AgDay Daily Recap -June 30, 2016

June 30, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
JUNE 30, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY
 PART TWO OF OUR LOOK AT PORTS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHEWEST. IN AGRIBUSINESS...ANALYSTS EYES ARE ON USDA'S PENDING ACREAGE REPORT. IT’S THE OLD HOKEY POKEY RIGHT YOU KNOW YOU TAKE THE MONEY OUT YOU PUT THE MONEY IN THAT’S HOW THIS WHOLE DEAL GOES THEN YOU SHAKE IT ALL ABOUT COULD THE KIDS OF CLONES BE THE TICKET TO DRASTICALLY IMPROVING THE CATTLE HERD? WE HAVE AN UPDATE ON NEW RESEARCH. AND USING TECHNOLOGY TO HELP MITIGATE THE DANGERS OF WILDFIRE.
PANAMA CANAL:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AS THE PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION COMES ONLINE, IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO DIMISHE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PORTS TO AMERICAN FARMERS-ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN CORN BELT. CHINESE DEMAND AND IMPROVED INFRASTRUCTURE CONTINUES TO HELP FARMERS THERE STAY PRICE COMPETITIVE. IN PART TWO OF HER SERIES, MICHELLE ROOK TAKES ON A TOUR OF THIS VITAL EXPORT OUTLET.  THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PORT IS AN IMPORTANT EXPORT OUTLET FOR GRAIN COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN CORN BELT AND GOING TO COUNTRIES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA. THAT'S BECAUSE CHINA'S THE TOP CUSTOMER FOR U.S. SOYBEANS AND THE PHILIPPINES LEADS THE LIST FOR MEAL. "WE EXPORT ABOUT 60-PERCENT OF THE SOYBEANS THAT WE RAISE IN THE UNITED STATES. FULLY ONE THIRD OF THOSE SOYBEANS THAT WE RAISE TODAY GO TO CHINA." IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, I'M MICHELLE ROOK REPORTING FOR AGDAY.
USDA TO RELEASE ACREAGE ESTIMATES:
LATER TODAY, USDA WILL RELEASE IT'S MUCH ANTICIPATED ACREAGE ESTIMATES.  AHEAD OF THE NUMBERS, TRADERS ARE EXPECTING A SURGE IN SOYEBAN ACRES FROM THE INTENTIONS REPORT RELEASED IN MARCH. THE AVERAGE GUESS IS MORE THAN A MILLION AND A HALF ACRES HIGHER. CORN PROJECTIONS ARE FOR FEWER ACRES THAN WE SAW IN MARCH, AT 92 POINT 8 MILLION. AND ALL WHEAT ACRES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE A BUMP, TO 49 PONT 8. BUT NOT EVERYONE AGREES WITH THESE PROJECTIONS, AS SOME SAY WE COULD HAVE CORN AND SOYBEAN ACRES TICK HIGHER IN THIS REPORT, DUE TO LESS WHEAT.
BAYER PROPOSAL TO MONSANTO:
DURING AN EARNINGS CALL WEDNESDAY, MONSANTO CEO HUGH GRANT SAYS WHILE THERE'S NO FORMAL UPDATE ON THE BAYER PROPOSAL, HE SAYS HE'S PERSONALLY BEEN IN DISCUSSION'S WITH BAYER'S MANAGEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS-ADDING HE CONTINUES TO SEE THE VALUE A MERGER WOULD CREATE. THE DISCUSSION QUICKLY TURNING TO A BEARISH EARNING REPORT.
GLYPHOSATE APPROVAL:
MEANWHILE, THE E-U, SAYS IT WILL EXTEND GLYPHOSATE APPROVAL FOR 18 MONTHS. IT WAS A CLOSE CALL, AS THE PREVIOUS AUTHORIZATION WAS SCHEDULED TO RUN OUT JUNE 30TH. THE E-U COMMISSION SAYS IT'S WAIITNG FOR THE EUROPEAN CHEMICALS AGENCY TO EXAMINE THE HEALTH EFFECTS.
CROP COMMENTS:
LETS SEE HOW THINGS LOOK FROM THE COUNTRYSIDE. MIKE HOFFMAN JOINING US AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH CROP COMMENTS.
GOOD MORNING, CLINTON. LET'S START OFF IN BURT COUNTY, NEBRSAKA. MATT NELSON SAYS HIS ALFALFA IS IN FULL BLOOM. IT MAY BE READY TO CUT BY THE WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON RAIN. HE SAYS THE CROPS RECEIVED ROUGHLY A HALF-INCH OF RAIN MID-WEEK. OVER IN NORTHERN INDIANA, RANDY MATTHYS SAYS HE'S PLANNING ON HARVESTING HIS WHEAT CROP NEXT WEEK.
TEASE:
AFTER THE BREAK, MIKE NORTH JOINS US FOR AN ACREAGE REPORT PREVIEW. WE'LL GET HIS THOUGHTS ON WHAT TO WATCH FOR AS USDA RELEASES TODAY'S KEY NUMBERS.  AND NUMBERS MATTER WHEN FIGHTING FIRES IN THE MOUNTAINS OUT WEST. THESE NEW HIGH TECH CAMERA'S ARE HELPING THE FOREST SERVICE KEEP A CLOSER EYE ON POTENTIAL DANGERS.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS LETS SEE HOW MARKETS FINISHED WEDNESDAY FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO.
WEDNESDAY'S GRAINS WE SEE A LITTL EBIT OF  PRESSURE ESPECIALLY ON A WHEAT AND CORN AND I THINK WHEAT AND CORN ARE GOING THROUGH THE ACTUAL BOTTOMING PROCESS TO ACTUALLY BUILD THE BASE AND BUILD ABOUT TO SEE HIGHER PRICES THIS SUMMER I THINK THAT IS WHAT WE'RE LOOKING FOR WE HAVE NOW MET OUR OBJECTIVES ON BOTH WE AND CORN TO THE DOWNSIDE NOW IS TO LOOK  FOR AREAS TO BUY. NOW WE'RE NOT GOING TO JUMP IN HERE TO LOOK AND WATCH AND KIND OF FIND WHERE WE SEE THE BASE COMING SOYBEAN STUBBORNLY ALTHOUGH LOWERLOOK FOR LEVELS GET BACK IN WEDNESDAY'S LIVESTOCK WHILE AGO WE SEE HERE WE'VE GOT THE CATTLE FLYING HIGHER WE'VE GOT LIVE THEY'LL HIGHER AND WE HAVE HOGS LOWER
AGRIBUSINESS:
HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WE HAVE MIKE NORTH OF COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT GROUP. MIKE WE HAVE GOT THIS BIG REPORT COMING UP FROM USDA LOOKING AT ACREAGE WHAT SURPRISES ARE YOU WATCHING FOR WELL THERE COULD BE ANY OF A NUMBER OF THEM FIRST OF ALL PREVENT PLANT THIS YEAR'S GONNA BE A LOT LOWER WE HAVE SEEN THIS REALLY GOOD SPRING THE SIX AND A HALF THAT WE HAD ON THE BOOKS LAST YEAR PROBABLY IS GOING TO SHOW UP SO THERE'S A FEW EXTRA MILLION ACRES OUT THERE THAT COULD GO SOMEWHERE AND OF COURSE WE HAVE THIS CONVERSATION ABOUT DID ACRES SHIFT FROM CORN TO SOYBEANS AND IF SO HOW MUCH I THINK EVERYBODY WANTS TO KNOW AND THEN ON TOP OF THAT WE HAD THIS FIVE MILLION DEPARTURE OF ACREAGE FROM WHEAT SEEDINGS WENT FROM FIFTY FOUR AND HALF TO FORTY NINE AND A HALF WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF A YOU KNOW TAKE BACK BY U SDA AND THEY COMEBACK AND SAY IT'S REALLY MORE LIKE 50 AND A HALF 51
NATIONAL WEATHER:
AND WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING DOMINATING MOST OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES GIVING SOME VERY PLEASANT SUNNY WEATHER COLD FRONT HAS DIVIDED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY SO IT'S GOING TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THAT STATIONARY FRONT BACK UP INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ROCKIES NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH EAST WILL SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE MID DAY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES ALL THE WAY DOWN IN PART TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IT IS NOT GOING TO BE LIKE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN BUT THERE ARE GOING TO BE A LOT OF AREAS THAT GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN OUT OF THIS COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD HIT AND MISS AFTERNOON VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST BUT IT'S MOSTLY MISS YOU KNOW YOU JUST GET A FEW SPOTS SEEING A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON HEADING THROUGH TONIGHT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG AT START OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS GREELEY COLORADO FIRST OF ALL PARTLY SUNNY AND NOT AS WARM MAYBE A SPOTTY AFTERNOON STORM HIGH OF SEVENTY EIGHT WINONA MISSISSIPPI MOSTLY SUNNY AND RATHER HOT HIGH OF NINETY THREE AND CONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM THE AFTERNOON HIGH UP TO EIGHTY FIVE 
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK AN UPDATE TO SOME WEST TEXAS RESEARCH THAT COULD HAVE FAR REACHING IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CATTLE INDUSTRY. AND LATER THE FOREST SERVICE IS INSTALLING NEW HIGH TECH CAMERA'S TO HELP SPOT DANGEROUS WILDFIRES.
TV DROVERS:
IN DROVERS T-V, HIGHER QUALITY AND QUANTITY IN BEEF IS A CATTLE RANCHER'S DREAM, ESPEICALLY IF IT'S PRIME, YIELD GRADE 1 CUT THEY'RE PRODUCING. WELL, THANKS TO RESEARCH OUT OF WEST TEXAS A & M, IT COULD SOON BE A REALITY. SCIENTISTS CONFIRMED THIS WEEK THAT RESEARCH INVOLVING CLONED CATTLE SHOWS IT'S POSSIBLE TO GET HIGHER VALUE MEAT WITHOUT WASTEFUL TRIM FAT. THEIR FINDINGS ARE THROUGH THE OFFSPRING OF CLONED COWS. WHEN WE VISITED THE RESEARCH FARM LAST FALL, THEY EXPLAINED IT'S NOT A TYPICAL CLONING PROJECT, AS THEY'RE SELECTING TEH ANIMALS FOR HIGH QUALITY MEAT, INSTEAD OF SPECIFIC GENES.

 

BREXIT’S IMPACT ON BEEF:
THE UNCERTAINTY CREATED BY GREAT BRITAIN'S HISTORIC VOTE TO LEAVE THE EU MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE BEEF INDUSTRY. MARKET UNCERTAINTY LED CATTLE FUTURES LOWER IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING THE BREXIT VOTE. ADD TO IT THE SHARP RISE IN THE VALUE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR. A STRONGER DOLLAR MAKES IT MORE EXPENSIVE FOR OUR FOREIGN EXPORT CUSTOMERS TO BUY BEEF. <THROUGH THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2016, BOTH BEEF AND PORK EXPORTS WERE STEADY WITH LAST YEAR, BUT PORK EXPORT VALUE WAS DOWN 9 % AND BEEF EXPORT VALUE WAS 13 % LOWER. RECENT BEEF EXPORTS TOTAL ABOUT 13% OF U.S. PRODUCTION, BUT APRIL EXPORTS WERE DOWN 4% FROM LAST YEAR. ANY FURTHER SUDDEN DECREASE IN EXPORTS WILL NEGATIVELY INFLUENCE CATTLE PRICES. > HENDERSON SAYS EXPORT VALUES AVERAGED 252 DOLLARS PER HEAD IN APRIL, THAT'S DOWN 15 PERCENT FROM A YEAR AGO.
MORE CATTLE EQUALS LOWER PRICES FOR THE HOLIDAY GRILLING SEASON:
THE LARGER CATTLE HERD IS HELPING CREATE FRIENDLIER PRICES FOR CONSUMERS PLANNING TO GRILL THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. AMERICAN FARM BUREAU SAYS OVERALL, IT WILL COST YOU LESS THAN 6 DOLLARS A PERSON TO FEED 10 PEOPLE. THAT'S UP LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FROM LAST YEAR. BUT GROUND BEEF AND PORK ARE CHEAPER, DUE TO LARGER SUPPLIES. FRESH PRODUCE, LIKE WATERMELON, WILL COST YOU MORE THIS YEAR, BECAUSE OF TIGHTER SUPPLIES.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE'LL BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR WILDFIRES AS NEW TECHNOLOGY HELPS SPOTTERS SEE AND RESPOND.
IN THE COUNTRY:
AS THE WILDFIRE SEASON HEATS UP OUT WEST, A GROWING NETWORK OF CAMERAS INSTALLED ON FORESTED MOUNTAINTOPS IS CHANGING THE WAY CREWS FIGHT FIRES. HAVEN DAILY REPORTS ON HOW NEW TECHNOLOGY IS ALLOWING FOR EARLY DETECTION. <IT'S A JOB THAT HASN'T CHANGED MUCH IN A CENTURY. "I'VE GOT A DARK CLOUD OF COLUMN OF SMOKE AT ABOUT 198 DEGREES." EVERY DAY DURING THE SUMMER WILDFIRE SEASON...FIRE LOOKOUTS CLIMB HIGH TOWERS IN SOME OF THE MOST REMOTE MOUNTAINTOPS IN CALIFORNIA...ARMED ONLY WITH A RADIO AND BINOCULARS...SCANNING THE FOREST FOR FARAWAY SMOKE.
CAN ALSO BE VIEWED BY THE PUBLIC  ONLINE...ALLOWING ANYONE TO BE A FIRE LOOKOUT. HAVEN DALEY, ASSOCIATED PRESS, ELDORADO NATIONAL FOREST.>
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND ALL OF US HERE AT AGDAY, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY IN FARM COUNTRY.

PROMO:
FRIDAY ON AGDAY, THE VERDICT IS OUT ON USDA'S UDPATED ACREAGE REPORT. WE HAVE THE NUMBERS AND HOW IT MOVED THE MARKETS. AND IT WAS A DOUBLE WHAMMY, WITH A NEW LOOK AT ENDING STOCKS. WE'LL COVER IT ALL, PLUS A LOOK AT WEATHER, FRIDAY ON AGDAY.

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