AgDay Daily Recap -Jan. 19, 2016

January 19, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JAN. 19, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -A COLD SNAP FREEZES THE FIGHT AGAINST AVIAN FLU IN INDIANA. A LOOK AT THE WINTER WHEAT MARKET AND SHRINKING ACREAGE. IN AGRIBUSINESS, OUR GUEST TED SEIFRIED OF ZANER AG DISCUSSES FOLLOWING THE FLOW OF MONEY.
 “IN THE CASE OF THE GRAINS RIGHT NOW RISK OFF MEANS EXITING SHORT POSITIONS.”
 AND MEET A CALIFORNIA FARM FAMILY HELPING AMERICANS CELEBRATE SPORTS ONE AVOCADO AT A TIME.
FIGHT AGAINST AVIAN FLU NOT AIDED BY THE COLD:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. THE ARCTIC AIR THAT BROUGHT FRIGID TEMPERATURES TO THE NATION'S MID-SECTION IS HAMPERING EFFORTS TO DEPOPULATE TURKEYS INFECTED WITH AVIAN FLU.
FROZEN PIPELINES, TOUGH WORKING CONDITIONS, MAKE DEPOPULATION OF TURKEYS DIFFICULT:
THE INDIANA BOARD OF ANIMAL HEALTH SAYS SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR WORKERS IN DUBOIS COUNTY INDIANA WHO ARE TRYING TO CONTROL THE SPREAD OF AVIAN FLU.
WORKERS ARE USING SPRAY FOAM TO EUTHANIZE THE TURKEYS WITHIN THE FACILITIES. LARGE AMOUNTS OF WATER ARE USED TO MAKE THE FOAM. THE COLD AIR IS FREEZING WATER LINES. IT ALSO MAKES TOUGH WORKING CONDITIONS. USDA-APHIS ALSO PROVIDED AN UPDATE ON THE VIRUS WHICH HAS NOW BEEN DISCOVERED IN NINE OTHER FACILITIES IN THAT SAME COUNTY.
NINE FACILITIES FOUND WITH VIRUS:
IT SAYS OF THOSE NINE ADDITIONAL CASES, EIGHT ARE NOW CONSIDERED TO BE A LOW-PATHOGENIC STRAIN, WHICH DOES NOT SPREAD AS QUICKLY. THE NINTH CASE IS STILL BEING TESTED. THE ORIGINAL CASE IS A HIGHLY PATHOGENIC STRAIN OF H7N8. THIS WAS THE FIRST KNOWN CASE OF HIGHLY PATH H7N8 IN THE COUNTRY.
EVEN THOUGH THE NEWER CASES ARE CONSIDERED LOW-PATH, THE TURKEYS ARE STILL BEING DE-POPULATED. AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON, ABOUT 240-THOUSAND TURKEYS ARE SLATED FOR DISPOSAL. STATE AND FEDERAL AGENCIES ARE WORKING ALONGSIDE THE POULTRY OPERATIONS TO MINIMIZE THE IMPACT AND ELIMINATE THE DISEASE.
GAO EVALUATES USDA’S ACTIONS AGAINST OUTBREAKS:
SPEAKING OF DISEASE OUTBREAKS, THE GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE JUST RELEASED A REPORT ON USDA'S HANDLING OF PREVIOUS EVENTS. THE GAO SAYS WHEN PED FIRST BROKE IN 2013, THE USDA DID NOT INITIALLY TAKE ANY REGULATORY ACTION---SUCH AS REQUIRING THE REPORTING OF CASES--ADDING THAT IT LIMITED AVAILABLE INFORMATION...AND RESPONSE.
CROPS FEEL THE BURN OF COLD TEMPERATURES:
A COLD SNAP THIS WEEK, IS LEAVING MANY WINTER WHEAT FIELDS EXPOSED TO THE ELEMENTS...BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL OF WINTER KILL. THIS IS ON TOP OF AN ALREADY LOW PLANTED ACREAGE. LAST WEEK USDA PUT WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS AT 36 POINT 6 MILLION ACRES. DOWN 7 PERCENT FROM 2015 AND 14 PERCENT BELOW 2014. IN THE MIDWEST--HARD RED WINTER SEEDINGS FELL 9 PERCENTAGE POINT FROM LAST YEAR...INCLUDING RECORD LOW ACREAGE IN NEBRASKA.
QUALITY WHEAT SHOULD BE PRODUCERS' FOCUS:
ANALYSTS SAY FARMERS NEED TO FOCUS ON GROWING QUALITY WHEAT THIS YEAR--OTHERWISE CASH PRICES ARE LIKELY TO GET EVEN WORSE.
QUALITY CROPS:
ACCORDING TO USDA'S MONTHLY CONDITION REPORT--QUALITY WAS HIGH IN EARLY JANUARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHEAT BELT. FROM A HIGH OF 77 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN OKLAHOMA--MUCH OF THAT DUE TO RECORD RAINFALL IN DECEMBER.
BOTH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA SEEING ROUGHLY HALF THEIR CROPS IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION. WHILE NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA GROWERS ALSO STARTED THE YEAR STRONG WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATINGS IN THE LOW AND MID-70'S.
CROP WATCH:
 METEOROLOGIST DAVID HARKER IS FILLING IN FOR MIKE HOFFMAN TODAY. LET'S TURN IT OVER TO HIM FOR THIS MORNING'S CROP WATCH. LET'S START OFF CROPWATCH IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
DARYLYNN SENT US THIS SCENIC PHOTO OF A WINTERY DAY ON THE RANCH, LOCATED IN THE CIBOLA NATIONAL FOREST. SHE SAYS EIGHT TO TEN INCHES BLANKETED THE AREA THE DAY SHE TOOK THIS PHOTO. THE AREA WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARM-UP THIS WEEK.
I'LL HAVE A FULL CHECK OF YOUR FORECAST COMING UP
CANADA OPPOSES LABELING:
WHILE VISITING WASHINGTON D.C. LAST WEEK, CANADIAN OFFICIALS VOICING STRONG OPPOSITION TO ANY VOLUNTARY COUNTRY-OF-ORIGIN LABELING PROGRAM IN THE UNITED STATES.
AGRI-PULSE REPORTING A VOLUNTARY VERSION OF THE U.S. COOL LAW "DID NOT COME UP AT ALL," PER CANADIAN AGRICULTURE MINISTER LAWRENCE MACAULAY AFTER MEETING WITH USDA SECRETARY TOM VILSACK.
NEONICOTINOIDS COULD BE HARMING BEES:
IN WASHINGTON, SOME BEEKEEPERS HAVE FILED A LAWSUIT AGAINST THE EPA FOR NOT REGULATING SEEDS TREATED WITH NEONICOTINOIDS.
THE GROUP OF COMMERCIAL BEEKEEPERS, GROWERS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ACTIVIST CLAIM NEONICS SHOULD BE REGULATED AS PESTICIDES UNDER THE FEDERAL INSECTICIDE, FUNGICIDE AND RODENTICIDE ACT.
THESE GROUPS ALLEGE THAT DUST FROM THE COATED SEEDS IS HARMING THE ENVIRONMENT, INCLUDING HONEY BEES AND BIRDS.
TEASE:
UP NEXT WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT OIL PRICES AND OTHER WORLD MARKETS AS IT RELATES TO THE ROCKY START TO THE NEW YEAR. PLUS WE'LL MEET A FARM FAMILY WHO SAYS AVOCADOES ARE NOT JUST FOR SUPER BOWL SNACKING ANYMORE. THERE USE RANGES FROM CULINARY TO COSMETICS.
MICHIGAN TIME TRAVEL:
"TURN THE CLOCK BACK TO THE 80'S--DAVID BOWIE IS AT THE TOP OF THE MUSIC CHARTS AND GASOLINE COSTS LESS THAN 80 CENTS. AT LEAST THAT WAS TRUE FOR A SHORT TIME OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A MICHIGAN GAS STATION SOLD FUEL FOR 77 CENTS A GALLON.
NATIONWIDE THE AVERAGE IS CLOSER TO 1-89...WELL BELOW THE 3-58 MARK 18 MONTHS AGO. TRADERS EXPECT OIL PRICES TO CONTINUE THE SLIDE AS IRAN RAMPS UP PRODUCTION. THE COUNTRY PLANNING TO EVENTUALLY PRODUCE 2 MILLION BARRELS A DAY.
WALMART MAKES CHANGES:
BIG BOX GIANT WALMART MAKING THE ANNOUNCEMENT LAST WEEK, IT'S PLANNING TO SHUTTER HUNDREDS OF STORES IN THE COMING MONTHS. MANY OF THOSE IN RURAL AREAS.
WALMART SAYS THE PLAN TO CLOSE SOME 270-STORES IS A STRATEGY SHIFT-AS IT MOVES MORE RESOURCES TO ONLINE AND SUPER CENTERS. ROUGHLY 10-THOUSAND JOBS WILL BE LOST IN THE MOVE. THAT SAID, WALMART PLANS TO OPEN ANOTHER 300 STORES IN THE NEW YEAR.

EXPORTS TO CHINA CAUGHT IN ECONOMIC SLUMP:
EXPORTS TO CHINA VIA SAVANNAH GEORGIA ARE DOWN A THIRD FROM YEARAGO. THOSE IN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY SAY IT'S EVIDENCE OF THE IMPACT CHINA'S ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IS HAVING ON GLOBAL TRADE. A STRONG U.S. DOLLAR ISN'T HELPING MATTERS. OFFICIALS EXPECT 2016 COULD BE SAVANNAH'S WORST TRADE YEAR SINCE THE GREAT RECESSION. EXPORTS OF COTTON AND PEANUTS HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY HARD-HIT, WITH EXPORTS OF BOTH COMMODITIES DOWN 16 PERCENT IN 2015.
AGRIBUSINESS:
JOINING ME HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK, WE HAVE TED SIEFRED, ZANER AG OUR GUEST HERE THIS MORNING. SO LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT'S GOING ON WITH GLOBAL MARKETS AND WHERE MONEY IS FLOWING. WHO IS PUTTING WHAT WHERE AND HOW IS THAT IMPACTING OUR COMMODITIES?> RIGHT, THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION, AND IN PARTICULAR LET'S LOOK AT THE GRAINS, BECAUSE THE FUNDS BUILD A VERY LARGE SHORT POSITION, ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE REPORT THAT WE HAD LAST TUESDAY AND WITH THAT REPORT NOT BEING QUITE AS BEARISH AS WE EXPECTED IT HAD TO COVER SOME OF THE SHORT POSITIONS. NOW, THE QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO GOING FORWARD? BECAUSE THERE'S ONE OF TWO THINGS THAT THEY CAN DO: THEY CAN EITHER DEFEND THAT SHORT PRICE POSITION BY ADDING TO IT AND TRYING TO PUSH INTO NEW LOWS AND TRYING TO PUSH THAT NEXT LEG LOWER OR THEY CAN SORT OF GIVE UP ON THAT SHORT POSITION AND START MAKING PROFITS AND START EXITING THOSE SHORTS AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARKET AND LOOKING FOR THAT NEXT TRADE.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TAKING A LOOK AT A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MOVING THE WAY OUT OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES NOTE THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOWN TO THE SOUTH OVER TEXAS THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT IS GOING TO PROVIDE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WE DO HAVE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST LINE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WHICH YOU'LL SEE RIGHT NOW ON THE SCREEN THAT SYSTEM PROVIDING RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND BOY IT COULD BE A DRENCHER IN THE NORTH WESTERN PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES THIS LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH PROVIDES SOME HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR THE OZARKS AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WE'RE GOING TO SEE HOW THINGS PAN OUT BECAUSE IT COULD BE TRICKY DRIVING AS WELL AS ANY PROBLEMS THAT YOU MAY OUT THERE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM CANADA STRETCHING DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD BE A LAKE WEEK
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, A LOOK AT SOME OF THE TRUCKS GETTING ATTENTION AT THIS YEAR'S NORTH AMERICAN AUTO SHOW.
PLUS A CALIFORNIA FARM FAMILY IS SQUEEZING SUCCESS FROM THEIR AVOCADO FARM....JUST IN TIME FOR THE SUPER BOWL!
PRIVATE COMPANY SECURES HAY ACRES FOR FARMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST:
A REPORT FROM REUTERS SAYS A PRIVATE COMPANY--FONDOMONTE CALIFORNIA--SAYS IT JUST CLOSED ON THE PURCHASE OF NEARLY 18-HUNDRED ACRES OF HAY GROUND IN BLYTHE CALIFORNIA.
THE PARENT COMPANY OF FONDOMONTE IS BASED IN SAUDI ARABIA. IT PLANS TO SHIP THE HAY TO IT'S DAIRIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THE SAME COMPANY BOUGHT 10-THOUSAND ACRES IN ARIZONA TWO YEARS AGO. ACCORDING TO REUTERS SOME AG LEADERS IN THE AREA SAY ITS BASICALLY LIKE EXPORTING WATER--USING AMERICAN RESOURCES RATHER THAN THEIR OWN.
SMALLER GAS PRICES—BIGGER CARS:
WITH GASOLINE PRICES SITTING AT "ENJOYABLY LOW" LEVELS, INTEREST FOR PICK-UPS AND S-U-V'S HAS CLIMBED HIGHER. BOTH PRODUCT LINES MAKE A STRONG SHOWING AT THE NORTH AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL AUTO SHOW IN DETROIT.
THE GMC ACADIA -GENERAL MOTORS' BIG FAMILY-HAULING SUV -GOT A BIG MAKEOVER, WITH AN EYE ON FUEL ECONOMY. IT'S 700 POUNDS LIGHTER. G-M SAYS THE DIET BOOSTED GAS MILEAGE TO ABOUT 28 MILES PER GALLON ON THE HIGHWAY COMPARED WITH THE CURRENT EPA-ESTIMATED 24 MPG.
TEASE:
UP NEXT -MEET A FARM FAMILY THAT ENJOYS AVOCADOES -AND NOT JUST BECAUSE OF CONSUMER DEMAND FOR GUACAMOLE.
IN THE COUNTRY IS NEXT.
IN THE COUNTRY:
A BIG WEEKEND IN THE N-F-L IS COMING-UP, AS WE'LL SEE WHICH TWO TEAMS REACH THE SUPERBOWL. FOR THE SNACK INDUSTRY, PLAYOFF SEASON IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST MONEYMAKERS. OUR REPORTING PARTNERS AT "THE PACKER" SAY U-S CONSUMERS ARE EXPECTED TO EAT ABOUT 139 MILLION POUNDS OF AVOCADOS IN THE RUN-UP TO AND ON SUPER BOWL SUNDAY.
OF COURSE, THERE'S A LOT MORE TO AVOCADOES THAN GUACAMOLE. TRACEY SELLERS FROM CALIFORNIA BOUNTIFUL HAS THE STORY OF ONE FAMILY "PRESSING" FOR SUCCESS. FOR MUCH OF THE YEAR, SAN DIEGO FARMS ARE INUNDATED WITH DIFFERENT VARIETIES OF AVOCADOS. WHICH MAKES SENSE AFTER ALL, THIS IS THE AVOCADO CAPITAL OF THE UNITED STATES, PRODUCING ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF THE NATION'S CROP. SO IT ONLY MAKES SENSE WHEN SILVA WANTED TO FARM, THIS IS WHERE HE GOES. IN 2003, HE DID JUST THAT. MOVING HIS FAMILY FROM THEIR HIGH-TECH JOBS IN SEATTLE TO THE HIGH COUNTRY IN SAN DIEGO WITH THE PLAN OF BECOMING FARMERS. AS ANY FARMER WILL TELL YOU, NOTHING GOES QUITE AS PLANNED.
"SOON AFTER, WE HAD A BUMPER CROP, AND THE PRICE KIND OF COLLAPSED ON US SO WE GOT A LOOK FOR AN ALTERNATIVE FOR THESE TYPE OF YEARS. SO, WE THOUGHT ABOUT AVOCADOS. NEXT THING YOU KNOW, I CLEAR A SPACE DOWN TO PLANT THIS AND RIP UP SOME OLD CITRUS TREES AND WE PUT THE PLANT WHERE IT IS RIGHT NOW. THAT'S THE BEGINNING."
THE BEGINNING ALSO HAD THE FAMILY BUILDING A 3 THOUSAND SQUARE FOOT PROCESSING SHED. AND PURCHASING AN AVOCADO SKINNER AND OLIVE PRESS SYSTEM THAT COULD CHURN UP TO A COUPLE THOUSAND POUNDS OF AVOCADO PACED PER HOUR, WHICH IS GREAT IF YOU KNOW HOW TO ACCESS THE MACHINES.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR DAVID HARKER AND ALL OF US AT AGDAY, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. WEDNESDAY ON AGDAY. WE'LL LOOK AT THE REAL IMPACT BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA CROPS WILL HAVE ON THE U-S GRAIN MARKETS. PLUS, TRACKING A NEW AVIAN FLU OUTBREAK.  NEWS THAT MATTERS - FROM FARM COUNTRY - HERE ON AGDAY.

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