AgDay Daily Recap -July 13, 2016

July 13, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 13, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
TODAY ON AGDAY-THE AG DEPARTMENT UPPS THE CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION ESTIMATES. IS IT AS MUCH AS ANALYSTS EXPECTED? WE HAVE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE. PLUS, MID-SEASON CHECK OF A KEY MIDWESTERN STATE. "I'M TYNE MORGAN COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY IT MAY HAVE BEEN USDA REPORT DAY BUT ALL EYES ARE STILL ON WEATHER AND YIELD WE'LL TAKE YOU TO A GARDEN SPOT IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS." IN AGRIBUSINESS -TO STORE OR SELL WHEAT. "WELL THE WHEAT CROP HAS SURPRISED EVERYBODY IT'S ACTUALLY BEEN BETTER THAN EXPECTED"AND A TYPE OF YACHT CLUB FOR COUNTRY FOLK.
USDA JULY SUPPLY AND DEMAND REPORT:
GOOD MORNING I'M BETSY JIBBEN. CLINTON GRIFFITHS JOINS US LATER FROM THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK. GRAIN PRICES EDGED HIGHER TUESDAY AFTER THE AG DEPARTMENT FAILED TO BOOST THE SIZE OF THE CORN AND SOYBEAN CROPS AS MUCH AS ANALYSTS HAD EXPECTED. IN JULY'S SUPPLY-AND-DEMAND REPORT, USDA BUMPED UP 2016-17 CORN AND SOYBEAN PRODUCTION. THE AG DEPARTMENT PEGGED CORN PRODUCTION AT 14-AND-A-HALF BILLION BUSHELS. THAT'S 110-MILLION HIGHER THAN JUNE. YET, THE AGENCY LEFT THE YIELD ESTIMATE UNCHANGED AT 168 BUSHELS AN ACRE. WITH THAT MASSIVE CROP, THE AG DEPARTMENT BOOSTED ENDING STOCKS. LIKEWISE, THE AG DEPARTMENT DIDN'T TOUCH THE SOYBEAN YIELD ESTIMATE. IT'S STILL 46-POINT-SEVEN BUSHELS AN ACRE. HOWEVER, SOYBEAN PRODUCTION WAS BOOSTED BY 80 MILLION BUSHELS. TOTAL PRODUCTION COMES IN AT THREE-POINT EIGHT BILLION BUSHELS. AGAIN, ENDING STOCKS WERE PUSHED HIGHER. WITH CARRYOVER NUMBERS LOWER THAN TRADERS EXPECTED, THE MARKET HAD A BULLISH REACTION.
PROFARMER OPINION:
BUT PRO FARMER EDITOR BRIAN GRETE SAYS WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE WILD CARD. WELL, USDA'S JULY REPORT PROVIDED SOME BULLISH FODDER FOR THE CORN MARKET AS A CARRY OVER NOT ONLY CAME IN LOWER THAN EXPECTATIONS BUT DOWN FROM MONTH AGO THAT WAS A SURPRISE NOW THE QUESTION I THINK MOVING FORWARD IN THE CORN MARKET IS THAT ENOUGH BULLISH FODDER TO OFFSET THE POSITIVE WHETHER THE FAVORABLE WEATHER THAT'S BEING SEEN ACROSS MOST THE CORN BELT AND THAT WE DID SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A RELIEF RALLY IN CORN FUTURES COMING OUT OF THE REPORT BUT I THINK IS REALLY GONNA BE A STRUGGLE, UPHILL BATTLE HERE FOR BULLS WITH THE WEATHER AND IT'S STILL AROUND LESS WE SEE A CHANGE IN THAT WEATHER PATTERN AND YOU KNOW FORECAST RIGHT NOW CALL FOR HOT CONDITIONS BUT NOT OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND THEY CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THAT MEANS IT'S GOING TO DO WHAT THE CORN MARKET DOES FOR THE EDITORS OF PRO FARMER IN CEDAR FALLS IOWA, I'M BRIAN GRETE.
FROM THE CORN BELT:
THANKS BRIAN. BRIAN MENTIONED THE FAVORABLE WEATHER BEING SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CORN BELT. ONE OF THOSE LOCATIONS IS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS RIGHT ALONG INTERSTATE 80. TYNE MORGAN STOPPED NEAR THE TOWN OF SENECA WHERE FARMERS ARE PLEASED, SO FAR, TYNE. THANKS BETSY. WE'RE HERE WITH KEVIN BOUNDS, A FARMER WHO'S JUST NORTH OF SENECA SO WE'RE IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. KEVIN, IT KIND OF LOOKS LIKE WE'RE IN THE GARDEN SPOT THIS YEAR WITH THE CORN BEHIND US. YEAH, WE'VE HAD A VERY FORTUNATE GROWING SEASON SO FAR. OUR CORN CROP, I WOULD CALL IT A GOOD SEASON, A GARDEN SPOT. AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A LOT OF THE CORN TASSELING IN THIS AREA. IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CROPS? ARE THE ARE AT THAT TASSELING STAGE I WOULD SAY THE MAJORITY OF THE CROP IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA. WE ARE PROBABLY TWO-THIRDS INTO POLLINATION. WE'RE ALL INTO IT. SO AT THIS TIME WE WERE LOOKING AT KEY POLLINATION TIME HOW IS WEATHER BEEN, KEVIN?
CORN SILKING PROGRESS:
THE STATE "NASS" OFFICE IN ILLINOIS SAYS 53-PERCENT OF ILLINOIS CORN IS SILKING. THAT'S TEN POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE AND A 31 POINT JUMP OVER LAST WEEK. 76-PERCENT OF THE CROP IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
CROP COMMENTS:
SOME FARMERS ARE FIGHTING DRY CONDITIONS. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS AN UPDATE IN THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. LET'S START OFF BACK IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. A FARMER IN THAT AREA SAYS THE CROPS VARY. HERE ARE PICTURES OF TWO DIFFERENT SOYBEAN FIELDS ON THE SAME COUNTY ROAD. AS YOU CAN SEE, A LOT OF CROP WAS PLANTED LATE. FARMERS SOUTH OF SIOUX FALLS SAY THEY HAVEN'T RECEIVED MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST MONTH. OVER IN ---NEW YORK, PETE KEMMEREN SAYS THE AREA IS DRY AND HAY YIELDS ARE LIGHT. THE US DROUGHT MONITOR SAYS NEARLY 94 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS ABNORMALLY DRY. 41 PERCENT IS EXPERIENCING A MODERATE DROUGHT.
CROP MOISTURE:
AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE CROP MOISTURE YOU CAN ALSO SEE THOSE DRY AREAS IN WESTERN NEW YORK PARTS OF PENNSLYVANIA AND OHIO OTHERWISE THE CORN BELT IS MAINLY FINE IN FACT WET IN SOME SPOTS BUT THE SOUTH EAST WYOMING MONTANA AND MANY PARTS OF THE SOUT WEST HAVE TURNED VERY DRY I'LL HAVE DETAIL IN MY FORECAST COMING UP BUT NOW HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME -WE CONTINUE OUR IN-DEPTH COVERAGE OF USDA'S LATEST GRAIN REPORTS. WE'LL SEE HOW WHEAT MARKETS ARE SHAPING-UP WITH FARM JOURNAL ECONOMIST BOB UTTERBACK. LATER...HOW'S THE GEORGIA PEACH CROP LOOKING THIS SUMMER. OUR PARTNERS AT THE PACKER OFFER THEIR INSIGHT. AND WE SET SAIL "DOWN UNDER" WHERE A CATTLE RANCHER HOPES TO DIVERSIFY HIS OPERATION WITH A QUIRKY IDEA.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS TODAY -THE MARKET HAD PLENTY OF FODDER TO FIGHTTHROUGH AFTER USDA DUMPED A BUNCH OF GRAIN REPORTS. LET'S SEE HOW THINGS CLOSED AT THE CME IN CHICAGO. GRAIN MARKETS HERE IN CHICAGO MOSTLY HIGHER ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING A MONTHLY CROP PRODUCTION AND WASDE REPORT FROM USDA. IF ANYTHING, THE BIGGEST SURPRISE IN THE REPORT WOULD HAVE BEEN SOME OF THE CORN CARRY OUT THE NUMBERS. THEY ARE A LITTLE BIT TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED, AS DID TWO DIFFERENT THINGS ONE THE GOVERNMENT UPPED THEIR PROJECTED CORN EXPORTS AND TWO, THE REDUCTION IN THE FEED AND RESIDUAL USAGE WAS NOT AS BIG AS SOME PEOPLE HAD THOUGHT BASED ON THE STOCKS WE SAW A COUPLE WEEKS AGO. SO A LITTLE BIT FRIENDLY BUT CERTAINLY NOT BULLISH BY ANY MEANS. JOE VACLAVIK WITH STANDARD GRAIN ON THE CME FLOOR.
AGRIBUSINESS:
IN ADDITION TO THE SUPPLY-AND-DEMAND TABLES, USDA ALSO RELEASED THE CURRENT WHEAT PRODUCTION ESTIMATES. THE AG DEPARTMENT PEGS WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION AT ONE-POINT-SIX BILLION BUSHELS, UP EIGHT PERCENT FROM THE JUNE FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS, THE U-S IS ON TRACK TO PRODUCE A RECORD HIGH 54 BUSHELS AN ACRE. THAT'S THREE BUSHELS HIGHER THAN JUNE. AND ELEVEN BUSHELS HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR'S WINTER WHEAT CROP. THE BIG BOOST COMES FROM HARD RED WINTER WHEAT WITH PRODUCTION OVER A BILLION BUSHELS. THOSE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER THAN ANY PRE-REPORT ESTIMATES FROM ANALYSTS. BEFORE THE USDA REPORTS WERE RELEASED, CLINTON GRIFFITHS TALKED WITH FARM JOURNAL ECONOMIST BOB UTTERBACK ABOUT WHEAT MARKETS, DISCUSSING WHETHER FARMERS SHOULD SELL OR STORE.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
AGDAY WEATHER SPONSORED BY YAMAHA'S FULL LINE OF REAL WORLD TOUGH ATV'S AND SIDE BY SIDE VEHICLES. WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, I WENT BACK HOME TO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVER THE WEEKEND AND SOME OF THOSE CROPS ARE IN NEED OF DRINK OF WATER SO YOU THINK THAT AREA WILL GET SOME RAIN HERE THIS WEEK? WELL, WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO WATCH. THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY MOVED PAST THEM SO I THINK WE HAVE TO WAIT ON THE NEXT SYSTEM UNFORTUNATELY. BUT THERE ARE SOME CHANCES DOWN THE ROAD. BUT THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL AGAIN CAUSE SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THE WAY IT LOOKS WE ALSO HAVE THIS LINGERING STATION FROM MID ATLANTIC AREAS THAT WILL CAUSE A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDER FROM MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON YOU CAN SEE OUR COMPUTER MODEL HAS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND YES IT OF COURSE IT IS OUR COMPUTER MODELS AND REMEMBER THAT. IT'S NOT GOING TO BE EXACT ON WHERE THESE THINGS FORM.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. WE'LL HEAD TO WALL, SOUTH DAKOTA FIRST OF ALL, PART OF A MOSTLY SUNNY, MAYBE A SPOTTY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH OF EIGHTY FOUR. WINONA, MISSISSIPPI, SUNSHINE VERY WARM AND HUMID. THE HIGH UP TO 94. AND HARTFORD, CONNECTICUT MOSTLY SUNNY HOT AND HUMID HIGH NEAR NINETY
TEASE:
STILL TO COME WE GET THE LATEST ORANGE PRODUCTION FIGURES. PLUS OUR PARTNERS AT THE PACKER TAKE US TO THE PEACH HARVEST IN GEORGIA. AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A TRANQUIL SCENE -BOATING ON THE OPEN WATER. BUT YOU MAY BE SURPRISED WHERE IT'S FOUND.
ORANGE PRODUCTION PREDICTED TO RISE FROM LAST MONTH:
IN OUR PACKER T-V SEGMENT, THE AG DEPARTMENT SAYS THE ALL ORANGE FORECAST FOR THE 2015-2016 SEASON IS NEARLY SIX MILLION TONS. THAT'S UP TWO PERCENT FROM LAST MONTH. BUT DOWN SEVEN PERCENT FROM THE SAME TIME PERIOD LAST YEAR. FOCUSING ON FLORIDA, ITS ORANGE CROP IS PENCILED IN AT THREE-AND-A-HALF MILLION TONS. THAT'S A DECLINE OF 16-PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. IN CALIFORNIA, THE NAVAL ORANGE CROP IS ONE-POINT-SEVEN MILLION TONS. THAT'S 13-PERCENT HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR.
CONSUMERS WANT TO KNOW WHERE THEIR FOOD COMES FROM:
FOODSERVICE REPRESENTATIVES SAY CUSTOMERS ARE FOCUSING MORE ON WHERE THEIR INGREDIENTS COME FROM. AGAIN, A BIG INTEREST. A LOT OF ETHNIC FOODS ARE GAINING POPULARITY. THOSE TYPICALLY HAVE FRESHER INGREDIENTS WHETHER THEY'RE ORGANIC OR NOT. THOSE TEND TO BE PLANT FORWARD BASED. YOU'LL SEE A LOT OF CHEFS WORK ON MENUS THAT HAVE VEGETABLES NOT JUST AS A SIDE ADDITION BUT CENTER OF THE PLATE. THAT'S NOT JUST FOR VEGETARIANS EITHER. 
BEER CANS WILL LIST NUTRITIONAL FACTS:
LABELS ON U.S. BEERS WILL SOON RECEIVE A FACE-LIFT-BY SHOWING NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION. THE BEER INSTITUTE SAYS THE NATION'S LARGEST BREWERS ARE CHANGING THE BEER LABELS. BY 2020 CONSUMERS WILL KNOW HOW MANY CALORIES AND GRAMS OF CARBS AND PROTEIN ARE IN EACH BOTTLE. ANHEUSER-BUSCH, HEINEKEN USA AND MILLERCOORS PLAN TO LABEL THEIR BEER,
TEASE:
 UP NEXT, WE 'SET SAIL' FOR ONE OF THE DRIEST PLACES IN THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK. IN THE COUNTRY IS NEXT.

IN THE COUNTRY:
IF YOU LIVE ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE, YOU WOULD EXPECT TO SEE YACHTS AND SAILBOATS PLYING THE OPEN SEA. BUT IT'S A BIT STRANGE TO SEE WATERCRAFT "SET SAIL" IN THE OUTBACK! WELCOME TO THE CAMDEN CATTLE RANCH....OR CATTLE STATION AS THEY LIKE TO SAY "DOWN UNDER". THIS RANCH IS PLANNING TO OPEN A YACHT CLUB IN THE HOPES OF ATTRACTING 'BOATIES' TO AN UNUSUAL SETTING. IT'S A LAKE OF SORTS. IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A STOCK-POND...MORE FITTING FOR CATTLE THAN WATER-CRAFT, THIS RANCH IS 750 KILOMETERS FROM THE COAST. TOURISTS VISIT HERE TO GET A TRIP INTO THE OUTBACK. THEY DON'T REALLY COME HERE TO SET SAIL. REGARDLESS THE RANCHER SAYS THE VIEWS ARE SPECTACULAR!
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS, TYNE MORAND AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M BETSY JIBBEN. THURSDAY ON AGDAY - HEAT SETTLES INTO THE MIDWEST. MIKE HOFFMAN WILL HAVE YOUR FARM COUNTRY FORECAST.  AND OUR PARTNERS AT DROVERS WILL HAVE THE LATEST NEWS FROM THE CATTLE SECTOR. WHEN MARKETS MATTER...TUNE IN TO AGDAY.

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