AgDay Daily Recap -May 16, 2016

May 16, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
MAY 16, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -NEW ESTIMATES HOW MUCH FARMERS COULD MAKE BY SWITCHING CROPS THIS SPRING...PLUS, A FARM BILL FLAP....OVER PAYMENTS. I'M MICHELLE ROOK. THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE FARM BILL HAS HAD SOME HICCUPS FOR FARMERS. I'LL HAVE THE DETAILS TODAY ON AGDAY. IN AGRIBUSINESS...THE MARKET MOVES, NOW WHAT? I'VE BEEN SAYING ALL WINTER THAT WE WOULD HAVE AT LEAST ONE OPPORTUNITY TO SELL GRAIN AND THIS IS IT. MACHINERY PETE TAKES A LOOK AT GRAIN CART PRICES. AND THIS HISTORIC ROCK IN AUSTRALIA GETS A NEW LOOK THANKS TO SPRING RAINS.
NEW DATA SHOWS MONEY IS IN THE SOYBEANS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. IF YOU'VE BEEN PONDERING WHETHER TO MOVE SOME CORN ACRES TO SOYBEANS THIS SPRING, SOME NEW DATA FROM A LEADING AG ECONOMIST MAY CONVINCE YOU TO MAKE THE SWITCH. ONE-HUNDRED-16 DOLLARS AN ACRE -THAT'S HOW MUCH MORE SOYBEAN FARMERS STAND TO EARN OVER CORN THIS YEAR. THAT'S ACCORDING TO PURDUE UNIVERSITY AG ECONOMIST CHRIS HURT.  SINCE MARCH FIRST, SOYBEAN PRICES HAVE RISEN 25-PERCENT OR ABOUT TWODOLLARS-HURT SAYS THE FINANCIAL INCENTIVE TO SHIFT INTENDED ACRES TO BEANS HAS REACHED A NEW HIGH. HE SAYS "DELAYED PLANTING THIS SPRING MAY ACTUALLY TURN OUT TO BE A FINANCIAL BLESSING." PRO FARMER EDITOR BRIAN GRETE SAYS THESE RECENT PRICES SHIFTS ARE LIKELY PULLING MORE SOYBEAN ACRES FORWARD.
ARC PAYMENT VARIES DEPENDING ON COUNTY:
WHAT WOULD YOU THINK IF A NEIGHBORING FARMER RECEIVED A BIGGER FARM PAYMENT THAN YOU WHEN BOTH ELECTED THE AGRICULTURAL RISK COVERAGE PROGRAM? IOWA SENATORS CHUCK GRASSLEY AND JONI ERNST ARE ASKING USDA FOR INFORMATION ON THE METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINEE COUNTY YIELDS FOR THE ARC PROGRAM. THEY CITE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN PAYMENTS BETWEEN ADJACENT COUNTIES. IN 2014 FARMERS IN CALHOUN COUNTY RECEIVED A PAYMENT OF JUST OVER 23 DOLLARS A SHARE., WHILE THE COUNTY DIRECTLY NORTH, POCAHONTAS COUNTY, RECEIVED NEARLY 92-DOLLARS. AGDAY'S MICHELLE ROOK REPORTS ON OTHER FARM STATE LAWMAKERS CALLING ON USDA TO LOOK AT THE DISPARITY.
DISPARITY CAN BE FIXED:
HE SAYS IT'S SOMETHING USDA CAN'T FIX BECAUSE ITS BASED ON WEATHER PATTERNS AND YIELD. SCUSE, "THE ONLY WAY TO SOLVE THAT PROBLEM IS TO DO A PER FARM PROGRAM." BASED ON EACH INDIVIDUALS FARMERS YIELDS AND INCOMES."  IN ADDITION TO THE ARC PROGRAM, THERE ARE OTHER ISSUES WITH THE FARM BILL.
STAX IS NOT WORKING FOR COTTON PRODUCERS:
  "THINGS ARE REALLY HARD IN COTTON COUNTRY. THE FARM BILL STAX PROGRAM HAS NOT BEEN TAKEN UP BY THE PRODUCERS ITS NOT WORKING."  "WE'VE GOT AN ISSUE WITH GENERIC BASE ACRES IN THE SOUTH THAT IS SKEWING THE MARKET FOR PEANUTS AND SOME OTHER CROPS A LITTLE BIT."
MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM PROVIDES MARGINAL BENEFITS:
AND MANY DAIRYMEN ARE UPSET WITH THE MARGIN PROTECTION PROGRAM SINCE MILK PRICES HAVE FALLEN BELOW BREAKEVENS BUT SOME HAVEN'T RECEIVED A PAYMENT.  "A LOT OF FARMERS ARE LOOKING AT IT AND SAY WE'RE NOT GOING TO PAY THE MONEY BECAUSE WE'RE NOT GOING TO GET ANYTHING OUT OF IT. SEC SO CLEARLY THIS ISN'T WORKING." SO PETERSON IS WORKING ON A REFINEMENT OF THE PROGRAM. PETERSON, "LOOKING AT AN $8 SWEET SPOT AND MAYBE RAISING THE GUARANTEE AT THE BOTTOM THAT YOU DON'T HAVE TO PAY FOR TO $5, INSTEAD OF $4." HE SAYS THE OTHER OPTION IS TO TURN THE PROGRAM OVER TO RMA. THE KEY WITH ALL THIS IS TO FINE TUNE WITHOUT REOPENING THE FARM BILL. "TO MAKE SURE WE DON'T OPEN THE DOOR AND LET THOSE FOLKS WHO WANT TO COME IN AND BASICALLY KILL EITHER YOU KNOW COMMODITY PROGRAMS OR MESS WITH CROP INSURANCE GET THEIR TOE HOLD IN THE DOOR.
WEED CONTROL:
HOW MUCH TIME AND MONEY DO YOU INVEST IN CONTROLLING WEEDS IN YOUR FIELDS EACH YEAR? THEN, IMAGINE IF THOSE WEEDS WERE LEFT UN-CHECKED IN THE NATION'S CORN AND SOYBEAN FIELDS. WORKING WITH THE WEED SCIENCE SOCIETY OF AMERICA, RESEARCHERS AT KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY JUST RELEASED THE RESULTS OF A STUDY EXAMINING THAT VERY SCENARIO. ACCORDING TO THEIR DATA, YIELDS IN U-S AND CANADA WOULD BE CUT IN HALF. THOSE YIELD REDUCTIONS WOULD RESULT IN 43-BILLION DOLLARS IN ANNUAL ECONOMIC LOSSES IN THOSE TWO CROPS ALONE. SCIENTISTS FROM BOTH COUNTRIES PROVIDED YIELD DATA FROM CORN AND SOYBEAN TRIALS. "THEY LOOKED AT UNTREATED CHECKS. HOW MUCH YIELD DID THEY GET FROM PLOT WHERE THEY DIDN'T TREAT FOR WEEDS.
 LESSER PRAIRIE CHICKEN:
ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL FRONT, THE ADMINISTRATION APPEARS TO BE WALKING AWAY FROM IT'S PUSH LIST THE LESSER PRAIRIE CHICKEN AS A THREATENED SPECIES UNDER THE ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT.  A U.S. DISTRICT COURT FOR THE WESTERN DISTRICT OF TEXAS RULING THAT THE U.S. FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE DIDN'T FOLLOW ITS OWN RULES WHEN IT MADE THE DESIGNATION. ADDING THAT IT DIDN'T TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE CONSERVATION EFFORTS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THOSE STATES. THE D-O-J SAYS IT'S DROPPING ITS APPEAL OF THE RULING.
CROP COMMENTS:
LETS CHECK ON HOW CROPS ARE DOING WITH OUR OWN MIKE HOFFMAN.  HELLO CLINTON. LETS BEGIN IN DWIGHT NEBRASKA WITH A COUPLE OF PHOTO'S SENT IN BY NETWORK AG SERVICES ON TWITTER. AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THESE ARIAL PICTURES, THE REGION HAS HAD LOTS OF RAIN. AS OF LAST WEEK'S CROP PROGRESS REPORT THERE WERE LESS THAN FOUR DAYS SUITABLE FOR FIELD WORK. A NEW REPORT COMES OUT LATER TODAY. AND OUR OWN BETSY JIBBEN SPENT LAST WEEK IN CALIFORNIA AT SUN WORLD FRUIT WITH OUR NEW FRIENDS AT THE PACKER.
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL SIT DOWN WITH MARK GOLD TO DISCUSS LAST WEEK'S LATEST MARKET MOVES AND WHETHER HE THINKS RECENT CHANGES COULD IMPACT THOSE FINIAL PLANTING DECISIONS. AND LATER, MACHINERY PETE. STAY TUNED, FOLKS. COMING UP WE WILL TALK USED GRAIN CARTS. AND A LANDMARK IN A REMOTE LOCATION OF AUSTRALIA CHANGES ITS APPEARANCE NEARLY OVERNIGHT -BECAUSE OF RAIN. WE'LL EXPLAIN....WHEN WE HEAD IN THE COUNTRY.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS COMMODITIES ENDED THE WEEK MIXED--LETS SEE WHERE THINGS WRAPPED UP FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. TODAY WE SAW EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT SITUATION, AS WE HAVE MOST OF THE WEEK. WE SEE BEANS SETTLING BACK DOWN AGAIN. DEMAND HASN'T BEEN THERE. BUT A LOT OF GUYS ARE LOOKING AT THE INCREASE IN PLANTING IN THE SOYBEANS WITH ALL THE MOISTURE WE'VE HAD IN THE MIDWEST REGION. AND IT'S GOING TO BE MOVING OVER TO THE EAST COAST. WE TAKE A LOOK AT CORN, WE SAW CORN ON THE POSITIVE CLOSE TODAY. IT WAS UP ABOUT A POINT, POINT AND A HALF. THIS IS GARY KOZLOWSKI, FARR FINANCIAL COMING TO YOU FROM THE CME.
AGRIBUSINESS DESK:
OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK WE HAVE MARK GOLD OF TOP THIRD AG MARKETING. MARK LETS TALK ABOUT THIS LAST WEEK OR SO I MEAN WE'VE SEEN SOME INCREDIBLE NUMBERS OUT FROM USDA RALLIES AND A LITTLE BIT OF PULL BACK. WHAT DO YOU SEE? WHAT WERE THE BIG DRIVERS THERE. WELL CERTAINLY THE BIG DRIVER IN THE BEAN MARKET WAS THE CARRYOUT FOR THIS YEAR. LOOKING AT 305 M BU MAJOR SHOCK A 100 MILLION MORE OR LESS THAN WHAT THEY WERE LOOKING FOR. I DON'T BELIEVE SOME OF THE GOVERNMENT NUMBERS. OKAY AND IT'S BASED ON THE ACREAGE FROM THE MARCH 30TH REPORT MARCH 31 REPORT.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO THIS MONDAY MORNING EDITION OF AGDAY METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN HERE. MIKE IF WE LOOK AT THE RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO MIKE IT LOOKS LIKE SOME PLACES GOT PRETTY GOOD RAINS AND I KNOW THEY DID IN KANSAS CITY. YEAH EVEN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT'S LONG TERM BUT YOU CAN SEE THE RAIN ITS BEEN FALLING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS IS SHOWING THE ESTIMATED RAIN SINCE A WEEK AGO SATURDAY TO LAST FRIDAY AND YOU CAN SEE FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BUT ESPECIALLY ON UP INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OHIO VALLEY ALSO BACK INTO KANSAS BACK INTO OMAHA EASTERN NEBRASKA LOTS OF THOSE AREAS ENDED UP WITH 3,4,5 INCHES OF RAIN.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LETS TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR ELY NEVADA COOL WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREES. BASSETT NEBRASKA CLOUDY AND COOLER WITH RAIN AT TIMES HIGH OF ONLY 52 AND AIKEN SOUTH CAROLINA PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT HIGH AROUND 65 DEGREES.
TEASE:
YOU'RE PROBABLY FOCUSED ON PLANTING RIGHT NOW. BUT MACHINERY PETE IS THINKING HARVEST. HE HAS THE DEALS ON GRAIN CARTS STRAIGHT AHEAD. PLUS, WHY ARE TOURISTS SO EXCITED ABOUT RAIN ON THIS AUSTRALIAN LANDMARK? DETAILS WHEN WE HEAD "DOWN UNDER".
MACHINERY PETE:
IN MACHINERY NEWS, KUBOTA MAKING WAVES IN MERGER NEWS.  IT ANNOUNCED PLANS TO BUY GREAT PLAINS MANUFACTURING OUT OF SALINA KANSAS. THE COMPANY SAYS THE TWO HAVE WORKED TOGETHER FOR YEARS AND MAKE A GREAT FIT. AS FAR AS MANUFACTURING GOES, LEADERS SAY NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. IT MAY BE PLANTING SEASON BUT MACHINERY PETE IS ALREADY LOOKING AHEAD TO HARVEST. WITH MORE ON RECENT GRAIN CART PRICES--HERE'S GREG. OK, FOLKS, TODAY LET'S TALK USED GRAIN CARTS AND I THINK THE REST OF 2016 IS GOING TO BE A GREAT TIME TO BE A BUYER. NOW, I SAY THAT FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS: ON THE ONE HAND, THE SUPPLY OF THEM IS UP, THE NUMBER OF MACHINERY AUCTIONS HAS BEEN GOING UP AND ON THE DEALER SIDE WE HAVE A HEALTHY SUPPLY ON THE USED LOTS.
TEASE:
STILL TO COME, IT MAY SEEM DIFFICULT TO GET EXCITED ABOUT A LITTLE RAIN ON A ROCK FORMATION. BUT WHEN THE AREA ONLY GETS A FEW INCHES A YEAR, IT CAN MAKE SOME STUNNING SCENERY. DETAILS NEXT.
IN THE COUNTRY:
IT DOESN'T RAIN OFTEN IN AUSTRALIA'S NORTHERN TERRITORY. BUT WHEN IT DOES, IT CREATES SOME RATHER SPECIFIC SCENES IN AUSTRALIA'S FAMED SANDSTONE ROCK FORMATION KNOWN ULURU,THE GIANT DESERT LANDMARK HAS BEEN TRANSFORMED BY RAINWATER CASCADING INTO DEEP POOLS. USUALLY THIS GIANT SANDSTONE IS BONE DRY. BUT NEARLY THREE INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN THE AREA RECENTLY. THAT'S ALMOST A YEARS' WORTH OF PRECIPITATION.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR MIKE HOFFMAN, AND ALL OF US AT AGDAY, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT WEEK.

PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. TUESDAY ON AGDAY - WE'LL HAVE THE LATEST NEWS FROM THE DAIRY SECTOR. BOB UTTERBACK EXPLAINS WHERE WE STAND IN THE MARKETS RIGHT NOW.AND HOW WILL WEATHER SHAPE-UP FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. MIKE HOFFMAN HAS THE ANSWERS. WATCH ME WEEKDAYS HERE ON AGDAY.

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