AgDay Daily Recap -March 23, 2016

March 23, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
MARCH 23, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -
FARMERS WEIGH IN ON LOWER INCOME.
“I'M MICHELLE ROOK.  2016 IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER YEAR OF LOWER NET FARM INCOME, LARGELY DUE TO LOWER COMMODITY PRICES…..BUT ARE WE BORDERING ON A FARM CRISIS?  I'LL HAVE THE ANSWER TODAY ON AGDAY."
IN AGRIBUSINESS- WHAT'S NUDGING THE GRAIN MARKETS?
 "I THINK THE FUNDS ARE NOW GETTING IN THE POSITION TO GET AN INFLATION PUSH."
AND WE JOURNEY TO A SMALL TOWN WHERE IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO GRAB A PIZZA AND BEER.
 FARM SECTOR PROFITABILITY EXPECTED TO DECLINE IN 2016:
GOOD MORNING I'M BETSY JIBBEN. CLINTON IS ON ASSIGNMENT. FARM SECTOR PROFITABILITY IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT YEAR IN 2016.
USDA IS PROJECTING NET FARM INCOME WILL HIT JUST  UNDER 55-BILLION DOLLARS, DOWN 3 PERCENT FROM 2015. IF REALIZED, 2016 NET FARM INCOME WOULD BE A DROP OF 56 PERCENT FROM ITS HIGH OF 123-BILLION IN 2013.
INSIGHTS ON THE FINANCIAL STATE OF THE FARM SECTOR:
THIS HAS MADE THE LOAN RENEWAL SEASON A CHALLENGE FOR SOME GROWERS, BUT JUST WHAT IS THE FINANCIAL STATE OF THE FARM SECTOR? AGDAY'S MICHELLE ROOK TALKED TO FARMERS AND INDUSTRY EXPERTS TO GET THEIR THOUGHTS AND INSIGHT.
GRAIN PRICES KEEP FALLING:
FARMERS ARE BRACING THEMSELVES FOR ANOTHER YEAR OF NEGATIVE FARM INCOME…DUE IN LARGE PART TO GRAIN PRICES WHICH ARE EVEN LOWER THAN 2015.  CHUCK WHITE, IOWA FARMER, "YOU KNOW LOOK AT OVERALL PROFITABILITY ITS GONNA BE TOUGH FOR MAYBE THE NEXT YEAR OR SO."
MANY FARMERS ARE PLANTING AT BELOW BREAK EVEN:
 ALAN BRUGLER, BRUGLER MARKETING, "YEAH I THINK THE CASH IS A LITTLE TIGHT, WORKING CAPITAL PROJECTIONS ARE NEGATIVE." THE AG BANKING COMMUNITY IS SEEING THIS FIRST HAND DURING THE RENEWAL SEASON AND MANY BALANCE SHEETS SHOW FARMERS PLANTING A CROP AT BELOW BREAKEVEN.

CASH BURN:
 DICK POE, FARM CREDIT MID-AMERICA, "WE CALL THAT CASH BURN AND THAT'S A PERIOD OF TIME WHEN YOU KNOW WE'RE WE'VE GOT OPERATIONS THAT ARE GONNA GO INTO NEXT YEAR WHERE THEY'RE NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO COVER THE COST OF PRODUCTION AND FIXED COST ON THIS CROP." 
 FARMERS REMAIN OPTIMISTIC:
BUT YOUNG OR OLD ALIKE….FARMERS ARE ETERNAL OPTIMISTS AND THEY BELIEVE THEY'LL ENDURE THIS LATEST DOWNTURN.  WHITE, "FARMERS WE ARE VERY GOOD BUSINESSMAN AND WE CAN MAKE THE RIGHT DECISIONS ON WHAT TO DO TO STAY PROFITABLE….WE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH." I'M MICHELLE ROOK REPORTING FOR AGDAY.
COMMODITY PRICES GREATEST CHALLENGE FOR AG PRODUCERS IN 2016:
A NEW POLL RELEASED THIS WEEK BY FARM CREDIT LENDERS INDICATES 64-PERCENT IDENTIFIED COMMODITY PRICES AS THE GREATEST CHALLENGE FACING AG PRODUCERS IN 2016.
THE CEOS OF THE ROW CROP GROUPS UNDERSTAND 2016 IS ALREADY STACKING UP TO BE A TOUGH YEAR. THEY SAY THEY'RE ALREADY IN TALKS WITH GROWERS  ABOUT FARM INCOME, THE RURAL ECONOMY AND IMPORTANCE OF FARM POLICY.
CROP PROGRESS:
IT'S STILL A FEW WEEKS TOO EARLY FOR A NATIONAL  CROP PROGRESS REPORT FROM USDA, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL STATES ARE REPORTING ON THEIR FIELD CONDITIONS.
TEXAS:
WE'LL START IN TEXAS WHERE A THIRD OF THE STATE'S CORN CROP IS NOW PLANTED. IT'S TWO POINTS BEHIND THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE OF 31-PERCENT.   THE WINTER WHEAT CROP IS JUST STARTING TO HEAD AT TWO PERCENT. 47-PERCENT OF THE WINTER WHEAT IS DESCRIBED AS GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
OKLAHOMA:
IN OKLHOMA, 38-PERCENT OF WINTER WHEAT IS IN THE JOINTING STAGE. THAT'S RIGHT ON PACE WITH THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE.  63-PERCENT OF THAT CROP IS CALLED GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
KANSAS:
IN KANSAS -20-PERCENT OF WINTER WHEAT IS NOW IN THE JOINTING STAGE. THAT'S WELL AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE OF SEVEN PERCENT.  57-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT.  WE''LL BE MONITORING THE CROP PROGRESS REPORT TO SEE IF THERE'S A CHANGE TO THE KANSAS WHEAT CONDITION.
COLD WEATHER MIGHT DAMAGE WHEAT:
OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES FELL BELOW 24DEGREES. THAT'S THE THRESHOLD WHICH THERE CAN BE DAMAGE TO THE WHEAT IN ITS JOINTING STAGES. 
K-STATE AGRONOMISTS SAY COUNTIES ALONG THE  WESTERN BORDER WERE EXPOSED TO AS MANY AS 27 HOURS BELOW 24 DEGREES.  AND IN GENERAL, THE WESTERN HALF OF KANSAS HAD MORE THAN ELEVEN HOURS AT THOSE LOW TEMPS.
CROP COMMENTS:
WELL SOME AREAS OF THE CORN BELT MAY SEE SOME RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS AN UPDATE IN THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS.
GOOD MORNING, BETSY.
LET'S START OFF IN WESTERN ILLINOIS.
TEASE:
NEXT IN ANALYSIS WE'LL SEE WHY THERE'S BEEN A BIT OF AN UPSIDE IN THE GRAIN MARKETS.  AND IN A STATE KNOWN FOR ITS BEER, VOTERS IN THIS WISCONSIN TOWN WILL SOON DECIDE WHETHER TO OPEN-THE-TAP OR KEEP IT ALCOHOL-FREE.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
NOW LET'S HEAD TO CHICAGO FOR TUESDAY'S CME REPORT.
GRAINS SHOWING SOME FIRMNESS TODAY. REALLY BEING LED BY THE SOYBEANS OR AT LEAST TODAY BY THE SOYBEANS. THERE HAS BEEN A DOCK STRIKE IN BRAZIL. THAT'S A ONE DAY DOCK STRIKE WHICH IS A LITTLE REASON FOR THE BUYING THROUGH HERE. THEN IT'S A TRIP FOR SOME MOVING AVERAGES THROUGH HERE. IN PARTICULAR WE'RE TALKING THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE HERE. THAT HAS CREATED A WAVE OF FUN BUYING IN THE MARKET HERE TODAY.
AGRIBUSINESS:
THERE'S BEEN A LITTLE UPSIDE IN THE GRAIN MARKET LATELY. CLINTON GRIFFITHS LOOKS AT THE FACTORS THAT ARE PUSHING THAT IN THIS MORNING'S ANALYSIS.
BILL BIEDERMANN, ALLENDALE INCORPORATED OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK THIS MORNING. BILL, OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO, WE’VE SEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A RALLY IN COMMODITIES, BUT ALL WE’VE HEARD IS BEARISH NEWS OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS. WHAT GIVES AND WHY DID WE SEE THAT? I THINK IT’S SAFE TO SAY THE BOTTOM IS IN.
NATIONAL WEATHER:

 WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE YOU MENTIONED IT EARLIER IN CROP COMMENTS AND I HATE TO BRING IT UP AGAIN. THERE'S A POSSIBILITY OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS, WHERE DO YOU THINK WE MAY SEE THIS NOW? IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN, CENTRAL PLAINS ON INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THAT WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW. IT IS MARCH AND THAT DOES HAPPEN. WE CAUTION PEOPLE TO NOT GET STARTED ON THINGS TOO SOON. AND THERE'S GOOD REASON FOR THAT THIS YEAR.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR EUGENE, OREGON, IT'S VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IS 58 DEGREES. WINNER, SOUTH DAKOTA, CLOUDY AND WINDY. A BIT OF SNOW. THE HIGH IS 37 AND KNOXVILLE, TENNESSEE IS PARTLY SUNNY, BREEZY AND MILD. THE HIGH IS AROUND 70.
TEASE:
WHEN AGDAY CONTINUES, MEET THE NEW CHIEF OF NCBA. PLUS, WE'LL VISIT A QUAINT VILLAGE IN WISCONSIN THAT'S ONE OF THE LAST HOLD-OUTS OF BEING "DRY". LATER, ON IN THE COUNTRY.
NCBA GETS NEW BOSS:
THE NATIONAL CATTLEMEN'S BEEF ASSOCIATION HAS A NEW BOSS. THE NCBA HAS NAMED KENDAL FRAZIER ITS NEW CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER.  FRAZIER HAS BEEN IN THE IN-TER-IM ROLE SINCE JUNE OF LAST YEAR. HE JOINED THE ASSOCIATION IN 1985.
FRAZIER WAS RAISED ON A DIVERSIFIED CATTLE AND GRAIN OPERATION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. HE IS A GRADUATE OF KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY.  KENDAL IS A FORMER FARM BROADCASTER IN KANSAS.
MARS CANDY WILL LABEL GMO INGREDIENTS:
CANDY-MAKER MARS ANNOUNCING ITS LABELING ALL PRODUCTS CONTAINING GMO INGREDIENTS. THE CANDYMAKER OWNS MANY OF THE TOP U-S BRANDS, LIKE SNICKERS, M-AND-M'S AND TWIX.
MARS IS FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF CAMPBELL SOUP AND GENERAL MILLS-BOTH COMPANIES VOWING TO LABEL ITS PRODUCTS. THE COMPANIES SAY THEY WILL START COMPLYING WITH VERTMONT'S GMO LABLEING REQUIREMENTS THAT'S SET TO TAKE EFFECT IN JULY.
TEASE:
UP NEXT, WE'LL VISIT A WISCONSIN TOWN THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE PIZZA AND A BEER AT THE LOCAL HANG-OUT.  DETAILS WHEN WE COME BACK.

IN THE COUNTRY:
WHEN YOU THINK OF WISCONSIN, CHANCES ARE YOU'RE THINKING ABOUT THEIR WORLD FAMOUS CHEESE, BRATWURST AND BEER, BUT BELIEVE IT OR NOT, THERE ARE STILL TOWNS IN WISCONSIN THAT DO NOT ALLOW LIQUOR SALES OF ANY KIND.
BUT THAT COULD ALL CHANGE IN A COUPLE WEEKS, WHEN VOTERS IN THE SMALL TOURIST VILLAGE OF EPHRAIM DECIDE WHETHER TO ERASE THE ALCOHOL BAN THAT'S BEEN IN PLACE SINCE 1853. CARRIE ANTLFINGER HAS OUR STORY.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M BETSY JIBBEN. THURSDAY ON AGDAY WE'LL HAVE OUR WEEKLY BEEF REPORT FROM OUR PARTNERS AT DROVERS T-V. IN ANALYSIS WE'LL GET MARKET INSIGHT FROM ALLENDALE INCORPORATED. WATCH US WEEKDAYS FOR AGDAY.

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