AgDay Daily Recap -Jan. 29, 2016

January 29, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JAN. 29, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -FROM THE WEST TO THE MIDWEST, OUR COVERAGE CONTINUES WITH A LOOK AT THE CATTLE MARKET.
IN SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA I’M CLINTON GRIFFITHS WHERE THE CATTLE INDUSTRY IS LOOKING FOR ANSWERS TO MARKET VOLATILITY AND WHERE WILL LAND VALUES GO NOT JUST THIS YEAR BUT INTO 2017?
I’M TYNE MORGAN FROM THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR IN CHICAGO, ILLINOIS WHERE COULD LAND PRICES BE HEADING IN 2016 THAT'S WHAT WE'LL HAVE TODAY ON AGDAY.
AND A 14-YEAR-OLD IS IN THE SPOTLIGHT WITH HER POWERFUL RENDITION OF THE STAR SPANGLED BANNER.
USDA CATTLE INVENTORY:
GOOD MORNING I'M BETSY JIBBEN. WE'LL GET A CLEAR VIEW OF THE SIZE OF THE NATION'S BEEF HERD LATER TODAY AS USDA RELEASES ITS LATEST CATTLE INVENTORY REPORT.
THE AG DEPARTMENT LAST ISSUED THIS INVENTORY REPORT IN JULY. AT THAT TIME THE REPORT CONFIRMED THAT U-S HERD EXPANSION WAS CONTINUING. USDA ESTIMATED THE HERD AT 98-POINTFOUR MILLION HEAD, TWO PERCENT ABOVE THE PREVIOUS YEAR.
THE REPORT SAW SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN EVERY CATEGORY EXCEPT THE CATEGORY OF BULLS. 
THE NEW REPORT COMES OUT TODAY AT THREE EASTERN TIME.
2016 CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION WRAP UP:
MEANWHILE THE 2016 CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION WRAPS UP TODAY IN SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA.
OUR OWN CLINTON GRIFFITHS HAS BEEN ON THE GROUND WITH SIX-THOUSAND OTHERS FROM ACROSS THE COUNTRY TALKING ABOUT THE BIG ISSUES FACING CATTLE PRODUCERS IN 2016…AND MARKETS KEEPS BUBBLING TO THE SURFACE, CLINTON.
THAT'S RIGHT BETSY. MANY OF THE BIG ISSUES FACING THE CATTLE INDUSTRY ARE BEING PUSHED TO THE BACK SEAT AS PRODUCERS, FEEDERS AND BEEF BUYERS SEARCH FOR ANSWERS TO MAJOR VOLATILITY IN FUTURES MARKETS.
PRESSURE ON CATTLE FUTURES:
AMID THE HATS, THE BOOTS AND ANTICIPATION ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE.

"TIME IT WAS JUST UNBELIEVEABLE HOW MUCH EQUITY WE LOST IN THIS INDUSTRY IN A 100 DAYS.”
WHAT MOORE IS REFERING TO IS THE MASSIVE DROP IN CATTLE FUTURES THE LAST QUARTER OF THE YEAR…FALLING 16 PERCENT IN JUST A FEW MONTHS—A DROP THAT HASN'T BEEN SEEN IN MORE THAN 3 DECADES. STERLING MARKETING PUT JUST FEEDYARD LOSSES AT ROUGHLY 4 POINT 7 BILLION DOLLARS IN 2015."
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CONCERN ABOUT THE DOWNWARD PRESSURE IN THE MARKETS ESPECIALLY WHEN WE'VE SEEN LIMIT UP AND LIMIT DOWN DAYS AND THEY'VE HAPPENED WITHIN A MATTER OF MINUTES OF OPENING. SO THE QUESTION HAS BEEN WHAT HAS CAUSED THAT?
THE NCBA AND OTHERS ARE ASKING FOR A SECOND LOOK.
IN SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS REPORTING.
RANCH LAND:
THANKS CLINTON.
NOW, WHEN IT COMES TO RANCH LAND -THOSE ACRES GENERALLY CONTINUE TO HOLD THEIR VALUE. THE MOST RECENT FEDERAL RESERVE REPORT FROM KANSAS CITY -WHICH COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF CATTLE COUNTRY -SHOWS RANCHLAND IS THE ONLY CATEGORY GAINING VALUE. 
AS FAR AS CROP-LAND, ANALYSTS TELL US THOSE PRICES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO SOFTEN THIS YEAR. BUT WHAT ABOUT 2017? AGDAY'S TYNE MORGAN WENT TO THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR IN CHICAGO TO GET ANSWERS.
THANKS SO MUCH WELL LAND PRICES ARE ON A LOT OF PRODUCERS MINDS HERE AT THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR AND WHEN I ASKED EXPERTS ON WHERE THEY SEE LAND PRICES HEADING IN 2016 THEY THINK PRICES WILL SOFTEN EVEN FURTHER AND WHEN WILL THEY STABILIZE THAT COULD BE 2017
SOME OF MY COLLEAGUES AT PURDUE HAD DONE AN ANALYSIS THERE LOOKING AT LAND VALUES COMING DOWN ABOUT 20 PERCENT FROM PEAK TO TROUGH, BUT THAT IS GOING FROM $15,000 ACRE LAND DOWN TO 10 SO THAT'S WHAT THEY ARE LOOKING ON AT THE PRICE POINT OF THAT REALLY PEAK AND THEN COMING DOWN TO THAT POINT. BUT FOR 2016, IT WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND I DON'T THINK WE WILL BE SEEING ANY MAJOR STEEP DECLINES, UNLESS SOMETHING MAJOR HAPPENS.> WELL, I THINK WE ARE IN THE THIRD YEAR OF A FIVE-SEVEN YEAR CORRECTION, DEPENDING ON WHAT CORN PRICES DO, SO I SEE FURTHER WEAKNESS AHEAD. BUT I FEEL LIKE THERE'S MORE...WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME STABILITY IN THE WESTERN CORN BELT. THE CORRECTIONS STARTED A YEAR SOONER IN THE WESTERN CORN BELT THAN IT DID IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT, BECAUSE OF THE GREAT CROPS TWO YEARS AGO IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT TWO YEARS AGO AND THEN WE HAD PROBLEMS WITH HARVEST AND WEATHER ISSUES THIS YEAR, SO THE EASTERN CORN BELT NOW IS WEAKENING. I SEE MORE WEAKNESS AHEAD IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT, THE WESTERN CORN BELT IS STARTING TO STABILIZE, BUT OVERALL THIS WILL BE A STEADY PROCESS AND WEAKENING AS WE GO INTO '16 AND '17. I AM REALLY LOOKING FOR '17 AS THE YEAR THAT WE PUT THIS BOTTOM IN. > WELL, AS WE HEARD THE OTHER DAY ON AGDAY, NOW MAY BE THE TIME BUY LAND PRICES: BUY LOW, SELL HIGH AND LOCK IN THOSE INTEREST RATES. REPORTING FROM THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR IN CHICAGO, ILLINOIS--I'M TYNE MORGAN.
TRIAL WAITS FOR CORN SEED STEALER:
A CHINESE NATIONAL ACCUSED OF STEALING PATENTED CORN SEED IN IOWA WILL AVOID TRIAL.
THE DES MOINES REGISTER SAYS MO HAILONG MADE A DEAL WITH FEDERAL PROSECTORS. MO WILL PLEAD GUILTY TO ONE COUNT OF CONSPIRACY TO STEAL TRADE SECRETS. HE WAS CHARGED TWO YEARS AGO WITH BEING A PART OF A SCHEME TO STEAL TRADE SECRETS FROM DUPONT-PIONEER AND MONSANTO. 
MO WAS ONE OF SEVERAL PEOPLE ACCUSED OF DIGGING-UP SEED FROM FIELDS IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS, THE SEED WAS THEN PACKAGED, TO BE SENT TO A CHINESE-BASED SEED COMPANY.
EPA:
LAST FALL, THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY FILED A PETITION TO VACATE THE LABEL FOR DOW AGROSCIENCE'S ENLIST DUO HERBICIDE, WHICH CONTAINS 2,4-D CHOLINE AND GLYPHOSATE. ON TUESDAY, THE NINTH CIRCUIT COURT OF APPEALS DENIED EPA'S MOTION TO VACATE THE HERBICIDE'S REGISTRATION. INSTEAD, THE COURT RULED THAT THE EPA CAN REVIEW WHETHER IT WAS RIGHT IN APPROVING THE CONTROVERSIAL.
ENLIST DUO IS A HERBICIDE THAT WAS DEVELOPED BY DOW AGROSCIENCES TO HELP FARMERS COMBAT WEEDS RESISTANT TO GLYPHOSATE, WHICH HAS BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM FOR FARMERS IN THE UNITED STATES.
CROP COMMENTS:
NOW LET'S HEAD ON OVER THE WEATHER CENTER TO MIKE HOFFMAN FOR THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. MIKE?
GOOD MORNING BETSY.
WHILE CLINTON HAS BEEN BUSY COVERING THE CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION, HE ALSO GOT A CHANCE TO CHECK ON THE AVOCADO HARVEST IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AVOCADOES ARE IN BIG DEMAND THIS TIME OF YEAR SINCE GUACAMOLE IS OFTEN SERVED AT SUPER BOWL PARTIES.
DROUGHT MONITOR:
SPEAKING OF RAIN, LET'S PULL UP THE DROUGHT MONITOR FOR TEXAS: VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE STATE IS DROUGHT FREE. LESS THAN ONE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS CLASSIFIED AS ABNORMALLY DRY. THAT'S QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM A YEAR AGO WHEN 50 PERCENT OF THE STATE WAS ABNORMALLY DRY.
AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP YOU CAN SEE A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTH EAST AND OFF THE EAST COAST AND A COUPLE OF THEM LURKING OFF THE WEST COAST THOSE ARE GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WE'LL HAVE YOUR FORECAST COMING UP.

SPEAKING OF RAIN, LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE DROUGHT MONITOR-CALIFORNIA'S CURRENT CONDITION IS VERY SIMILIAR TO LAST WEEK.
MORE THAN HALF OF THE STATE -ALMOST 64 PERCENT IS EXERIENCING AN EXTREME DROUGHT. 40 PERCENT OF THAT IS SEEING AN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT-THAT'S 2 PERCENT IMPROVEMENT FROM LAST WEEK.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME OUR COVERAGE FROM THE TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR CONTINUES IN ABOUT TWO MINUTES. CHIP FLORY WILL BE HERE WITH THE WEEKLY PROFIT BRIEFING. HE'LL FOCUS ON TAXES WITH PAUL NEIFFER.
AND A YOUNG TEEN PUNCHED HER TICKET TO THE NCBA CATTLEMEN'S CONVENTION WITH HER IMPRESSIVE RENDITION OF THE NATIONAL ANTHEM.
PROFARMER:
MANY FARMERS AND SMALL BUSINESSES ENJOY THE BENEFITS OF USING SECTION 179 OF THE TAX CODE. IT ALLOWS FOR EQUPMENT WRITE-OFFS. IN THIS MORNING'S PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING, CHIP FLORY DISCUSSES THE CURRENT STATUS OF 179 WITH NOTEDFARM-CPA PAUL NEIFFER.
WE ARE THE 2016 TOP PRODUCER SEMINAR IN CHICAGO, TALKING WITH PAUL NEIFER, CLIFTON LARSON ALLAN. PAUL, EVERYBODY HERE IS TALKING ABOUT MARKETING OPPORTUNITIES AND WE CAN'T FORGET THE TAX SIDE OF THINGS WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT PROTECTING OUR BUSINESS OUT THERE. NOW, THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF TAX ISSUES IMPACTING US RIGHT NOW, BUT THERE COULD BE DOWN THE ROAD. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES FOR MAJOR REFORM?> THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE NOW, THERE'S DISCUSSION RIGHT NOW THAT ON 2016 YOU KNOW THE LEAST THE REPUBLICANS ARE TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY WOULD LIKE TO GO AHEAD AND TAKE A LOOK AT ALL THESE CORPORATE INVERSIONS AND CHANGING THAT MULTI-NATIONAL STEP--I DON'T THINK THAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN 2016.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, WE KEEP TALKING ABOUT THIS STORM THAT IS KIND OF LINGERING OFF OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. DO WE KNOW WHAT THAT IS CAPABLE OF, YET? > YES, IT IS CAPABLE OF MUD SLIDES. IT'S CAPABLE OF A WHOLE BUNCH OF MOISTURE, SO LONG TERM IT IS GOOD NEWS FOR CALIFORNIA AND FARTHER EAST IT IS GOING TO PUT DOWN A LOT OF RAIN AND SNOW AS WELL. BUT THE STORM YOU SEE ON THE WEATHER MAP THIS MORNING IS NOT THE ACTUAL MAIN STORM.
TEASE:
FOOD IS CERTAINLY A BIG PART OF THE SUPER BOWL TRADITION. BUT ONE POPULAR ITEM COULD BE CONSUMED MORE THAN THE REST. ACCURATE??

AND ONE GIRL IS WOWING THE CATTLEMEN CROWD IN SAN DIEGO -ALL THANKS FOR HER VOICE. THAT'S IN THE COUNTRY.
EUROPEAN MILK BOARD TO MEET WITH THE POPE:
A DELEGATION FROM THE EUROPEAN MILK BOARD ATTENDED THE POPE'S' WEEKLY ADDRESS AT THE VATICAN ON WEDNESDAY.  THE POPE MET THE GROUP. A SPOKESMAN READ A STATEMENT TO THE POPE CALLING FOR CHANGE TO THE AGRICULTURAL POLICY IN EUROPE. 
E-M-B MEMBERS SAID THEY WANTED TO RAISE AWARENESS AMONGST THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY OF THE ISSUES FACING MILK PRODUCERS.
THE GROUP SAYS INDIVIDUAL EUROPEAN GOVERMENTS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO STIPULATE AG POLICY AND NOT THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION.
CAN’T HAVE SUPERBOWL WITHOUT CHICKEN WINGS:
THE SUPER BOWL CAN BE CONSIDERED AS THE SECOND BIGGEST EATING DAY OF THE YEAR. AND CHANCES ARE YOU OR SOMEONE YOU KNOW WILL BE EATING CHICKEN WINGS.
THE NATIONAL CHICKEN COUNCIL EXPECTS ONE-POINT3 BILLION CHICKEN WINGS WILL BE EATEN NEXT WEEKEND LEADING UP TO AND DURING THE BIG GAME.
THAT NUMBER IS UP 3-PERCENT OR BY 37-POINT-5 MILLION WINGS, FROM LAST YEAR'S MATCHUP.
FOR YOU SPORTS FANS: THE NATIONAL CHICKEN COUNCIL PENCILED OUT THE STATS:
IF THOSE WINGS WERE LAID OUT, THEY WOULD STRETCH FROM BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM IN CHARLOTTE TO SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH IN DENVER ALMOST 53 TIMES.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME...A TENNESSEE TEENAGER SINGS HER HEART-OUT IN SAN DIEGO. DETAILS WHEN AGDAY CONTINUES.
IN THE COUNTRY:
AND FINALLY THIS MORNING, WE RETURN TO SAN DIEGO FOR THE CATTLE INDUSTRY CONVENTION WHERE A 14 YEAR OLD SINGER FROM TENNESSEE "WOWED" THE AUDIENCE WITH HER REN-DITION OF THE STAR SPANGLED BANNER.
ELIZA SMITH WON THE NATIONAL NCBA SINGING COMPETITION WHICH GAVE HER A CHANCE TO SHINE AT THE CONVENTION.
WELL DONE ELIZA. I SUSPECT WE'LL HEAR GOOD THINGS FROM HER IN THE FUTURE.

CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS, TYNE MORGAN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M BETSY JIBBEN. MONDAY ON AGDAY -MACHINERY PETE IS HERE WITH HIS WEEKLY LOOK AT THE BEST DEALS ON USED FARM EQUIPMENT.
PLUS, WHERE IS THE NATION'S CATTLE HERD GROWING?
WE'LL HAVE THE ANSWERS. WATCH US WEEKDAYS FOR AGDAY.

 

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