AgDay Daily Recap -Jan. 13, 2016

January 13, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JAN. 13, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -USDA UNLEASHES A FLURRY OF GRAIN REPORTS. WHERE DO PRODUCTION TOTALS STAND?
"ACROSS THE BOARD THERE CORN AND SOYBEANS THEY CAME IN LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.”
WINTER WHEAT WONDER-SEEDINGS PENCIL MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
AND THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU FEDERATION ELECTS ITS NEW LEADER.
IN AGRIBUSINESS: GUEST DUSTIN JOHNSON OF AGYIELD HELPS ANALYZE THE GLOBAL WHEAT OUTLOOK.
 "YOU KNOW MARKETS ARE LIKE A PENDULUM AND I THINK WHEAT IS ONE OF THE BEST ONES TO SEE THAT SNAP BACK." AND THE WHITE HOUSE FOCUSES ITS ATTENTION ON 'A BIG CHEESE.' 
GRAIN CROPS SHRINKS AND WINTER WHEAT SEEDING SEES REDUCTION:
GOOD MORNING I'M BETSY JIBBEN. CLINTON WILL JOIN US IN A FEW MINUTES.
THE BIG 2015 GRAIN CROP SHRUNK AND THE WINTER WHEAT CROP SAW A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SEEDINGS. THOSE TWO HEADLINES TOP OUR SHOW THIS MORNING. THE AG DEPARTMENT RELEASED SEVERAL KEY GRAIN REPORTS TUESDAY WHICH OFTEN SET THE TONE FOR THE MARKET FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
THE AG DEPARTMENT LOWERED THE FINAL CORN PRODUCTION TALLY SLIGHTLY. IT COMES IN AT 13-POINT-SIX BILLION BUSHELS. THE AVERAGE NATIONAL YIELD FOR CORN IS 168-POINT-FOUR BUSHELS. THAT'S DOWN NEARLY A FULL BUSHEL FROM THE NOVEMBER FORECAST. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION IS ALSO DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM NOVEMBER ESTIMATES. BUT USDA SAYS IT'S STILL A RECORD CROP. IT NOW COMES IN AT THREE-POINTNINE BILLION BUSHELS, DOWN ONE PERCENT.
THE AVERAGE YIELD IS 48 BUSHELS TO THE ACRE, DOWN ONE-THIRD OF AN ACRE.
GRAIN STOCKS REPORT:
IN THE GRAIN STOCKS REPORT, USDA SHOWS AS OF DECEMBER FIRST, CORN STOCKS CAME IN AT 11-POINT-TWO BILLION BUSHELS. THAT'S SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN LAST YEAR EVEN THOUGH THE U.S. PRODUCED A SMALLER CROP IN 2015. SOYBEAN STOCKS ARE LARGER -UP ABOUT SEVEN PERCENT. THE TALLY IS TWOPOINT SEVEN BILLION BUSHELS. THE CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION NUMBERS -ALONG WITH THE STOCKS NUMBER -CAME IN LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS TRIGGERED A BULLISH REACTION...SAYS PROFARMER EDITOR BRIAN GRETE.


SORGHUM PRODUCTION GROWS:
AS WE REPORTED, SORGHUM PRODUCTION SAW A BIG LEAP IN 2015. THE AG DEPARTMENT PUTS HARVESTED ACRES AT SEVEN-POINT-EIGHT MILLION ACRES.
THAT'S A 23-PERCENT INCREASE FROM 2014. THE AVERAGE YIELD ESTIMATE WAS CUT, NOW COMING IN AT 76 BUSHELS AN ACRE. THE AG DEPARTMENT SAYS THAT'S A RECORD FOR U-S SORGHUM GROWERS.
USDA SEEDING ESTIMATES LESS WINTER WHEAT ACRES THAN ANALYSTS:
PRE-REPORT WHEAT SEEDINGS ESTIMATES ARE WAY-OFF FROM WHAT USDA IS FORECASTING.
USDA IS EXPECTING 36 AND A HALF MILLION ACRES. ANALYSTS EXPECTED THREE MILLION ACRES MORE! USDA'S ESTIMATE IS A SEVEN PERCENT DECLINE FROM LAST YEARS WINTER WHEAT CROP. AND 14-PERCENT LOWER THAN TWO YEARS AGO.
LOOKING AT SOME KEY STATES -KANSAS FARMERS PLANTED 700-THOUSAND FEWER WHEAT ACRES. IT'S NOW ESTIMATING EIGHT-AND A-HALF MILLION WINTER WHEAT ACRES. THAT'S ABOUT AN EIGHT PERCENT DROP. TEXAS -700 THOUSAND FEWER WHEAT ACRES THIS SEASON. OKLAHOMA -400 THOUSAND FEWER ACRES.
CROP WATCH:
NOW LET'S CHECK IN WITH MIKE HOFFMAN FOR THIS MORNING'S CROPWATCH.
MIKE. LET'S START OFF CROPWATCH IN CLINTON, MAINE. JENNI-TILTON FLOOD SENT US THIS PICTURE OF HER DAIRY CATTLE ENJOYING 'BRUNCH' FROM THE BARN. FUN FACT-HER LOCATION IS CONSIDERED 'MAINE'S DAIRY CAPITAL.'
ZIPPY DUVALL ELECTED NEW PRESIDENT OF THE AFBF:
THE 2016 FARM BUREAU CONVENTION COMES TO A CLOSE TODAY. AND FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 16 YEARS, THERE'S SOMEONE OTHER THAN BOB STALLMAN AT THE GAVEL. THAT'S GEORGIA FARM BUREAU FEDERATION PRESIDENT, ZIPPY DUVALL. THE LIFELONG FARMER IS THE 12TH PRESIDENT OF AFBF. DUVALL HAS BEEN PRESIDENT OF THE GEORGIA FARM BUREAU SINCE 2006.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, CLINTON GRIFFITHS IS AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK TO LOOK AT WHEAT IN 2016 WITH DUSTIN JOHNSON. WE'LL ALSO HAVE THE LATEST ORANGE PRODUCTION NUMBERS. IN FLORIDA, THEY'RE CALLING IT "DIRE".
LATER....FIND OUT WHY SOME HOLLYWOOD STARS ARE CELEBRATING THE "POWER OF CHEESE"!
THIS IS MACHINERY PETE -INVITING YOU TO CHECK OUT MY NEW WEBSITE MACHINERY PETE.COM -OFFERING FARMERS TENS OF THOUSANDS OF USED EQUIPMENT LISTINGS TO SEARCH. LET MACHINERY PETE HELP YOU FIND AND VALUE YOUR NEXT PIECE OF USED EQUIPMENT.
CME:
LET'S SEE HOW THE MARKETS CLOSED AFTER THE RELEASE OF USDA'S REPORTS. FOR THAT, WE HEAD TO THE CME FLOOR IN CHICAGO. TUESDAY'S GRAIN TRADE SAW THE USDA REPORT COME OUT AND I DON'T KNOW IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT BULLISH, BUT IT'S ACTING BULLISH. IT'S SWEEPING UP 13 CENTS. SOYBEANS ARE UP  AND OF COURSE CORN IS UP 7 CENTS. IT'S SOMETHING WE'VE SAID FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS THAT WE THINK THE BOTTOMS ARE IN AND THE SHORTS ARE GETTING TOO HEAVILY INVOLVED IN THE SHORT-SIDE. ANY NEWS THAT COULD COME OUT COULD MAKE THEM HIGHER. SO EVEN ON A NOT-SO-BULLISH REPORT, WE COULD SEE A MARKET THAT'S RALLYING. SO MOST LIKELY WE HAVE SEEN THE BOTTOM IN THE GRAIN SPACE I THINK. WE WANT TO LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITIES TO BUY AGAIN. IF YOU'RE A GRAIN PRODUCER, YOU WANT TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ABILITY TO HOLD STOCK AND THAT YOU DO SO. I THINK THAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE HIGHER PRICES. THIS IS TODD HOROWITZ FROM UBBATRADING.COM, COMING FOR YOU FROM THE CME GROUP IN CHICAGO.
AGRIBUSINESS:
AS WE JUST REPORTED, USDA IS EXPECTING A BIG DROP IN WHEAT ACRES THIS YEAR. THE GOVERNMENT ESTIMATES IS THREE MILLION FEWER ACRES THAN ANALYSTS PROJECTED. BEFORE THE REPORT, CLINTON GRIFFITHS DISCUSSED THE GLOBAL WHEAT OUTLOOK WITH DUSTIN JOHNSON.
DUSTIN JOHNSON, AGYIELD OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK TODAY. DUSTIN, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE WHEAT MARKET. IT'S NOT SOMETHING THAT WE FOCUSED A LOT OF ATTENTION ON HERE LATELY, BUT IT IS A MARKET THAT HAS JUST KIND OF BEEN SIDEWAYS AND NOT REAL DYNAMIC. > NO IT HASN'T. WHEAT IS ONE OF THOSE MARKETS THAT TRADITIONALLY HAS A VERY HIGH COST OF CARRY, SO THE INVESTORS SEEM TO STAY OUT OF IT A LOT OF TIMES, UNTIL THERE IS A PROBLEM SOMEWHERE AROUND THE WORLD. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT U.S. CARRY OUT FOR THE LAST THREE YEARS IT HAS BEEN GROWING SUBSTANTIALLY AND THAT'S WHY WE ARE HITTING CONTRACT LOWS RIGHT NOW. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON AG YIELD, PLEASE CALL US AT 855-266-6241 OR VISIT US AT AGYIELD.COM.

NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, IT LOOKS AS IF WE HAVE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COMING IN. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR US. IT'S GREAT NEWS FOR THE LONG-TERM. IT'S NOT SO LONG FOR THE FOLKS GETTING THERE AND GETTING THE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS. NONETHELESS, IT'S JUST A STRING OF STORMS, CONTINUING TO POUND THE WEST. AND THESE STORMS MOVE EAST.


REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT YOUR LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL, FOR RED BLUFF, CALIFORNIA, IT'S MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN IS TAPERING OFF. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 56. MINOT, NORTH DAKOTA, MILDER WITH SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. THE HIGH IS 26. IN EERIE, PENNSYLVANIA, IT'S MOSTLY SUNNY AND CHILLY. THE HIGH IS AROUND 34 DEGREES.
TEASE:
UP NEXT -CHINA CALLS-OUT THE U-S ON DDG EXPORTS. WE'LL TELL YOU WHAT'S AT STAKE. AND THE WHITE HOUSE OFTEN WELCOMES CELEBRITIES AND ROYALTY. TODAY IT'S CELEBRATING A REALLY "BIG CHEESE".

OUR PARTNERS AT PROFARMER REPORT THE CHINESE MINISTRY OF COMEMRCE WILL CONDUCT A 12-MONTH ANTIDUMPTING AND ANTI-SUBSIDY INVESTIGATION ON US DISTILLER'S DRIED GRAINS.
THIS COMES AFTER THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT RECEIVED A PETITION FROM THE CHINA ALCOHOLIC DRINKS INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION REQUESTING AN INVESTIGATION. THE GROUP CLAIMS THE HIGH VOLUME IMPORTS OF DDGS CAUSED SERIOUS DAMAGE TO CHINA'S DDG INDUSTRY.
THE EXAMINATION WILL LOOK AT ALLEGED SUBSIDY VIOLATIONS AND DUMPING FROM OCTOBER 2014 TO SEPTEMBER 2015-THAT COULD BE EXTENDED AS LONG AS 18 MONTHS.
TEXT MESSAGE WILL NOTIFY PORK INDUSTRY OF EMERGENCIES:
PORK PRODUCERS NOW HAVE THE OPTION TO BE NOTIFIED IF THERE'S AN INDUSTRY-WIDE EMERGENCY. AND THAT NOTIFICATION IS ALL THROUGH A TEXT MESSAGE. THE NATIONAL PORK BOARD IS LAUNCHING THE TEXT NEWS SERVICE, PORK CRISIS ALERT. A PRODUCER WILL BE NOTIFIED VIA TEXT OF AN INDUSTRY-WIDE EMERGENCY SO THEY CAN TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS IF NEEDED.
THE TEXT WILL GIVE INSTRUCTIONS ON WHERE TO FIND MORE INFORMATION. THE TEXTS ARE JUST USED FOR EMERGENCIES. TO SIGN UP, TEXT PORK CRISIS TO 9-7-2-9-6
ORANGE PRODUCTION DOWN BY 18 PERCENT COMPARED TO LAST YEAR:
USDA ALSO RELEASED TUESDAY THE LATEST ORANGE PRODUCTION FIGURES. AND THEY CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE DOWNWARD PATH IN FLORIDA. IN FACT, THE STATE AG COMMISSIONER CALLS THE SITUATION "DIRE". THE ALL-ORANGE FORECAST COMES IN AT FIVE AND QUARTER MILLION TONS. THAT'S DOWN ONE PERCENT FROM LAST MONTH'S ESTIMATE. AND 18-PERCENT SMALLER THAN LAST YEAR'S UTILILZATION. ORCHARDS HAVE SUFFERED FROM A DEVASTATING INSECT OUTBREAK.
TEASE:
NEXT WE'LL VISIT THE WHITE HOUSE WHERE CHEESE TAKES CENTER STAGE - PERHAPS EVEN 'UP-STAGES' SOME WELL KNOWN ACTORS. FIND OUT WHY, WHEN AGDAY CONTINUES.
CHEESE TRADITION REVIVED IN THE WHITE HOUSE:
AFTER A BIG NIGHT IN WASHINGTON -WHAT WITH THE STATE OF THE UNION AND ALL -TODAY IS CONSIDERED 'BIG BLOCK OF CHEESE DAY.' AT THE WHITE HOUSE. THE TRADITION DATES ALL THE WAY BACK TO PRESIDENT ANDREW JACKSON. HE HOSTED AN OPEN HOUSE IN 1837, FEATURING A 14-HUNDRED BLOCK OF CHEESE. THERE, HE INVITED SPECIAL GUESTS AND ANSWERED THE PUBLIC'S QUESTIONS. YOU CAN JOIN THE CONVERSATION ON TWITTER, FACEBOOK, INSTAGRAM AND TUMBLR THROUGHOUT THE DAY BY ASKING QUESTIONS USING HASH-TAG BIGBLOCK-OF-CHEESE-DAY.
CLOSING:
 THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR MIKE HOFFMAN AND CLINTON GRIFFITHS, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. HAVE A GREAT DAY!
PROMO:
I'M BETSY JIBBEN. THURSDAY ON AGDAY WE'LL HAVE AN UPDATE ON SOUTH AMERICAN CROP PRODUCTION. PLUS, MIKE HOFFMAN IS TRACKING YOUR MID-WEEK WEATHER FORECAST. PLUS, WE'LL HAVE LATEST MARKET ACTION FROM CHICAGO. WATCH US WEEKDAYS ON AGDAY.

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