AgDay Daily Recap -January 13, 2015

January 13, 2015 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JANUARY 13, 2015

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - USDA RELEASES ANOTHER FLURRY OF REPORTS AND MARKETS REACT. HISTORICALLY IT HAS A TENDENCY TO INFLUENCE PRICES INTO THE SPRING TIMEFRAME.
PLUS, THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU MEETS TO SET POLICY FOR THE 2015. IN AGRIBUSINESS A CHECK OF SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER BEEN REALLY RATHER HOT AND RED THEY'RE DRY AND FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS THEY SHOULD BE GETTING PRETTY DECENT STRESS ON THEIR CROPS DAIRY PRODUCERS ARE SIGNING UP IN DROVES FOR MARGIN PROTECTION. AND MEET A TEXAS FARM FAMILY VYING FOR NATIONAL RECOGNITION.
AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
USDA REPORTS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. GRAIN PRICES RESPOND AS USDA RELEASES A MOUNTAIN OF DATA WHICH WILL SET THE MARKET TONE UNTIL PLANTERS ROLL AGAIN...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
GRAIN STOCK:
EACH YEAR WHEN USDA RELEASES THIS PILE OF REPORTS, IT'S ANYBODY'S GUESS WHAT THE MARKET WILL RESPOND TO. THIS YEAR IT SEEMS TO BE THE CARRYOVER REPORT. USDA PEGS CORN ENDING STOCKS AT ONE-POINT-EIGHT BILLION, DOWN 121 MILLION BUSHELS FROM ITS LAST ESTIMATE. SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS WERE UNCHANGED FROM THE 410 MILLION BUSHELS THAT USDA RECORDED LAST MONTH. PROFARMER EDITOR BRIAN GRETE TAKES A CLOSER LOOK.
PLANTING INTENTIONS:
FOLLOWING MONDAY'S REPORT, JANUARY SOYBEANS CLOSED DOWN 38-CENTS ON THE DAY.
OHIO STATE AG ECONOMIST MATT ROBERTS BELIEVES THERE'S A DOWNSIDE RISK ON NEW CROP SOYBEANS AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE PLANTING INTENTIONS REPORT IN MARCH.
OHIO STATE ROBERTS:
THERE'S A LOT OF BEANS OUT THERE IN BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA. AND AS WE MOVE THROUGH SPRING AND GET MORE AND MORE INFORMATION ABOUT PLANNING INTENTIONS, WE'RE GOING TO SEE A LOT MORE INTENDED SOYBEAN ACRES TO BE PLANTED THIS SPRING. AND THAT'S GOING TO KEEP THIS MARKET UNDER A LOT OF PRESSURE. SO I THINK TAKING A LOT OF RISK OFF THE TABLE IN THE NEW CROP BEANS RIGHT NOW WWILL BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION, PARTICULARLY THROUGH THOSE MARCH PLANTING INTENTIONS.
WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS:
USDA ALSO RELEASED ITS ESTIMATE OF HOW MUCH WHEAT WAS PLANTED THIS PAST FALL. OVERALL IT'S DOWN FIVE PERCENT. WINTER WHEAT EXPECTATIONS TOTAL 40-AND-A-HALF MILLION ACRES. MOST OF THAT IS HARD RED WINTER WHEAT AT 29-AND-A HALF MILLION ACRES. SOFT RED IS SEVEN AND A HALF MILLION ACRES.
FARM BUREAU CONVENTION:
THE 96TH ANNUAL AMERICAN FARM BUREAU FEDERATION CONVENTION IS UNDERWAY IN SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA, MEMBERS ARE THERE TO DICUSS POLICY AS WELL AS CHANGES THEY HOPE TO MAKE IN 2015.  NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN JOINS US WITH A LOOK AT SOME OF THOSE ISSUES.
FARM BUREAU CONVENTION STALLMAN:
STALLMAN SAYS FARM BUREAU HAS SUPPORTED TRADE IN CUBA AS LONG AS HE COULD REMEMBER... AS FAR AS TRANSPORTATION IS CONCERNED...STALLMAN SAID THIS YEAR WE NEED TO IMPROVE CONGESTION. STALLMAN ALSO TALKED THE NEED TO EDCUATE ABOUT THE AG INDUSTRY, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO CROP INSURANCE...
FARM BUREAU CONVENTION:
THE BEEF CHECK-OFF WAS ALSO DISCUSSED. STALLMAN SAID HE WOULD LIKE TO SEE PRODUCERS UNITE TO IMPROVE THE INDUSTRY INSTEAD OF FIGHTING POLICY BATTLES.
CROP WATCH:
IT LOOKS LIKE CONVENTIONEERS - INCLUDING OUR RADIO PARTNERS AT AGRI-TALK - ARE GETTING SOME NICE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. CINDI CLAWSON HAS DETAILS, CINDI.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY. CINDI CLAWSON IN FOR MIKE HOFFMAN TODAY CINDI, I GUESS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE MAP IS OUT THERE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. YEAH, THAT'S REALLY WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS COMING FROM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. LET'S HEAD STRAIGHT FOR THE MAPS HERE. NOTICE THERE IS SOME HIGH PRESSURE LOCATIONS UP IN THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES, UP BY THE GREAT LAKES. WE'RE GOING TO BE HIGH AND DRY THERE BUT WE'RE ALSO GOING TO BE EXTREMELY COLD. WE ARE GOING TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY JUST RAIN DOWN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DOWN IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WE WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. THAT'S GOING TO BE AFFECTING FOLKS THERE. AS WE PUT THIS INTO MOTION, WE WILL SEE THAT LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH. WE WILL SEE THE RAIN IN THE UPPER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN THE SOUTHEAST, IT'S MAINLY JUST THIS FRONT. THAT'S GOING TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. WE ALSO HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST. WE REALLY DON'T SEE A LOT GOING ON ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. AS WE PUT THIS FURTHER INTO MOTION, WE'RE GOING TO BE SEEING THAT SNOW SPREADING INTO NEW MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS. WE MIGHT GET A LITTLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, ESPECIALLY THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WE COULD SEE A LITTLE ICE THERE. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF SNOW UP IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AGAIN, MOST OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD BE STAYING DRY. WE WILL START TO SEE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM THAT COULD AFFECT THE FAR NORTHERN STATES AS WE GET INTO LATER TOMORROW. HERE'S A LOOK AT YOUR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE PAST 24 HOURS HERE. IT HAS BEEN WET FOR FOLKS IN FLORIDA AND THAT FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS WE PUT THAT INTO MOTION, THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE BULK OF THAT WILL BE IN THE FRONT SOUTHEAST AND ESPECIALLY WITH THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HERE'S A LOOK AT THE SNOWFALL. WE ARE GOING TO BE SEEING SEVERAL INCHES. THAT'S WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WE WILL BE ADDING MORE TO THAT IN THOSE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT OUR TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE REALLY DROPPED ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT IN THE COUNTRY. WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES ONLY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS FOR A LOT OF FOLKS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN MINNEAPOLIS AND BANGER. WE ARE LOOKING AT 40'S AND 50'S THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND SOME 60'S AS YOU GET DOWN INTO PHOENIX. THEN AS WE TAKE A LOOK AT OUR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND I THINK EVEN COLDER THAN THAT IN SOME SPOTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT WARMER. WE WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE TO WARM UP AS WE GET THROUGH THE WEEK. SPEAKING OF WARM-UP, HERE'S A LOOK AT THE JET STREAM. WE WILL START TO SEE THAT REALLY COLD AIR STARTING TO PULL AWAY. IT'S GOING TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE MODERATE. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER TROUGH DIPPING DOWN AND BRINGING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM THERE, BUT OVERALL, TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO LOOK BETTER WHEN WE GET TO THE END OF THIS WEEK THAT WHAT WE WERE STARTING OFF WITH THIS MORNING. THAT'S A LOOK AT OUR NATIONAL FORECAST. NOW LET'S CHECK OUT SOME LOCAL CITIES. FARMINGTON, NEW MEXICO, RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR YOU WITH A HIGH OF 43 DEGREES.. MADISON, WISCONSIN IS MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY COLD. THE HIGH IS 16 DEGREES. IN WELLSVILLE, NEW YORK, SUNNY AND VERY COLD THE HIGH OF 23 GETTING DOWN TO THREE BELOW...
MPP SIGNUPS:
IN NEWS FROM THE DAIRY SECTOR - THE AG DEPARTMENT SAYS MORE THAN HALF OF ALL DAIRY FARMS IN THE U-S HAVE ENROLLED IN THE NEW SAFETY NET PROGRAM.
THE MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM IS PART OF THE 2014 FARM LAW. AG SECRETARY TOM VILSACK SAYS THE PROGRAM PROVIDES FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE WHEN THE MARGIN FALLS BELOW THE COVERAGE LEVEL THAT THE FARMER SELECTED. SIGN-UP FOR COVERAGE DURING THE 2016 MARKETING YEAR BEGINS IN JULY.
DAIRY COSTS:
MEANWHILE USDA'S ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE JUST RELEASED THE RESULTS OF A STUDY ON DAIRY FARM PROFITABILITY AND ITS CORRELATION WITH HERD SIZE.
OVER THE PAST 20 YEARS, THE NUMBER OF DAIRY FARMS HAS FALLEN BY 60-PERCENT. BUT MILK PRODUCTION IS UP BY A THIRD. THE AG DEPARTMENT SAYS AVERAGE COSTS OF PRODUCTION PER HUNDREDWEIGHT OF MILK FALL AS HERD SIZE INCREASES. MOST OF THE LARGEST DAIRY FARMS GENERATE GROSS RETURNS THAT EXCEED FULL COSTS, WHILE MOST SMALL AND MID-SIZE DAIRY FARMS DO NOT EARN ENOUGH TO COVER FULL COSTS.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

 

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