AgDay Daily Recap -June 22, 2015

June 22, 2015 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JUNE 22, 2015

OPEN HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY TRADE PROMOTION HEADS BACK TO THE SENATE PLUS, THE TRADE IMPACTS ON SORGHUM GROWERS, AND INDEPTH LOOK AT THE INDUSTRY. IN AGRIBUSINESS...WEATHER CHALLENGES AND TEPID MARKET REACTIONS. CATTLE ON FEED NUMBERS SHOW A SURPRISE IN PLACEMENTS, AND MICHIGAN 4-H'ERS GET "BACK TO BASICS" IN THE GARDEN - AS THEY 'PLEDGE THEIR HANDS FOR LARGER SERVICE.' AGDAY BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG LASTING CHEVY SILVERADO.
TPA MOVES FORWARD:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. IT COULD BE A MAKE OR BREAK WEEK FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA'S TRADE AGENDA AS THE SENATE TAKES-UP NEGOTIATING AUTHORITY. ...AND THAT'S OUR TOP STORY ON AGDAY.
SORGHUM TRADE:
SORGHUM WAS A CROP OFTEN OVERLOOKED IN THE U.S. JUST TWO YEARS AGO, BUT THANKS TO CHINA'S STRONG APPETITIE, IT'S GAINING POPULARITY BY CREATING A STRONG BASIS FOR FARMERS. NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN GIVES US A GLANCE AT THIS YEAR'S CROP AS WELL AS LOOKING INTO WHERE THIS YEAR'S DEMAND IS GOING.
JUNE RMI:
IT'S BEEN A TOUGH 2015 AS FAR AS MOST COMMODITY PRICES GO, BUT THE ECONOMIC TIDE MAY BE TURNING A BIT.
LAND SALES:
THE INDEX ALSO INDICATING LAND VALUES SOFTENING. NOW IT A NEW STUDY FROM THE FARMER'S NATIONAL COMPANY, SAYS SALES VOLUMES--OR THE AMOUNT LAND BEING SOLD--IS DOWN 40 PERCENT COMOPARED WITH TWO YEARS AGO. IT'S ALSO SEEING PRICES OFF ABOUT 10 PERCENT. THE REPORT SAYS PRICES ARE LIKELY TO MOVE GRADUALLY--THERE ARE STILL SOLID FUNDAMENTALS TO SUPPORT DEMAND FOR LAND.
CROP WATCH:
SOME IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR FARMERS. CINDI CLAWSON HAS DETAILS IN CROPWATCH.
TEASE:
NEXT I'M HEADED OVER TO THE AGRIBUSINESS TO DISCUSS THE CURRENT WEATHER SITUATION AND WHY WE HAVEN'T SEEN MORE ACTION FROM PLUS MACHINERY PETE IS HERE WITH THE LATEST MACHINERY BUYS…
CATTLE ON FEED:
USDA ROLLING OUT THE LATEST CATTLE ON FEED REPORT…IN JUNE THE NUMBER OF CATTLE AND CALVES ON FEED IN THE NATION'S LARGEST FEEDLOTS TOTALING 10 POINT 6 MILLION HEAD. THAT UP 1 PERCENT YEAR OVER YEAR HOWEVER PLACEMENTS SEEING A SIGINFICANT DROP--DOWN 10 PERCENT COMPARED TO JUNE 2014... IMPROVED PASTURE CONDITIONS AND THE DESIRE TO REBUILD HERD NUMBERS HELPING KEEP THOSE CATTLE OUT OF THE FEEDLOT…MAY MARKETINGS WERE 8 PERCENT LOWER---AND THE LOWEST SINCE THE NUMBERS STARTED BEING COLLECTED BACK IN 1996. LETS HEAD OVER TO CME TO SEE HOW CATTLE MARKETS ENDED THE WEEK.
ANALYSIS:
AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK THIS MORNING, JOE VACLAVIK, STANDARD GRAIN…JOE LET'S TALK CROP CONDITIONS. THAT SEEMS TO BE THE BUZZ THAT EVERYONE IS DISCUSSING RIGHT NOW. BUT WE HAVEN'T SEEN IS A REALLY BIG MOVE IN ANY MARKETS. NO, THE CORN MARKET HAS REACTED VERY MINIMALLY. WE'VE SEEN A SMALL BOUNCE FROM REALLY SOME MULTI-YEAR LOWS IN THE CORN MARKET. IT'S BEEN A YAWN. SOYBEAN MARKET IS MAYBE REACTING A LITTLE BIT BETTER BECAUSE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED ACREAGE BECAUSE OF THESE EXCESSIVE RAINS. I THINK THERE MAY BE SOME PREVENT PLANTS SO IT'S KIND OF UP IN THE AIR. WHAT ARE WE TALKING? ARE WE TALKING A MILLION ACRES, A COUPLE OF MILLION AND DOES THAT REALLY IMPACT THIS, OR DO WE EVEN KNOW YET? IT COULD AND IT'S ANYBODY'S GUESS AT THIS POINT. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE MARCH 31 USDA NUMBER 84.2 MILLION, EVERYONE THINKS IT'S TOO LOW. EVERYBODY HAD UPPED THOSE NUMBERS TO 86 TO 86 AND A HALF. NOW WE'RE BACK-TRACKING TOWARDS THAT MARCH NUMBER. WHERE WE ARE LEFT ON JUNE 30TH IS REALLY ANYONE'S GUESS YOU GOT THAT UNCERTAINTY. NOW WE HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING YIELD. AGRONOMISTS WILL TELL YOU YIELD POTENTIAL FOR SOYBEANS PLANTED IN MID-OR-LATE JUNE IS NOT GOOD. SO, THE SOYBEAN MARKET ADDING A LITTLE BIT OF RISK HERE…THE CORN MARKET ISN'T REACTING. MOST OF THE CORN IS PLANTED ON TIME. WE'VE HAD SOME WET FEET AND SOME SIDE-DRESS ISSUES BUT MOST CORN I'VE SEEN DOESN'T LOOK TOO BAD. I'M SURE THERE ARE POCKETS OUT THERE. NOT EVERYONE WANTS TO HEAR THAT BECAUSE YOU'RE ALWAYS SEEING PICTURES OF THE DROUGHT OUT FIELDS. THE AGRONOMIST WILL TELL YOU THAT SO MUCH OF THIS COMES DOWN TO JULY WEATHER AND WHAT HAPPENS DURING POLLINATION. DO WE GET THE SUNSHINE? DO WE GET THE HEAT THAT WE NEED? DO WE GET THE RAINFALL EVERY WEEK TO CONDUCE THIS BIG CROP? THE MARKET BELIEVES THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIG CORN CROP IS STILL OUT THERE. USDA TELLS US WHAT THE CROP RATINGS ARE WHICH ARE STILL ABOVE THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES THAT WE SEE. IT'S REALLY STRONG. UNTIL WE SEE A PROBLEM IN JULY, THIS CORN MARKET IS GOING TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME I THINK. SOYBEANS MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF A BRIGHTER PICTURE. I THINK THERE'S MORE UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW THAN THERE IS IN CORN. ALRIGHT THANKS JOE. WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE AGDAY IN JUST A MINUTE.
ITC RAIN GRADEN:
IN MANY PARTS OF THE COUNTRY - WEST COAST EXCLUDED - THE LAST THING PEOPLE NEED IS MORE RAIN. OF COURSE IF YOU HAVE A RAIN 'GARDEN', YOU WELCOME THE PRECIPITATION. IN THIS REPORT PROVIDED BY MICHIGAN STATE EXTENSION, WE SEE HOW 4-H VOLUNTEERS ARE LIVING UP TO THEIR PLEDGE TO USE THEIR HANDS FOR LARGER SERVICE.
CLOSE:
 THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.

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