AgDay Daily Recap -January 14, 2015

January 14, 2015 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JANUARY 14, 2015

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY - THE PORT DISPUTE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS CAUSING MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS. PLUS, THE DISCOVERY OF AVIAN FLU HAS SOME POULTRY EXPORTS ON PAUSE. IN AGRIBUSINESS...FALLING CRUDE PRICES AND THE IMPACT ON ETHANOL. BECAUSE AT THESE KIND OF PRICE LEVELS THEY'RE TAKING THE INCENTIVE TO PRODUCE MORE ETHANOL OUT OF THE MARKET AND LEARNING ABOUT ENERGY THANKS TO SOME CREATIVE CIRICULUM IN TENNESSEE 4-H. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
WEST COAST PORTS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. A WEST COAST LABOR DISPUTE SHOWS NO SIGNS OF A QUICK OR EASY RESOLUTION...AND SHIPPER SAYS IT'S CAUSING COMPLETE GRIDLOCK...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
AVIAN FLU:
MEANWHILE EXPORTS OF POULTRY ALREADY FACING TURBULENCE IN 2015.USDA'S FOOD SAFETY AND INSPECTION SERVICE NOW SAYS THAT 30 COUNTRIES HAVE MOVED TO RESTRICT IMPORTS OF US POULTRY AND POULTRY PRODUCTS.
TEASE:
ANOTHER DROP IN OIL PRICES THIS WEEK, BUT HOW IS THE BIOFUEL SECTOR LOOKING? WE'LL CHECK-IN AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK STRAIGHT AHEAD. PLUS, WE'LL SEE HOW LOWER FARM INCOME TOOK A BITE OUT OF EQUIPMENT SALES LAST YEAR.
ANALYSIS:
HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WE'RE TALKING TO BRIAN ROACH OF ROACH AG MARKETING ONE OF THE THINGS I'D LIKE TO TALK YOU BRIAN AND SUPPOSE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT CORN A LITTLE BUT I REALLY WANT TO TALK ABOUT ETHANOL BECAUSE WE'VE EXPORTING ETHANOL AND OUR COUNTRY IS ACTUALLY WE'RE ALSO IMPORTING A LOT OF OIL AND THERES A LOT OF ENERGY I'M TALKING ABOUT LIQUID ENGERY KIND OF DISCUSSION WHERE DO WE STAND WITH ETHANOL.  WELL THE ECONOMICS OF ETHANOL WERE VERY STRONG IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2014 WHEN CORNS PRICES WERE AT THEIR LOWS AND NOW AS CORN PRICES HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE YOU KNOW WE PUT 85 CENTS INTO THE CORN MARKET AND STRONGER BASIS ON TOP OF THAT IN A LOT OF AREAS AND I THINK THE ECONOMICS OF THE ETHANOL BELND IT'S SELF HAVE GONE TO NEUTRAL IF NOT NEGATIVE IN A LOT OF MARKET AND I THINK THAT'S PUTTING SOME PRESSURE ON ETHANOL PRODUCERS AND THEN AT THE SAME TIME THE BLENDERS HAVE NO INCENTIVE TO BLEND GASOLINE AND ETHANOL CLOSE TO PARODY ON PRICES AND SO THEY'RE ELECTING TO BUY RENT CREDITS INSTEAD OF BUY THE ETHANOL TO COVER THEIR RENEWABLE FUEL OBLIGATION AND THAT'S WHATS PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A CHINC INTO THE CORN MARKET HERE IN THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS IS CRUDE OIL HAS PLUNGED GASOLINE PRICES HAVE PLUNGED AND AT THE SAME TIME THE CORN MARKET ACTUALLY ROSE A PRETTY STRONG 85 90 CENTS AND THE QUESTION WAS HOW LONG CAN THAT GO AND I THINK WE'RE BEGINNING TO SEE THAT HIGHER CORN PRICES UP AT THIS LEVEL HERE IT'S GOING TO TAKE A LITTLE BIT MORE BULLISH NEWS TO GET CORN TO TRADE ABOVE SAY THAT 4.20 MARCH LEVEL UNLESS WE SEE SOME DEMAND KIND OF GET A CHANCE TO GET CORRECTED GET END USERS A CHANCE TO GET SOME CORN BOUGHT HERE FOR NOW ON INTO MAY I THINK THAT WILL COME BACK AND HELP THIS ETHANOL MARKET BECAUSE AT THESE KIND OF PRICE LEVELS THEY'RE TAKING THE INCENTIVE TO PRODUCE MORE ETHANOL OUT OF THE MARKET.  NOW WHEN YOU SAY PRODUCE IT OUT OF THE MARKET THAT MEANS PRODUCE IT AND SELL IT BECAUSE BRAZILS NOT HAVING AS MUCH FUN AS THEY USED PRODUCING ETHANOL AND THEY'RE ACTUALLY IMPORTING SOME OF OURS. WELL BIOFUELS WERE NOT REALLY ENGINEERED OR NOT REALLY ECONOMICALLY PUT TOGETHER WITH CRUDE OIL BELOW 50 DOLLARS.  THAT KIND OF SAYS THE WHOLE STORY. THAT IS PART OF THE PROBLEM HERE.  OKAY BRIAN ROACH AGDAY OUR GUEST.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY, CINDI CLAWSON FILLING IN AGAIN TODAY. CINDI I GUESS WE'VE KIND OF BEEN WAITING FOR THIS WARM UP. TELL ME IT'S ON THE WAY. IT IS ON THE WAY. IT'S NOT GOING TO BE PERMANENT BUT WE WILL SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN MUCH OF THE NORTH EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.LET'S HEAD STRAIGHT TO THE MAPS AND SHOW YOU WHAT'S GOING ON. WE'VE HAD THIS KIND OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MID WEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT'S GOING TO JUST TAKE A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE EAST. THE OTHER THING'S WE'RE GOING TO BE WATCHING IS IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THAT'S GOING TO BE, WE'RE LOOKING AT SOME MORE UPPER ELEVATION SNOW THERE AND WE'RE GOING TO BE LOOKING AT SOME RAIN AS WELL IN SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE. BUT THAT'S ALL GOING TO FIZZLE, IT'S GOING TO START TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH. WE'LL HAVE A COLD FRONT THAT MAY EFFECT FOLKS WITH SOME SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER STATES, THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WE ALSO HAVE SOME RAIN AND A WINTERY MIX EXPECTED HERE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, SO AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE NATION'S MID-SECTION. WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SPOTS WITH SOME WET WEATHER IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND AGAIN THERE'S THAT LITTLE BIT OF SNOW FOR PARTS OF MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN AS WELL. AND AS WE MENTION THAT LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE SOUTH AND TO NORTHERN MEXICO. ADD ON THE NEXT 12 HOURS, REALLY IT'S KIND OF A BORING. WE'LL START TO SEE SOME RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES AND IT'S GETTING TO TEXAS, LOUISIANA, WE'RE LOOKING AT SOME RAIN THERE. BUT MOST OF THE COUNTRY IS GOING TO BE FAIRLY CALM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN WE'LL SEE IT IN ANOTHER SYSTEM, A WEEK FRONT THAT'S GOING TO BE COMING IN TO THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST, AND YOU'LL SEE SOME RAIN THERE, SOME HIGHER ELEVATION OF SNOW AS WELL. AND WE'LL SEE SOME OF THAT SNOW WITH A COLD FRONT THAT'S GOING TO BE HEADING INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. HERE'S A LOOK AT THE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES. NOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, MOST OF IT'S BEEN RIGHT HERE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND OVER IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE SNOW FALL ESTIMATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WHEN YOU ADD THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON, YOU'RE LOOKING AT NOT MUCH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN, BUT WE'LL SEE SOME NICE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF TEXAS. HERE'S A LOOK AT THE SNOWFALL AND YOU CAN SEE THAT MOST OF THAT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND HERE COMES SOME SNOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MAINLY, IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.ALRIGHT, HERE'S A LOOK THEN AT YOUR TEMPERATURES. WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT SOME PRETTY COLD AIR IN THE NORTH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES, EVEN THOUGH, FAIRLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES GETTING DOWN INTO THE SOUTH EAST. OVER NIGHT LOWS WE'RE GOING TO BE SEEING, GETTING DOWN INTO SINGLE DIGITS STILL IN THE NORTH EAST, BUT WE ARE GOING TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COMING YOUR WAY. AND AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKING A LOT BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THAT'S A LOOK AT YOUR NATIONAL FORECAST. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL CITIES.CHENEY, WASHINGTON, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR YOU TODAY WITH SOME FOG... HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 33 DEGREES...DODGE CITY, KANSAS, CLOUDS ON THE DECREASE TODAY WITH A HIGH OF 39 DEGREES. AND WASHINGTON, NORTH CAROLINA,  LOOK FOR A WINTERY MIX.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, WE'LL SEE HOW EQUIPMENT SALES WRAPPED-UP IN 2014.
TRACTOR SALES:
ACCORDING TO THE ASSOCIATION OF EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURER'S MONTHLY "FLASH REPORT," TRACTOR SALES ENDED THE YEAR DOWN. WITH DECEMBER SALES FALLING 2 PERCENTAGE POINTED COMPARED TO THE YEAR BEFORE.  HOWEVER OVERALL, UNIT SALES WERE UP IN 2014...CLIMBING ABOUT 3 PERCENT. TWO WHEEL DRIVE SMALLER TRACTORS SAW AN INCREASE IN SALES OF 9 PERCENT. 40 TO 100 HORSE POWER UNITS WERE UP 11.
BUT THE BIGGER HEFTIER TWO WHEEL AND FOUR WHEEL DRIVE TRACTORS WITH MORE THAN 100 HORSEPOWER SAW DOUBLE DIGIT DROPS. COMBINE SALES ALSO FELL 26 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR.
CARGILL EARNINGS:
CARGILL'S SECOND QUARTER EARNINGS ARE OUT...WITH NET EARNINGS CLIMBING 41 PERCENT COMPARED TO THE YEAR BEFORE. THE AGRIBUSINESS GIANT SAYS MARGINS ARE STRONG ESPECIALLY IN THE ANIMAL NUTRITION & PROTEIN SECTOR. RESULTS WERE LED BY AUSTRALIAN BEEF PROCESSING, AND U.S. CATTLE FEEDING AND PORK PROCESSING.
FAO MEAT:
ACCORDING TO MEATINGPLACE THE UNITED NATIONS' FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION IS REPORTING THE COST OF MEAT INCREASED MORE THAN 8 PERCENT LAST YEAR ACROSS THE WORLD. ALTHOUGH IT DID FALL A COUPLE PERCENTAGE POINTS IN DECEMBER DUE TO A STRONGER U.S. DOLLAR AND GROWTH IN EXPORT AVAILABILITY.
OVERALL - MEAT PROTEIN WAS THE ONLY COMMODITY TO SEE A PRICE INCREASE.
THE INDEX OF ALL FOODS WAS DOWN ABOUT 4 PERCENT FROM 2013.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

 

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