AgDay Daily Recap -July 23, 2015

August 25, 2015 02:57 AM
 
TODAY ON AGDAY -WHEAT CONDITIONS IN THE MIDWEST AS SOME REGIONS STRUGGLES WITH WET FIELD CONDITIONS. IN AGRIBUSINESS...THE FEAR I HAVE GOING FORWARD IS GUYS ARE GOING TO START SAYING WELL THIS MARKETING STUFFS NOT WORTH THE EFFORT I'M GOING TO FOCUS STRICTLY ON PRODUCTION AND I'M GOING TO GO BACK TO THE GRAMPA STRATEGY. PLUS THE NUTRITIONAL BENEFITS OF SOYBEAN HULLS AND BUILDING A BETTER PAST TIME--A MICHIGAN THINKS HE'S FOUND IT BY COMBINING FOOTBALL AND BOWLING. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO. GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE PUSHING WHEAT CROPS ALONG. BUT IT'S ALSO TAKING YIELD OFF THE TOP FOR CANADIAN FARMERS. IT'S "GO TIME" FOR WINTER WHEAT GROWERS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AND FOR MANY, IT'S AN EARLY START TO THE HARVEST. STARTING IN MONTANA, 12-PERCENT OF THEIR WINTER WHEAT CROP IS HARVESTED. IT'S USUALLY THREE PERCENT. NEARLY HALF OF THE OREGON CROP IS HARVESTED. THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE IS 12-PERCENT.. WASHINGTON STATE IS A THIRD COMPLETED. IT'S ALSO USUALLY IN SINGLE DIGITS. IDAHO IS ELEVEN PERCENT. IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEARLY ALL OF SPRING WHEAT IS HEADED. AND MOST OF THE CROP SHOWS A LOT OF POTENTIAL ACCORDING TO THE AG DEPARTMENT. 83-PERCENT OF THE MINNESOTA CROP AND 82PERCENT OF NORTH DAKOTA SPRING WHEAT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. BUT AS YOU HEAD WEST, THE CONDITION DROPS OFF. WESTERN OHIO CORN AND SOYBEAN FARMERS ARE BATTLING A VERY WET GROWING SEASON, LIMITING THE MATURITY OF SOME OF THE CROP. BUT THEY'RE NOT THE ONLY FARMERS HAVING A HARD TIME. THE WET CONDITIONS HAVE CREATED SOME QUALITY AND HARVEST ISSUES FOR SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT GROWERS. AGDAY'S BETSY JIBBEN HAS THE STORY. THE GOLDEN FIELDS ARE GOOD AND READY BUT THIS YEAR THERE'S A LOT OF THING GOING AGAINST THE SOFT WINTER WHEAT CROP. GROWER, KENT EDDY GOT A START ON HARVEST LATE LAST WEEK BUT RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND PUSHED HIM OUT OF THE FIELDS AGAIN. "THIS WHEAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN OFF RIGHT BEFORE THE FOURTH OF JULY. BUT THE WEATHER HASN'T PERMITTED IT," ACCORDING TO USDA'S CROP PROGRESS REPORT FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 19TH, 56-PERCENT OF OHIO'S WINTER WHEAT IS HARVESTED, THAT'S 35 POINTS BEHIND THE 5-YEAR AVERAGE. (5 YEAR AVERAGE IS 91 PERCENT) IN THE BUCKEYE STATE, 31-PERCENT IS RANKED GOOD, WITH ONLY 6-PERCENT EXCELLENT. "FARMERS IN THE AREA ARE NOT ONLY STILL BATTLING WET CONDITIONS BUT ALSO SOME QUALITY ISSUES AS WELL," "I THINK THE OLD ADAGE, 'RAIN MAKES GRAIN' DOESN'T NECESSARILY DO THAT IN OHIO. INSTEAD, IT MAKES DISEASE," FIGHTING RAIN DROPS THE CROP IS TAKING A HITLOWER TEST WEIGHTS, SPROUTING, HEAD SCAB AND VOMITOXIN ALL IN THE SAME YEAR. "I SAY ONE OUT OF THE FIVE YEARS WE HAVE A LITTLE VOMITOX PROBLEM BUT I DON'T REMEMBER ALL THREE IN THE SAME YEAR," REX WILLIAMSON OF WILLIAMSON INSURANCE IN PAYNE, OHIO SAYS VOMITOXINS NEED TO BE DOCUMENTED PROPERLY. IT'S A DIFFERENT STORY, IF IT GOES IN THE BIN. "WITH CROP INSURANCE AND VOMITOXIN, IT HAS TO BE MORE THAN 2 PARTS PER MILLION BEFORE IT IS CONSIDERED A PROBLEM. MOST ELEVATORS GO WITH THAT TOO. IF IT'S OVER 10 PARTS PER MILLION, THEN IT'S HOW ARE WE GOING TO DEAL WITH THIS SITUATION?" EVEN WHILE CRAWLING THROUGH HARVEST, EDDY SAYS HE'S RUNNING AT 3-POINT-7 PARTS PER MILLION. HE EXPECTED HIGHER LEVELS AND SOME PLACES ARE SEEING THEM. "VOMITOXIN WERE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 12. ONCE YOU GET ABOVE 10, THEY DON'T WANT IT," "IT'S EVEN STATED IN THE POLICY, IF YOU HAVE TO HAUL AN EXTRA DISTANCE AT SOME POINT, THE POLICY WILL ACCOMINDATE YOU ON THAT. IF THE WHEAT IS OF NO USE AND IT'S EXPOSED TO TOXINS, SUBSTANCES THAT ARE HARMFUL, IT WILL HAVE TO BE DESTROYED. IT NEEDS TO BEFORE AN INDEMNITY CAN EVEN BE PAID ON IT WHEN WE GET TO THE EXTREME EXAMPLES," "I DON'T SEE ANY PINK BUT THIS WOULD ALL BE DAMAGED," EDDY SAYS HE'S ALREADY BEEN DOC'ED AROUND AHDOLLAR FOR SOME QUALITY ISSUES BUTJUST HOW BAD AND HOW WIDE-SPREAD THE PROBLEM IS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL FIELDS DRY OUT AND COMBINES GET BUSY. REPORTING IN GROVER HILL, OHIO, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. THANKS BETSY. NOW EDDY SAYS DESPITE THE ISSUES, HE THINKS THE WHEAT YIELD IS ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 90 BUSHEL PER ACRE, BUT HE'S SEEN TEST WEIGHTS RANGING FROM 50 TO 58 POUNDS. WITH SUN IN THE FORECAST, THEY HOPE TO KNOW MORE AT THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE DROUGHT IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS PUSHING THE FARM MINISTRY TO LOWER PRODUCTION ESTIMATES ON ITS WHEAT CROP. THE AG MINISTRY'S JULY FORECAST PEGS ALL CANADIAN WHEAT AT 27-AND-A-HALF MILLION METRIC TONNES. THAT'S DOWN FROM 29 MILLION JUST ONE MONTH EARLIER. NORTH TO SOUTH, SUMMER HARVEST IS IN FULL SWING. LETS TAKE A LOOK WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. HE HAS THIS MORNING'S CROPWATCH. MIKE. GOOD MORNING CLINTON. CROPWATCH TAKES US TO ELKHART COUNTY INDIANA THAT'S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CORRIDOR. BETSY JIBBEN SNAPPED THESE PHOTOS NEAR THE TOWN OF WAKARUSA. THIS FIRST ONE SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD LOOKING FIELD OF SOYBEANS. THAT SEEMS TO BE THE EXCEPTION HOWEVER. THIS LOW SPOT IN THE FIELD IS A COMMON SITE IN CENTRAL INDIANA. USDA'S CROP PROGRESS REPORT SAYS 40-PERCENT OF THE INDIANA CROP IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. ANOTHER THIRD IS JUST FAIR. IN MONTANA, SMALL GRAINS ARE ADVANCING QUICKLY. "NASS" SAYS 65-PERCENT OF BARLEY IS TURNING, THAT'S 40 POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE. HALF OF THE CANOLA CROP HAS TURNED. THAT'S 30 POINTS AHEAD. AND NEARLY ALL OF DURUM WHEAT HAS HEADED. IT'S USUALLY AROUND 50-PERCENT. AND IF YOU'RE TRAVELING THROUGH GEORGIA, THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF PRODUCE AT ROADSIDE STANDS. NEARLY 90-PERCENT OF BLUEBERRIES AND 84PERCENT OF THE STATE'S FAMED PEACHES HAVE BEEN HARVESTED. AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE WEATHER MAP YOU CAN SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT'S HEADING INTO THE SOUTH EAST I'LL HAVE YOUR FORECAST COMING UP IN JUST A LITTLE WHILE LATER TODAY, THE U.S. HOUSE IS EXPECTED TO VOTE ON H-R 15-99...THE SAFE AND ACCURATE FOOD LABELING ACT OF 2015. IT SETS A FEDERAL STANDARD FOR LABELING FOODS WITH GMO INGREDIENTS...IN TURN PREEMPTING STATE LAWS. WASHINGTON WATCHERS SAY THE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITH BIPARTISON SUPPORT. MEANWHILE, A COALITION OF NEARLY 500 GROUPS ARE PLEDGING THEIR SUPPORT FOR THE BILL. THE GROUP RELEASING A LETTER CALLING ON HOUSE MEMBERS TO VOTE FOR THE BILL. OF COURSE NOT EVERYONE IS ON BOARD. THE NATIONAL FARMERS UNION AND THE ORGANIC TRADE ASSOCIATION OPPOSE THE BILL. SENATOR JOHN HOEVEN OF NORTH DAKOTA IS WORKING ON A SIMILAR BILL FOR THE SENATE. THERE'S NO WORD ON WHEN THEY MIGHT TAKE THAT UP. IS MARKETING A CROP AHEAD OF TIME WORTH THE EFFORT? BOB UTTERBACK TAKES A STAB AT ANSWERING THAT QUESTION TODAY ON IN THE COUNTRY. AND LATER, A MICHIGAN MAN IS HOPING A LITTLE CREATIVITY COULD LEAD TO A NEW CAREER AND A NEW NATIONAL PAST TIME. THE SPORT OF FOWLING TODAY ON IN THE COUNTRY. ************************************************************** IN AGRIBUSINESS COMMODITIES HAVING A TOUGH TIME ON WEDNESDAY. LETS GET DETAILS FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME.S WHERE ARE WE? INTERESTING. WE HAD A 92 CENT RALLY IN CORN. WE'RE ALMOST HALFWAY BACK. THE HALF WAY POINT BETWEEN THE CONTRACT LOW 3.62 AND THE RECENT ONE YEAR HIGH WE HAD JUST A COUPLE WEEKS AGO, IT WAS A 92 CENT RALLY FROM 3.62 TO 4.54. HALF WAY BACK IS 4.08 AND A QUARTER SO TODAY'S LOW WAS 4.10. A LOT OF TECHNICAL TRADERS HAVE THAT 4.08 LEVEL AND CERTAINLY 4 DOLLARS IN THEIR TARGET, WE'LL SEE HOW THAT PLAYS OUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOVING ONTO SOYBEANS, NOW SOYBEANS HAD A CONTRACT HIGH OF 10.45. SO THIS 10 DOLLAR LEVEL IS A LEVEL WHERE GUYS WILL TAKE A BREATHER TO SEE WHAT'S GOING ON. IS THERE SUPPORT BELOW? ABSOLUTELY. THERE'S SUPPORT AT 9.90, SUPPORT AT 9.80, AND THEN HALF WAY BACK WILL BE 9.70 THOSE TECHNICAL AREAS ARE KEY. FINISHING OUR FRIDAY, REALLY SOME VOLATILE TRADE. WE HAD LIVE HOGS LIMIT UP, AND IT LOOKED LIKE WE WERE GOING TO BE HIGHER IN CATTLE BOTH THE FATS AND FEEDERS BUT WE FELL OUT OF BED THERE TO SELL LOWER AS WELL. FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME, THIS IS CHRIS ROBINSON. HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK THIS MORNING IS BOB UTTERBACK UTTERBACK MARKETING BOB LET'S TALK ABOUT WHERE WE STAND RIGHT NOW WE JUST DON'T KNOW A LOT ABOUT HOW BAD OR HOW GOOD THE CROP IT REALLY IS.>> AND THE FARMER THAT HAS DONE NOTHING HAS BEEN REWARDED BECAUSE I CALL IT THE GRAMPA STRATEGY PRODUCE IT PUT IT IN THE BIG STORE IT TILL NEXT YEAR AND SELL IT WHEN I NEED MONEY WHERE AS THE MARKETER THAT TRIES TO WORK A BUDGET HAS BEEN YOU KNOW IF YOU AS FLEXIBLE HE'S HE'S HAD TO DO A LOT OF WORK YOU SOMETIMES WONDER IF IT'S REWARDING AND THE FEAR I HAVE GOING FORWARD IS GUYS ARE GOING TO START SAYING WELL THIS MARKETING STUFFS NOT WORTH THE EFFORT I'M GOING TO FOCUS STRICTLY ON PRODUCTION AND I'M GOING TO GO BACK TO THE GRAMPA STRATEGY BUT WE'RE MOVING IN, I WOULD ARGUE, INTO A TIME PERIOD OF CONTINUED ANXIETY AND UNCERTAINTY IN THIS MARKET PLACE.>> NOW WHY DO YOU SAY THAT WHAT DO YOU MEAN?>> I WOULD ARGUE THE WORLD IS NOT GOING TO BE SAFER IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS THAN THE PAST I WOULD SAY THE IRAN SITUATION IS THE CONFLICT IN THE MID EAST IS NOT GOING TO GET SAFER WE'RE NOT GOING TO START SINGING KUBYYA EVERYBODY HAPPEN THAT'S GOING TO BE A PROBLEM I WOULD SAY THE FEDERAL DEFICIT BOTH THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA AND EUROPE IS STILL GOING TO BE A PROBLEM SO THERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF CURRENCY RELATIONSHIPS I THINK THE OLDER POPULATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES EUROPE WE'VE GOT A LOT OF PEOPLE RETIRING AT MY AGE IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS RETIRING AND AS WE RETIRE WE ARE HIGH WAGE EARNER RETIRING BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE'RE GOING TO DEMAND MORE SERVICES FROM OUR GOVERNMENT THAT MEANS SOMEBODIES GOT TO PAY FOR SO IN THE FEDERAL DEFICT ALREADY HIGH SO THERE'S A LOT MACRO FUNDAMENTALS THAT ARE I THINK CIRCULATING WE JUST DON'T KNOW WHAT THE ANSWER TO AND THEN IF YOU THROW A LITTLE WEATHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS MR. OBAMA BELIEVES WE'RE GOING TO GO INTO A PERIOD OF GLOBAL WARMING I THINK WE'RE GOING MORE OF A CLIMATE CHANGE BUT BE MORE OF A MORE RELATED TO THE SUN ACTIVITY BUT BOTTOM LINE WE'VE GOT WEATHER UNPREDICTABILITY BE A VARIABLE WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH AND YOU PUT THAT ALL TOGETHER KNOWING EXACTLY WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO DO WHEN THE MARKET OFFERS YOU A PROFIT AND A GOOD PROFIT I THINK YOU AS A FARMER HAVE TO DEFEND THAT PROFIT AND HAVE FLEXIBILITY TO ADJUST TO THE MARKET IF EVENTS CHANGE DOWN THE WAY WE CANNOT PREDICT WITH GREAT CLAITY NINE TEN MONTHS AWAY BUT WHEN THE MARKET OFFERS ME TWNETY THIRTY PERCENT OVER RETURN INVESTMENT I THINK HISTORICALLY SAYS YOUR NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO KEEP THAT. >> ALRIGHT GOOD ADVICE BOB THANKS FOR BEING HERE WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE AGDAY RIGHT AFTER THIS. (TO TALK WITH BOB ONE-ON-ONE, CALL UTTERBACK MARKETING SERVICES, TOLL FREE AT 800-832-1488) CORN AND BEAN PRICES ARE 'TOPPY'. WE'LL TALK ABOUT WHERE PRICES ARE HEADED AND WHEN THEY MIGHT PUSH HIGHER IN THE PROFARMER PROFIT BRIEFING FRIDAY ON AGDAY. ***************************************************************** (AGRICULTURE'S NATIONAL FORECAST IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY KAWASAKI AND THE NEW MULE PRO-FX. KAWASAKI'S FASTEST, MOST POWERFUL MULE EVER.)

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