AgDay Daily Recap -January 5, 2015

January 5, 2015 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JANUARY 5, 2015

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY THE DOLLAR IS THE STRONGEST ITS BEEN IN OVER TWO DECADES...ANALYSTS EXPLAIN WHY THE GOOD NEWS COULD STING EXPORTS. USDA IS TIGHENING ITS LABELING LAWS..FIND OUT WHAT MEAT IS AFFECTED...IN AGRIBUSINES, ADVICE FOR WEATHERING THE WILD COMMODITY WAVE...OUR ANALYST HAS SOME 'FRANK' ADVICE, AND GIVING PEOPLE A FRESH START WITH A SECOND CHANCE.  "I THREW AWAY A FOOTBALL SCHOLARSHIP, BECAUSE I WAS DOING THING'S I SHOULD NOT BE DOING.” THESE MENTORS ARE HELPING TURN MISTAKES INTO LIFE- LESSONS AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
RUSSIAN WHEAT:
IF YOU'RE AN AMERICAN FARMER AND YOU'RE PRODUCING WHEAT AND YOU'RE WAITING FOR THE NEXT RUSSIAN DEBACLE, IT'S OVER. SO IF YOU LAUGH AT A $1.80 RALLY AND DON'T PROTECT PRICE OR MAKE A SALE, WELL, WHERE'S THE NEXT $1.80 COMING FROM? SO I THINK WE HAD OUR EYES UP. TOOK FARMERS A FEW DAYS TO REALIZE THIS WAS A WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY, MAYBE A GIFT. SO ONCE THE FARMER SELLING STARTED THE TRADITIONAL HEDGING, WE SOLD OFF JUST AS FAST AS WE WENT UP. WE STILL DO HAVE SOME OF THAT PREMIUM AND THAT PROBABLY MAKES UP FOR THE EXPORT DUTY THAT RUSSIA HAD AND THAT'S WHY WE'RE STILL AT AN INFLATED PRICE SO IT'S AN OPPORTUNITY. RUSSIA IS THE WORLD'S FOURTH-LARGEST WHEAT EXPORTER.
CALIFORNIA SNOW:
WHILE CLAUDIA BATTLED ICE, OTHER PORTIONS OF THE STATE FOUGHT SNOW, SOMETHING THEY RARELY SEE. THE WINTER BLANKET OCCURRED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LOS ANGELES. THE STORM ALSO PACKED STRONG WIND GUSTS TOPPLING TREES THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
CROP WATCH:
THE WIDSPREAD COLD HIT MORE THAN JUST CALIFORNIA. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS DETAILS ON WINTER WHEAT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GOOD MORNING, MIKE.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, WE'RE OFF TO THE CME TO SEE HOW MARKETS CLOSED TO START THE NEW YEAR. PLUS, TIPS TO HELP SORT THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN OF MARKETING ADVICE.
ANALYSIS:
WELCOME BACK, I HAVE ANGIE MCGUIRE HERE OF CITIZEN'S GRAIN. ANGIE, WHEN WE TAKE A LOOK BACK AT 2014, YOU KNOW THERE WERE SOME PRICE RALLIES THAT SOME FARMERS TOOK ADVANTAGE OF, BUT SOME WERE FRUSTRATED BECAUSE ALL THEY HEARD WAS SELL, SELL, AND THEN THE MARKET WOULD GO UP. SO WHAT'S YOUR ADVICE LOOKING AT 2015? KEEP PEOPLE OUT OF YOUR HEAD. I MEAN THERE'S ONLY A CERTAIN HANDFUL OF PEOPLE THAT KNOW WHERE YOU'RE AT FROM A MARGIN PERSPECTIVE AND WHERE YOU'RE AT FROM A COST PER ACRE AND REVENUE PER ACRE.  SO DON'T SIT, I THINK RIGHT NOW THE ONE PROBLEM WE HAVE WITH SOCIAL MEDIA, AND THEY INTER CONNECTIVITY OF PEOPLE, THE COFFEE SHOP MENTALITY, THINGS OF THAT NATURE, IS WE'RE TRYING SO HARD TO NAIL THE TOP, THAT HALF THE TOP WE'RE MISSING IT, PURELY BECAUSE WE WANT BRAGGING RIGHTS. I REMEMBER OFFERING A GUY A TEN DOLLAR BILL TO BRING ME IN 56 LBS OF CORN SO I COULD TELL EVERYONE FOR HIM THAT HE SOLD TEN DOLLAR CORN. AND I MEAN THAT'S ABOUT THE GIST THAT WE'RE RUNNING INTO. SO, THE BIGGEST THING FOR ME WHEN IT COMES TO LOOKING AT 2015 IS SELL, HAVE AN IDEA WHERE YOUR MARGIN'S AT, SELL WHEN IT'S THERE, SELL UNDER RALLIES AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF WHAT THE MARKET GIVES YOU. WHAT'S YOUR OUTLOOK ON 2015? ARE YOU BEARISH OR DO YOU THINK THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME MARKET OPPORTUNITIES? WELL I THINK THE BEAUTY PART ABOUT THE FUNDS AND THE VOLATILITY THAT BUILDS IN IS THAT EVEN THOUGH FUNDAMENTALS MAY POINT TO STAYING STAGNANT OR POSSIBLY MOVING LOWER WE'RE GOING TO SEE SOME BUYING OPPORTUNITIES. FROM THE FUNDS WE'RE GOING TO SEE SOME BUYING COME IN. AND I THINK WE'RE GOING TO SEE SOME SELLING OPPORTUNITIES. I AM ALWAYS OPTIMISTIC; I AM POLLYANNA OPTIMISM UNLESS THE PRICE IS A LITTLE TOO HIGH. I MEAN FIVE DOLLAR CORN AT THE BEGINNING OF SPRING WAS A TOUCH TOO HIGH. FOURTEEN DOLLAR BEANS, FIFTEEN DOLLAR BEANS WHEN WE HIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUMMER WAS PROBABLY TOO HIGH AS WELL, FROM A THIRTEEN DOLLAR STANDPOINT. SO, JUST BE AWARE, I AM SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC, I THINK WE WILL SEE OPPORTUNITIES TO SELL BUT I'M USING THE HIGH WATER MARKS OF LAST YEAR'S FUTURES TO TRADE INTO THAT. BUT WE HAVEN'T PUT A FLOOR IN, IN THIS MARKET. IN THE CORN MARKET…I THINK WE HAVE. I THINK WE PUT A FLOOR IN AT THE TAIL END OF SEPTEMBER. THE OCTOBER REPORT WHEN WE SAW, I THINK THE 320 ON THE FRONT WAS PROBABLY THE LOWER END OF WHAT WE'LL SEE. I THINK THAT THAT WILL BE A SUSTAINED FLOOR IN PLACE AS WE WORK INTO NEXT HARVEST. WELL I KNOW THAT A LOT OF FARMERS IS WATCHING, HOPE YOU'RE RIGHT. ALRIGHT, PLEASE WITH US, WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE AGDAY IN JUST A MOMENT.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME ON THIS MONDAY, MACHINERY PETE JOINS US FOR SOME TIPS AND TRENDS FROM EQUIPMENT AUCTIONS AROUND THE COUNTRY.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

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