AgDay Daily Recap -March 31, 2016

March 31, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
MARCH 31, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
TODAY ON AGDAY -USDA'S PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS ARE DUE OUT LATER TODAY. PLUS, NEW EARWORM RESEARCH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THIS PROBLEM PEST. IN AGRIBUSINESS....MANAGING BREAKEVENS IN 2016. IN HIGH INPUT SITUATIONS IT IS DEFINITELY STRETCHING PEOPLE THIN AND IT IS CAUSING A LOT OF CONCERN AND FOR GOOD REASONS. AND MEET A TEXAS COUPLE WHO RISKED THEIR OWN LIVES TO PROTECT THEIR LIVESTOCK EVEN AS FLOOD WATERS CHARGED THEIR FARM.
USDA RELEASES REPORTS TODAY:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. ALL EYES WILL BE ON USDA TODAY AS IT RELEASES TWO KEY REPORTS THAT WILL SET THE TONE FOR THE MARKET FOR THE MONTHS AHEAD. THE AG DEPARTMENT WILL RELEASE ITS PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS AND QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS REPORTS AT NOON EASTERN. AS WE'VE BEEN REPORTING FOR SOME TIME, THERE'S A HIGH NUMBER OF GRAIN BUSHELS IN STORAGE. TRADERS ARE WONDERING WHAT USDA ANALYSTS COULD DO WITH THOSE FIGURES.
FARMERS PLANS FOR THE SEASON:
THE ACREAGE REPORT TYPICALLY GETS THE MOST ATTENTION. DURING LAST MONTHS USDA AG OUTLOOK FORUM, THE AG DEPARTMENT FORECASTED 90 MILLION CORN ACRES, 82-MILLION BEAN ACRES AND 51-MILLION ALL-WHEAT ACRES, IF THERE'S ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THOSE ESTIMATES, THE MARKET WILL TAKE NOTICE. WE TALKED WITH GROWERS IN THE WESTERN CORN BELT ABOUT THEIR PLANS FOR THIS SEASON.
LA NINA COULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS:
A NEW REPORT FROM AGRIBANK SAYS THE EASTERN CORN BELT COULD BE FACING DRY CONDITIONS THIS YEAR AS EL NINO GIVES WAY TO LA NINA. AGRIBANKS DISTRICT STRETCHES FROM WYOMING TO OHIO. THEIR ANALYSTS EXPECT LA NINA TO RETURN LATER THIS YEAR. THEY'RE EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM MAY TO JULY.
BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ALSO IN THE FORECAST:
THEY'RE ALSO FORECASTING BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THEIR EASTERN DISTRICT WHICH INCLUDES NORTHERN INDIANA, SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND ALL OF OHIO. EVERYONE SAYS WE'RE GOING TO BE DRIER THAN LAST YEAR BECAUSE YOU CAN'T HAVE TWO GOOD WET YEARS IN A ROW. I'M ANTICIPATING MORE OF A DROUGHT. MAYBE WE JUST WON'T GET THE RAINS WE'VE HAD THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS.
HEADWINDS FOR PRICES STILL PREDICTED ACCORDING TO AGRIBANK:
 AS IT PERTAINS TO CROP PRICES, AGRIBANK SAYS THOSE LESS FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT OFFSET CURRENT PRICING HEADWINDS, WHICH INCLUDE THE BUMPER CROPS AND AMPLE GLOBAL CORN AND SOYBEAN STOCKS.
PEST PROBLEM MIGHT HAVE SOLUTION:
CORN EARWORM COSTS PRODUCERS ROUGHLY TWO-BILLION DOLLARS TO CONTROL EACH YEAR. NEW RESEARCH BY A UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY STUDENT IS SHOWING PROMISE IN SOLVING THIS EXPENSIVE PROBLEM. UK'S JEFF FRANKLIN REPORTS.
"IT'S THE NUMBER TWO CROP-DAMAGING PEST IN THE WORLD AND NUMBER ONE IN NORTH AMERICA, CAUSING MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN DAMAGE AND NOT ONLY IN CORN BUT TOMATOES, AND COTTON, AND SORGHUM. IT IS FOUND ON 123 HOSTS SO FAR, IT WILL EAT ANYTHING IT CAN GET ITS HANDS ON."
NUDIVIRUS COULD FOIL PESTS PLANS TO EAT CROPS:
 IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT AN INSECT PEST SO SMALL CAN CREATE SO MUCH DAMAGE, BUT THAT IS THE CASE WITH THE CORN EARWORM, CONSIDERED TO BE THE MOST COSTLY CROP PEST IN NORTH AMERICA. UK STUDENT ALONNA WRIGHT WORKS WITH A GENETICALLY ENGINEERED FORM OF THE NUDIVIRUS. THE NUDIVIRUS IS A SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASE THAT NATURALLY AFFECTS CORN EARWORM MOTHS IN SOME STATES. WHILE WORKING AT PARATECHS, A SMALL BIOTECH COMPANY IN LEXINGTON, WRIGHT, ALONG WITH HER MENTOR KENDRA STEELE, A PARATECHS RESEARCH SCIENTIST CREATED THE GENETICALLY SELECTED FORM OF THE INSECT S-T-D, RESULTS IN ONE-HUNDRED PERECENT STERILITY, WHICH WILL OVERTAKE THE NATURALLY OCCURRING VIRUS IN NATURE.
YOUNG SCIENTIST WINS PRIZE FOR DISCOVERY:
THE PAPER ALONNA WROTE ABOUT THE PROJECT WON HER THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION OF THE ALLTECH YOUNG SCIENTIST PROGRAM. SHE WILL NOW COMPETE FOR THE GLOBAL GRAND PRIZE OF FIVE-THOUSAND DOLLARS AND A FULL FUNDED DOCTORATE. FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND ENVIRONMENT I'M JEFF FRANKLIN REPORTING. THANKS JEFF. UK AND PARA-TECHS HAVE APPLIED FOR A PATENT ON THE TECHNOLOGY. PARATECHS IS ALSO BEGINNING A THREE-YEAR ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION TO SHOW THE VIRUS CAN REDUCE EARWORM POPULATIONS IN THE FIELD.
CROP COMMENTS:
NOW LET'S TURN TO MIKE HOFFMAN WITH A CHECK ON TODAY'S CROP COMMENTS. MIKE.  GOOD MORNING CLINTON. LET'S START OFF IN SOUTHERN KANSAS. PAUL SIMON  SAYS THE CONVOY IS LOADED AND READY TO ROLL FOR MEDICINE LODGE, KANSAS. THE CARAVAN IS HOLDING 329 BALES OF FEED, 950 T-POSTS, 52 ROLLS OF WINE, 80 POWER POLES AND 15 BAGS OF PURPOSE FEED! WELL, HERE'S A PHOTO OF CATTLE ENJOYING A SUNNY DAY IN WESTERN IOWA. THE AREA EXPERIENCED WARM TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE RAINS MOVED IN MID-WEEK. NOW A SET OF CLOUDY, RAINY DAYS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
TEASE:
AND MEET A TEXAS COUPLE WHO PUT THEIR OWN LIVES AT RISK TO PROTECT THEIR LIVESTOCK EVEN AS FLOOD WATERS CHARGED THEIR FARM. DETAILS WHEN WE HEAD IN THE COUNTRY.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS LETS SEE HOW MARKET FINISHED WEDNESDAY. FOR THAT WE HEAD TO THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE GRAINS TODAY. WE'VE HAD QUITE A BIT OF SELLING.  EVERYONE IS ANTICIPATING TOMORROW'S USDA REPORT. THERE'S A LOT OF CONFLICTING REPORTS, CORN, WHEAT AND BEANS. THAT'S SPECIFICALLY THE CORN AND THE SOYBEANS. WE SAW THE SOYBEANS WERE CLOSING DOWN CLOSE TO 5CENTS. THAT'S NOT A BIG MOVE. BUT A LOT OF GUYS HERE ON THE FLOOR ARE TALKING ABOUT IS A LOT OF SELLERS ON THE SIDE-LINE.
AGRIBUSINESS:
TYNE MORGAN JOINS US AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WITH MORE.  WE ARE HERE NOW WITH MATT BENNETT OF BENNETT CONSULTING. MATT, I KNOW THAT YOU HAVE BEEN DOING SOME NUMBER CRUNCHING THIS WINTER AND YOU ARE LOOKING AT BREAKEVEN POINTS FOR PRODUCERS, SO WHAT HAVE YOU FIGURED OUT? WHAT IS THE SITUATION THAT WE ARE FACING IN 2016?> YOU KNOW, LOOKING AT THE INSURANCE PRICE FOR INSTANCE AT 386 MOST GUYS ARE IN A SITUATION THAT THEY ARE PROTECTING QUITE A BIT LESS THAN THEY WERE LAST YEAR AND YOU KNOW, LIKE A 200 APH AT 85 PERCENT YOU ARE PROTECTING ABOUT $50 AN ACRE LESS AND YES WE HAVE SEEN FERTILIZER PRICES BACK OFF A LITTLE BIT, ANHYDROUS IS LOWER IN OUR PART OF THE WORLD, BUT WE CERTAINLY HAVEN'T SEEN THINGS BACK OFF TO THE TUNE OF $50 AN ACRE, SO MOST PEOPLE THAT WE GO AND TALK TO ARE NOT THRILLED WITH 15 INCOME, SO IT IS OBVIOUS WHY THEY HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT 16 AS WELL.> BUT LOOKING AT PRICES ARE MOST OF THESE PRODUCERS FACING BELOW BREAKEVEN AT THIS POINT?>
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY, METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SYSTEM ALL WEEK. THERE'S SOME COLD WIND BEHIND IT. YEAH, THERE'S COLD BEHIND IT. LOTS OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. THERE ARE A LOT OF PROBLEMS WITH THIS STORM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. AND THERE'S A SECONDARY SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND IT. THAT'S COLDER AIR BEHIND THAT SYSTEM. IT'S PUTTING DOWN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL, FOR OLYMPIA WASHINGTON, MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT. THE HIGH IS AROUND 70. VANDALIA, ILLINOIS, WINDY AND WARMER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT COULD EVEN BE HEAVIER SEVERE. THE HIGH IS 73. NEW BEDFORD, IS PARTY SUNNY, WINDY AND MILD. THE HIGH IS 60.
TEASE:
UP NEXT IS OUR DROVERS TV REPORT INCLUDING A LOOK AT NEW STUDY ON CONSUMER CONCERNS WITH ANIMAL CARE. AND MEET SOME FOLKS WHO REPRESENT THE "GIVING SPIRIT" OF AMERICA'S FARMERS, AS THEY, THEMSELVES, RECOVER FROM THE RAVAGES OF A FLOOD. GET THE ROOTS YOUR CROPS NEED, BY GETTING RADIATE FIRST. VISIT LOVELAND PRODUCTS DOT COME SLASH RADIATE. SEE YOUR CPS DEALER TODAY.
PROFIT TRACKER SHOWS LOSS IN CATTLE:
AFTER POSITIVE MOVEMENT ON THE FEEDER FRONT, THE STERLING PROFIT TRACKER TAKING A STEP BACKWARD LAST WEEK. CLOSEOUTS SHOWING AVERAGE LOSSES OF 186 DOLLARS A HEAD...73 DOLLARS WORSE THAN THE PREVIOUS WEEK. ANALYSTS INDICATING THAT HEDGING IS HELPING KEEP SOME OPERATIONS CLOSER TO BREAK-EVEN. A YEAR AGO, FEEDERS WERE MAKING NEARLY 130-DOLLARS PER HEAD. LIVESTOCK ECONOMIST DAVID ANDERSON OF TEXAS A & M SAYS HE EXPECTS CALF PRICES THIS YEAR REMAIN HIGH--HISTORICALLY SPEAKING.
OPTIMISM FOR 2016:
HE'S FORECASTING PRICES OF 5 AND 6-HUNDRED POUND CALVES TO BRING 180 DOLLARS PER HUNDRED. ANDERSON SAYS BETTER PASTURE CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY TIGHT HERD NUMBERS ARE GOING TO HELP PROP PRICES UP IN 2016. A NEW CONSUMER STUDY REVEALS THAT WHERE AND HOW ANIMALS ARE RAISED IS OF MAJOR IMPORTANCE TO MODERN CONSUMERS THE RESEARCH BY THE CENTER FOR FOOD INTEGRITY TALKED 2-THOUSAND MOMS FOODIES AND MILLENIALS --LOOKING AT TRANSPARENCY AND CONSUMER TRUST. THE STUDY FINDS THAT JUST 25 PERCENT OF CONSUMERS STRONGLY AGREE THAT U.S. MEAT COMES FROM HUMANELY TREATED ANIMALS.
TRANSPARENCY KEY TO CONSUMER TRUST:
FARMERS AND FOOD COMPANIES ARE STRUGGLING TO PROVE THEY'RE BEING TRANSPARENT. HOWEVER NEARLY 60 PERCENT OF CONSUMERS SAY THEY HAVE NO PROBLEM EATING MEAT MILK AND EGGS FROM HUMANELY TREATED ANIMALS. THE DISCONNECT NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED 56 PERCENT OF CONSUMERS OF BELIEVE TRANSPARENCY IN ANIMAL CARE BUILDS TRUST. THE BEST WAY TO COMMUNICATE THAT TRUST IS VISUALLY WITH VIDEO'S AND PICTURES. COMMUNICATING THOSE SHARED VALUES ACCORDING TO THE CENTER FOR FOOD INTEGRITY IS UP TO 5 TIMES MORE IMPORTANT THAN JUST SCIENTIFIC FACTS. COMMUNICATION IS KEY AT THE WHITESIDES DAIRY IS RUPERT IDAHO.
TOSS TO FRIDAY’S SHOW:
COMING UP FRIDAY WE'RE TAKING A TOUR OF THIS ELITE OPERATION AS IT BUILDS TOWARD THE FUTURE. FROM TEN LEASED COWS TO SOME 8-THOUSAND, THE WHITESIDES ARE LEVERAGING TECHNOLOGY, GENETICS AND DATA INFORMATION TO CREATE A MODERN OPERATION.  JOINS US FOR THEIR INCREDIBLE STORY THIS FRIDAY ON AGDAY.  STILL TO COME WE HEAD TO SOUTH TEXAS -AN AREA HIT HARD BY VERY HEAVY RAINS.
WE'LL SHOW YOU HOW FAITH AND FRIENDS CAN OVERCOME DEVASTATING FLOODING. FAITH AFTER THE FLOOD.
IN THE COUNTRY:
TEXAS FARMERS, RANCHERS AND COMMUNITIES COME TOGETHER AS RAGING WATERS RECEDE. ED WOLFF WITH THE TEXAS FARM BUREAU HAS MORE. WORST FLOOD EVER. THAT'S WHAT FOLKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SABINE RIVER ARE SAYING. THE RAINS JUST KEEP COMING. BRINGING WITH THEM TORRENTIAL PROBLEMS. AFTER ABOUT 18 INCHES, THE FLOODGATES AT THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR HAD TO BE OPENED. AND TEXANS DOWNSTREAM PAID THE PRICE. "WE'RE ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF THE DAM AND WE WERE JUST OVERCOME WITH WATER HERE." DEVON AND HER HUSBAND ROB RAISE HORSES AND CATTLE IN THE SMALL TOWN OF BON WEIR.  ABOUT 3 MILES WEST OF THE SABINE RIVER, WHICH SEPARATES TEXAS & LOUISIANA.  THIS EAST TEXAS COMMUNITY BECAME A LAKE AS FLOODWATERS ROSE TO 45 FEET.  13 FEET OVER FLOOD STAGE.  TURNING THEIR RANCH INTO A RAGING RIVER.  
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND AL PELL. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. FRIDAY ON AGDAY WE'LL HAVE SPOT-ON ANALYSIS OF THE PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS REPORT FROM OUR PARTNERS AT PROFARMER. AND WE VISIT AN IDAHO DAIRY THAT'S RELYING HEAVILY ON DATA TO MANAGE THEIR MARGINS. JOIN US DAILY RIGHT HERE ON AGDAY.

 

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