AgDay Daily Recap -March 4, 2016

March 4, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
MARCH  4, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -
AG LEADERS EVALUATE THE FARM ECONOMY...
A NORTH DAKOTA RANCHER REMEMBERS A BLIZZARD THAT BROUGHT TURMOIL TO THE GREAT PLAINS.
IN AGRIBUSINESS- MANGING RISK IN TODAY'S MARKET.
AND RESEARCHERS HOPE THE SESAME CROP CAN FIND A NEW HOME, IN THE GROUND OF TENNESSEE.
COMMODITY CLASSIC PITCH:
COVERING COMMODITY CLASSIC IN NEW ORLEANS WHERE HE'S TALKING WITH LEADING AG ECONOMISTS ABOUT THE FINANCIAL HEALTH OF FARMERS.
WE'LL CHECK IN WITH CLINTON IN A MOMENT.
CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY RELEASES REPORT ON MID-AMERICA BUSINESS CONDITIONS:
CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY IN OMAHA, NEBRASKA RELEASING A NEW REPORT ON BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN MID-AMERICA.  IT SHOWS IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH. BUT IT STILL DESCRIBES THE ECONOMY AS "ANE-MICK".
IT SAYS THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IS STABILIZING, BUT A STRONG U-S DOLLAR REMAINS A RESTRAINT ON REGIONAL GROWTH. 
U.S. DOLLAR STRENGTH A BURDEN ON EXPORTS:
DOCTOR ERNIE GOSS SAYS COMPARED TO THE KEY TRADING PARTNER OF CANADA, THE U-S DOLLAR HAS STRENGTHENED 30-PERCENT SINCE JULY 2014. THAT GAIN MAKES U-S GOODS, LIKE AG PRODUCTS, MUCH LESS COMPETITIVE THAN CANADIAN AG.
COMMODITY CLASSICS:
THOUSANDS OF THE NATION'S FARMERS HAVE DESCENDED ON NEW ORLEANS FOR THIS YEAR'S COMMODITY CLASSIC. THE ANNUAL GATHERING FOCUSING ON BOTH POLICY AND PRODUCTS.
BUT TEMPERING THIS YEAR'S GATHERING…THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATIONS FARM ECONOMY. OUR OWN CLINTON GRIFFITHS IS ON THE FLOOR OF THE TRADESHOW WITH MORE.
FARMER’S EXPECTING A TOUGH YEAR AHEAD:
BETSY SHOW IS ALWAYS A PRETTY GOOD TIME. PEOPLE COME AND ENJOY THEMSELVES. BUT THIS YEAR, BRINGS WITH IT THE WEIGHT OF THE FARM ECONOMY. EVERYONE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT 2016 WILL MEAN FOR FINANCES. OUR DELINQUENCIES ARE AT AN ALL TIME LOW. IT'S SO FAR SO GOOD SAY LENDERS. AMERICAN FARMERS TIGHTENING THEIR BELTS FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE A LONG HAUL. OUR BEST ADVICE FOR OUR CUSTOMERS IS TO CONTINUE TO THINK LONGER TERM BUT BE CONSCIOUS OF TODAY.
UNDERLYING ISSUE IS BEING ABLE TO SAVE MONEY AND CUT COSTS:
AND AS THEY LOOK AT THEIR EXPENSES AND THERE'S A WAY TO SAVE A FEW DOLLARS OBVIOUSLY THE INCOME IS NOT GOING TO BE THERE LIKE IT HAS BEEN. THE QUESTION ON EVERYONE'S MIND…WHEN CAN PRICES BEGIN TO WAVE ANOTHER WAY. I THINK THE WAY WE LOOK AT IT, THE BEHAVIOR IN THE FARMING COMMUNITY IS VERY NATURAL AND RESPONSIVE TO WHERE WE ARE. IN THE NEAR TERM THE ISSUE IS STILL SAVING MONEY AND REDUCING SPEND. TOWARDS THE BALANCE OF THIS YEAR, WE'RE GOING TO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE PAIN IN TERMS OF CASH FLOW AND ULTIMATELY CASH FLOW IS GOING TO HELP RECLAIM PLANTING DISCIPLINES. HE SAYS CYCLES ARE JUST THAT…AND AT SOME POINT SOON EXPECTS PRICES TO STABILIZE. RABO—NEAR BREAK EVEN LEVELS.
NEW MARKETS HOLD POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INCOME:
WE VIEW PRICES STABILIZING LATER IN THIS YEAR AND THE SIMPLE WAY TO THINK ABOUT IT IS TO STABILIZE  AROUND LONG TERM BREAKEVEN LEVELS. BUT PRICE PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO PUSH GREATER CONSOLIDATION AS FARMERS WORK TOWARD INCREASING ECONOMIES OF SCALE. ..SO, WHAT COULD DRIVE MARKETS IN THE NEAR TERM BESIDES WEATHER EVENTS…NEW MARKETS. THAT'S WHAT FARMERS KEEP TELLING ME EVERY DAY. FIND MORE MARKETS FOR THIS GRAIN. PLACES WEIRD PLACES LIKE SOUTH ASIA MYANMAR INDIA BANGLADESH PLACES THROUGHOUT ALL OF LATIN AMERICA COLUMBIA IS A MAJOR SUCCESS FOR US RIGHT NOW.
ETHANOL DEMAND:
THE U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL THERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES FOR INCREASING THOSE SALES AND OVERALL DEMAND..INCLUDING A NEW PROGRAM TO BEGIN MARKETING ETHANOL AS AN EXPORT. THAT'S JUST GETTING STARTED TO GET GOING ITS LOOKING PROMISING. THERE IS DEMAND OUT THERE. FARMERS NEED TO HAVE NEW DRIVERS OF DEMAND AND EXPORTS OF ETHANOL MAY BE ONE OF THOSE. HOW MUCH IT CAN MOVE PRICES REMAINS TO BE SEEN…IN THE MEAN TIME LENDERS SAY FARMERS MUST BE VIGILANT. FROM A PURELY ECONOMIC STANDPOINT, A RECESSION YOU CAN CALCULATE. THERE IS A SENSE OF CONCERN. SO I GUESS I LOOK AT IT FROM A PSYCHOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. PEOPLE ARE TIGHTENING UP. THAT'S PROBABLY THE PRUDENT THING TO DO RIGHT NOW. REPORTING FROM COMMODITY CLASSIC IN NEW ORLEANS. I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS.
MONSANTO DOWNGRADES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK:
SHARES IN MONSANTO TUMBLED AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER THE CHEM AND SEEDS COMPANY DOWNGRADED ITS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. THIS WAS THE SECOND REVISION IN AS MANY MONTHS. MONSANTO BLAMES A COMBINATION OF FACTORS, INCLUDING "COMPRESSED" FARMER MARGINS AND COMPETITION IN HERBICIDES. 
IN JANUARY, MONSANTO CUT ITS EARNINGS FORECAST BY 30-CENTS A SHARE. SINCE THEN, IT TOOK-OFF ANOTHER 70-CENTS A SHARE.
50 YEARS AFTER THE STORM, NORTH DAKOTA RECALLS CATTLE LOSSES
TODAY MARKS 50 YEARS SINCE AN EPIC STORM IN-UNDATED THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT ACTUALLY BEGAN ON MARCH 2ND, 1966. WITH 70 MILE AN HOUR WINDS AND BLINDING SNOW.
BY THE TIME IT WAS OVER, TENS OF THOUSANDS OF CATTLE IN NORTH DAKOTA HAD DIED. SOME ESTIMATES PUT THE LOSS AS HIGH AS 75-THOUSAND HEAD. CLIFF NAYLOR REPORTS ON A PRODUCER WHO WEATHERED THE STATE'S WORST WINTER STORM AND IS STILL IN THE BUSINESS TODAY.
 HE'S WEATHERED MANY STORMS, INCLUDING THE BLIZZARD OF '66, AND HAS NO PLANS TO RETIRE FROM THE BUSINESS ANYTIME SOON. IN KIDDER COUNTY, CLIFF NAYLOR, REPORTING FOR AGDAY.
CROP COMMENTS:
NOW LETS CHECK IN WITH MIKE HOFFMAN FOR THIS MORNING'S CROP COMMENTS. MIKE
GOOD MORNING, BETSY.
LET'S START OFF IN WEST VIRGINIA.  WAYNE CLAGG SAYS THE STATE ISN'T WELL KNOWN FOR AGRICULTURE BUT IT'S QUITE A BIG INDUSTRY CONSIDERING THE HILLY TERRAIN.
DROUGHT MONITOR:
AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE DROUGHT MONITOR STILL SOME DRY AREAS IN PARTS TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT OBVIOUSLY THE EXTREME EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT FOR MANY PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BUT THERE IS A BIG STORM SYSTEM THAT’S COMING INTO THE WEST COAST THAT WE’RE GOING TO SHOW YOU WITH OUR FORECAST IN THE MEAN TIME HERE ARE SOME HOMETOWN TEMPS.
PROFARMER PITCH:
AS FARMERS IN THE DEEP SOUTH DUST OFF THEIR PLANTERS-PRO FARMER TALKS RISK MANAGEMENT FOR FARMERS THIS SPRING. TENNESSEE FARMERS MAY BE ABLE TO DIVERSIFY THEIR FARMS MORE-BY NOW GROWING A CROP NOT COMMONLY FOUND IN THE STATE.
THE CROP INSURANCE DEADLINE IS NEAR FOR MIDWESTERN FARMERS. THAT'S WHY IT'S ONLY FITTING OUR PARTNERS AT PRO FARMER DISCUSS RISK MANAGEMENT AND REVENUE PROTECTION IN THIS MORNING'S PROFIT BRIEFING.
PROFARMER:
WELL, WE MADE IT THROUGH FEBRUARY AND THAT IS KIND OF IMPORTANT TIME FOR RISK MANAGEMENT, BECAUSE WE DETERMINE WHAT THE SPRING REVENUE  PROTECTION PRICE IS GOING TO BE ON CORN, SOYBEANS, SPRING WHEAT. LET'S JUST FOCUS ON CORN AND SOYBEANS HERE, BRIAN. NUMBER ONE, WHAT ARE THE PRICES THAT WE ARE GOING TO BE WORKING WITH?> IT'S GOING TO BE AROUND 3.86 IN CORN AND 8.85 IN SOYBEANS, STILL HAVEN'T FINALIZED THOSE YET BUT THAT IS WHERE THE AVERAGES WERE.> THOSE NUMBERS DON'T LINE UP WITH WHERE WE WERE A YEAR AGO.> NO. 
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY WITH METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN. MIKE, DO WE KNOW WHAT THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF ALONG THE WEST COAST? WELL, THE FRONT IS GOING TO COME IN AND STALL AND THEN A BIG STORM COMES IN IT IS ONE OF THOSE CASES WHERE YOU COULD GET SOME MUD SLIDES AND THAT TYPE OF THING, SO IT IS GOOD FOR THE LONG TERM MAYBE NOT SO MUCH FOR THE SHORT TERM. AND I WILL SHOW THAT STORM COMING UP, BUT LET'S TALK ABOUT THE TWO EASTERN ONES FIRST.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
 THAT IS A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY; NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR BURNS, OREGON, PARTLY SUNNY, PLEASANTLY COOL TODAY, HIGH OF 54; ALBANY, TEXAS, MOSTLY SUNNY AND QUITE NICE, HIGH  OF 78 AND FINALLY, SYRACUSE, NEW YORK, VARIABLY CLOUDY, MAYBE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES,  HIGH AROUND 32 DEGREES.
TEASE:
A HANDFUL OF BIG BOX COMPANIES PLEDGE TO BE 'CAGE-FREE.'  THAT STORY WHEN WE COME BACK. AND RESEARCHERS GIVE TENNESSEE FARMERS THE GREEN LIGHT TO PLANT A CROP NOT COMMONLY GROWN IN TENNESSEE.
GROCERY STORE CHAINS PLAN TO BE ‘CAGE-FREE’ BY 2025
A HANDFUL OF MAJOR GROCERY CHAINS ANNOUNCED THIS WEEK THEY'RE GOING 'CAGE-FREE.'  KROGER SAYS IT WILL SELL ONLY CAGE-FREE EGGS BY 2025. 15 PERCENT OF THE EGGS IT SOLD IN 2015 WERE CAGE-FREE. 
ALBERTSON COMPANIES ALSO DECLARING IT HAS A GOAL OF SOURCING ONLY CAGE-FREE EGGS BY 2025, BASED ON AVAILABLE SUPPLY. 
ALSO, THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY IS JOINING THE CAGE FREE MOVEMENT. ITS TRANSITIONING TO 100 PERCENT CAGE-FREE BY 2025.
DAIRY CONSOLIDATION:
A RABO BANK REPORT SAYS THE SIZE OF DAIRY FARMERS ARE CHANGING AND CONSOLIDATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THE RISE OF LARGE FARMERS, THAT'S DAIRIES WITH HERDS OF OVER AH-THOUSAND HEAD) ARE EXPANDING AND PICKING UP SPEED OVER THE LAST DECADE.
THE CHANGE HAS BOOSTED CONSOLIDATION OF U.S. MILK PRODUCTION, PUTTING INCREASING INFLUENCE IN THE HANDS OF LARGE FARMS.  SOME ANALYSTS SAY LARGE PRODUCERS ARE SEEING EXPANSION DESPITE THE LOWER PRICES AND GLUT OF MILK.
DOHERTY SAYS WE MAY SEE SOME BIG PRODUCERS ADDING ON, GOING FROM AH-THOUSAND TO 15 HUNDRED HEAD.
TEASE:
WHEN AGDAY CONTINUES -TENNESSEE GROWERS MAY HAVE A NEW CROP ON THEIR HANDS.
I'M CHARLES DENNY. COULD IT BE A POTENTIAL NEW CROP FOR TENNESSEE FARMERS? WE'RE TALKING ABOUT SESAME. IT'S USED FOR MORE THAN JUST HAMBURGER BUNS. THAT STORY NEXT ON AGDAY. >
IN THE COUNTRY:
TENNESSEE IS A STATE KNOWN FOR ITS ROW CROPS, TOBACCO AND WHEAT. BUT THERE'S A NEW CROP STATE FARMERS MAY CONSIDER.  SESAME IS PRODUCED FOR ITS OIL AND IS COMMONLY USED IN BREAD PRODUCTS.  NOW RESEARCHERS SAY THE SMALL CROP HAS A LOT OF POTENTIAL IN TENNESSEE.
CLOSING:
THE U.S. PRODUCES ABOUT 750-THOUSAND ACRES OF SESAME EVERY YEAR. MOST OF THAT COMES FROM STATES LIKE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.
FOR CLINTON GRIFFITHS AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M BETSY JIBBEN. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M BETSY JIBBEN. MONDAY ON AGDAY -MACHINERY PETE SHARES HIS INSIGHT TO THE BEST DEALS ON USED FARM EQUIPMENT. AND RICE GROWERS GEAR-UP FOR INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA. CATCH US WEEKDAYS RIGHT HERE ON AGDAY.

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