AgDay Daily Recap -Jan, 21, 2016

January 21, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JAN. 21, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - JUST HOW LOW WILL OIL PRICES GO?  WE’VE HAD SOME RIDICULOUS CALLS FOR $10 OIL, BUT I JUST DON'T SEE IT. FEARS OF FALLING PRICES GIVE THE STOCK MARKET A ROCKY START TO 2016.  AS POULTRY PRODUCERS WRAP THEIR HEADS AROUND THE LATEST AVIAN FLU OUTBREAK, EXPORT BANS ARE ROLLING IN.   THE ETHANOL DEBATE RAGES ON AMONG PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFULS.  AND JUST HOW DO THEY GET THE MARBLING JUST RIGHT IN COLBY JACK CHEESE?  "I LIKE TO TELL PEOPLE I DO IT WITH ELVES. MY MAGIC ELVES DO IT.” IT’S A HISTORY LESSON THAT MAY SURPRISE YOU.  
NEW YEAR STARTS OFF WITH GLOBAL MARKETS IN THE RED:
GOOD MORNING I'M TYNE MORGAN IN FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AS WARNINGS OF THE WORLD DROWNING IN TOO MUCH OIL HITS HEADLINES, THE U-S STOCK MARKET IS HAVING ITS WORST YEAR EVER.   WE'RE MORE THAN MID-WAY THROUGH JANUARY, AND  THE BEARISH MOOD ISN'T GIVING WAY.   THE  S&P HIT ITS LOWEST POINT IN TWO YEARS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT IT'S NOT JUST THE DOMESTIC   MARKET SCREAMING RED.  THE U-K'S EXCHANGE CLOSING DOWN 20 PERCENT  FROM IT'S APRIL'S HIGH. DUBAI HITTING A 28 MONTH  LOW. JAPAN FELL TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE  OCTOBER 2014.   OIL REMAINS THE MAJOR MARKET STORY, WITH THE FRONT MONTH CRUDE OIL CONTRACT HITTING THE 27 DOLLAR HANDLE.  
FLOOD OF OIL STILL TO HIT MARKETS:
THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INFORMATION WARNED  TUESDAY ABOUT THE BOOM IN OIL SUPPLIES, AS  SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL ARE LIFTED.  THAT COULD INITIALLY PUMP AN ADDITIONAL 500 THOUSAND BARRELS A DAY INTO THE MARKET.   SCOTT SHELLADY AT THE C-M-E SAYS THE REAL STORY IS THE MARKET COULD SEE THESE LOWER PRICES LONGER THAN ANALYSTS THOUGHT.   SHELLADY SAYS THE STRAW THAT WILL BREAK THE  CAMEL'S BACK IS IF OIL PRODUCING NATIONS START TO RAMP DOWN AND WE FINALLY EAT THROUGH THE OVER SUPPLY.  


CRUZ’S SUPPORT COULD RUN OUT OF GAS IN IOWA:
TURNING TO ETHANOL AND ITS IMPACT ON 'AG-VOTE 2016', THE GOVERNOR OF ETHANOL-POWERED IOWA SAYS VOTERS SHOULD REJECT REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL TED CRUZ OVER  HIS POSITION ON THE RENEWABLE FUELS MANDATE.
WHILE SPEAKING AT A RENEWABLE FUELS SUMMIT, GOVERNOR TERRY BRANSTAD  SAID CRUZ HASN'T SUPPORTED RENEWABLE FUELS, AND THINKS "IT WOULD BE A BIG MISTAKE FOR IOWA TO SUPPORT HIM."   WHEN PRESSED ON WHETHER HE WANTED CRUZ  DEFEATED, BRANSTAD SAID YES. BRANSTAD HAS NOT GIVEN HIS FORMAL ENDORSEMENT  TO ANY OF THE GOP CANDIDATES. CRUZ HAS COME UNDER FIRE FOR HIS POSITION ON THE FEDERAL MANDATE WHICH SETS REQUIRED LEVELS OF  BIOFUELS, SUCH AS ETHANOL, TO BE BLENDED INTO THE NATION'S FUEL SUPPLY.  ACCORDING TO "THE HILL", THE TEXAS SENATOR SAYS HE BACKS A FIVE-YEAR PHASE-OUT OF THE STANDARD, THOUGH IN THE PAST HE HAS SUPPORTED MEASURES TO IMMEDIATELY END THE RFS. 
CRUZ CALLED OUT FOR POLITICAL CALCULATION:
DURING LAST WEEK'S REPUBLICAN DEBATE, ANOTHER G-O-P CANDIDATE TOOK A SHOT AT CRUZ FOR HIS POSITION ON SOME KEY FARM TOPICS.  "I SAW YOU ON THE SENATE FLOOR FLIP YOUR VOTE ON CROP INSURANCE BECAUSE THEY SAID IT WOULD HELP YOU IN IOWA. AND LAST WEEK, WE ALL SAW YOU FLIP YOUR VOTE ON ETHANOL FOR THE SAME REASON. THAT IS NOT CONSISTENT CONSERVATISM. THAT IS POLITICAL CALCULATION.">  CRUZ WAS NOT INVITED TO SPEAK AT THE ETHANOL SUMMIT. HOWEVER THERE WERE FOUR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES THERE - INCLUDING DONALD TRUMP, RICK SANTORUM, MIKE HUCKABEE AND CARLY FIORINA. 
BILL KILL:
A BILL TO KILL THE HIGHLY DEBATED WATERS OF THE U-S RULE DIDN'T MAKE IT PAST THE PRESIDENT'S DESK. BUT SUPPORTERS SAY THEY AREN'T GIVING UP JUST  YET.   AS EXPECTED, THE PRESIDENT VETOED THE ANTI-WOTUS BILL TUESDAY NIGHT SAYING, QUOTE, TOO   MANY OF OUR WATERS HAVE BEEN LEFT VULNERABLE.  SINCE NEITHER THE HOUSE OR SENATE WERE ABLE TO GATHER THE TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY TO MAKE THE BILL  VETO-PROOF, THE BILL IS DEAD FOR NOW.   SUPPORTERS OF THE BILL SAY THE FIGHT ISN'T OVER,  TRYING TO FIND NEW WAYS TO BLOCK WOTUS.   AMERICAN FARM BUREAU FEDERATION TOLD US WHILE THERE'S NO DETAILED PLAN IN PLACE AT THIS TIME,  THEY HAVEN'T EXHAUSTED ALL THE OPTIONS IN WASHINGTON. THE BILL COULD GET NEW LIFE BY BEING TIED AN APPROPRIATIONS MEASURE.

 AVIAN FLU UPDATE:
AN UPDATE TO THE AVIAN FLU OUTBREAK IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.   THE U-S-A POULTRY AND EGG EXPORT COUNCIL TELLS US THE RESPONSE TO THIS OUTBREAK IS MUCH MORE PROACTIVE WITH USDA OFFICIALS WORKING CLOSELY  WITH THE INDUSTRY AND VET AUTHORITIES IN THE STATE.  BUT NEWS OF THE H-7-N-8 STRAIN GARNERED NATIONAL  ATTENTION, AND AS EXPECTED, NEW EXPORT BANS ARE NOW IN PLACE.   HERE'S THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE EXPORT COUNCIL.  OFFICIALS TELL US SOUTH KOREA IS RESTRICTING ALL U-S UNCOOKED POULTRY PRODUCTS AND EGGS, BUT COOKED POULTRY IS STILL ALLOWED.   AVIAN FLU IMPACTS TRADE:
HONG KONG BANNED POULTRY FROM ONLY THE INFECTED INDIANA COUNTY.  JAPAN HAS TRADE RESTRICTIOSN ON JUST INDIANA.  AND CHINA STILL HAS ITS BAN ON POULTRY FROM EARLY LAST YEAR.  AS WE SAW IN 2015, EXPORT BANS CAN TAKE MONTHS, IF NOT YEARS, TO RESOLVE.   OKLAHOMA STATE LIVESTOCK SPECIALIST DERELL PEEL TELLS US HOW MUCH IMPACT THESE BANS CAN HAVE. 
CROP WATCH:
AS MANY OF OUR VIEWERS BRACE FOR MORE SNOW,  SOME OF OUR FRIENDS IN THE SOUTH ARE FINALLY  GETTING IN THE FIELD. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS MORE IN CROPWATCH. GOOD MORNING, MIKE.   ALLEN MEISSNER SAYS THE SMELL OF AMMONIA IS IN THE AIR, WHICH MEANS IT'S GOING TO BE A GREAT DAY.   FARMERS IN TEH CENTRAL TEXAS BLACKLANDS HAVE  SEEN ANOTHER WET WINTER, LOOKING FOR DRY FIELDS TO WORK. ALLEN TELLS US THOSE ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE HIGH SPOTS ARE DRYING OUT, BUT THE MAJOIRTY OF HIS GROUND IS STILL WET.   AND HERE'S A DRASTIC REMINDER OF THE IMPACT EL NINO CAN HAVE. OFFICIALS IN THE SOUTH AMERICA  NATION OF BOLIVIA SAY THE COUNTRY'S SECOND LARGEST LAKE HAS DRIED UP.  LAKE POO-POE HAS ALL BUT EVAPORATED UNDER THE GLARING SUN. 
TEASE:
BACK IN THE STATES HERE’S WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH LAND THIS COULD BE A BIG  AS WE MOVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH EAST WE’LL TALK MORE ABOUT THAT COMING UP WHEN AGDAY CONTINUES ON THIS THURSDAY MORNING, WE'LL SEE HOW THE BIG DROP ON WALL STREET YESTERDAY IMPACTED GRAIN MARKETS.  PLUS WE'LL LOOK AT 2016 WEATHER MARKETS WITH TED SEIFRIED. AND GIVE YOU A TALLY OF FEEDLOT LOSSES IN OUR BEEF TODAY REPORT. AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, WE'LL LOOK AT THE HISTORY OF COLBY JACK CHEESE. AND YOU MIGHT BE SURPRISED HOW "LITTLE" HISTORY THERE ACTUALLY IS.
 CME:
AS WE REPORTED EARLIER, IT WAS ANOTHER BEARISH  DAY FOR THE STOCK MARKETS.  NOW LET'S CHECK IN WITH THE C-M-E TO SEE HOW THE  OVERALL BEARISH TONE SPILLED INTO AG COMMODITIES.  
TODAY'S GRAINS SAW PRICES MOSTLY LOWER. WE SAW SOYBEANS DOWN BY 11, WHEAT DOWN ABOUT 4 CENTS, BUT CORN WAS A LITTLE BIT POSITIVE. BUT OVERALL, I THINK IT HAD MORE TO WITH THE OVERALL CARNAGE TO  THE OVERALL MARKETS, BECAUSE OF THE FINANCIAL ENGINEERING, BECAUSE OF WHAT'S GOING ON, I THINK BASICALLY YOU ARE SEEING SOME FOLLOW THROUGH IN THE GRAIN SPACE AND YOU GOT TO REMEMBER, PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO RAISE MONEY.  THIS BOB HORWITZ FORMS BUBBA TRADING. COM COMING FROM THE FLOOR ON THE CME GROUP IN CHICAGO. 
AGRIBUSINESS:
WEATHER IS ALWAYS A MARKET MOVER. NOW THAT EL NINO HAS SET IN, WE'RE ALREADY LOOKING AT WHAT'S NEXT. CLINTON GRIFFITHS JOINS US KNOW FROM THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK.  
<HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WE HAVE TED SEIFRIED, ZANER AG HEDGE. TED, I THINK THE BIGGEST QUESTION EVERYBODY HAS AS WE HEAD INTO 2016 IS MAYBE NOT ABOUT PRICES OR WHAT THAT'S  GOING TO DO, BUT WHAT IS THE WEATHER GOING TO DO AND HOW THAT'S  GOING TO IMPACT US DOWN THE ROAD. > RIGHT, ABSOLUTELY AND YOU KNOW THERE ARE A LOT OF OTHER FACTORS THAT WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT  THAT'S AFFECTING THE AG MARKETS, BUT EVERY YEAR WEATHER IS MAYBE  THE BIGGEST FACTOR, SO ALTHOUGH WE DON'T REALLY TRUST LONG TERM  FORECASTS VERY WELL, THERE ARE A LOT OF INTERESTING THINGS THAT YOU CAN TAKE AWAY FROM WHAT WE HAD IN THE FALL AND THE FIRST HALF OF  THE WINTER AND COMPARE THAT TO SOME PREVIOUS YEARS.> WHAT DO  YOU SEE? WHAT DO YOU HEAR?> WELL, YOU LOOK AT THE PRECIP TOTALS THAT WE HAD FROM NOV. 1-DEC. 31 AND IT WAS A RECORD.> SURE,  LOTS OF RAIN.> AND THE INITIAL THOUGHT ON THAT IS OK, GOOD WE HAVE SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE, MAYBE THAT IS SETTING US UP FOR A VERY  GOOD GROWING SEASON. HOWEVER, IF YOU GO BACK AND LOOK AT THE DATA AND TRY TO COMPARE ANALOG YEARS, YOU SEE THAT 2012 WAS A YEAR WHERE WE NEARLY SET A RECORD IN PRECIP DURING THAT TIME.>AND WE KNOW HOW THAT ENDED UP--VERY DRY.> RIGHT, SO '88 WAS ANOTHER YEAR TOO. IF YOU LOOK AT THAT THE NINE WETTEST YEARS WHERE WE HAD VERY WET NOV. 1- DEC. 31, WE FOLLOWED THAT UP WITH SIX OF THOSE YEARS BEING WELL BELOW TREND LINE YIELD ON AVERAGE LIKE 16 BUSHELS BELOW.>

 
 

NATIONAL WEATHER:
<WELCOME BACK, WELL MIKE I KNOW MOST O FOUR VIEWERS ARE  WATCHING THIS GOLIATH OF A WINTER STORM THAT COULD REALLY BE A  DAMPER THIS WEEKEND. ANYTIME THEY GO THIS FAR SOUTH YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE SOME TROUBLE IN PLACES THAT DON'T NORMALLY GET ICE AND SNOW THEN IT HEADS OUP THE EAST COAST INTO THE MOST POPULATED PART OF THE COUNTRY SO IT'S GOING TO BE A BIG ONE IN MANY PLACES. BESIDES THAT WE HAVE LOTS OF AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MOST OF THE COUNTRY AS YOU CAN SEE OVER THE MIDWEST SOUTHERN CANADA, MOST OF THE WEST COAST STATES JUT A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER  MIDWEST.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME RECENT FORECASTS. WELL  WYOMING, MOSTLY SUNNY AND CHILLY, HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 32.  MARSHALL, TEXAS, PERIODS OF RAIN, MAYBE EVEN A STORM, HIGH OF 52, AND AUGUST MAINE, A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE, ON THE CHILLY SIDE, HIGH OF 24. > 
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, FEEDLOTS BLEED RED IN 2015, AND DESPITE HOPES OF A RECOVERY TO FNISH OUT THE YEAR, THE YEARLY LOSSES REMAINED STEEP. AND A POPULAR CHEESE IS RELATIVELY NEW TO THE GROCERS DAIRY CASE. WE'LL EXPLAIN THE DISCOVERY OF COLBY JACK CHEESE, LATER ON AGDAY. 
BEEF MARKETS STILL HURTING:
IN BEEF TODAY, A GLOOM MACRO ECONOMIC PICTURE  IS WEIGHING ON THE STOCK MARKET, AND CATTLE  PRICES AREN'T IMMUNE TO IT EITHER.  THE STRONG U-S DOLLAR HAS MADE EXPORTING BEEF MORE EXPENSIVE, AND A LAGGISH OIL INDUSTRY MEANS  LESS DEMAND FOR BEEF.  BUT AS OKLAHOMA STATE LIVESTOCK SPECIALIST  DERREL PEEL TELLS US, BEEF IMPORTS WERE  IMPRESSIVE IN 2015, BUT THE LATEST REPORT SHOWS THAT'S DROPPING OFF, WHILE THE EXPORT PICTURE  ALSO LOOKS A LITTLE BRIGHTER.   4 POINT 7 BILLION DOLLARS IN FEED YARD LOSSES:
STERLING MARKETING CALCULATES FEEDYARD LOSSES  EACH WEEK. AND ACCORIDNG TO OUR REPORTING  PARNTERS AT BEEF TODAY, STERLING SAYS WHEN LOOKING AT ALL THE FEEDYARDS ACROSS THE COUNTRY,  THE COMBINED LOSSES FOR THE YEAR HIT 4 POINT 7 BILLION DOLLARS. 
THAT AVERAGES OUT ON A WEEKLY BASIS TO A LOSS OF 239 DOLLARS PER HEAD. A STARK DIFFERENCE FROM THE 191 DOLLAR PER HEAD GAINS THOSE SAME FEEDYARDS SAW IN 2014.   I CAUGHT UP WITH A FEEDLOT OPERATOR IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS FALL. HE TOLD ME THE INDUSTRY WAS  JUST IN SHOCK MODE AFTER HEAVIER WEIGHTS PUT  PRESSURE ON PRICES, CAUSING A QUICK DROP IN THE MARKET.  
<MY DAD TALKS ABOUT 73 A LOT. I WASNT' EVEN ALIVE IN 73. BUT I'M  GOING TO QUOTE HIM. HE SAID I LOST SO MUCH MONEY I FELT LIKE I  SHOULD BE IN JAIL. SO HE COMPARES IT TO 73 AND I'VE HAD A FEW OTHERS TALK ABOUT THAT. I THINK IT'S AS BAD AS WE'VE SEEN IN A LONG  TIME. "> 
BEEF TODAY REPORTS LOOKING SHORTTERM IN 2016, TIGHTER FEEDLOT SUPPLIES COULD SUPPORT PRICES THROUGH SPRING. LOOKING AT A POSSIBLE SPRING HIGH OF THE 140 DOLLAR RANGE. 

TEASE:
IF YOU HAVE A "HANKERIN' FOR A HUNK OF CHEESE,  YOU MIGHT GRAB SOME COLBY JACK. NEXT WE HAVE AN  INTERESTING TALE ABOUT ITS DISCOVERY. 
IN THE COUNTRY:
MOST PEOPLE ARE FAMILIAR WITH COLBY-JACK  CHEESE, BUT FEW PEOPLE KNOW THE SECRET HIDDEN IN ITS DUAL-COLORED CURD. WE'RE UNCOVERING THE UNIQUE STORY OF THIS WISCONSIN ORIGINAL CHEESE, IN THIS VIDEO PROVIDED BY THE WISCONSIN MILK MARKETING BOARD.  (   TO UNDERSTAND COLBY-JACK CHEESE, YOU MUST  FIRST KNOW ITS HISTORY. A WISCONSIN ORIGINAL  CHEESE, IT WAS FIRST CRAFTED IN THE CITY OF ARENA BY SHEER ECONOMICS.
 "COLBY-JACK CAME INTO BEING IN 1979 BY THE PETERSON FAMILY HERE AT THIS PLANT. AND REALLY WHAT HAPPENED WAS THEY WERE MAKING COLBY, AND THEY WERE MAKING MONTEREY JACK, COLBY BEING A YELLOW CHEESE, AND MONTEREY JACK BEING A WHITE CHEESE. THE EXTRA CURDS LEFT IN BOTH VATS WERE ENOUGH TO PRESS TOGETHER INTO ONE BLOCK OF CHEESE, AND THE RESULTS WERE MAGIC. "THERE WAS A DISTRIBUTOR THAT SAW THE CHEESE, LIKED THE CHEESE, AND SAID CAN YOU MAKE  US VAT QUANTITIES OF THAT CHEESE? AND THEY FIGURED OUT A WAY TO DO THAT TO MAKE TWO  COLORS IN A VAT OF CHEESE, AND COLBY-JACK WAS INVENTED!" BUT THERE'S A METHOD TO MAKING THIS DUAL-COLORED CHEESE, AND IT STARTS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF CHEESEMAKING.   "I LIKE TO TELL PEOPLE I  DO IT WITH ELVES. MY MAGIC ELVES DO IT, BUT THE REALITY IS, WE PUT THE RENNET IN SO IT GETS MIXED INTO THE WHOLE VAT, THEN WE PUT A DIVIDER IN THAT DIVIDES THE VAT IN HALF, AND WE PUT THE COLOR IN HALF OF THE VAT. AND THEN THE MILK COAGULATES  AND THICKENS AROUND THAT DIVIDER AND WHEN IT'S  READY WE CAN PULL THE DIVIDER OUT AND CONTINUE  WITH THE CUTTING PROCESS." PREVIOUSLY MADE IN 6-INCH ROUNDS AND CUT AS HALF MOONS FOR GROCERY  STORES, IT'S NOW MADE IN 4-INCH ROUNDS THAT ARE MORE POPULAR WITH DELIS. AND THE FOLKS AT ARENA CHEESE ARE THE PROUD MAKERS OF THE ORIGINAL RECIPE. TO BE MAKING THOSE AWARD-WINNING  CHEESES IN THOSE STYLES, IS…IT'S A GREAT FEELING AND THERE'S A LOT OF PRIDE THAT GOES INTO WHAT WE DO." AND THAT'S WISCONSIN DAIRY NEWS.   ) 
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE  GLAD YOU TUNED IN.   FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M TYNE MORGAN. HAVE A GREAT  DAY. 
PROMO:
I'M TYNE MORGAN, FRIDAY ON AGDAY OUR PARTNERS  FROM PROFARMER WILL BE HERE WITH THEIR WEEKLY PROFIT BRIEFING. PLUS MIKE HOFFMAN TRACKS THAT WINTER STORM TARGETING THE EAST COAST.  NEWS THAT MATTERS - RIGHT HERE ON AGDAY. 
 

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