AT THE CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE TO CHECK ON GRAIN PRICES.
CME REPORT:
IN AGRIBUSINESS TODAY - THE GRAIN MARKETS FLASHED A LOT OF RED AT THE CLOSE WEDNESDAY. LET'S HEAD TO THE C-M-E FLOOR FOR AN UPDATE.
ANALYSIS:
HERE AT OUR AGRIBUSINESS DESK WE'RE TALKING TO CHIP NELLINGER OF BLUE REEF AGRIMARKETING CHIP ONE OF THE THINGS I'D LIKE TO TALK YOU A LITTLE BIT ABOUT IS THE CATTLE ON WHAT'S HAPPENING TO IT BOY JUST BEEN UP AND DOWN AND UP AND DOWN IN TERM OF MARKETS AND WHENEVER YOU GO BUY AND SELL BUT THEN WHERE ARE WE GOING TO GO?  WELL THAT'S THE THAT'S THE 64 MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION.  THAT'S WHY I ASKED.  WE'VE HAD A HISTORIC BULL MOVE IN THE CATTLE MARKET PROBABLY AS BIG A BULL MARKET AS ANY MARKET ARGUABLY IN HISTORY AND THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF REASONS FOR THAT PRETTY WELL PUBLICIZED JUST YOU KNOW RECORD SMALL CATTLE HERD WE ALSO HAVE EXCELLENT DEMAND BOXED BEEF PRICES HAVE BEEN STRONG OUR EXPORTS HAVE BEEN PHENOMENAL THE QUESTION IS CAN THAT CONTINUE SO EVENTUALLY SLOWLY BUT SURELY WE'RE GOING EVENTUALLY REBUILD THIS CATTLE HERD THERE'S. THAT TAKES A WHILE.  IT TAKES AWHILE AND I THINK WE'VE ALREADY STARTED INTO THAT TO SOME EXTENT BUT THAT'S A THREE OR FOUR YEAR PROCESS WE'RE PROBABLY EARLY ON INTO THAT THE OTHER ISSUE HERE IS THAT WE'VE SEEN A LOT OF OUTSIDE MARKET FLUCTUATION CURRENCY MOVES THAT HAVE JUST BEEN WILDLY VOLATILE OUR DOLLAR RALLYING SO IF LONGER TERM THIS STRONG DOLLAR START GETTING INTO OUR EXPORT MARKET OR WE CONTINUE AND BUILD MORE STEAM ON THIS DEFLATIONARY TALK WORLDWIDE I'M NOT SO SURE IF BOXED BEEF PRICES CAN HOLD UP AT THE DEMAND IS GOING TO BE THER AND THE CASH MARKET HAVE REALLY HELD THE FUTURES MARKETS TOGETHER VERY WELL YOU KNOW WE'VE TRADED YOU KNOW FOR THE MOST PART 160 DOLLAR CATTLE GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE DOLLARS ON EITHER SIDE FOR MONTHS NOW. AND MOST OF THEM ARE HAPPY WITH THAT GO AHEAD. ABSOLUTELY BEEN MAKING REALLY GOOD MONEY BUT GOING FORWARD BOY THERE'S SOME SIGNS THAT THAT COULD CONTINUE TO OR START TO SLIP A LITTLE BIT AND WE'VE SEEN JUST IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO HISTORIC VOLATILITY SIX DOLLAR RANGES IN LIVE CATTLE EIGHT OR NINE DOLLAR RANGES IN FEEDER CATTLE THAT SHOULD BE SENDING US A SIGN THAT HEY THERE IS SOME MAJOR RISK HERE THE FUNDS ARE STILL LONG THEY'VE GOTTEN OUT OF SOME OF THEIR LONG POSITION BUT IF OUTSIDE MARKET INFLUENCES THE DOLLAR DEFLATIONARY FEARS A BREAK IN THE STOCK MARKET WEAKENING DEMAND ON THE CATTLE SIDE IF ANY OF THOSE CAUSE THE FUNDS TO CONTINUE TO LIQUIDATE WE'VE SEEN IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO JUST WHAT THAT DOWNSIDE COULD BE IT'S VERY SCARY SO YOU KNOW AGAIN I THINK THAT PRODUCERS NEED TO TAKE A MORE DEFENSIVE STANCE GOING FORWARD WE'RE GOING TO RALLY THE VOLATILITIES GOING TO BE THERE OBVIOUSLY BUT WE NEED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RALLIES AND PROTECT THOSE BREAK EVENS AND BOTTOM LINES BECAUSE THE DOWNSIDE COULD BE FRIGHTENING IF THE FUND DEICED WE'RE DONE WITH THE CATTLE MARKET WE WANT OUT AND WE WANT TO GET SHORT. THE KEY IS BE DEFENSIVE.  DEFENSIVE IN THE CATTLE FOR SURE…OKAY CHIP NELLINGER OUR GUEST HERE AT AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT.
TEASE:
IT'S GETTING MORE EXPENSIVE TO EAT AT A POPULAR BURRITO MAKER. DETAILS JUST AHEAD…
NEW ZEALAND MEAT EXPORT:
EVEN THOUGH GROUND BEEF PRICES REMAIN ABOVE FOUR DOLLARS A POUND, AMERICANS STILL LOVE THEIR HAMBURGERS. AND THAT DEMAND IS HELPING NEW ZEALAND DAIRY PRODUCERS WHO ARE STRUGGLING WITH WEAK PRICES. ACCORDING TO A REPORT IN REUTERS NEW ZEALAND DAIRY PRICES HAVE BEEN WEAK SO DAIRYMEN HAVE BEEN CUTTING BACK ON MILK PRODUCTION. TO OFFSET THOSE LOSSES, SOME PRODUCERS ARE SENDING THEIR OLDER DAIRY COWS TO SLAUGHTER WHERE THEY EARN GOOD MONEY. A NEW ZEALAND BEEF GROUP SAYS BEEF SHIPMENTS TO THE U-S IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS OF 2014 WERE UP 14-PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AL PELL AND CLINTON GRIFFITHS, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

 

 

 

 

 

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