AgDay Daily Recap -January 12, 2015

January 12, 2015 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JANUARY 12, 2015

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY A PREVIEW OF TODAY'S BIG REPORTS FROM USDA…PLUS, MOVEMENT ON THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE…IN AGRIBUSSINESS...MARKET MOVES FOR END USERS. IF THIS REPORT ON MONDAY IS NEGATIVE THAT END USERS WILL COME IN HERE AND WE'LL WANT TO BUY THIS MARKET WE'LL WANT TO GET SOME CORN BOUGHT ON THE BOARD. AND MEET A FARM FAMILY AS PASSIONATE ABOUT CONSERVATION AS THEY ARE ABOUT COTTON. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
USDA REPORTS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. GRAIN TRADERS ARE STARTING THEIR MONDAY KNOWING THAT NEW GOVERNMENT DATA COULD CREATE SOME HUGE MOVES IN THE GRAIN MARKETS...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
KIM ANDERSON WHEAT:
THE REPORTS COME OUT AT NOON EASTERN. THEY'LL INCLUDE THE WINTER WHEAT SEEDING ESTIMATES. PRE-REPORT ESTIMATES PUT THE CROP AT JUST UNDER 42 MILLION ACRES, DOWN 3 PERCENT FROM 2013. A GENERALLY MILD DECEMBER HELPED THE HARD RED WINTER WHEAT CROP IN THE PLAINS. BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT THE RECENT COLD SNAP CAUSING DAMAGE. STILL MOST OF THE CROP - LIKE IN OKLAHOMA - LOOKS GOOD.
KEYSTONE CONGRESS:
MOVEMENT ON THE KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE TO END THE WEEK…THE HOUSE PASSING A BILL APROVING THE 7 TO 8 BILLION DOLLAR PROJECT ON FRIDAY BY A VOTE 266 TO 153...THE SENATE ALSO WORKING ON ITS OWN COMPANION PIECE OF LEGISLATION…IF APPROVED AND BUILT IT COULD CARRY SOME 800-THOUSAND BARRELS OF OIL A DAY FROM CANADA TO TEXAS REFINERIES.
KEYSTONE NEBRASKA:
THE PRESIDENT HAS THREATENED TO VETO THE BILL IF IT HITS HIS DESK...BUT THAT WAS BEFORE A RULING BY NEBRASKA'S HIGHEST COURT. ON FRIDAY THE NEBRASKA STATE SUPREME COURT STRIKING DOWN A LOWER COURTS RULING AND CHALLENGE BY 3 LAND OWNERS.THE DECISION PAVES THE WAY FOR THE NEBRASKA GOVERNOR TO GREEN LIGHT A ROUTE THROUGH THE STATE..UPHOLDING A 2012 LAW THE PRESIDENT HAD SAID HE WAS WITHHOLDING A DECISION UNTIL THE NEBRASKA COURT RULED.
CROP WATCH:
COTTON ISN'T KING IN KANSAS. BUT FARMERS HAD A GOOD YEAR. MIKE HOFFMAN TELLS US WHY IN CROPWATCH.
PAT ROBERTS:
KANSAS SENATOR PAT ROBERTS HAS BEEN OFFICIALLY APPOINTED CHAIRMAN OF THE SENATE AG, NUTRITION AND FORESTRY COMMITTEE. HE TAKES OVER FOR MICHIGAN DEMOCRATE DEBBIE STABENOW. ROBERTS IS THE FIRST TO CHAIR BOTH THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE AG COMMITTEES.
EPA LIASON:
EPA ANNOUNCING A NEW LIASON TO FARMERS AND RANCHERS…RON CARLETON TAKING THE REINS…CARLETON HAS BEEN SERVING AS THE DEPUTY COMMISSIONER FOR THE COLORADO AG DEPARTMENT SINCE 2012. HE ALSO WORKED AS CHIEF OF STAFF FOR FORMER CONGRESSMAN JOHN SALAZAR.
LOUISIANA SUGAR CANE:
LOUISIANA'S SUGARCANE FARMERS EXPECTED TO START THEIR HARVEST LATE AND FINISH EARLY. BUT...MANY WERE SURPRISED TO FIND A CROP MUCH BETTER THAN EXPECTED. TOBIE BLANCHARD WITH THE LSU AGCENTER HAS DETAILS.
TEASE:
TOUGH AG ECONOMY IS FORCING MORE LAYOFFS AND ARE THERE OPPORTUNITIES FOR END USERS IN TODAY'S MARKETS. WE'LL COVER BOTH OF THOSE TOPICS NEXT IN AGRIBUSINESS.
LAYOFFS:
TOUGH AG ECONOMY IS FORCING MORE LAYOFFS AND ARE THERE OPPORTUNITIES FOR END USERS IN TODAY'S MARKETS. WE'LL COVER BOTH OF THOSE TOPICS NEXT IN AGRIBUSINESS.
MEAT EXPORTS:
MEAT EXPORTS IN 2014 ROUNDING OUT THE YEAR ON A SOLID FOOTING…DATA IS IN FOR THE FIRST ELEVEN MONTHS--JANUARY TO NOVEMBER. THE U.S. MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION SAYS BEEF AND PORK EXPORTS WERE UP 2 PERENT. GOING FORWARD THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH INCREASE SHIPMENTS REMAINS TIGHT SUPPLIES…THAT'S EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN 2015.
CME REPORTS:
MARKETS ENDED THE WEEK WITH CORN UP TO FOUR DOLLARS, WHEAT AT A SIX WEEK LOW AND LIVESTOCK IN THE RED DETAILS FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME.
ANALYSIS:
BRIAN ROACH AG MARKETING IS OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK BRIAN LET'S TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE SOMETHING THAT KIND OF BOTHERS ME AND I'M ALWAYS CONCERNED ABOUT OUR DEMAND FOR THE PRODUCTS THAT WE RAISE ON THE FARM AND THAT IMMEDIATELY TAKES ME TO END USERS NOW WE HAVE INTERNATIONAL END USERS AND THEN WE ALSO HAVE DOMESTIC END USERS YOUR COMMENTS ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING. WELL END USERS AS PARTICULAR THE MEATS AND YOUR ETHANOL PRODUCERS HAD SOME OF THE BEST PRICES THAT THEY'LL PROBABLY SE FOR YEAR PARTICULARLY IF WE DON'T HAVE A GOOD YIELD THIS YEAR IN THE US.  EXCUSE AT THE PRICE MEATS HAVE BEEN THIS YEAR THAT HIGH PRICE AND LOW INPUT THEY SHOULD BE MAKING SOME MONEY OPPORTUNITIES HAVE BEEN THERE BUT I THINK THAT WHAT WE HAVE TO LOOK IS THAT THIS RALLY IN THE FOURTH QUARTER HAS ERODED A LOT OF THOSE MARGINS I'M NOT SAYING THAT THEY'RE NOT THERE BUT END USERS NEED A BREAK HERE TO GET SOME COVERAGE ON INTO MARCH REALLY MORE IN MAY MAYBE EVEN TO JULY WE'RE HOPING THAT IF THIS REPORT ON MONDAY IS NEGATIVE THAT END USERS WILL COME IN HERE AND WE'LL WANT TO BUY THIS MARKET WE'LL WANT TO GET SOME CORN BOUGHT ON THE BOARD OR LOCKED UP SOME BASIS ETCETERA AND GET SOME OF THIS STUFF COVERED BECAUSE AS THE CALENDAR GOES THE SEASONALITY IN THE CORN MARKET OKAY OTHER THAN MAYBE 2013 WHERE WE THE HIGH WAS AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE YEAR TYPICALLY THE HIGH OF THE CORN MARKET IS NOT RIGHT HERE AND SO IT IF WEATHER ACRES THE MIX IN ACRE ETCETERA WE COULD SEE THE HIGH OF THE CORN COME TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE YEAR AND END USERS NEED TO BE BUCKLED DOWN TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY'VE GOT COVERAGE ON AT PRICES THAT THEY LIKE IF THE REPORT ON MONDAY IS NEGATIVE WE'LL BE IN THERE BUYING THE BOARD AND GETTING SOME COVERAGE ON FOR OUR END USERS OUR LIVESTOCK AND DOMESTIC USERS. SO WHAT I HEAR YOU SAYING IF YOU'RE AN END USER OF GRAIN YOU SHOULD BE READY TO MAKE A MOVE REGARDLESS KIND OF WHAT THAT PRICE GOES BECAUSE THE PRICE DOESN'T GO DOWN ON THAT MONDAY'S REPORT YOU'RE STILL GOING TO HAVE BE FACED WITH THAT RAISING PRICES.  YEA I MEAN IF YOU JUST LOOK BACK AT 2014 THIS REPORT IN JANUARY TRIGGERED THE TREND CHANGE TO A HIGHER MARKER ALL THE WAY TO MAY SO YOU WANT TO YOU WANT TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A PLAN TO OFFSET THAT.  OKAY THANK YOU VERY MUCH BRIAN ROACH ROACH AG MARKETING OUR GUEST HERE AT AGDAY BACK WITH MORE IN A MOMENT.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. NOW MIKE LAST WEEK I HEARD THERE WAS 14 STATES THAT WERE ACTUALLY COLDER THAN THE PLANET MARS. WHO COMES UP WITH THESE THINGS? I GUESS IT WAS 17.6 DEGREES ON MARS. ALL I KNOW THAT FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MIDWEST ITS GOING TO LOOK A WHOLE LOT BETTER THIS WEEK THAN LAST WEEK. AS WE GET COLDER BOY THAT COLD JUST BITES RIGHT THROUGH YOU. AND THERE'S NO QUESTION WE'RE GOING TO SEE MORE TOLERABLE TEMPERATURES IN MOST OF THE CORN BELT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THIS WEEK. STILL A TROUGH THOUGH AS YOU CAN SEE KIND OF LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEK…AND THAT'S GOING TO PUSH QUICK BLAST OF COLDER AIR JUST NOT AS COLD AS WE'VE SEEN. AND SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. YOU CAN SEE THAT THERE KIND OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND THEN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WE'RE ACTUALLY GOING TO SEE A LITTLE BIT MILDER WEATHER BECAUSE WE GO ZONAL FOR WHILE. NOW THERE COULD BE SOME STORM SYSTEMS THAT GET KIND OF MESSY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THAT FOLLOWING WEEK BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK GOING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CORN BELT FOR A CHANGE. THEN WE'LL PROBABLY SEE A TROUGH DIG INTO THE WEST. BUT THAT'S ALL TEMPORARY. THAT COLD AIR WILL COME EASTWARD AND WE GO BACK TO COLD PATTERN BEFORE THE END OF JANUARY. BUT FOR THIS WEEK WE'RE GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THE ENTIRE EAST COAST EXCEPT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND YOU CAN SEE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI BACK INTO PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNER REGION. HOWEVER LATER IN THE WEEK WE MIGHT START TO SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CREEPING EASTWARD. NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND FAR NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE WEST COAST EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO FOR THIS WEEK. BUT YOU FOLKS WILL BE TURNING COLDER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HERE IS THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SITUATION AND YOU'RE LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEAST, THE GREAT LAKES MOST OF THE PLAINS STATES EXCEPT FOR TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL THEN EXPECTED AS YOU CAN SEE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS. THERE'S GOING TO BE A LITTLE STORM SYSTEM KIND OF MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. WHICH WHY WE'RE GOING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR EARLY PARTS OF THIS WEEK. AND NEAR NORMAL OUT WEST…NO BIG SYSTEMS COMING IN BUT NONE THE LESS YOU WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION REALLY EVEN ALL PARTS OF CALIFORNIA HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES THEN I THINK OVERALL WE GO BACK TO MY WINTER PATTERN THAT I FORECASTED. ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AND THIS AREA OBVIOUSLY HAS TURNED COLD OVER THIS PAST WEEK. BUT YOU'LL KIND OF GO BACK AND FORTH SO YOU'LL BE NEAR NORMAL OVERALL FOR THE NEXT 30 DAYS. ABOVE NORMAL FOR CALIFORNIA AND SOME OF THE SURROUNDING AREAS, AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 30 DAYS ABOVE NORMAL FROM TEAS THROUGH MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THIS AREA NEAR NORMAL FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE GREAT PLAINS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL...ALSO FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA…THAT'S LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR SACRAMENTO CALIFORNIA MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 62 DEGREES…TAKING A LOOK AT LINCOLN NEBRASKA MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD WITH A HIGH AROUND 20. FINALLY ORLANDO FLORIDA A COUPLE OF SHOWERS, AND MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HIGH AROUND 81…
CLOSE:
NATHAN SERVES ON SEVERAL COUNTY AND STATE BOARDS, FOLLOWING IN HIS FATHER'S FOOT-STEPS. THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

 

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