AgDay Daily Recap -March 17, 2016

March 17, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
MARCH 17, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY A NEW SURVEY IS OUT ON PLANTING INTENTIONS.
WE'LL LOOK AT WHICH CROPS ARE GAINING AND WHICH ONES COULD LOSE ACREAGE.
IN AGRIBUSINESS...PRICE EXPECTATIONS FOR 2016 CROPS.
"I DON’T THINK THE PRICE IS SO MUCH A PROBLEM IT’S OUR INPUTS THAT GO INTO IT."
COULD WE SEE A RUN IN CATTLE PRICES THIS SPRING?
AND TAKING THE CLASSROOM OUTDOORS IN KENTUCKY.
ALLENDALE RELEASES UPDATED ACREAGE SURVEY:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. AHEAD OF USDA'S END OF MONTH--PLANTING INTENTIONS REPORT, ALLENDALE INC. RELEASING ITS OWN UPDATED ACREAGE SURVEY.
CORN, SOYBEAN NUMBERS:
IT'S PROJECTING A DROP IN SOYBEAN ACREAGE WILL STILL PRODUCE THE THIRD LARGEST SOYBEAN CROP EVER. ITS PRODUCER ACREAGE SURVEY TALLIES RESULTS FROM PRODUCERS IN 25 STATES THROUGH MID MARCH. OUT OF THOSE SURVEYED, ALLENDALE FINDING CORN ACRES PROJECTED ON JUST OVER 90 MILLION ACRES. THAT'S UP NEARLY 2 AND HALF MILLION ACRES OVER 2015...MAKING IT THE SIXTH LARGEST CROP IN THE 10 YEARS.
THIRD LARGEST SOYBEAN CROP EXPECTED:
PRODUCERS TELLING ALLENDALE THEY PLAN TO LOWER SOYBEAN ACRES... TO JUST SHY OF 83 MILLION ACRES. WHILE DOWN FROM LAST YEAR, IT WOULD STILL BE THE THIRD LARGEST BEAN CROP EVER RECORDED.
WHEAT PREDICTED TO BE LOWEST RECORDED SINCE 1970:
AND WHEAT STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST LOSER IN 2016...DOWN NEARLY 3 MILLION ACRES FROM 2015. IF IT HOLDS, THAT WOULD BE THE SMALLEST ALL WHEAT ACREAGE SINCE 1970.
PRODUCERS TALK:
IN TALKING WITH PRODUCERS THIS WINTER, MANY SAY PRICE IS HELPING DRIVE DECISIONS. HOWEVER, WITH ALL COMMODITIES LOWER THE MARGIN BETWEEN IS NARROWING--PUSHING MANY BACK TO THEIR REGULAR ROTATIONS.

<"RIGHT NOW WER'E PROBABLY LOOKING AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF OUR ACRES BEING IN SOYBEANS JUST BECAUSE WE RAISE A LOT OF CORN LAST YEAR WITH IT BEING AN EARLY YEAR.">
WHEAT GROWERS NERVOUS OVER LOW TEMPERATURE ANTICIPATION:
WHEAT GROWERS ARE GETTING NERVOUS... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK CALLS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST THAT COULD THREATEN AN EARLY-EMERGED WINTER WHEAT CROP.
STORMS HELP TO REPLENISH RESERVOIRS IN CALIFORNIA:
A WEEKEND OF HEAVY STORMS IS HELPING FILL TWO OF CALIFORNIA'S LARGEST RESERVOIRS. THE STATE'S CHIEF WATER REGULATOR IS CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THE DROUGHT MAY BE FINALLY EASING UP. THAT COULD PROMPT THE GOVERNMENT TO EASE THE STRICT WATER MANDATES IN THE STATE.
SHASTA LAKE WATER SURPASSES HISTORIC AVERAGE:
JUST THIS WEEKEND, SHASTA LAKE, WHICH IS THE STATE'S LARGEST RESERVOIR, SURPASSED ITS HISTORIC AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THAT'S THE FIRST TIME THIS HAS HAPPENED SINCE 2013.
DROUGHT IS STILL NOT OVER FOR CALIFORNIA:
HE SAYS THE BAD THING IS THAT AFTER FOUR YEARS OF DROUGHT, IT'S GOING TO TAKE MORE THAN JUST A NORMAL YEAR OF RAINFALL TO REPLENISH THE STATE'S WATER RESERVES. THE BAD NEWS, APRIL OFTEN SIGNALS THE END OF THE GOLDEN STATE'S RAINY SEASON.
VOLUNTARY GMO LABELING BILL KILL BY SENATE:
THE SENATE BLOCKED A BILL THAT WOULD HAVE SET A NATIONAL VOLUNTARY GMO LABELING STANDARD FOR FOODS AND KEPT STATES LIKE VERMONT FROM SETTING ITS OWN RULES.
STANDARD IF FOOD COMPANIES FAILED TO MAKE SUFFICIENT INFORMATION AVAILABLE THROUGH A VOLUNTARY LABELING STANDARD. A CLOTURE VOTE ON PAT ROBERTS' BILL, WHICH REQUIRED 60 VOTES FOR PASSAGE, FAILED 48-49. THE REVISED BILL INCLUDED A MANDATORY LABELING PROGRAM IF THE MARKET DID NOT MOVE TO SOME FORM OF VOLUNTARY DISCLOSURE ON THEIR OWN.
HOPE FOR STANDARD REGULATION IN GMO LABELING:
<"I HOPE THAT WE CAN STILL PREEMPT UNDER THE CONSITITUTIONAL POWER OF CONGRESS TO REGULATE INTERSTATE COMMERCE SO WE HAVE ONE RULE FOR ALL 50 STATES. OTHERWISE IT'S GOING TO BE PRACTICIALLY IMPOSSIBLE.">

AFBF PRESIDENT ANGRY AT DECISION:
AMERICAN FARM BUREAU FEDERATION PRESIDENT, ZIPPY DUVALL RELEASING A STATEMENT: "TO SAY WE ARE ANGRY WITH THOSE SENATORS WHO ABANDONED FARMERS AND RANCHERS AND TURNED THEIR BACKS ON RURAL AMERICA ON THIS VOTE IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT....WE REMAIN HOPEFUL THEY WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT REDEMPTION BY CORRECTING THIS SITUATION."
CROP COMMENTS:
ROW CROP FARMERS FROM NEBRASKA TO TEXAS ARE DOING SOME WORK IN THE FIELDS. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS AN UPDATE IN THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS.
STARTING OFF IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, DOUG SAATHOFF SAYS HE'S IN THE FIELD DOING A LITTLE BIT OF EVERYTHING. THAT'S INCLUDING PUTTING ON FERTILIZER, CHOPPING CORN STALKS AND SOME TILLAGE WORK.
TEASE:
ALRIGHT WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL DIG INTO 2016 PRICE EXPECTATIONS AS SPRING PLANTING ROLLS ON.  AND LATER, LEARNING BEYOND THE CLASSROOM. THIS KENTUCKY TOWN IS USING THE GREAT OUTDOORS TO HELP TEACH KIDS LESSONS ON LIFE AND SCIENCE.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS MARKETS HAVE BEEN ON A BUMPY RIDE THE LAST WEEK OR TWO.
LETS SEE HOW THINGS CLOSED FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO.
I STILL BELIEVE THAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE NEW CONTRACT LOWS IN BOTH SOYBEANS AND CORN BEFORE WE CAN ACTUALLY GET ANY MOMENTUM TO THE UPSIDE. NOW WE'RE NOT THAT FAR AWAY FROM THERE. NOW AGAIN I'M NOT THAT BEARISH AT ALL. I'M JUST LOOKING FOR A BETTER SPOT OR A BETTER ENTRY. THE WHOLE KEY HERE IS WHERE AM I GOING TO GET IN. NOW IF YOU'RE ALREADY HOLDING YOU'RE A PRODUCER OR A FARMER I RECOMMEND THAT YOU'RE HEDGED AND YOU SHOULDN'T HAVE WORRY ABOUT IT. THIS IS TODD BUBBA HORWITZ FROM BUBBA TRADING DOT COM COMING TO YOU FROM THE CME TRADING FLOOR IN CHICAGO.
AGRIBUSINESS:
IN ANALYSIS THIS MORNING, TYNE MORGAN JOINS US WITH A CLOSER LOOK AT PRICE EXPECTATIONS FOR 2016.
HERE NOW WITH ANDY SHISSLER OF S&W TRADING. ANDY, LET'S LOOK AT 2016. WHAT IS YOUR OUTLOOK ON GRAIN PRICES THIS YEAR?> WELL, I THINK THE OUTLOOK ON GRAIN PRICES IS GOING TO BE TIED REALLY TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THIS RENTAL MARKET RIGHT NOW. WE HAVE A LOT OF GUYS LOOKING TO GET THEIR LOANS. SOME GUYS HAVEN'T GOT OPERATING LOANS YET. YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR SEED, YOU HAVE TO PAY FOR FERTILIZER, AND THE LAND RENTS ARE STILL TOO HIGH. I'M SEEING A SHUFFLE OF LAND RENTS IN IOWA AND INTO MINNESOTA. I DON'T KNOW IF WE ARE GETTING AFFECTED UP HERE, BUT ILLINOIS NOT SO MUCH, BECAUSE WE HAVE HEARD OF A COUPLE OF BIG GUYS GOING DOWN, BUT FARM CREDIT FOR THE MOST PART IS BACKING IT, BUT A LOT OF THE PRIVATE LOANS IN IOWA--I DON'T THINK THE PRICE IS SO MUCH A PROBLEM IT IS OUR INPUTS THAT GO INTO IT  AND SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE AT 3.80 CORN AND SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRADE WITHIN 20-30 CENTS OF THIS 3.80 MARK IN CORN FOR THE NEXT YEAR AND IT SHOULD BE OK, BUT SOMETHING HAS TO SHAKE UP THE LAND ROW MARKET AND I THINK THAT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. WE HAVE ALWAYS NEEDED TO CHANGE THAT AROUND AND DO RENTS NEED TO BE CUT BY $100, $200 AN ACRE?>
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, FOLKS ARE STILL TRYING TO DEAL WITH THAT RAIN IN THE SOUTH. WE ARE TRYING TO SORT OUT SPRING AND WINTER. YEAH, THAT'S RIGHT. THERE IS NO ORGANIZATION THERE NOW WITH THAT FRONT IN THE GULF COAST. SOME AREAS ARE GETTING MORE RAIN AS YOU CAN SEE THERE. WE ALSO HAVE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS FARTHER NORTH. THAT'S MAINLY IN THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH SOME SNOW THERE FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND INTO THE U-P OF MICHIGAN.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. WE'LL HEAD TO PROVO, UTAH, FIRST OF ALL, PARTLY SUNNY AND CHILLY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 55. NATCHEZ, LOUISIANA, A COUPLE OF SHOWERS, MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM, A HIGH OF 79. AND KINGSTON, NEW YORK, BECOMING CLOUDY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY. THE HIGH IS 60.
TEASE:
COULD A SPRING RALLY BE HEADED TO CATTLE COUNTRY.  WE'LL LOOK AT THE DEMAND DRIVEN INDICATORS.  AND LATER, LIFE LESSONS FROM NATURE'S CLASSROOM.
PROFIT TRACKER:
IN OUR DROVERS TV REPORT, THE STERLING PROFIT TRACKER TURNING HEADS THIS WEEK. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN A YEAR, AVERAGE CATTLE FEEDING LOSSES ARE BELOW THE TRIPLE DIGIT THRESHOLD. LOSSES COMING AT 76 DOLLARS PER HEAD--A 65 DOLLAR IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK....AND NEARLY 250 DOLLARS BETTER THAN JUST A MONTH AGO.
RISING TEMPERATURES BRING PRICES UP:
PART OF THAT IMPROVEMENT WAS A BETTER THAN 2 DOLLAR RALLY IN CASH CATTLE PRICES. USDA'S 5-AREA DIRECT CASH PRICE TOPPING $138 PER HUNDRED.  ON THE FUTURE'S BOARD, PRICES CLIMBING AS WELL. ANALYSTS SAY SPRING DEMAND IS PICKING UP.

THE WARM WEATHER THAT SPREAD ACROSS THE COUNTRY HAS REALLY SPARKED THE MARKET AND PRODUCERS ARE VERY HAPPY TO SEE THAT CONSUMERS ARE GOING TO THE GROCERY STORE AND BUYING MORE STEAKS AND BURGERS.
WARM WEATHER EXPECTED TO HELP FUNDAMENTALS:
THAT'S EXPECTED TO HELP FUNDAMENTALS OVER THE NEXT SIX WEEKS. SUPPLIES OF FED CATTLE EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AND BOX BEEF DEMAND PICKING UP AS STORES PREPARE FOR THE POST EASTER RUSH. CHOICE BOXED BEEF CLIMBING MORE THAN 10 DOLLARS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
SELECT BOXES HOWEVER NOT MOVING QUITE AS FAST. THE SPREAD RELATIVELY WIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ANALYSTS SAY IT'S AN INDICATION LIVE CATTLE PRICES COULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR TERM.
BEEF PRODUCTION UP, BUT OUTLOOK REMAINS THE SAME:
HOWEVER STERLING MARKETING PRESIDENT JOHN KNEVLICAKA WARNS THAT CATTLE SLAUGHTER HAS BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 2 PERCENT HIGHER THIS YEAR COMPARED TO LAST AND STEER AND HEIFER CARCASS WEIGHTS ARE STILL WELL ABOVE LAST YEAR. THE EARLY WIDENING OF THE CHOICE SELECT SPREAD DOES NOT CHANGE THE BEEF MARKETS LONGER TERM OUTLOOK WHICH CALLS FOR ABOUT 4 PERCENT MORE BEEF PRODUCTION THIS YEAR AND GREAT COMPETITION FROM INCREASING SUPPLIES OF PORK AND POULTRY.
WHAT 2015 GRADING TRENDS MEAN FOR CATTLE PRODUCERS IN 2016: 
SPEAKING OF BOXED BEEF, BOB CERVERA WITH CERTIFIED ANGUS BEEF AND THE AMERICAN ANGUS ASSOCIATION LOOKS AT GRADING TRENDS IN 2015 AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR CATTLE PRODUCERS IN 2016. DRAMATIC. THAT'S A PRETTY ACCURATE DESCRIPTION OF THE 2015 LIVE CATTLE AND BEEF TRADE.  PAUL DYKSTRA TRACKS MARKET TRENDS ON A WEEKLY BASIS AND REFLECTS ON LAST YEAR'S BEEF QUALITY AND PRICES….DYSTRA: "THE CHOICE BOX PRICE IN 2015 WAS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO WHAT IT WAS ON AVERAGE FOR 2014 BUT THE WILD SWINGS WITHIN THAT RANGE OR THAT CREATE THE RANGE AROUND THAT ARE WHAT WE ARE REALLY TALKING ABOUT AND IT'S CERTAINLY MORE DRAMATIC THAN ANYTHING WE'VE SEEN IN A VERY LONG TIME IN THE BUSINESS."
I'M BOB CERVERA.
TEASE:
THANKS BOB.  WHEN AGDAY RETURNS WE'LL HIKE INTO KENTUCKY'S GREAT OUTDOORS AS TEACHERS TURN TRAILS INTO CLASSROOMS.
IN THE COUNTRY:
SOMETIMES LEARNING HAPPENS NOT BEHIND A DESK BUT IN THE GREAT OUTDOORS.  JUNIOR HIGH STUDENTS IN ONE KENTUCKY TOWN ARE EXPLORING IN NEAR NATIONAL FORESTS AND RECREATION AREAS..AS PART OF CLASS.  JEFF FRANKLIN FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY TAKES US ALONG ON THE TREK.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE  GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND TYNE MORGAN. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. FRIDAY ON AGDAY...AS EXPECTATIONS FOR WHEAT ACRES FALL WE'LL LOOK AT WHY AND WHAT THE MARKET SAYS ABOUT THE FUTURE.
ALL THAT AND YOUR NATIONAL FARM COUNTRY FORECAST.
JOIN ME FRIDAY FOR AGDAY.

 

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