AgDay Daily Recap -July 21, 2016

July 21, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 21, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -I'M BETSY JIBBEN. WELL, ROPS IN NORTHWEST OHIO ARE IN NEED OF WATER. WE'LL HAVE AN UPDATE ON CROPS AND CONDITIOSN AHEAD ON AGDAY." IN AGRIBUSINESS...A HEAT CHECK ON THE STOCK MARKET. SO IF THE STOCK MARKET GOES HIGHER THE U.S. ECONOMY IS REALLY GOING TO KIND OF TAKE OFF AGAIN. PRICING POTENTIAL IS UNDER PRESSURE FOR FALL CALVES. AND MOVE OVER BACON, SCHMACON OR BEEF BACON HOPES TO BE THE NEXT BIG BREAKFAST FOOD.
ROW CROPS IN THE RED:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. SUMMER CROPS MAY BE A LONG WAY FROM HARVEST BUT TRADERS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO PENCIL IN BIG EXPECTATIONS FOR YIELDS. IT WAS ANOTHER DAY IN THE RED FOR MAJOR ROW CROPS AS TRADERS BEGIN TO LOOK AT CROP CONDITIONS AND COMPARE POTENTIAL YIELDS. THAT'S IN SPITE OF THIS WEEK'S HOT TEMPERATURES. WITH RAIN STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST, TRADERS SAY THE 70 PLUS GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION RATINGS FOR BOTH CORN AND BEANS IS AHEAD OF LAST YEAR. STEWART PETERSON'S NAOMI BLOHM SAYS IF THIS CROP IS TRULY BETTER, NATIONAL AVERAGE YEILDS COULD TOP 168 BUSHELS TO THE ACRE ON CORN FOR EXAMPLE. THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH CARRY OVER INTO RECORD TERRITORY. BUT AS HEAT BLANKETS THE CORN BELT THIS WEEK, IT'S DURING THE KEY POLLINATION TIME FOR CROPS.
DROUGHT MONITOR:
FOCUSING ON THE MIDWEST, THE DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWING MOST OF MICHIGAN, MUCH OF IOWA AND A GROWING PERCENTAGE OF OHIO COUNTIES STARTING TO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEW MONITOR COMES OUT IN A FEW HOURS. BUT LAST WEEK'S OHIO MAP SHOWED WORSENING CONDITIONS. NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN TAKES US TO NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE FARMERS ARE LOOKING TO THE SKIES.  REPORTING FOR AGDAY, I'M BETSY JIBBEN.
THANKS BETSY. PERRY SAYS THE CROPS ARE GOING TO BE VARIABLE, EVEN WITHIN HIS COUNTY. HE SAYS OTHER AREAS DELAYED PLANTING MORE.. BOTH SAY DISEASE AND INSECT PRESSURE ARE MINIMAL. IN WORLD NEWS, SEVERAL CHINESE GRAIN AND COMMODITY COMPANIES SAY THEY'RE JOINING FORCES IN ORDER TO COMPETE WITH THE ABCD QUAD OF GLOBAL TRADE. ABCD THAT'S ADM, BUNGE, CARGILL AND LOUIS DREYFUSS. THE THREE CHINESE COMPANIES SET TO MERGE ARE HUGE IN TERMS OF TOTAL VOLUME OF GRAINS TRADED. THEY BUY MORE CORN THAN THE COUNTRY PRODUCES AND IMPORT MORE THAN 30 PERCENT OF ALL SOYBEANS. ANALYSTS SAY THIS SHOWS THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT IS PLANNING TO CONTINUE REDOING STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES THIS YEAR.
GOBS OF GOOBERS EXPECTED:
DOWN SOUTH PEANUT GROWERS ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER BIG CROP. ACCORDING TO USDA, HARVEST THIS FALL COULD TOP 6 BILLION POUNDS...MORE THAN AMERICANS CAN CONSUME. USDA ESTIMATES NEARLY HALF OF THAT CROP IS HEADED FOR STOCKPILES. ACCORDING TO THE CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE, ALL OF THOSE PEANUTS KEEP DRIVING PRICES LOWER RINGING UP 2 BILLION DOLLARS IN SUBSIDY PAYMENTS TO FARMERS BY THE YEAR 2018. THIS IS THE THIRD YEAR IN A ROW PEANUT GROWERS ARE SET TO OUT-PRODUCE DEMAND. ANALYSTS SAY MUCH OF THE INCREASED PRODUCTION IS DUE TO CHANGES TO THE SUPPORT STRUCTURE IN THE LATEST FARM BILL --SPECIFICALLY CHANGES TO COTTON SUPPORTS...AS COTTON GROWERS SWITCH TO THE MORE LUCRATIVE PEANUTS.
ALL OF THE ATTENTION HAS BEEN ON MONSANTO AND BAYER LATELY BUT THE MERGER BETWEEN DOW AND DUPONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FORWARD. SHAREHOLDERS FROM BOTH COMPANIES MET THIS WEEK AND ACCORDING TO A DUPONT STATEMENT, STOCKHOLDERS FROM BOTH COMPANIES APPROVED THE DEAL. THAT KEEPS THE MERGER MOVING FORWARD WITH REGULATORY APPROVAL STILL PENDING. THE COMBINED 130 BILLION DOLLAR COMPANY IS SET TO DIVVY UP THE BUSINESS IN THREE SEPARATE ENTITIES INCLUDING A STAND ALONE AG BUSINESS. DOW DUPONT EXPECTS THE MERGER TO BE APPROVED BY THE END OF THIS CALENDAR YEAR. 
CROP COMMENTS:
LET'S CHECK IN WITH MIKE HOFFMAN FOR THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. MIKE. GOOD MORNING CLINTON. FROM THE STATE "NASS" OFFICE IN MISSISSIPPI, A CROP REPORTER IN GRENADA COUNTY SAYS A SIGNIFICANT SECTION OF THE COUNTY HAS NOT GOTTEN ANY RAIN. CORN SILAGE IS STARTING TO DRY EARLY AND IT DOES NOT HAVE AN EAR ON EVERY STALK. IF A SUMMER VACATION TAKES YOU TO GETTYSBURG, YOU MAY SEE SOME FIELD CROPS STARTING TO LOOK DRY. A "NASS" CROP REPORTER FROM ADAMS COUNTY SAYS THE GETTYSBURG AREA SAW ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN LAST WEEK. CORN AND SOYBEAN CROPS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRESS, AND WE HEARD FROM MINNESOTA FARMER SHAWN GAPPA. THEIR FIELDS GOT HIT LAST WEEK WITH PING-PONG SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGED SOME OF THE CROP. AS WE'VE BEEN REPORTING, MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS A VERY GOOD CORN CROP RIGHT NOW. AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP YOU CAN SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WE’LL LET YOU KNOW WHERE THE RAIN IS PROBABLY GOING TO FALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COMING UP IN A FEW MINUTES BUT NOW HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS.
TEASE:
NEXT ON AGDAY -WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE STOCK MARKET. MIKE FLOREZ OF FLOREZ TRADING OFFERS HIS INSIGHT. FROM OUR PARTNERS AT DROVERS -IT APPEARS BIG SUPPLIES OF RED MEAT ARE GETTING EVEN BIGGER. WHAT DOES THAT DO FOR PRICES FOR PRODUCERS? AND THE BEEF INDUSTRY TRIES TO FIND SPACE IN THE MEAT CASE FOR ITS VERSION OF A VERY POPULAR BREAKFAST FOOD.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:

IT WAS A TOUGH DAY IN TRADE TUESDAY. LETS SEE HOW MARKETS SHAPED UP WEDNESDAY FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. WEDNESDAY'S GRAIN TRADE, MOMMA SAID THERE WAS GOING TO BE DAYS LIKE THIS AND WOW. THIS IS A PRETTY UGLY DAY. THAT'S ESPECIALLY IN WHEAT. IN WHEAT WE'VE SEEN THE BLOW-OFF BOTTOM. THIS MIGHT BE A NICE PANIC BOTTOM. I'M LOOKING TO BE A BUYER WITH DEC WHEAT. AGAIN, I BOUGHT SOME ALREADY. I'M A LITTLE UNDER WATER MYSELF, BUT I THINK THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY HERE TO LOOK GOOD AND BUY IN HERE. I THINK CORN IS NEXT. BEANS ARE ALMOST AT OUR 10 DOLLAR OBJECTIVE AND THEN I'LL START TO LOOK TO BE A BUYER OF BEANS AS WELL. I THINK THIS ACTION IS FINE. I KNOW AS A FARMER AND PRODUCER, IT'S NOT FINE. THAT'S BECAUSE YOU'RE NOT HAPPY ABOUT IT. BUT REMEMBER, YOU'RE NOT SELLING TODAY. LET THE PRICES DO THEIR THING. YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF COMMERCIALS TRYING TO DESTROY THIS MARKET AFTER BEING LONG THIS MARKET. SO, THEY'RE TRYING TO SPECULATE AROUND. AT THE END OF THE DAY, I THINK YOU'LL FIND SOME NICE SUPPORT DOWN THERE. THIS IS TODD BUBBA HOROWITZ FROM BUBBA TRADING.COM COMING TO YOU FROM THE CME.
AGRIBUSINESS DESK:
MIKE FLOREZ, FLOREZ TRADING, OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK TODAY. MIKE, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE STOCK MARKET. EVEN WITH EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON IN THE WORLD, STOCKS KIND OF BEEN ON FIRE, SETTING NEW HIGHS. IT'S BEEN A QUIET MARKET. WE'VE BEEN GOING SIDEWAYS FOR TWO YEARS. EVERYBODY IS GOING TO THE SIDELINES. THEY'VE GOTTEN OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET BECAUSE IT'S TOO RISKY. SO THEY GO INTO BONDS WHICH GIVES THEM NO YIELD. YOU KNOW 1/3 OF THE DEBT ISSUED BY GOVERNMENTS IN THE WORLD, ARE IN NEGATIVE LEVELS NOW. THAT'S HOW CRAZY PEOPLE ARE GOING TO THE SIDELINES. THEY THINK THE STOCK MARKET IS RISKY BUT NEGATIVE RATES, I GUESS THEY ARE NOT RISKY. PEOPLE HAVE GONE TO WHAT THEY THINK IS FIGHT TO QUALITY. IF THE STOCK MARKET GOES HIGHER, ALL OF THAT IS GOING TO UNWIND.THAT'S GOING TO CREATE MORE CHANGES WITHIN THE MARKET PLACE.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
HI, WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY, HERE WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND IT HAS BEEN HOT IN PLACES. YEA NO DOUBT. HERE AND HUMIDITY RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS SOME RELIEF COMING FOR A MOST NORTHERN AREAS WILL TALK ABOUT THAT COMING UP. BUT THE HEAT IS THE BIG DEAL RIGHT NOW IT IS COVERING MOST OF THE MID SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. A BIG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BIGGER RIDGES YOU'LL SEE IN THE JET STREAM COMING UP AND THAT'S TAMPING DOWN THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT YOU TYPICALLY GET ALONG A WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT. NOW THERE WILL BE SOME SPOT PROBABLY BUT I DON'T SEE DOING WIDESPREAD ACCORDING OUR COMPUTER MODEL.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FRESNO CALIFORNIA TODAY SUNNY AND QUITE HOT, HIGH TEMP OF NINETY EIGHT. SAINT PAUL MINNESOTA HAZY SUNSHINE HOT AND HUMID HIGH OF NINETY SIX AND COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA PARTLY SUNNY AND HOT MAY BE A SPOTTY AFTERNOON STORM HIGH NINETY FOUR. UP NEXT WE'LL CHECK ON CATTLE MARKETS AND WHAT CALF SELLERS NEED TO BE WATCHING FOR COME FALL. BACON IS A HOT CULINARY TREND RIGHT NOW. BUT WHAT IF PORK IS REPLACED BY BEEF? SCHMACON IS "MAKIN' AN APPEARANCE IN THE KITCHEN...LATER ON AGDAY.
DROVER’S TV REPORT:
FEEDERS MAKING 27 DOLLARS PER HEAD LAST WEEK. THAT'S DOWN ABOUT 6 BUCKS FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK. USDA 5 AREA CASH PRICE AVERAGED 117 DOLLARS PER HUNDRED. FEEDERS SAY THEY CONTINUE TO WATCH THE CASH AND FUTURE'S PRICE SPREAD. IF WE COULD GET THE FUTURES TO COME BACK UP CLOSE TO CASH, AND CASH TO STAY IN THE 1.20 TO 1.25, ON OUR END, WE'LL BE DOING PRETTY GOOD FOR THE FEEDLOT. IT DEPENDS WHERE THE FUTURES GO FROM HERE ON OUT. THAT MAY BE TOUGH... SUMMER SHIPMENTS OF CATTLE ARE ALREADY IN FULL SWING. DROVERS EDITOR GREG HENDERSON SAYS YEARLINGS FROM THE KANSAS FLINT HILLS ARE SHOWING UP IN FEEDYARDS WITH AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE GAINS THIS YEAR. HE EXPECTS THAT TO ADD TO U.S. RED MEAT AND POULTRY PRODUCTION ALREADY RUNNING AT RECORD LEVELS...
BRAZILIAN BEEF:
THE U.S. DOESN'T BRING IN FRESH BEEF FROM BRAZIL BUT DOES PURCHASE A LOT OF PROCESSED PRODUCTS LIKE CANNED CORNED BEEF. U.S. PURCHASES FROM BRAZIL TOTALED $27.6 MILLION IN JUNE, WHICH MEANS AMERICA IS NOW ONE OF THE BIGGEST BEEF BUYERS FROM BRAZIL. THEY'RE EXPECTED TO GO HIGHER AFTER THE COUNTRIES SIGN A FORMAL AGREEMENT TO AUTHORIZE FRESH BEEF TRADE, WHICH COULD HAPPEN THIS YEAR.
TEASE:
BEFORE YOU THROW SOMETHING IN THE SKILLET THIS MORNING, LET US TELL YOU ABOUT A NEW PROTEIN ALTERNATIVE FOR THE BREAKFAST TABLE. THAT'S NEXT ON AGDAY.
IN THE COUNTRY:
IF YOU'RE GETTING READY TO COOK BREAKFAST, WE HAVE A NEW OPTION FOR YOU. IT'S CALLED SCHMACON! IT'S THE BEEF INDUSTRY'S ANSWER TO THE CONSUMER FAVORITE -BACON. SCHMACON -OR BEEF BACON -WAS LAUNCHED LAST YEAR. A DELI OWNER IN A CHICAGO SUBURB CAME-UP WITH THE PRODUCT. AND IT'S STARTING TO TAKE OFF. SCHMACON COMES FROM THE UNDER BELLY OF CATTLE. USUALLY THAT BEEF CUT IS GROUND-UP. THE INVENTOR FOUND A WAY TO NATURALLY CURE THE MEAT, ELIMINATING NITRITES FROM THE PRODUCT. THE COMPANY SAYS SCHMACON HAS LOWER FAT, SODIUM AND CALORIES THAN TRADITIONAL BACON. THE FOLKS AT CERTIFIED ANGUS BEEF SAY SCHMACON IS A NEW OPPORTUNITY FOR BEEF PRODUCERS.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR BETSY JIBBEN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. FRIDAY ON AGDAY THE MARKET EXPERTS AT PRO FARMER JOIN US WITH THE WEEKLY PROFIT BRIEFING. MIKE HOFFMAN TRACKS THE SUMMER HEAT DURING THE CORN POLLINATION. AND A GREAT AMEIRCAN BARN. WATCH US WEEKDAYS HERE ON AGDAY.

 

 

 

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