AgDay Daily Recap -Jan. 15, 2016

January 15, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JAN. 15, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -COTTON SEED GETS CONSIDERED FOR A DESIGNATION CHANGE IN THE LATEST FARM BILL.
AN UPDATE TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BLIZZARD. IN TODAY'S PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING...A LOOK AT LIVESTOCK MARKETS.
TRACTOR SALES FINISH THE YEAR LOWER. AND LEARNING BEYOND THE CLASSROOM. AG STUDENTS TAKE TO THE FIELD FOR A LIFETIME OF EDUCATION.
CHANGED DESIGNATION COULD MAKE COTTON ELIGIBLE FOR SAFETY NET PROGRAMS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. COTTON PRODUCERS PLANNING FOR A NEW SEASON, AND THEY'RE HOPING FOR BETTER TIMES AHEAD. AND PART OF THAT IMPROVEMENT COULD COME IN THE FORM OF A CHANGED "DESIGNATION" FOR COTTONSEED.
DURING THIS WEEK'S FARM BUREAU CONVENTION AG SECRETARY TOM VILSACK TOLD ATTENDEES THAT HIS DEPARTMENT IS LOOKING INTO A REQUEST TO DESIGNATE COTTONSEED AS AN "OTHER OILSEED".
BY DOING SO, COTTONSEED WOULD BE ELIGIBLE FOR FARM SAFETY-NET PROGRAMS -ARC AND PLC. COTTON PRODUCERS SAY THAT STEP WOULD HELP PROVIDE SOME MUCH-NEED STABILITY TO THE U-S COTTON INDUSTRY.
SECRETARY VILSACK SAYS GOVERNMENT ATTORNEYS ARE STILL RESEARCHING WHETHER IT IS LEGAL, HOW MUCH IT MIGHT COST AND WHAT THE TRADE IMPACTS WOULD BE.
HISTORIC BLIZZARD TAKES TOLL ON CATTLE:
THAT PART OF TEXAS ALSO STILL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON LOSSES FOLLWING LAST MONTH'S HISTORIC BLIZZARD.
EARLY ESTIMATES PUT TOTAL LOSSES IN TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO AT ROUGHLY 40-THOUSAND HEAD. WHILE COUNTS ARE STILL COMING IN, THE TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN CATTLE RAISERS ASSOCIATION SAYS THEY'RE REVISING THEIR EARLY ESTIMATES LOWER. SHORTLY AFTER THE STORM THE ORGANIZATION SAID BEEF CATTLE LOSSES WERE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 THOUSAND HEAD IN TEXAS.
IT'S NOW PUTTING THAT ESTIMATE AT BETWEEN 15-HUNDRED AND 2-THOUSAND. THAT DOESN'T INCLUDE LOCAL DAIRIES OR FEEDLOT CATTLE. PRODUCERS IN THE AREA SAYS THEY'RE STILL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON ALL OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE STORM.
THE NEW MEXICO GOVERNOR--FOLLOWING A DAIRY TOUR WEDNESDAY---SAYS
SHE DOESN'T EXPECT ANY FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO BE APPROVED FOR ANOTHER THREE TO FOUR MONTHS.
FUTURE OF CATTLE:
CATTLE FUTURES FINISHED 2015 DOWN 16 PERCENT--THE BIGGEST DROP SINCE 1981. A STRONG DOLLAR PUSHING EXPORTS 12 LOWER THROUGH NOVEMBER AND IMPORTS INCREASED 20 PERCENT. THAT HAD DOMESTIC INVENTORIES OF RED MEAT AT THE END OF NOVEMBER-THE HIGHEST EVER FOR THE DATE. DESPITE THOSE FUNDAMENTALS--RETAIL PRICES REMAINED RELATIVELY STRONG. THAT HAS R-CALF U.S.A ASKING SENATOR GRASSLEY'S OFFICE TO LOOK INTO THE RECENT PRICE COLLAPSE. GRASSLEY SAYS HIS JUDICIARY COMMITTEE MAY TAKE A LOOK TO SEE IF ANY ANTI-TRUST LAWS WERE VIOLATED. THE N-C-B-A SAYS IT DOESN'T SEE ANY MERIT IN THE REQUEST.
CROP WATCH:
DESPITE SOME NATIONAL COTTON WOES, ONE SOUTHERN CO'OP HIT A BIG MILESTONE THIS WEEK. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS MORE IN CROPWATCH. MIKE GOOD MORNING, CLINTON.
LET'S START OFF CROPWATCH IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
DENNIS FLOWERS SAYS THE FARMERS CO-OP ASSOCATION IN SUDAN GINNED APPROXIMATELY 105-THOUSAND BALES OF COTTON SO FAR THIS SEASON. THAT'S THE SECOND LARGEST CROP GINNED IN THAT CO-OP'S HISTORY. DENNIS SAYS THE COOPERATIVE HAS BEEN UP AND RUNNING SINCE 1935.
AND MOVING OVER TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, MATT NELSON SENT US A PHOTO OF CATTLE GRAZING IN THE STALKS, ENJOYING THE SUN. HE'S EXPERIENCING A QUICK WARM-UP BEFORE COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN ONCE AGAIN.
TEASE:
AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP THOSE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE DOORSTEP IN NEBRASKA THAT SECONDARY COLD FRONT COMING IN MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH EAST MULTIPLE STORMS CONTINUE TO COME IN OUT WEST I'LL HAVE DETAILS ON THE REST OF YOUR FORECAST COMING UP.  WE'LL DIG DEEPER INTO THE LIVESTOCK FUNDAMENTALS DURING TODAY'S PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING. THE TEAM FROM CEDAR FALLS IOWA JOIN US NEXT.  PLUS, WE LOOK AT THE IMPORTANCE OF A "HANDS-ON" LEARNING....ESPECIALLY  IN AGRICULTURE...LATER ON AGDAY.
THIS IS MACHINERY PETE -INVITING YOU TO CHECK OUT MY NEW WEBSITE MACHINERY PETE.COM -OFFERING FARMERS TENS OF THOUSANDS OF USED EQUIPMENT LISTINGS TO SEARCH. LET MACHINERY PETE HELP YOU FIND AND VALUE YOUR NEXT PIECE OF USED EQUIPMENT.
CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS CATTLE SPENT MUCH OF THE DAY LOWER. LETS SEE MARKETS FINISHED FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. REALLY A MIXED TRADE IN THE LIVE CATTLE TO START THE DAY LOWER THAN HIGHER THAN LOWER AGAIN. THAT SEEMS TO BE THE SAME TYPE OF PRICE ACTION WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS. IT'S KIND OF A YO-YO IMPACT. A COUPLE LEVELS WE'RE LOOKING AT. 1.28 FOR THE LIVE CATTLE AS KEY SUPPORT. WE CONTINUE TO MAKE LOWER HIGHS AND LOWER LOWS. WE EXPECT THAT TO BE THE TREND UNTIL IT ENDS. AS FAR AS THE LEAN HOGS GO, IT'S A LITTLE BIT MORE INTERESTING OF A TRADE. .62 WAS THE HIGH FROM YESTERDAY.
WE WANT TO SEE A CLOSE ABOVE THAT TO SEE MORE ACCELERATED BUYING PRESSURE COME INTO THE MARKET. A FAILURE TO DO SO WILL LEAD TO LONG LIQUIDATION. ALSO, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WHISPERS OF PEDV, THROUGHOUT THE MIDWEST. THAT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF THAT SPREADS AND DEVELOPS INTO A BIGGER SITUATION, WE COULD SEE A BIGGER BID COME INTO THE MARKET. THIS HAS BEEN OLIVER SLOUP WITH II TRADER FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME.
PROFARMER INTRO:
WE CONTINUE THE LIVESTOCK CONVERSATION IN THIS WEEK'S PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING. BRIAN GRETE AND JULIANNE JOHNSTON JOIN US FROM THEIR OFFICES IN CEDAR FALLS, IOWA WITH A LOOK AT WHAT THE USDA'S RECENT REPORTS FROM USDA TELL US ABOUT THE LIVESTOCK SITUATION.
PROFARMER:
WELL, JULIE, A BARRAGE OF REPORTS FROM USDA THIS PAST TUESDAY. AND MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THE GRAIN SIDE OF THINGS, WITH THE WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS AND THE QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS. EVEN THE S-AND-D REPORT AND THE FINAL CROP PRODUCTION NUMBERS FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS AND MOST OF THOSE NUMBERS CAME IN ON THE FRIENDLY SIDE FOR CORN AND SOYBEAN AND THE WHEAT MARKETS AND WE SAW SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF RALLY I THINK IN THE MARKET PLACE THERE AS FUNDS COVERED THOSE MASSIVE SHORT POSITIONS. BUT WHAT I WANT TO FOCUS ON TODAY IS THE LIVESTOCK SIDE OF THINGS, BECAUSE THAT KIND OF GETS PUSHED ASIDE AND WE DON'T FOCUS ENOUGH THERE. TALK A LITTLE ABOUT WHAT THE USDA DID WITH THEIR PRODUCTION NUMBERS FORECAST FOR NOT ONLY 2015 AS WE FINISH UP THERE, BUT ALSO 2016.> WELL OF COURSE IMPORTANT FOR THE GRAIN MARKETS IS GROWTH IN THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR AND THAT'S WHAT USDA IS PROJECTING FOR 2016, A TWO PERCENT INCREASE IN BEEF PRODUCTION COMPARED TO LAST YEAR AND A FOUR PERCENT INCREASE IN PORK PRODUCTION FROM LAST YEAR, BUT OF COURSE THAT MEANS BETTER DEMAND BASE FOR THE FEED SIDE FOR THE GRAIN MARKETS, BUT THAT ALSO MEANS SOME POSSIBLE PRICE PRESSURE AS WE MOVE INTO THIS YEAR, WHICH I THINK THE MARKET DOES HAVE PRICE TO THE MARKET RIGHT NOW.
TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR:
THANKS TO THE PROFARMER TEAM.
IN FACT MANY MEMBER OF THE PROFARMER TEAM WILL BE AROUND DURING THE UPCOMING TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR. THE SEMINAR IS SLATED FOR JANUARY 27TH THROUGH THE 29TH AT THE HILTON CHICAGO HOTEL. THE GATHERING FOCUSES ON IN-DEPTH BUSINESS AND MARKETING EDUCATION. HUNDREDS OF THE NATION'S BIGGEST PRODUCERS MAKE THE TREK ANNUALLY.
IF YOU'D LIKE TO JOIN THEM--REGISTRATION IS STILL OPEN. YOU CAN FIND MORE INFORMATION AT TOP PRODUCER-HYPHEN ONLINE DOT COM.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINING US THIS MORNING. MIKE LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A COUPLE SYSTEMS ON EACH COAST THAT COULD BRING US RAIN OR SNOW. YEA. LOOKS LIKE IT. THE ONE IN THE SOUTHEAST HAS A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. AND JUST MULTIPLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO COME IN OUT WEST. AND OF COURSE THERE'S ALSO THE ARCTIC AIR RETURNING TO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THAT ARCTIC AIR IS THIS FIRST COLD FRONT. THERE'S ANOTHER ONE THAT'S GOING TO BE DIPPING SOUTHWARD WHICH IS PROBABLY BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. NOT BY MUCH, BUT BY A LITTLE BIT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. SO THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH OF GEORGIA, THE CAROLINAS WITH A LOT OF MOISTURE. BUT IT WON'T LAST LONG IN ANY ONE SPOT. BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN GETS PUT DOWN. YOU CAN SEE SNOW IN THE 4 CORNERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO SNOW FLYING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN ARRIVING, HIGH AROUND 51 DEGREES.
TEASE:
JUST HOW SLOW WERE TRACTOR SALES IN 2015. WE'VE GOT THE LATEST NUMBERS...COMING UP NEXT.
PLUS, SEE HOW HANDS=ON LESSONS ARE PREPARING AG STUDENTS FOR THE NEXT PHASE OF THEIR LIVES.
TRACTOR TALES:
FINAL EQUIPMENT SALES NUMBERS ARE IN FOR 2015 FROM THE ASSOCIATION OF EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS. IT'S LATEST FLASH REPORT SAYS TRACTOR SALES THROUGH DECEMBER WERE OFF 8 PERCENT COMPARED TO 2014.
CHIPOTLE LAWSUITS:
LAWSUITS ARE PILING UP AT CHIPOTLE AFTER A SERIES OF E. COLI OUTBREAKS
SURFACED STARTING IN OCTOBER. THE LATEST TWO COME FROM A SHAREHOLDER AND A 27-YEAR MAN WHO CLAIMS HE GOT SICK IN JULY. THE F-D-A AND U-S ATTORNEY'S OFFICE HAVE LAUNCHED CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS OVER THE OUTBREAKS.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME -WE HEAD IN THE COUNTRY WITH CHUCK DENNEY... "HANDS ON LEARNING IT'S A TERM WE HEAR OFTEN. BUT IT'S ESPECIALLY FOR STUDENTS STUDYING AGRICULTURE HERE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE. THAT STORY NEXT ON AGDAY

IN THE COUNTRY:
IT'S BEEN SAID YOU DON'T NEED TO BE INSIDE FOUR WALLS TO LEARN. ANY PLACE CAN BECOME A CLASSROOM. THAT'S THE TRAINING STUDENTS AT UT'S INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE OFTEN RECEIVE --IN BARNS, FIELDS AND OUTDOOR LABORATORIES. CHARLES DENNEY SHOWS US HOW HANDS-ON LEARNING PREPARES STUDENTS TO MAKE FUTURE IMPACTS.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND ALL OF US AT AGDAY. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. MONDAY ON AGDAY -MACHINERY PETE IS HERE FOR HIS WEEKLY UPDATE ON THE BEST USED EQUIPMENT DEALS AROUND. AND WE'LL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE WHEAT MARKET. IS IT TIME FOR A RALLY. WATCH US WEEKDAYS HERE ON AGDAY.

 

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