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AgDay Daily Recap -January 6, 2015

08:57AM Jan 06, 2015

TODAY ON AGDAY
JANUARY 6, 2014

OPEN HEADLINES:
TODAY ON AGDAY WHAT ARE THE CHANCES THE KEYSTONE PIPELINE PROJECT WILL PREVAIL IN 2015? CAN A NEW CONGRESS PUSH IT THRU, OR WILL THE PRESIDENT'S VETO STOP IT IN ITS TRACKS. A NEW YEAR MEANS TIME TO TALK TAXES. AFTER A MILD DECEMBER, A COLD BLAST REMINDS US THAT WINTER IS HERE. HOW'S A DRY DECEMBER IMPACTING GRAIN PRICES? AND CHANTS OF TOBACCO AUCTIONEERS PROVIDE FARMERS A REMINDER OF THE INDUSTRY'S GLORY DAYS. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY CHEVY SILVERADO 2014 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OF THE YEAR.
NEW CONGRESS:
GOOD MORNING I'M AL PELL IN FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AFTER A TWO WEEK BREAK A NEW CONGRESS WITH NEW LEADERSHIP - GETS TO WORK IN WASHINGTON...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
KEYSTONE NEBRASKA:
SEPARATE FROM THE POSSIBLE VOTE IN WASHINGTON, THE NEBRASKA SUPREME COURT IS STILL WEIGHING WHETHER THE PIPELINE ROUTE RUNNING THROUGH THAT STATE IS CONSTITUTIONAL. THE NEBRASKA DECISION IS EXPECTED THIS MONTH. IF THE COURT RULES AGAINST THE PIPELINE, IT WOULD GIVE PRESIDENT OBAMA A REASON TO VETO THE LEGISLATION IF IT GETS TO HIS DESK.
PAUL NEIFER:
NOW THAT WE'RE IN A NEW YEAR, MANY PEOPLE START THINKING ABOUT TAX TIME. IF YOU'RE A FARMER, THERE ARE SEVERAL DEADLINES TO CONSIDER. PAUL NEIFFER OF CLIFTON LARSON ALLEN, AND A REGULAR CONTRIBUTOR TO AGWEB - SAYS IT CAN GET CONFUSING.
CROP WATCH:
AFTER A VERY MILD DECEMBER, MUCH OF THE NATION IS GETTING A BRUTAL REMINDER THAT WE ARE - INDEED- IN WINTER. HERE'S CINDI CLAWSON.
WINTER HORSES:
DURING THIS BITTER COLD SNAP, FARMERS AND RANCHERS NEED TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT THEIR ANIMALS, AND THAT INCLUDES HORSES.
WHILE SOUTHERN STATES TYPICALLY AVOID THE BRUTAL WINTERS FELT IN THE NORTH, HORSES STILL REQUIRE SOME SPECIAL CARE. IN THIS REPORT FROM THE L-S-U AGCENTER CRAIG GO-TROE TELLS US HOW TO KEEP HORSES HEALTHY DURING THE WINTER MONTHS.
TEASE:
AS WE MENTIONED WE'RE GETTING A REALITY CHECK ABOUT JANUARY WEATHER. BUT WHAT IMPACT DID THAT MILD DECEMBER HAVE ON GRAIN PRICES? WE'LL DISCUSS WITH TOMMY GRISAFI.
ANALYSIS:
WELCOME BACK TOMMY GRISAFIE OF ADVANCE TRADING TOMMY YOU KNOW WE HAD AN EARLY ARRIVAL OF OLD MAN WINTER IN NOVEMBER AT LEAST IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT YOU KNOW WE SAW A QUITE A BIT OF SNOW NOW IN DECEMBER NORTH WEST HAS RECEIVED SOME SNOW BUT LARGELY IT'S BEEN KIND OF DRY THIS DECEMBER DO YOU THINK THAT THIS DRY WEATHER WILL PLAY INTO OUR COMMODITIES MARKET COMING UP ANYTIME SOON. WELL I KNOW WHY GOD MADE WEATHERMEN AND IT'S TO MAKES US COMMODITY ANALYST LOOK GOOD, AND WE WON'T TELL MIKE HOFFMAN THAT.  SO PREDICTING WEATHER IS A TOUGH BUSINESS AND HATS OFF TO THOSE WHO DO WE SAW THEY SAID IT WAS GOING TO BE COLD AND IT WAS GOING TO WARM UP IN DECEMBER WHEN IT'S ZERO DEGREES YOU CAN'T BELIEVE IT'S EVER GOING TO WARM UP BUT WE HAD A INCREDIBLY WARM DECEMBER AND A DRY DECEMBER PARTS OF THE STATES TO MAYBE THAT WILL COME TO PLAY IN THE SPRING BUT ONE INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE HYBRIDS AND THE TECHNOLOGY AGRICULTURE IS TECHNOLOGY IS THAT IF WE GET RAIN AT THE PROPER TIME DURING THE CERTAIN KEY MONTHS IN THE GROWING SEASON WE WILL PRODUCE A LARGE CROP. DO YOU THINK THE TRADE SEES IT THAT WAY I MEAN DOES THE TRADE REMEMBER THAT YOU KNOW WE CAN HAVE A VERY WET SPRING OR A VERY DRY SPRING AND STILL HAVE AN AMAZING CROP OUT THERE.  I THINK THEY BECOME SHORT SIGHTED BASED ON PRICE AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND THEN THE REALITY OF HARVEST LIKE WE HAD THIS PLENTIFUL HARVEST THIS YEAR AND EVERYONES LIKE WOW WHERE'D ALL THESE BUSHELS COME FROM WELL IT RAINED AND IT WAS COLD EVERY DAY AND SO BUT UNTIL YOU ACTUALLY SEE THE BUSHELS OR YOU SEE THAT PRODUCTION IT TAKES PEOPLE A WHILE TO REACT AND FOR SOME REASON THE MARKETS LIKE TO GET EXCITED AND RIGHTFULLY SO WHEN WE GET HOT AND DRY PEOPLE KNOW WHAT TO DO WHEN WE'RE HOT AND DRY YOU KNOW MARKETS SHOOT UP QUICK AND THEN THEY SEEM TO LEAK WHEN WE HAVE THOSE RAINY SEASON WE JUST LEAK LOWER AND LEAK LOWER AND THAT'S THE PATTERN IN THE MARKET WE IN THE TRADE BUSINESS CALL IT TAKING THE STAIRS ON THE WAY UP AND THE ELEVATOR ON THE WAY DOWN. THAT'S A GOOD THING TO REMEMBER ALRIGHT ANYTHING ELSE IN JANUARY THAT WE NEED TO KEEP OUR EYE OUT FOR. WELL SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER CAN REALLY LIGHT UP IN WE COULD BE RAINING ONE DAY AND THEN THREE WEEKS LATER REALIZE WE HAVEN'T RAINED FOR AWHILE SO JUST THE THOUGHT OF IT BECOMING HOT AND DRY DURING THAT KEY POLLINATION POINT WILL REALLY LIGHT UP THE MARKETS EITHER UP OR DOWN SO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER. POTENTIALS EITHER WAY ALRIGHT THANK YOU SO MUCH TOMMY GRISAFIE PLEASE STAY WITH US WE'LL HAVE MORE AGDAY WHEN WE COME BACK.
WX:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY ON THIS VERY FRIGID MORNING FOR MANY FOLKS IN THE NATIONS MID SECTION COUPLE OF AREAS TO TALK ABOUT AS FOR AS SNOW IS CONCERNED WEVE GOT ONE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING ACROSS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT IS BRING SNOW WEVE GOT A STATIONARY FRONT IN MONTANA PARTS OF WYOMING WILL BE SEEING SOME SNOW THERE NOT A WHOLE LOT HAPPENING IN THE REST OF THE COUNTRY PUTS THIS INTO MOTION YOU SEE THAT VERY FAST MOVING SYSTEM YOUVE GOT A LITTLE WEAKER FRONT THATS COMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WATCH FOR THAT SNOW ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD OVER TOWARDS MONTANA NOT MUCH GOING ON OUT IN THE WEST AND IN THE SOUTH WE HAVE A COLD A FRONT THATS SINKING SOUTH BUT ITS A VERY DRY FRONT AT THAT POINT NOW AS WE CONTINUE INTO OUR TUESDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUE TO SEE OUR CHANCES FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE GREAT LAKES AND IN TO THE NORTH EASTERN US BUT HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH SECTION OF THE UNITED STATES WE ARE GOING TO BE SEEING SOME PRETTY COLD AIR THAT HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SINK ON INTO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY VERY COLD AIR AND WE TALKED ABOUT THOSE FRIGID TEMPERATURES A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY SO WELL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME COLD AIR LOOK AT SOME OF THOSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THATS EXTENDING WELL PAST THE LAKES THERE WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS BOY JUST BITTER  COLD WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND MANY CASES BELOW ZERO IF NOT WELL BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY YOURE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATE OF COURSE THIS WOULD BE ALL SNOW BUT YOU COULD SEE THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT AS IT MOVES ON OFF TO THE EAST WE HAVE DIFFERENTIALLY MORE IN THE WAY OF LIQUID OFF IN TO THE PACIFIC NORTH WEST AS FAR SNOWFALL YOU CAN SEE THE ESTIMATE FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES IN PARTS OF IOWA AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT CONTINUES AS WE GET INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT I DON'T THINK WELL SEE QUITE THE SAME SNOW AS THAT SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST BUT NOTICE HOW WE REALLY START TO BUILD IN THAT LAKE EFFECT IN MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA OBVIOUSLY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW FOR FOLKS IN ESPECIALLY MONTANA LETS TALK TEMPS BURR ITS COLD WE ARE TALKING SINGLE DIGITS AND INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STILLS SOME 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE US THATS GONNA CHANGES AS THAT COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH SO OVERNIGHT WERE GOING TO SEE THOSE TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN  INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS THREE DEGREES BELOW IN CHICAGO WE ARE LOOKING AT 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AND AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW WELL NOT QUITE AS WARM FOR YOU WERE ONLY LOOKING AT 36 IN ATLANTA TOMORROW THE WARM AIR YOU GOTTA GO WAY TO THE SOUTH MIAMI NOT A BAD PLACE TO BE RIGHT NOW IF YOURE NOT A FAN OF THE COLD CAUSE WERE GOING TO BE SEEING SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY HERE IS JET STREAM FORECAST AND NOTICE WE HAVE THAT BIG TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY BUT IF YOURE NOT A FAN OF THE COLD WATCH WHAT HAPPENS AS WE GET INTO THE LATER PART OF WEEKEND WE START TO SEE THAT WARMER AIR COMING BACK INTO PLACE AND THINGS WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND IN TO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THATS A LOOK AT YOUR NATIONAL FORECAST NOW LETS CHECK OUT THE WEATHER WHERE YOU LIVE BILLINGS MONTANA CLOUDY AND CLOUD WITH SNOW FOR YOU TODAY AND A HIGH OF 12 DEGREES MUSKEGON MICHIGAN BREEZY SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGH OF 18 DEGREES ORANGEBURG SOUTH CAROLINA 61 TODAY NOT SO MUCH TOMORROW...
DAIRY PRODUCTION:
IN NEWS FROM OUR PARTNERS AT DAIRY TODAY - U-S MILK PRODUCTION IS UP NEARLY 4 PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO. USDA'S "NASS" LAST DAIRY REPORT FOR THE YEAR SHOWS THE NATION'S DAIRY HERD PRODUCED 15-AND-A-HALF BILLION POUNDS OF MILK IN NOVEMBER. THAT'S THREE-AND-A-HALF PERCENT HIGHER FROM NOVEMBER 2013.
DAIRY EXPORTS:
A BIG REASON FOR THE GROWTH IN U-S MILK PRODUCTION HAS BEEN EXPORTS. IN 1996, JUST FOUR PERCENT OF MILK PRODUCTION WAS SHIPPED OUT. NOW, IT'S NEARLY 16-PERCENT. HOWEVER, WE COULD SEE A BIG CHANGE THIS YEAR. OHIO STATE ECONOMIST CAMERON THRANE SAYS GLOBAL DEMAND FOR U-S DAIRY EXPORTS ARE EXECTED TO SOFTEN IN 2015. THRANE SEES DAIRY SUPPLIES IN EUROPE, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND ARE INCREASING. NOT ONLY IS GLOBAL PRODUCTION UP, BUT DEMAND FROM RUSSIA AND CHINA COULD DROP THIS YEAR. THE OHIO ECONOMIST SAYS THE STRONG U.S. DOLLAR AND HIGH U.S. DAIRY PRODUCT PRICES COULD BRING STORMS TO THE U.S. DAIRY EXPORT MARKET IN 2015.
CLOSE:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

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