AgDay Daily Recap -July 1, 2016

April 22, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 1, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -USDA HITS THE MARKETS WITH A DOUBLE WHAMMY... SHOOTING CORN PRICES LOWER, BUT GIVING SOYBEANS SOME LIFE. <IT'S GOING TO BE A BATTLE FOR BULLS TO GET BACK ON THEIR FEET IN THE CORN MARKET> WE HAVE THE NUMBERS. <"IT'S GOING TO BE HARD FOR THE BULLS TO GET BACK ON THEIR FEET.">PLUS, WE HAVE TEAM COVERAGE OF THE REPORTS... <"WELL, IT'S REPORT DAY. WE'LL HAVE THE NUMBERS PLUS WHAT FARMERS HAVE FOR THEIR ACREAGE AHEAD ON AGDAY.">
IN PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEIFING, IT'S NEVER TOO EARLY TO PLAN FOR 20-17 <WHATEVER COCKTAIL YOU'RE LOOKING AT FOR YOUR2017 CROP, IT'S PRETTY AFFORDABLE RIGHT NOW> IT'S A GREAT AMERICAN BARN DEICKED OUT IN RED, WHITE AND BLUE... AND WE HAVE TIPS TO MAKE SURE YOU'RE FOURTH OF JULY CELEBRATION IS A SAFE ONE.
USDA ACREAGE ESTIMATES:
GOOD MORNING I'M TYNE MORGAN. CLINTON GRIFFITHS IS ON ASSIGNMENT. USDA RELEASING A DOUBLE WHAMMY THURSDAY, WITH TWO MAJOR REPORTS. IN RESPONSE, CORN PRICES PLUMETTING, WHILE SOYBEANS SHOOTING HIGHER. LET'S START OFF WITH USDA'S ACREAGE ESTIMATES, WHERE WE SEE AN ACREAGE BUMP ALL ACROSS THE BOARD. BUT IT WAS A SURPRISE IN CORN, WITH THE AGENCY PROJECTING 94 POINT 1 MILLION. THAT'S UP FROM THE MARCH PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS REPORT, WHERE USDA CALLED FOR 93 POINT 6 MILLION ACRES. THE JUNE NUMBER WAS WAY ABOVE THE TRADE GUESS. AND FOR SOYEBANS, USDA LOOKS FOR 83 POITN 7 MILLION ACRES. WHILE IT'S UP FROM THE MARCH REPORT, IT WAS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE TRADE GUESS. AL WHEAT COMING IN AT 50 POINT 8 MILLION, HIGHER THAN BOTH THE TRADE GUESS AND THE MARCH NUMBER.
THANKS, BRIAN. THAT USDA CORN ACREAGE NUMBER IS THE THIRD LARGEST SINCE 1944. NOW MANY ARE QUESTIONING HOW TRADE ESTIMATES WERE SO FAR OFF FROM USDA'S ACTUAL NUMBERS.
FARMERS TAKE :
IN OUR CONTINUED COVERAGE OF THE REPORTS, OUR OWN BETSY JIBBEN IS IN THE FIELD WITH MORE. BETSY, WHAT ARE YOU HEARING AS FAR AS THE ACERAGE MIX FROM FARMERS? TYNE, DESPITE THE INCREASE IN ACRES ACROSS THE BOARD... SOME FARMERS WE TALKED TO TO SAY THEY STUCK WITH THEIR REGULAR ROTATIONS. THEY WEREN'T SWAYED BY THE WEATHER OR THE SURPRISE PRICE RALLY WE SAW THIS SPRING. BUT USDA'S JUNE 30TH ACREAGE REPORT SHOWS THOSE FACTORS DID SWAY SOME PRODUCERS SINCE PLANTING-WITH ACREAGE INCREASES IN FARM COUNTRY.
IT SOUNDS LIKE CORN AND COTTON CONTINUE TO BE KING.
GRAIN STOCKS REPORT:
THANKS, BETSY. NOW FOR THE QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORT, IT ALSO PAINTED A BEARISH PICTURE, WITH LARGER STOCKPILES OF GRAIN ALL ACROSS THE BOARD. CORN STOCKS ARE AT 4.7 BILLION, UP 6 PERCENT FROM THIS TIME LAST YEAR. SOYEBAN STOCKS ARE PEGGED AT 870 MILLION BUSHELS, UP 39 PERCENT FROM 2015. AND OLD CROP WHEAT IS AT 981 MILLION, UP 30 PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. BUT LOOK AT THAT SORGHUM NUMBER. SOCKS ARE 88 POINT 3 MILLION BUSHELS AS OF JULY FIRST, UP 157 PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO.
DROUGHT MONITOR:
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSENING IN IOWA IN THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITIOR. THE MODERATE DROUGHT CATEGORY GREW 5 POINTS. AND THE AREA CONSIDERED ABNORMALLY DRY WORSENING 7 POINTS. DROUGHT ALSO SPREADING IN THE SOUTHEAST, WITH SEVERE CONDITIONS EVEN POPPING UP IN POCKETS OF GEORGIA AND ALABMA. AND FARTHER WEST, SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING ALSO SEEING POCKETS OF EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
CROP COMMENTS:
WE ARE GIVING BOTH THE EAST AND WEST CORNBELT SOME LOVE THIS MORNING. WE HAVE AN UPDATE ON CONDITIONS IN CROP COMMENTS. MIKE. GOOD MORNING, TYNE.
LET'S START OFF IN CEDAR FALLS, IOWA. BRENT JUDISCH SAYS HIS CORN STARTED TO TASSEL IN NORTHEAST IOWA IN LATE JUNE. HE SAYS THAT'S THE EARLIEST HIS CROP HAS EVER MATURED ON HIS FARM. JUDISCH SAYS CONDITIONS ARE ALMOST PERFECT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. TOPSOIL AND SUBSOIL ARE IN GOOD SUPPLY. AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE DROUGHT MONITOR. YOU CAN SEE WE NOW HAVE POCKETS OF EXTREME DROUGHT IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, PARTS OF THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTWARD.
TEASE:
IT'S NEVER TOO EARLY TO LOOK AT 2017, RIGHT? OUR PARTNERS AT PROFARMER GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE USDA REPORTS TO TELL YOU WHAT FRIENDLY FERTILIZER PRICES YOU SHOULD LOCK IN TODAY. AND LATER, AN HISTORIC BARN PAINTED IN RED, WHITE AND BLUE, JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY. PLUS, IF YOU'RE PLANNING ON SETTING OFF A FEW FIREWORKS THIS WEEKEND, WE HAVE SOME TIPS TO STAY SAFE.
PITCH TO TUESDAY:
AND TUESDAY, WE INVITE YOU TO JOIN US FOR A SPECIAL WEATHER EDITION OF AGDAY. THE WEATHER'S ALREADY BEEN A MAJOR MARKET MOVER, BUT COULD RUMORS HOLD TRUE AND WE REALLY SEE DROUGHT AS SEVERE AS 2012 THIS YEAR? TUNE INTO SEE, TUESDAY, ON AGDAY.
BREXIT IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY:
IT'S BEEN ONE WEEK SINCE BRITAIN SHOCKED THE MARKETS WITH A MONUMENTAL VOTE TO EXIT THE E-U. WHILE THE TOTAL IMPACT FROM THE FALLOUT IS STILL UNCLEAR, IT'S NOT STOPPING COMMODITES FROM POSTING THEIR BEST QUARTELY GAINS SINCE 20-10. RABOBANK AGRIFINANCE'S STEVE NICHOLS SAYS ONE LITTLE RIPPLE IN THE WORLD ECONOMIC PICTURE TODAY, CAN HAVE A MAJOR IMAPCT. AND THAT'S WHAT WE SAW WITH THE BREXIT VOTE. NICHOLS SAYS WHEN IT COMES TO THE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE, WE SHOULD BE MOST WORRIED ABOUT UNCERTAINTY AND THE VALUE OF THE U-S DOLLAR.

FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
PLENTY OF ACTION IN TODAY'S GRAIN MARKETS WITH TWO USDA REPORTS. LET'S CHECK IN WITH THE CME FLOOR TO SEE HOW IT MOVED THE MARKETS ON THURSDAY.
I WANT TO START FOCUSING IN ON THAT CORN CONTRACT AND HOW KIND OF REACTED AFTER THIS MORNING'S USDA REPORT THAT WE CAME IN WITH A LOT OF ACRES, OVER NINETY FOUR MILLION JUST TOPPED EXPECTATIONSTOP HIGH END OF EXPECTATIONS, WHICH SENT CORN FUTURES SHARPLY LOWER RIGHT AFTER THAT REPORT. ON TOP THAT, WE ALSO HAD HIGHER IN THE STOCK SO WE'VE GOT A LOT OF TECHNICAL DAMAGE ON THE CHART ON THAT DECEMBER CONTRACT. THIS HAS BEEN OLIVER SLOUP WITH II TRADER, COMING TO YOU FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME.
PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING:
WE'RE GIVING YOU A LITTLE BREAK FROM THE USDA REPORTS IN THIS MORNING'S PRO FARMER PROFIT BRIEFING. IT'S NEVER TOO EARLY TO LOOK AT 2017 AND LOCKING IN THE BEST DEALS ON INPUTS. SO, OUR FRIENDS AT PROFARMER TALK ABOUT THE BEST BUYS TODAY, TO HELP YOUR BOTTOMLINE TOMORROW.
YOU KNOW WE'VE STILL GOT THE NEW CROP PROTECTION DECISIONS TO MAKE ON THE INPUT SIDE FOR THE 2016 CROP DAVIS, BUT IT SEEMS WEIRD TO SAY IT, BUT YOU'RE WRAPPING UP YOUR TWENTY SIXTEEN YEAR AND ALREADY STARTING TO LOOK FORWARD TO 2017 WHEN IT COMES TO BUYING FERTILIZER AND EVEN YOUR FUEL FOR THE 2017 CROPS THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT AND ONE OF THE WAYS THAT WE LOOK AT FERTILIZERS GENERAL AFFORDABLE-NESS, IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT THAT, IS BY LOOKING OUT OF THE DECEMBER FUTURES CONTRACT, AND WITH THE FIRST OF JULY ANNUALLY, WE SWITCH OVER TO THE NEXT DEFERRED CONTRACT. WE WILL BE STARTING TO LOOK AT THE DECEMBER '17 FUTURES HERE WE'RE TALKING INPUTOK,OVERALL AS YOU LOOK FORWARD TO THE 2017 PRODUCTION YEAR HOW IS FERTILIZER
ALRIGHT, WE GET THE 2017 YEAR STARTED WITH DAVIS MICHAELSEN, AN EDITOR OF PRO FARMER, AND ALL THE EDITORS HERE AT PRO FARMER IN CEDAR FALLS, I'M CHIP FLORY.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK. WELL, MIKE THURSDAY WAS NOT A GOOD DAY FOR CORN PRICES MEANS USDA REPORTS WERE BRUTAL ON THE PRICE. SO, NOW ARE WATCHING WEATHER AND YOU'RE NINETY DAY. COULD WE HAVE ANY WEATHER ISSUES? ISSUES SHOW UP? WELL, I GUESS YOU'RE GOING TO TELL US. WE ARE WE WE NORMALLY DO THAT ON MONDAYS, BUT BECAUSE IT'S THE FOURTH OF JULY WE'RE GOING TO DO IT ON THE FRIDAY BEFORE THE WEEKEND HERE. SO, STARTING OFF WE'LL LOOK AT THE CURRENT MAP. YOU CAN SEE A STATIONARY FRONT THE SOUTH IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BUT ALSO THOSE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, FAIR AMOUNT IN THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF THE DROUGHT AREAS THAT WE SHOWED YOU EARLIER ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTHERN GEORGIA
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, IT'S A PATRIOTIC BARN PROUD OF ITS HERTIAGE. THAT'S OUR GREAT AMERICAN BARN ON THIS FRIDAY. PLUS, VERMONT'S GMO LABELING LAW IS NOW IN EFFECT, WITH NO NATIONAL STANDARD IN PLACE. WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN? WE'LL EXPLAIN, NEXT, ON AGDAY.
GREAT AMERICAN BARN:
TODAY'S GREAT AMERICAN BARN IS PERFECT WAY TO CELEBRATE THE FOURTH OF JULY.  AND THE BARN OWNER SURE SEEMS PROUD OF THE RED, WHITE AND BLUE. WE HEAD TO BERRIEN SPRINGS, MICHIGAN WHERE  STOVERS U-PIC FARM IS LOCATED.  THIS PICTURESQUE RED BARN IS MORE THAN 165 YEARS OLD. THE FAMILY LIKES TO USE ROUND HAY BALES TO CREATE CHARACTERS ALL YEAR LONG THAT SEEM TO STAND GUARD IN FRONT OF THE BARN. RIGHT NOW WE SEE A PATRIOTIC THEME WITH UNCLE SAM AND HIS STOVE-PIPE HAT. AND NEXT TO HIM IS LADY LIBERTY COMPLETE WITH TORCH. 
GMO:
VERMONT'S GMO LABELING LAW GOES INTO EFFECT TODAY, WITHOUT A NATIONAL STANDARD IN PLACE. BUT THE SENATE'S LABELING BILL IS ONE STEP CLOSER, PASSING A PROCEDURAL MEASURE ON WEDNESDAY. THAT'S AFTER SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS TRIED DERAILING THE MEASURE. PROFARMER WASHINGTIN INSIDER JIM WIESEMEYER SAYS THIS MEANS THE SENATE WON'T TAKE UP THE MEASURE UNTIL AFTER JULY 5TH. BUT SENATOR DEBBIE STABENOW SAYS IT WILL HAVE THE 60 VOTES WHEN THE MEASURE DOES COME UP. IN THE MEANTIME, COCA-COLA SAYS IT MAY PULL SOME OF ITS PRODUCTS FROM VERMONT STORE SHELVES TO COMPLY WITH THE NEW LAW. IT WON'T BE THE MAJOR BRANDS, LIKE COKE, DIET COKE OR COKE ZERO, BUT THE LOWER VOLUME BRANDS
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, FIREWORKS ARE FUN, BUT THEY CAN ALSO BE DANGEROUS. WE HAVE TIPS TO KEEP YOU SAFE THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
IN THE COUNTRY:
AS YOU PREPARE FOR THE INDEPDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, FIREWORKS MAY BE ON YOUR SHOPPING LIST. WHILE THEY CAN PROVIDE COLOR TO ANY CELBRATION, A UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI WARNS OF THE HAZARDS THAT EVEN THE SIMPLEST FIREWORKS CAN CREATE. ACCORDING TO THE U-S CONSUMER SAFETY COMMISSION, AROUND 230 PEOPLE REQUIRE EMERGENCY CARE AFTER A FIREWORK ACCIDENT AROUND INDEPENDENCE DAY.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE  GLAD YOU TUNED IN. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, A SPECIAL THANKS TO ALL THE MEN AND WOMEN MAKING SACRIFICES EVERY DAY FOR OUR FREEDOM. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, BETSY JIBBEN AND THE FOLKS AT PROFARMER, I'M TYNE MORGAN, HAVE A SAFE AND NJOYABLE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
PROMO:
INDEPENDECE DAY ON AGDAY, IT'S A TRIBUTE TO THE RED, WHITE AND BLUE STARTING OUT WEST. WE'LL TAKE YOU TO THE BIRTHPLACE OF HOME ON THE RANGE. PLUS, A PERSONAL LOOK AT TWO OF BASEBALL AND BASKETBALL'S GREATS. IT'S A SPECIAL EDITION YOU WON'T WANT TO MISS.

 

 

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