AgDay Daily Recap -July 31, 2017

July 31, 2017 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JULY 31, 2017


HEADLINES
JAPAN TURNS A COLD SHOULDER ON U-S BEEF, SPIKING  TARIFFS ON FROZEN BEEF. BUT HOW BIG OF A BITE WILL  THIS TAKE OUT OF EXPORTS TO JAPAN? <IT ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT 42 PERCEN TOF HTE FORZEN BEEF WE SEND TO JAPAN. SO THAT'S A CONCERN. >CHINA IS HUNGRY FOR U-S RICE, GIVING PRODUCERS  HOPES OF HIGHER PRICES IN THE MONTHS AHEAD.  MIKE HOFFMAN GIVES US A PEAK OF HARVEST  WEATHER WITH HIS 90 DAY. AND  NATIVE CRITTER FROM DOWN UNDER IS ON THE  VERGE IF DISAPEARING, BUT THERE ARE EFFORTS TO  REVIVE THE RARE BREED. AGDAY-BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO.

JAPAN’S TARIFFS ON U.S. BEEF
GOOD MORNING I'M TYNE MORGAN IN FOR CLINTON  GRIFFITHS. THE BIGGEST IMPORTER OF U-S BEEF IS  SLAPPING ADDITIONAL TARIFFS ON FROZEN BEEF  COMING INTO ITS PORTS. JAPAN'S FINANCE MINISTER ANNOUNCING FRIDAY THAT  THE COUNTRY IS IMPOSING EMERGENCY TARIFFS ON  IMPORTS OF FROZEN BEEF.  MOST OF THOSE  SHIPMENTS COME FROM THE U-S.. THE TARIFF GOES FROM 38-AND-A HALF TO NOW FIFTY  PERCENT. . UNDER WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION RULES, JAPAN  CAN INTRODUCE SAFEGUARD TARIFFS WHEN IMPORTS  RISE MORE THAN 17 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR IN ANY  GIVEN QUARTER. BETSY JIBBEN IS FOLLOWING THIS NEWS STORY FOR  US. WHAT ARE YOU HEARING FROM THE BEEF  INDUSTRY?  TYNE, THE U.S. BEEF INDUSTRY IS VERY UPSET ABOUT  THIS NEWS NOT ONLY BECAUSE JAPAN IS THE TOP  EXPORT MARKET FOR U-S BEEF IN BOTH VOLUME AND  VALUE. IN UNWELCOME NEWS FOR AMERICAN FARMERS, JAPAN SAID FRIDAY  THAT IT WAS IMPOSING EMERGENCY TARIFFS OF 50 PERCENT ON IMPORTS  OF FROZEN BEEF, MAINLY FROM THE U.S. FINANCE MINISTER TARO ASO ANNOUNCED THE MOVE FRIDAY, SAYING  HE WAS PREPARED TO EXPLAIN THE DECISION TO THE U.S. SIDE. "THE TARIFF WILL TAKE EFFECT AUTOMATICALLY AS THE VOLUME OF THE  IMPORTED US FROZEN BEEF EXCEEDED THE QUOTA SET BY LAW," ASO  SAID, "SO THIS IS WHAT HAS TO BE DONE." JAPAN'S BEEF FARMERS ARE FAMED FOR THEIR LUSCIOUS MARBLED KOBE  BEEF AND OTHER DELICACIES, AND THE GOVERNMENT HAS LONG USED  TARIFFS AND OTHER MEASURES TO PROTECT ITS FARMERS FROM FOREIGN  COMPETITION. STILL, PRICES FOR IMPORTED BEEF TEND TO BE HALF OR LESS  THOSE FOR BEEF FROM DOMESTICALLY-RAISED CATTLE. THE U.S. AND AUSTRALIA ACCOUNT FOR 90 PERCENT OF ALL IMPORTS OF  FROZEN BEEF, WHICH IS MOSTLY USED BY BEEF BOWL, HAMBURGER AND  OTHER FAST FOOD OUTLETS. LEADERS SAY IT WILL LIMIT GROWTH AND HAVE AN  IMPACT ON U-S EXPORTS, ESPECIALLY YEAR-END  SALES.  BY AUGUST FIRST, THE U.S. CANADA AND NEW ZEALAND  WILL SEE A TARIFF HIKE ON FROZEN BEEF PRODUCTS  FROM 38-POINT-5 PERCENT TO 50 PERCENT THROUGH  MARCH 31 ST.  ABOUT HALF OF THE BEEF THE U-S SENDS TO JAPAN IS  FROZEN. INDUSTRY LEADERS SAY THE ADDED TARIFF PUTS THE  U-S AT A FURTHER DISADVANTAGE WITH COUNTRIES  WHO HAVE FREE-TRADE AGREEMENTS WITH JAPAN - LIKE AUSTRALIA, MEXICO AND CHILLE - COUNTRIES WITH  MUCH SMALLER TARIFF NUMBERS. THE U.S. WILL HAVE A SEPARATE SAFEGUARD TARIFF  ON ITS FRESH AND CHILLED BEEF AS WELL.  <"6:19 WHAT THIS DOES, IT PUTS A CEILING ON OUR LEVEL OF EXPORTS.  WE WERE PREFORMING SO WELL THE FIRST QUARTER. PEOPLE WILL BE  WATCHING CLOSELY WITH THE NEXT TWO QUARTERS AT LEAST. 24 -TAKE OUT  MIDDLE - 39 BUT THE IMPACT WILL BE FELT THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO, IT'S  NOT GOING TO IMMEDIATE. 45">SENG SAYS IT TOOK AUSTRALIA AND EUROPE AROUND 5  YEARS TO DRAFT A FREE-TRADE AGREEMENT WITH  JAPAN. AND THERE'S NO QUICK FIX. . PRESIDENT TRUMP WITHDREW THE U-S FROM THE  TRANS PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP IN FAVOR OF A BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT. SENG   SAYS THE T-P-P WOULD HAVE LOWERED BEEF TARIFFS  TO NINE PERCENT OVER TIME. <"I WOULDN'T COUNT ON CHINA SO MUCH RIGHT NOW. I THINK WE'VE GOT  A WAYS TO GO WITH CHINA BUT OUR EXPORTS TO SOUTH KORA AND HONG  KONG HAS BEEN STRONG THIS YEAR AS WELL AS TO JAPAN. WE HAVE  MARKETS WE'RE DOING QUITE WELL IN."> <"FROM MY PERSONAL STANDPOINT, MY SUGGESTION WOULD BE GO TO  BACK AND LOOK AT TPP AND SEE IF THERE'S SOME WAY WE CAN GET  BACK IN THERE. MAYBE THERE'S AN AMENDMENTS TO IT BUT IF WE CAN  GET BACK INTO TPP, AND THE LAST RESORT WOULD BE THE F-T-A WHICH  WOULD TAKE A LOT LONGER."> TYNE THE INTERESTING THIS ABOUT THIS SITUATION IS  THAT SENG SAYS THE U-S EXCEEEDED THE EXPORT  LEVELS - WHICH TRIGGERED JAPAN'S TARIFF  SAFEGUARD - BY 113-METRIC TONS THAN ONE- TENTH OF A PERCENT. AND BETSY, IT SOUNDS LIKE THE BEEF INDUSTRY DIDN'T GET MUCH NOTICE ON THIS. NOT AT ALL TYNE AS IT GOES INTO EFFECT AS EARLY AS THIS WEEK.  . OKAY, THANKS BETSY. US-MEF SAYS THIS WILL HURT THE JAPANESE BUYERS  AND RESTURANTS AND CUSTOMERS. THE NATIONAL CATTLEMEN'S BEEF ASSOCIATION  AGREES. NCBA PRESIDENT CRAIG UDEN SAYS -  QUOTING NOW - "NOBODY WINS IN THIS SITUATION. OUR  PRODUCERS LOSE ACCESS, AND BEEF BECOMES A LOT  MORE EXPENSIVE FOR JAPANESE CONSUMERS." UDEN CALLS THE INCREASED TARIFF AN ARTIFICIAL  BARRIER AND ILLUSTRATES THE NEED FOR A  BILATERIAL TRADE AGREEMENT WITH JAPAN. THIS GOES ALONG WITH NCBA REACTING TO THE  SITUATION SAYING - QUOTING NOW - NOBODY WINS IN  THIS SITUATION. OUR PRODUCERS LOSE ACCESSA ND  BEEF BECOMES A LOT MORE EXPENSIVE FOR JAPANESE  CONSUMERS- END QUOTE.  USDA SECRETARY SONNY PERDUE SAYS THE  ADDITIONAL TARIFF ON FROZEN BEEF WILL "LIKELY  INCREASE THE UNITED STATES' OVERALL TRADE  DEFICIT WITH JAPAN.  THIS WOULD HARM OUR  IMPORTANT BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONSHIP WITH  JAPAN ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS. " WHILE FRUSTRATIONS ARE FLYING OVER JAPAN'S  DECISON, U-S BEEF PRODUCERS ARE HAPPY OFFICIALS  SECURED CHINA AS A NEW BUYER, EVEN IF IT MAY TAKE  TIME FOR CHINA'S APPETITE FOR U-S BEEF TO GROW. 

RABOBANK HAY DEMAND
AND IT'S INTERNATIONAL DEMAND FROM CHINA  CHANGING THE GAME FOR U-S HAY PRODUCTION. RABOBANK RELEASING A NEW REPORT, SHOWING  GLOBAL DEMAND FOR U-S HAY IS EASING THE  OVERSUPPLY PRODUCERS FACED IN 2015 AND 2016.   AND AS DEMAND CONTINUES TO CLIMB, RABOBANK  THINKS HAY PRICES WILL FIND FURTHER SUPPORT. HAY PRODUCERS IN THE WESTERN U-S ARE CASHING IN  ON THE DEMAND BOOM.  . RABOBANK SAYS SEVEN STATES IN THE WEST PRODUCE  18 PERCENT OF THE U-S HAY SUPPLY AND NEARLY 90  PERCENT OF U-S HAY EXPORTS. DRISCOLL BROTHERS IN ABDERDEEN IDAHO SAYS THEY  PLANTED EXTRA ACRES OF WHEAT THIS YEAR, AS THEY  RECENTLY BECAME PARTNERS WITH A GROUP IN CHINA  TO EXPORT HAY THERE.  <"IT'S KIND OF A MUTUAL DEAL. THEY WERE LOOKING FOR SOMETHING. WE  WERE LOOKING FOR SOMETHING BECAUSE THE WHEAT PRICE IS NOT UP TO  COST OF PRODUCTION, SO WE'RE TRYIGN TO LOOK FOR SOMETHING A LITTLE  BIT DIFFERNT AND THIS COME ALONG. AND IT LOOKED LIKE IT COULD WORK.  TRHERES'S A LOT OF PEOPLE IN CHIAN THAT ARE TRYING TO GET OUT OF THE  LOWER CLASS INCOME AND OCME INTO THE MIDDLE CLASS. AND THEY'RE  TASTING MILK, MEAT AND PROTEINS. AND THEY'RE LOOKIGN FOR  SOMETHING A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT. SO IT'S JUST AN OPPORTUNITY IT LOOKS  LIKE."> DRISCOLL TELLING AGDAY 18 TRUCKLODS OF A HAY A  DAY  WILL GO INTO CONTAINERS AND HEAD TO CHINA. IT  TAKES 45 DAYS FOR THE CROP TO MAKE THE TRIP.  CHINA ALSO ANNOUNCING IT'S HUNGRY FOR U-S RICE,  SAYING IT WILL IMPORT AMERICAN RICE FOR THE FIRST  TIME.

CHINA IMPORTING RICE
CHINA IS THE WORLD'S LARGEST RICE PRODUCER AND  HIGHLY SOUGHT AFTER FOR U-S RICE EXPORTS. AG SECRETARY SONNY PERDUE SAYS IT'S A DEAL IN  THE WORKS FOR MORE THAN A DECADE. AND U-S RICE  PRODUCERS SAY THE NEW DEMAND IS A MAJOR WIN FOR THE RICE INDUSTRY.  <CHINA IS A MONSTER OF A MARKET. THE FACTA SARE BASED ONT EH  CONSUMPTION RATES OF RICE IN CHINA, THAT IF IN A 14 DAY PERIOD,  THEY COULD EAT THE ENTIRE U.S. CROP. SO IT'S AN UNREAL MARKET. > SULLIVAN SAYS THE OTHER EXPORT MARKET THE U-S  RICE INDUSTRY WANTS TO GROW IS CUBA. RICE NEEDS WATER. BUT WATER IN TEXAS CAN BE IN  SHORT SUPPLY. IN 2012 SOME RICE GROWERS ON THE  LOWER COLORADO RIVER WERE CUT OFF FROM WATER  FOR IRRIGATION. RESERVOIRS WERE JUST TOO LOW TO  FLOOD TENS OF THOUSANDS OF RICE FIELDS. BUT A NEW RESERVOIR IN WHARTON COUNTY COULD  GIVE FARMERS A BIT MORE CERTAINY OF THEIR WATER  NEEDS. IN THIS REPORT FROM THE TEXAS FARM BUREAU ED  WOLFF TELLS US ABOUT THIS LAKE OF HOPE. WATER. FARMERS CAN'T FARM WITHOUT IT. NO ONE KNOWS THIS  BETTER THAN TEXAS RICE FARMERS. IN RECENT YEARS, GROWERS ALONG  THE COLORADO RIVER HAVE DONE WITHOUT WATER. NO WATER MEANS  NO RICE. BUT A NEW RESERVOIR OUTSIDE OF LANE CITY HOPES TO  CHANGE ALL THAT. "IT'S NOT ON THE COLORADO RIVER IT'S JUST OFF OF THE COLORADO RIVER  AND WE'LL ACTUALLY PUMP WATER OUT OF THE COLORADO RIVER INTO A  CANAL AND INTO THIS OFF CHANNEL RESERVOIR PROJECT WHERE IT WILL BE  USED FOR A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT USES IN THE AREA." THIS IS THE FIRST NEW WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR IN THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN IN DECADES. IT'S NOT JUST FOR FARMERS BUT THE WATER NEEDS OF  ALL IN THE AREA. A GROUP OF LOCAL FARMERS RECENTLY TOURED THE  CONSTRUCTION SITE. SEEING WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS. THE NEW LAKE, ABOUT AN HOUR FROM THE TEXAS COAST, WILL TAKE UP 1100 ACRES. ABOUT THE SIZE OF DOWNTOWN AUSTIN.  WHEN CONSTRUCTION IS DONE NEXT YEAR IT WILL HOLD 40,000 ACRE FEET  OF WATER. ROUGHLY 13 BILLION GALLONS. AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO  SUPPLY OVER TWICE THAT MUCH. TO SAY FARMERS IN THE AREA ARE  PLEASED WOULD BE AN UNDERSTATEMENT. "EVEN IN THE YEARS OF THE DROUGHT AND THERE WAS NO WATER. THERE  WAS STILL A LOT OF RAINFALL THAT WAS HAPPENING SOUTH OF AUSTIN. IN  OTHER WORDS, THEY COULD NOT RETAIN IT IN THOSE DAMS. SO WE'RE  SITTING THERE WITHOUT A RICE CROP WATCHING WATER TRAVEL DOWN THE  RIVER THINKING, 'MAN I JUST WISH WE HAD THAT WATER.'" NOW THEY WILL. CURRENTLY THE LEVELS OF THE HIGHLAND LAKES  UPSTREAM DETERMINE IF RICE FARMERS GET TO PLANT A CROP. IF LAKE  BUCHANAN, LAKE TRAVIS AND OTHERS ARE TOO LOW, FARMERS DON'T GET  WATER. WHEN THIS RESERVOIR IS FINISHED, HOPEFULLY THAT'LL BE A THING  OF THE PAST. CAREY ORSAK: "KNOWING THAT WE WILL HAVE THIS WATER SUPPLY WE  SHOULD BE ABLE TO FARM RICE BUT PRICE IS GOING TO BE THE MAIN  DETERMINING FACTOR. YOU CAN'T DO IT AT A LOSS. | BUT IT WILL ENSURE  THAT WE WILL HAVE WATER GOING FORWARD." 2016 WAS THE FIRST TIME IN 4 YEARS THAT GROWERS COULD USE WATER  FROM THE COLORADO RIVER. BECAUSE OF LOW PRICES CAREY HAS YET TO  PLANT RICE AGAIN…BUT MANY OF HIS FARMING FRIENDS HAVE. RICE  FARMERS ALONG THE COLORADO WERE CLOSE TO BECOMING EXTINCT.  THIS RESERVOIR COULD BE A LAKE OF HOPE. JOHN HOFMANN: "IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A RECREATIONAL FISHERY. IT'S  NOT GOING TO BE FOR BOATING OR ANY OF THAT SORT OF THING. ITS SOLE  PURPOSE IT TO CREATE A PLACE TO STORE FLOOD WATERS SO THAT WE CAN  USE THEM. AGRICULTURE IS JUST ONE OF THE WATER USERS TO BENEFIT FROM THE NEW  RESERVOIR. THE NEW SUPPLY OF WATER WILL BE GOOD FOR THE ENTIRE  BASIN AND THE TOWNS AND CITIES IT FEED. GROWING BOTH CROPS AND  COMMUNITIES. WITH THE TEXAS FARM BUREAU, ED WOLFF, LANE CITY. ) THANKS, ED./ABOUT HALF OF THE TEXAS RICE CROP IS CALLED FAIR.  52-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. AND HARVEST IS JUST GETTING UNDERWAY. IN THE TOP RICE GROWING STATE OF ARKANSAS, 69- PERCENT OF THE CROP IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CROP COMMENTS
LET'S GET YOUR FIRST LOOK AT WEATHER ON THIS  MONDAY MORNING. HERE'S MIKE HOFFMAN. GOOD  MORNING MIKE. GOOD MORNING, TYNE.  TODAY'S CROP COMMENT COMES FROM SCOTT VAN  ALLEN IN CLEARWATER, KANSAS.  SCOTT SAYS DRYLAND GRAIN SORGHUM NEEDS A DRINK  IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. AS OF FRIDAY, THE CROP  ONLY HAD AN INCH OF RAIN IN JULY.  A NEW CROP PROGRESS REPORT WILL BE RELEASED  LATER THIS AFTERNOON.GOOD MORNING TINED TODAY'S CROP COMMENT COMES FROM SCOTT VAN ALLEN IN CLEARWATER KANSAS SCOTT SAYS DRYLY AND GRAIN SORGHUM NEEDS A DRINK IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS OF FRIDAY THE CROP ONLY HAD AN INCH OF RAIN IN JULY. A NEW CROP PROGRESS REPORT WILL BE RELEASED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE RAIN THAT WE HAD LAST WEEK. AND YOU CAN SEE ACROSS THE CORN BELT SOME PRETTY DECENT AMOUNTS IN PLACES AND OTHERS NOT SO MANY. WE'LL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT COMING UP AT FIRST. HERE'S SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS.THIS IS MACHINERY PETE - INVITING YOU TO CHECK OUT MY NEW  WEBSITE - MACHINERYPETE.COM - OFFERING FARMERS TENS OF  THOUSANDS OF USED EQUIPMENT LISTINGS TO SEARCH.  LET MACHINERY  PETE HELP YOU FIND AND VALUE YOUR NEXT PIECE OF USED EQUIPMENT. 

TEASE
NEXT IN AGRIBUSINESS WE CONTINUE OUR COVERAGE  OF JAPAN'S MOVE TO INCREASE TARIFFS ON U-S BEEF. PLUS MACHINERY PETE CHECKS IN... AND TRYING TO REBUILD THE POPULATION OF AN  ENDANGERED ANIMAL IN A LAND DOWN UNDER.

AGRIBUSINESS
WELL MOVING THINGS OVER TO THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK ON AGDAY SUE  MARTIN AND BRIAN ROACH WITH ME. SUE, WE'LL START WITH YOU. BIG  NEWS OUT OF JAPAN. INCREASING TARIFF O FROZEN PRODUCTS 50  PERCENT FROM THIRTY EIGHT POINT FIVE PERCENT. HOW BIG OF A BLOW IS  THAT GOING TO BE FOR BEEF EXPORTS.  WELL IT'S KIND OF A CONCERN AND THAT MIGHT BE PART OF WHAT BROKE  THE MARKET BACK HERE. YOU KNOW THIS WEEK WE'VE BEEN EBBING  AND FLOWING THIS WEEK WHIPPING BACK AND FORTH. BUT IN THE  MEANTIME THE PRODUCTS ONLY BEEN LOSING A LITTLE BIT EVERY DAY.  AND SO THE PRODUCT LOOKS LIKE IT'S FACING BUT IT ACCOUNTS FOR ABOUT  42 PERCENT OF THE FROZEN BEEF THAT WE SENT TO JAPAN. SO THAT'S A  CONCERN. BUT IN THE MEANTIME I LOOK AT CHINA AND I THINK CHINA  IS GOING TO GROW INTO BEING A BIG MARKET FOR US. IT'S TAKING A LITTLE  TIME BUT THEY'RE ALREADY TAKING BEEF. AND THEN YOU LOOK AT  AUSTRALIA AND THEY HAVEN'T BEEN REBUILDING BACK THEIR INDUSTRY  BECAUSE OF THE DROUGHT. AND NEW ZEALAND THEY'RE WE'RE NOT  GETTING MUCH IN FROM NEW ZEALAND SO I LOOK AT OUR INDUSTRY  WHERE WE'RE BUILDING NUMBERS GREATER THIS NEXT YEAR. YOU KNOW  WE HAD 16 PERCENT GREATER PLACEMENTS AND THAT WAS EVEN ABOUT  10 PERCENT MORE THAN WHAT TRADERS WERE EXPECTING IN THE LAST  CATTLE ON PETE REPORT. AND IT JUST SPEAKS TO ABOUT HOW DRY IT'S  BEEN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT IN THE MEAN TIME IF THEY START  CATCHING SOME RAIN IN THE WEST THAT'S GOING TO SLOW UP ANY  MOVEMENT ON COW CALF PAIRS THERE. SO THAT WILL BE GOOD BUT ALSO  BEHIND ALL THESE PLACEMENTS WHAT'S HAPPENING AREN'T GOING TO BE  IN A YEAR LENGTHS YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE A REALLY GOOD MARKET  AGAIN NEXT APRIL IN MAY.  SWITCHING GEARS OVER TO THE CROP SIDE. IS THERE A BULLISH DEMAND  STORY, SUE HELPED US FIND THAT IN THE BEEF SIDE. IS THERE A BULLISH  TO ME AND STORY IN SOYBEANS HERE.  I THINK SO ABSOLUTELY. I MEAN IF YOU LOOK AT BEING DEMAND HAS  INCREASED 20 PERCENT TO US IN THE LAST FOUR YEARS 20 PERCENT AND  THAT'S ALL EXPORT RELATED FEED RELATED. WHEN YOU LOOK AT CHINA'S  SWINEHERD REBUILDING THE RATE OF 7 PERCENT OVER THE NEXT TWO  YEARS THEY WILL MORE THEY WILL EXCEED THE PEAK THAT WE SAW THERE  TWO YEARS AGO. AND THAT'S WHERE THIS BIG APPETITE FOR BEANS IS  COMING FROM. I THINK THAT IF YOU KNOW WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT WE  TALKED ABOUT EARLIER ABOUT THE BEING YIELD COMING DOWN AND YOU  TAKE A BUSHEL OUT OF BEANS MAYBE NOT AS BIG A DEAL YOU TAKE  TWO BUSHELS OUT OF BEANS WHAT THE CURRENT DEMAND NUMBERS WE  HAVE YOU'LL SEE PRICES REACT VERY QUICKLY. AND I THINK THAT'S THE  STORY IN BEANS AND THE WAY THE CROP LOOKS. I THINK THERE'S ENOUGH  DEMAND EVEN THOUGH WITH SOUTH AMERICA A BIG CROP WE HAVE TO  GROW A BIG CROP IN THE U.S. IS STILL REPRESENTS 35 PERCENT OF THE  WORLD'S SUPPLY. SO THERE'S A GOOD PICTURE FOR BEANS ON OUT IN THE  NEXT YEAR. THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE.  WE APPRECIATE IT. WELL STAY WITH US. MIKE HOFFMAN ACTUALLY HAS  HIS 90 DAY FORECAST SO HOW COULD WEATHER PAN OUT THIS HARVEST.  WE'LL CHECK WITH HIM AFTER THE BREAK.   ARE YOU A GAME CHANGER?  KNOW SOMEONE WHO IS?   CHEVRON IS SEARCHING FOR THOSE PEOPLE THAT HAVE MADE AN IMPACT ON THE INDUSTRY.  SHARE YOUR NOMINEE AT CHEVRONDELO  DOT COM SLASH GAME CHANGERS!  DELO:  LET'S GO FURTHER.  )

WEATHER
<WELCOME BACK. WELL MIKE I KNOW YOU'RE GIVING US A LOOK AT  MOISTURE LAST WEEK AND IT JUST PROVES HOW SPOTTY WAS IN AREAS. I  MEAN CHECK OUT IOWA.  I KNOW WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT FROM A DISTANCE THERE'S A WHOLE  BUNCH OF GREEN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BUT THEY'RE  ZOOMING IN NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. YEAH IT REALLY IS SPOTTY ACROSS  MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY YOU CAN SEE SOME HEAVY POCKETS  HERE AND THERE WITH THESE RED BATCHES OR ORANGE BATCHES ACROSS  PARTS OF THE AREA AS WELL. AND YOU CAN SEE OUT WEST THEY'VE  BEEN GETTING SOME DECENT SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAINS EVERY SINGLE  DAY. BUT LET'S ZOOM INTO THE CORN BELT. THAT'S THE CONCERN LIKE  TINED SAID IS IOWA. SO YOU CAN SEE FROM DES MOINES  SOUTHEASTWARD NOT SO MUCH BETWEEN A WEEK AGO SATURDAY AND  THIS PAST FRIDAY. BUT YOU CAN SEE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF  THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF IOWA ACROSS  NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND A HUGE BATCH MOVED ACROSS  NORTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY AREA TOWARDS ST.  LOUIS AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. BUT IT JUST KIND OF DEPENDED WHERE THESE COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND THAT  WILL BE THE QUESTION THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH I DON'T THINK THERE'S GOING  TO BE NEARLY AS MANY OF THOSE COMPLEXES. SO I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO BE A LOT OF DRY AREAS ACROSS SOME OF THOSE SECTIONS IN  THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WE'LL SHOW YOU THAT COMING UP.  JETSTREAM YOU CAN SEE WE'RE STILL KIND OF IN A TROUGH. A REINFORCING SHOT OF A TROUGH THERE COMING IN ON WEDNESDAY SO  WE BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN SHIFTING WITH THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY BACK  WESTWARD WHICH MEANS WE WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS HEAT THROUGH THE  MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BECAUSE YOU'LL GET A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING  EACH TIME ONE OF THESE FRONTS COME SOUTHWARD.  YOU CAN SEE AS WE HEAD THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK THEN THERE IS  ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING INTO THIS TROUGH SHOVING THE RIDGE  EVEN FARTHER TO THE WEST. THE FOLKS ON THE WEST COAST THERE'S NO  CHANCE OF ANYTHING COMING IN IN A SITUATION LIKE THIS AND HEADING  INTO NEXT WEEK AND THEN OUR MODEL IS ALMOST CUTTING OFF AN AREA  OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD REALLY COOL IT  DOWN IN THAT PART OF THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT  TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. YOU MIGHT SAY WHY ARE YOU GOING BELOW  NORMAL DOWN HERE. BECAUSE WHAT HAPPENS IN THIS SITUATION IS  YOU GET A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN IN THIS BATTLEGROUND AREA AND SO  THAT ENDS UP WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. A  LOT OF TIMES THAT'S WHY WE'RE DOING THAT ABOVE NORMAL IN MAINE  ABOVE NORMAL NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE WEST PRECIPITATION BELOW  NORMAL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST.  ABOVE NORMAL FOR CORNER REGIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST RIGHT HERE THE  AUGUST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MID- ATLANTIC BELOW NO EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE  PLAINS AND THE WEST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED YOU'LL  NOTICE THIS PATTERN OVERALL CONTINUES INTO THE FALL ABOVE NORMAL  NORTHEAST. NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BELOW NORMAL DEVELOPS  IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. AND THAT CONTINUES ON INTO OCTOBER  AS WELL. THE WAY IT LOOKS A LOT OF THE CORN BELT PROBABLY PRETTY  CLOSE TO NORMAL OVERALL PRECIPITATION NEXT 90 DAYS. MUCH OF THE  EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES ABOVE NORMAL  BELOW NORMAL FROM NEBRASKA NORTHWARD. UNFORTUNATELY A LOT OF  THAT IS ALREADY IN A DROUGHT SITUATION.  THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME  LOCAL FORECASTS HAD IN EUGENE OREGON FIRST OF ALL LOTS OF  SUNSHINE AND HOT. HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 ST. CLOUD MINNESOTA  PARTLY SUNNY AND RATHER WARM HIGH OF 84. AND TAKE A LOOK AT  GREENVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA. SUNNY AND WE'LL CALL IT COMFORTABLY  WARM. HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85. 

TEASE
WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THE GROWING DEMAND FOR U-S  HAY. MACHINERY PETE SAYS THAT MEANS MORE  DEMAND FOR BALERS. WE'LL LOOK AT THE NUMBERS NEXT. AND A FIERCE CRITTER ON THE ISLAND OF TASMANIA IS  IN TROUBLE. WE'LL LOOK AT EFFORTS TO SAVE THE  "TAZ". "MACHINERY PETE IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY JOHN DEERE…WHERE  CAN YOU FIND THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE INVENTORY OF JOHN DEERE  CERTIFIED PRE-OWNED TRACTORS, COMBINES AND SPRAYERS?   MACHINE FINDER-DOT-COM … SOMETIMES THE BEST NEW ADDITION TO  YOUR FLEET ISN'T NEW!" )

MACHINERY PETE
AS WE SAID EARLIER, U-S HAY PRODUCERS ARE  CASHING IN RIGHT NOW ON HAY DEMAND. SO IF YOU'RE  IN THE MARKET FOR A BIG BALER, MACHINERY PETE  TELLS US WHAT YOU MIGHT BE PAYING.  ALL RIGHT FOLKS LET'S CATCH UP ON WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING WITH  USED HAY EQUIPMENT VALUES. HERE IS A PICTURE OF A NIFTY NEW  HOLLAND 472 74 HE BOUGHT THIS SOLD ON AN ONLINE AUCTION IN EAST  CENTRAL MISSOURI LAST THURSDAY OF $4200. NOW I THOUGHT THAT WAS  ACTUALLY A PRETTY GOOD BUY. THE AVERAGE AUCTION PRICE ON THE LAST  12 472'S IS $5246. SO AGAIN PRETTY GOOD BY THERE AT FORTY TWO  HUNDRED DOLLARS. NOW IF WE SWITCH GEARS A LITTLE BIT TO LARGER USED  EQUIPMENT. HERE'S A PICTURE OF A VERY SHARP MASSEY FERGUSON  2270 XD BIG SQUARE BALER AND THIS SOLD ON A FARM AUCTION IN  CENTRAL INDIANA LAST WEDNESDAY BROUGHT $88000. THAT I THOUGHT  WAS A PRETTY STRONG PRICE PARTICULARLY WHEN YOU COMPARE IT TO THE  DEALER LISTINGS AT MACHINERYPETE.COM ON 2270 XD'S. WE SEE  THEM LISTED ANYWHERE FROM EIGHTY NINE THOUSAND UP TO $124  THOUSAND. AND IF WE STAY WITH BIG SQUARE BAILERS, A WEEK AGO  SATURDAY ON A FARM AUCTION IN NORTHEAST IOWA THIS VERY NICE  2011 MASSEY FERGUSON 2150 THAT HAD DONE 78 HUNDRED BALES  SOLD FOR FIFTY ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS. THAT'S ACTUALLY THE HIGHEST  AUCTION PRICE I'VE SEEN ON A 2150 IN OVER TWO YEARS. NOW ONE  OTHER THING WE'VE NOTICED IS A BIG BUMP IN SEARCH TRAFFIC TO BIG  SQUARE BALERS THE LAST 30 DAYS THAT MACHINERYPETE.COM ACTUALLY  UP TWENTY THREE POINT SEVEN PERCENT. AND FOLKS IF YOU ARE LOOKING  FOR A BIG SQUARE BALER RIGHT NOW CHECK OUT MACHINERYPETE.COM  WE GOT 536 OF THEM LISTED FOR SALE.) EFFORTS TO SAVE A FEISTY CRITTERS...THAT'S AFTER  THE BREAK.

IN THE COUNTRY
IN THE COUNTRY - SPONSORED BY KUBOTA.  TRACTORS, HAY TOOLS,  UTILILTY VEHICLES, MOWERS AND MORE.  VISIT KUBOTA.COM TODAY. ) EFFORTS TO REBUILD THE POPULATION OF TASMANIAN  DEVILS IN THE WILD ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SUCCESS. THE FEISTY CRITTER WAS ONCE NATIVE TO AUSTRALIA  BUT CAN ONLY BE FOUND ON THE ISLAND OF TASMANIA. NEARLY 80 PERCENT OF THE SPECIES HAS BEEN WIPED  OUT BY A CANCEROUS FACIAL TUMOUR DISEASE WHICH  IS SPREAD BY BITING, FIGHTING AND MATING.  A YEAR AGO 33 HEALTHY, IMMUNIZED DEVILS WERE  RELEASED INTO QUARANTINED REGION...AND LET  NATURE TAKE ITS COURSE. "ANIMALS HAVE BEEN BREEDING UP THERE. THERE'S AT LEAST 44 IMPS,  AS I LIKE TO CALL THEM OR JOEYS, IN THE POUCHES OF THEIR MUMS. SO,  WE'VE BEEN EFFECTIVE IN CREATING A LARGER POPULATION."> "THE PROGRESS THEY'VE MADE IN SUCH A SHORT SPACE OF TIME,  UNDER PHENOMENAL PRESSURE IS JUST UNBELIEVABLE. SO YEAH WE  FEEL REALLY POSITIVE."> IF ALL THE NEW JOEYS ARE SUCCESSFULLY WEANED, IT  COULD MEAN THE POPULATION IN THAT AREA DOUBLES.  HOWEVER AT ONE OF THE FOREST PRESERVES, 30  PERCENT OF RELEASED DEVILS HAVE BEEN HIT BY  CARS. SO THE CONSERVATIONISTS INSTALLED  WARNING SIGNS TO DRIVERS.

CLOSE
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE  GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR BETSY JIBBEN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M TYNE  MORGAN. 

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