AgDay Daily Recap -March 14, 2016

March 11, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
MARCH 11, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -I’M MICHELLE ROOK. MULTIPLE YEARS OF BIG CROPS AND SLOWER DEMAND HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAD TO LOW COMMODITY PRICES AND THAT COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR FARMERS IN 2016. RAIN HAMMERS PARTS OF THE SOUTH. IN AGRIBUSINESS....A LOOK AT HOG MARKETS. AND WARM WEATHER BRINGS MOSQUITOS--WE'LL SEE HOW MISSOURI RESEARCHERS ARE PREPARING TO TAKE ON THE MOSQUITO CARRIED—ZIKA VIRUS.
PLANTING SEASON JUST AROUND THE CORNER:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. SOUTHERN GROWERS ARE ALREADY BUSY AND IT WON'T BE LONG BEFORE THE MIDWEST FIRES UP EQUIPMENT FOR 2016 PLANTING. ROW CROP FARMERS IN NORTHERN INDIANA ARE GEARING UP FOR ANOTHER SEASON. SCOTT SAYS HIS SOILS DIDN'T RECEIVE AS MUCH MOISTURE THIS WINTER COMPARED TO YEARS PRIOR. THAT'S WHY HE'S EXPECTING A FASTER START FOR HIS OPERATION.
WHAT WILL THE MARKETS INFLUENCE FARMERS TO PLANT?:
BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT MARKET, WHAT WILL PRODUCERS PUT IN THE GROUND? ESPECIALLY GIVEN THEY WILL ALSO HAVE LESS INSURANCE PROTECTION IN 2016.  THE FEBRUARY AVERAGE CROP INSURANCE PRICES ARE BELOW A YEAR AGO-$3.86 ON CORN, $8.85 FOR SOYBEANS AND $5.13 FOR SPRING WHEAT. REGIONAL REPORTER, MICHELLE ROOK ASKED FARMERS ABOUT THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS LAST WEEK AT COMMODITY CLASSIC IN NEW ORLEANS.
 IT WAS A COMMON CONVERSATION AMONG FARMERS AT THIS YEAR'S COMMODITY CLASSIC…THE PROSPECT OF ANOTHER YEAR OF LOW GRAIN PRICES IN 2016.
WITH LOWER COMMODITY PRICES FORECASTED, DIFFICULT DECISION ARE AHEAD FOR FARMERS:
"YOUR DEFAULT ASSUMPTION HAS TO BE THAT CASH PRICE IS GOING TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THIS YEAR THAN LAST YEAR BECAUSE THE WORLD STOCKS USAGE RATIOS ARE THAT LOOSE."AND SO MANY FARMERS ARE BELOW BREAKEVEN LEVELS, ESPECIALLY THOSE GROWING WHEAT.
"NATIONALLY I BELIEVE THE AVERAGE IS BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX DOLLARS A BUSHEL AND FOR A LOT OF US WE'RE STRUGGLING TO GET FIVE DOLLARS A BUSHEL ON OUR WHEAT." "WE'RE LOOKING AT $10 TO $20 AN ACRE IN THE RED BOTH ON CORN AND SOYBEANS." AT THESE PRICES FARMERS ARE SHARPENING THEIR PENCILS AND MAKING SOME TOUGH DECISIONS.
TRYING TO CUT DOWN ON INPUT COSTS:
"LOOKING AT TRYING TO CUT DOWN ON A LITTLE BIT ON MAYBE SOME OF YOUR INPUT COSTS AS FAR AS FERTILIZER."
"WELL ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT THINGS IF YOU RENT LAND IS THE COST OF RENT. A LOT OF NEGOTIATIONS ARE GOING ON WITH LANDOWNERS TO GET THAT COST DOWN."
LESS SORGHUM, WHEAT MORE CORN:
FARMERS ARE ALSO TAKING A HARD LOOK AT ACREAGE. THEY'RE EXPECTED TO PLANT LESS SORGHUM AND WHEAT GROWERS HAVE ALREADY DECIDED TO PLANT ABOUT 3.6 MILLION LESS WINTER WHEAT ACRES. PLUS MORE MAY BE MORE ABANDONED. "WE'LL GRAZE IT ALL THE WAY NOW INTO THE END OF APRIL AND THOSE ACRES ON OUR FARM WILL ROLL INTO COTTON." USDA IS ALSO PROJECTING AN INCREASE IN CORN ACREAGE TO 90 MILLION AND ABOUT 200,000 ACRES LESS BEANS THAN 2015. AND MOST AGREE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT SHIFT.
 "THERE'S A FEW MORE DOLLARS TO BE FOUND IN THE CORN FIELD THAN THERE IS IN THE SOYBEAN FIELD. I DON'T SEE A TREMENDOUS SHIFT, BUT I THINK ITS GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING YEAR." "THE CORN SOYBEAN RATIO FAVORS PLANTING MORE CORN RIGHT NOW, THE NEW CROP RATIO…NOT STRONGLY, BUT ITS DOWN IN THAT 2.2, 2.3 AREA."
STOCKPILES HIGH, PRICES DOWN:
HOWEVER, ACREAGE SHIFTS MAY NOT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK MUCH. AS THREE YEARS OF BIG CROPS HAVE LEFT LARGE U.S. ENDING STOCKS FOR ROW CROPS AND BURDENSOME GLOBAL STOCKS FOR WHEAT. HURST, "STOCKPILES ARE VERY HIGH WORLDWIDE, APPROACHING RECORD LEVELS."
STRONG DOLLAR AND GLOBAL SLOWDOWN CONTRIBUTE TO LOW COMMODITY PRICES:
STANDUP – IN ADDITION TO THE PRESSURE BIG SUPPLIES HAVE PUT ON COMMODITY PRICES THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS FARMERS ARE ALSO FACING SLOWER DEMAND AS A RESULT OF SLOWDOWN IN GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH. "THE GLOBAL SLOWDOWN HAS BEEN AN ISSUE HERE, THE STRONGER DOLLAR HAS MADE US LESS COMPETITIVE SO WE'RE LOSING SOME BUSINESS THAT WE COULD HAVE CAPTURED."
WEATHER RALLY COULD CHANGE PRICES:
AND SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER GRAIN PRICES IS A WEATHER PROBLEM. THE WEAKENING OF EL NINO COULD MEAN SOME PLANTING DELAYS, BUT AS FAR AS A DISASTER WITH A DEVELOPING LA NINA…. "THE CHANCE OF THE PACIFIC MOVING INTO A COOL PHASE WITH LA NINA AND THEN THE RESULTING SUMMER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE…IS LESS THAN 20PERCENT."
DRAWING FROM STOCKPILES MAY BE KEY TO MAKING MONEY IN 2016:
SO INSTEAD OF BETTING ON A WEATHER RALLY, FARMERS NEED TO MOVE LARGE OLD CROP INVENTORIES AND START LOOKING AHEAD TO 2016. IN NEW ORLEANS I'M MICHELLE ROOK REPORTING FOR AGDAY.
RECORD SHORT IN THE GRAIN MARKETS:
THANKS MICHELLE.. MARKET ANALYSTS DO SAY PLANTING DELAYS IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT OR CONTINUED DRYNESS IN WINTER WHEAT AREAS COULD BE A CATALYST FOR A QUICK SPRING WEATHER RALLY SIMILAR TO LAST JUNE. THAT'S BECAUSE FUNDS ARE NEAR OR RECORD SHORT IN THE GRAIN MARKETS AND WOULD COVER SOME OF THOSE POSITIONS.
RAIN HITS THE SOUTH:
THE SOUTH IS GETTING HIT WITH A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF RAIN THIS WEEK -IN SOME CASES IT'S BEEN MEASURED IN FEET, NOT INCHES, FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE POSTED FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO EAST TEXAS.  NATIONAL REPORTER BETSY JIBBEN TALKED WITH FARMERS WHO ARE TRYING TO SAVE THEIR FARMS AND HERDS FROM THE QUICKLY RISING WATER.
CLINTON, FARMERS IN TEXAS, ARKANSAS, AND LOUSIANA ARE DEALING WITH THESE HISTORIC FLOOD WATERS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVE-PORT, LOUSIANA IS CALLING THIS A 'HISTORIC FLASH FLOODING EVENT.'  HERE ARE SOME PICTURES LOUSIANA PRODUCERS SENT TO US.
IN THE WAKE OF FLOODING, FARMERS MOVE TO SAVE WHAT THEY CAN:
OIL CITY, LOUSIANA COW-CALF PRODUCER, MARTY WOOL-DRIDGE SAYS HE'S RECEIVED 12 TO 19 INCHES OF WATER. HE HAS OVER 300 HEAD OF CATTLE. HE'S NOW LOCATING CATTLE FROM THE RIVER BOTTOM AND MOVING THEM TO HIGHER GROUND. HE SAYS LUCKILY, HIS BINS ARE FULL WITH CUSTOM MADE-FEED.
PITCH TO CROP COMMENTS:
CINDI CLAWSON JOINS US NOW WITH A LOOK AT TODAY'S CROP COMMENTS AND A LOOK AHEAD DURING PLANTING SEASON. CINDI.
CROP COMMENTS:
GOOD MORNING CLINTON. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SAID THURSDAY THAT LA NIÑA CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO EMERGE UNTIL FALL. UNTIL THEN EL NIÑO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND UNTIL LATE SPRING OR EVEN EARLY SUMMER. THEIR METEOROLOGISTS SAY THERE'S ABOUT A 50-PERCENT CHANCE THAT LA NINA WILL DEVELOP AFTER EL NINO DWINDLES, AT THIS POINT. LOOKING AT THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK, IT SHOWS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVEAVERAGE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. BUT BELOWAVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MIDWEST AND PART OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS SPRING.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, TYNE MORGAN AND BRIAN GRETE TALK HOG MARKETS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR SPRING. FLORIDA'S FAMED ORANGE INDUSTRY IS IN "CRISIS" MODE AS IT ASKS EPA FOR HELP. AND LATER WITH CONCERNS ABOUT MOSQUITOS AND ZIKA VIRUS SPREADING, WE'LL SEE HOW SOME MISSOURI RESEARCHERS ARE PREPARING TO FIGHT BACK.
CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS LETS GET A LOOK AT WHERE MARKETS TRADED THURSDAY.  FOR THAT WE HEAD OVER THE CME FLOOR IN CHICAGO. HAPPY THURSDAY TO YOU FROM THE CME FLOOR HERE IN CHICAGO. I'M OLIVER SLOUP WITH II TRADER AND YOUR GRAIN MARKET UPDATE. WE SEE SOME GREEN ACROSS THE BOARD WHICH IS NICE TO SEE A LITTLE FOOTING COMING IN WHICH IS SOME SHORT-COVERING AND PREMIUM WITH WEATHER COMING IN. AFTER WHAT WAS DETERMINED TO BE A DUD OF A USDA-WASDE REPORT YESTERDAY. 
PROFARMER:
TYNE MORGAN JOINS US WITH MORE ON WHERE THE DIRECTION THESE MARKETS ARE MOVING. WE ARE HERE NOW WITH BRIAN GRETE OF PROFARMER. LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS HOG MARKET. DO YOU THINK WE ACTUALLY HAVE SOME EXCITING NEWS POSSIBLY COMING OUT OF CHINA?> I DO WHEN WE LOOK AT THE HOG MARKET IT HAS BEEN STRONG AND RESILIENT BUT I THINK WE HAVE SOME MORE DEMAND COMING PROBABLY FORM WHAT I HAVE BEEN HEARING FORM INDUSTRY SOURCES ON THE DEMAND SIDE OF THINGS FROM CHINA AND THEY WILL PROBABLY SOURCE IT THROUGH SMITH FIELD, WHICH THEY OWN, SO IT'S U.S. PORK GOING OUT WHICH SOMEWHAT CHINESE OWNED.> THAT WAS MY QUESTION: WHAT GIVES US THE COMPETITIVE EDGE VERSUS SOME OF OUR COMPETITORS?
TEASE:
UP NEXT, A LOOK AT THE CHANGING PERSPECTIVES ON GMO LABELING...AS THE SENTATE PREPARES TO TAKE UP THE ISSUE NEXT WEEK. AND LATER, WARM WEATHER ALSO BRING MOSQUITOS TO FARM COUNTRY. WE'LL LOOK AT HOW RESEARCHERS IN MISSOURI ARE PREPARING TO BATTLE THE ZIKA VIRUS. GET THE ROOTS YOUR CROPS NEED, BY GETTING RADIATE FIRST.
SENATE TO DECIDE GMO LABELING FRAMEWORK:
STARTING NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS LIKE THE SENATE COULD TAKE UP THE ISSUE OF LABELING GMO'S IN FOOD. SENATE HOPING TO TAKE UP THE MEASURE BEFORE THE EASTER RECESS ON MARCH 18TH. THE HAGSTROM REPORT INDICATING THAT SENATE LEADERS ARE MOVING TOWARD MANDATORY DISCLOSURE OF GMO'S.  THAT'S WHAT AG SECRETARY TOM VILSACK HAS BEEN ADVOCATING.
IT USES SMART LABELS AND QR CODES TO GIVE DETAILS ABOUT WHAT'S IN A PRODUCT. THE BILL WOULD ALSO LIKELY BAN STATE LABELING LAWS.
GENERAL MILLS TO COMMIT TO ORGANICALLY GROWN CROPS:
CEREAL MAKER GENERAL MILLS INTENDS TO MAKE A BIG COMMITTMENT TOWARDS ORGANICALLY-GROWN CROPS.  THE COMPANY PLANS TO PUSH-UP ITS TIMELINE ON COMMITTING TO ORGANIC ACREAGE. GENERAL MILLS SAYS IT EXPECTS TO MEET ITS GOAL OF A QUARTER MILLION ACRES BY 2019. THE SWITCH IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO COMPANY GOALS TO GROW NET SALES FOR ITS NATURAL AND ORGANIC PRODUCTS. G-M SAYS IT HAS INCREASED THE ORGANIC ACREAGE IT USES FOR INGREDIENTS BY 120-PERCENT SINCE 2009.
FLORIDA SEEKS SPECIAL USE EXEMPTION FROM USDA TO CONTROL “CITRUS GREENING”:
FLORIDA'S COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE HAS ISSUED A 'CRISIS DECLARATION' TO THE E-P-A OVER "CITRUS GREENING" WHICH IS DEVASTATING THE STATE'S FAMED ORANGE GROVES.  COMMISSIONER ADAM PUTNAM SAYS THE DECLARATION WOULD ALLOW FOR THE TEMPORARY USE OF THREE TREATMENTS THAT HAVE SHOWN PROMISE IN CONTROLLING CITRUS GREENING. THOSE TREATMENTS HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED REGULATORY APPROVAL SO THE STATE IS SEEKING A 'SPECIAL USE" EXEMPTION. THE AG COMMISSIONER SAYS FLORIDA'S FORECAST OF 71 MILLION BOXES OF ORANGES THIS YEAR IS 70-PERCENT SMALLER SINCE THE PEAK PRODUCTION YEAR IN 1997.
TEASE:
 THE PHRASE "GENETICALLY MODIFIED" STIRS-UP HEATED DEBATE. BUT THAT SCIENCE COULD ALSO KEEP YOU SAFE FROM THE DEVASTATING MOSQUITO VIRUS. WE'LL EXPLAIN, WHEN WE COMEBACK.
IN THE COUNTRY:
AS SPRING PLANTING GETS UNDERWAY IN THE SOUTH, FARMERS ARE EXPOSED TO MOSQUITOES. AND WITH THE THREAT OF THE ZIKA VIRUS, THERE'S MORE THAN A CONCERN ABOUT AN ITCHY WELT ON YOUR ARM. IN THIS REPORT PROVIDED THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI HEALTH SYSTEM, KENT FADDIS TELLS US HOW THEIR RESEARCHERS ARE ARMING THEMSELVES WITH DIFFERENT STRATEGIES TO BATTLE THE MYSTERIES OF ZIKA.
EDUCATION MIGHT JUST BE THE BEST DEFENSE AGAINST THE ZIKA VIRUS FOR ORFORD AND OTHER PREGNANT WOMEN AROUND THE WORLD. FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI, KENT FADDIS REPORTING. )
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR BETSY JIBBEN,,TYNE MORGAN, AND CINDI CLAWSON. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. MONDAY ON AGDAY MACHINERY PETE SHARES SOME OF THE BEST USED FARM EQUIPMENT DEALS FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY. PLUS, THE SENATE LAUNCHES "RULES OF THE AIR" LEGISLATION FOR DRONE USE. WATCH ME WEEKDAYS ON AGDAY.

 

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