AgDay Daily Recap -May 4, 2016

May 4, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
MAY 4, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -A NEW GUAGE OF THE FARM ECONOMY...AND IT SHOWS POSITIVE MOVEMENT IN APRIL. ON THE I-80 PLANTING TOUR...WHAT DOES PLANTING PROGRESS IN INDIANA HAVE TO DO WITH LAKE MICHIGAN? I'M BETSY JIBBEN WE'LL TELL YOU COMING UP. IN AGRIBUSINESS...LOOKING FRONT TO BACK ON CORN CONTRACTS. IT HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR OLD CROP CORN THAT'S IN STORAGE OKAY WHETHER IT'S COMMERCIAL STORAGE ON THE FARM MARKET NOT PAYING FOR STORAGE ANYMORE. WE'LL CHECK ON WATERMELON HARVEST IN FLORIDA. AND SEE HOW THESE NORTH DAKOTA RANCHERS ARE FENCING IN HISTORY WITH A LITTLE BARBED WIRE.
OPTIMISM DUE TO RALLY:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. WITH A SLIGHT RALLY IN GRAIN PRICES LAST MONTH, PRODUCERS ATTITUDES ABOUT THE ECONOMY MAY BE IMPROVING.  THAT'S THE ANALYSIS OF A NEW FARM ECONOMY SURVEY CONDUCTED BY PURDUE UNIVERSITY AND THE C-M-E GROUP. THE UNIVERSITY AND THE MARKET-TRADING GROUP JOINTLY DEVELOPED THE NEW 'AG ECONOMY BAROMETER". IT INTENDS TO BE A MONTHLY NATIONWIDE MEASURE OF THE HEALTH OF THE U-S AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY. THE BAROMETER WILL MEASURE PRODUCERS' EXPECTATIONS OF PROFITABILITY; FARMLAND PRICES; CAPITAL EXPENDITURES; AND PRICES.  THE BASE LEVEL IS 100. THIS MONTH IT REACHED 106 WHICH INDICATES AN IMPROVEMENT IN PRODUCERS SENTIMENTS. THE ANALYSTS SAY STRENGTHENING PRICES AND BETTER WEATHER PUT FARMERS IN A BETTER MOOD. WHILE THE FARM ECONOMY MAY SHOW SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT, SOME PRODUCERS IN THE DAIRY SECTOR ARE NOT AS OPTIMISTIC.
DAIRY FARM SURVEY:
OUR PARTNERS AT FARM JOURNAL'S MILK MAGAZINE CONDUCTED A SURVEY OF LARGE-DAIRY OPERATORS. NEARLY 40-PERCENT SAID THEY CAN SURVIVE AT THE CURRENT MILK PRICES, BUT ONLY FOR ANOTHER YEAR. 43-PERCENT SAY THEY'RE CARRYING MORE DEBT THAN THEY DID IN 2009 WHEN MILK PRICES WERE LOW AND FEED PRICES WERE HIGH. BUT FOR ONE NEW MEXICO DAIRY, PROFITS LOOKING MORE PROMISING AT THE END OF 2016. "I WOULD SAY 15 WAS SURVIVAL, I'M GOING TO SAY 16, OPTIMISTIC. I WAS DOING MY CASH FLOWS THE OTHER DAY AND TOWARDS THE END OF HTE YEAR, IT LOOKS LIEK WER'E GOING TO BE ABLE TO START PAYING BILLS AGAIN NICE. ADN I'M AN OPTIMIST, I FEEL LIKE WITH THE SPRING, WE'RE KIND OF GOING BACKYWARDS, BUT I FEEL LIKE THIS SPRING WE'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO MAKE THAT UP."
TOSS TO FRIDAY’S SHOW:
FRIDAY ON AGDAY, WE'LL INTRODUCE YOU TO THIS NEW MEXICO DAIRY FAMILY  WHO'S THE COVER STORY FOR FARM JOURNAL'S ALL-NEW MILK MAGAZINE.  SCHAAP {SKOP} RELY'S ON INNOVATION AND HIS BUSINESS ACUMEN TO SURVIVE  THE VALLEYS OF MILK IN TODAY'S PRICES.
E-P-A FINDS GLYPHOSATE NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE CANCER:
IT APPEARS THE E-P-A MAY HAVE JUMPED THE GUN IN RELEASING ITS DECISION ON WHETHER GLYPHOSATE CAUSES CANCER. ON MONDAY, WE RECEIVED A NEWS RELEASE FROM MONSANTO STATING THAT EPA HAD RULED THE HERBICIDE WAS NOT A LIKELY CAUSE OF CANCER. THAT NEWS RELEASE WAS BASED IN PART ON DOCUMENTS POSTED ON THE E-PA WEBSITE THAT CONCLUDED GLYPHOSATE IS "NOT LIKELY TO BE CARCINOGENIC TO HUMANS". BUT LATER THAT DAY, THOSE DOCUMENTS WERE REMOVED FROM THE AGENCY'S DOCKET. WHILE THE DOCUMENTS WERE POSTED AS A "FINAL REPORT", EPA IS NOW SAYING THAT RELEASE WAS PREMATURE AND THAT -QUOTING NOW -"EPA HAS NOT COMPLETED OUR CANCER REVIEW".
WINTER WHEAT TOUR:
SCOUTS WILL BE HEADING OUT THIS MORNING FOR THE SECOND DAY OF THE WHEAT QUALITY COUNCIL'S WINTER WHEAT TOUR.  TEAMS OF FIELD SCOUTS ARE TRAVELING THROUGH-OUT KANSAS AND PARTS OF OKLAHOMA TO GAUGE THIS YEARS CROP. ON MONDAY, USDA'S CROP PROGRESS REPORT SHOWING ABOUT HALF OF THE KANSAS CROP IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. ABOUT 38-PERCENT IS FAIR.  ABOUT HALF OF THE CROP IS IN HEADING STAGE, IS WELL AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE IN OKLAHOMA, 65-PERCENT IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT. THREE QUARTERS OF THE CROP IS HEADED. 49 PERCENT IN TEXAS IS GOOD TO EXCELLEN T.
I-80 PLANTING TOUR:
AND THREE QUARTERS IS HEADED, THE I-80 PLANTING TOUR -SPONSORED BY THE ENLIST WEED CONTROL SYSTEM FROM DOW AGROSCIENCES -COMBINING THE PROVEN CONTROL OF A NEW 2-4-D AND GLYPHOSATE. TAKE CONTROL OF TOUGH WEEDS LIKE NEVER BEFORE. USDA SAYS INDIANA IS MOVING ALONG IN PLANTING.  THE STATE HAS 30 PERCENT OF ITS CORN ACRES IN THE GROUND.  THAT'S 8 POINTS ABOVE THE 5-YEAR AVERAGE. 6 PERCENT OF SOYBEAN ACERS HAVE BEEN PLANTED. BUT IN NORTHERN INDIANA PLANTING PROGRESS SEEMS TO BE A MIXED BAG. BETSY JIBBEN EXPLAINS.
LAKE MICHIGAN CONTROLS CLIMATE AND PLANTING PROGRESS FOR FARMERS:
"PLANTING PROGRESS VARIES HERE IN NORTHERN INDIANA. FARMERS SAY THAT HAS TO DO WITH THE FARM'S LOCATION TO LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME FARMERS ARE WELL INTO PLANTING WHILE OTHERS HAVE YET TO PUT A SEED IN THE GROUND," PLANTERS ARE ROLLING DURING THIS COOL, HAZY MORNING IN NORTHERN INDIANA. IT'S A START TO A SPRING DAY HERE WHERE CLIMATE IS LARGELY CONTROLLED BY ONE THING.. PROXIMIDITY TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THANKS BETSY. BOTH OF THESE FARMERS HAVE SEED CORN CONTRACTS SO ROTATIONS HAVEN'T CHANGED THIS YEAR. ADDING THAT THE DIVERSIFICATION IS HELPING BALANCE INCOME.
CROP COMMENTS:
CROP COMMENTS IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY RESICORE HERBICIDE FROM DOW AGROSCIENCES. WE ARE TAKING A LOOK AT SOME MARSHY FIELDS THIS MORNING.. MIKE HOFFMAN  HAS A LOOK IN CROP COMMENTS. MIKE.  GOOD MORNING, CLINTON.  LET'S START OFF IN SOME WET FIELDS IN NORTH EAST NEBRASKA.
TEASE:
WE'LL TAKE A PEEK AT MARKETS AFTER THE BREAK INCLUDING A LOOK AT THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE FRONT MONTH AND BACK MONTH CONTRACTS. AND IF YOU'VE SPENT ANY AMOUNT OF TIME RUNNING BARBED WIRE ALONG YOUR PROPERTY LINE, YOU MAY NOT BE THE BIGGEST FAN OF THE FENCE LINE. BUT FOR THIS RANCHING COUPLE, BARBED WIRE IS SOMETHING TO BE CHERISHED. DETAILS AS WE HEAD IN THE COUNTRY.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS...LETS SEE HOW MARKETS ENDED TUESDAY'S TRADING SESSION. WE HEAD TO THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO. TUESDAY IN THE GRAIN MARKET HAS ALL THE GRAINS LOWER. LOOKS LIKE SOUTH AMERICA HAS BASICALLY BEEN SITTING ON THE MARKET. LAST NIGHT THEY SOLD A MILLION TONS OF BEANS THAT REALLY PUSH THIS SOYBEAN MARKET LOWER. WE'RE DOWN ALMOST 20 CENTS TODAY. SAME THING WITH CORN. CORN HAD A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT OF AN ISSUE THEY FOUND TWENTY THREE PERCENT MORE ACREAGE THAT HAS SURPRISED EVERYONE AND THAT SENT CORN DOWN ABOUT SEVENTEEN OR EIGHTEEN CENTS.
THAT'S ALL FROM THE CME GROUP VIRGINIA MCGATHEY.

AGRIBUSINESS:
JOE VACLAVIK OUR GUEST HERE HE'S WITH STANDARD GRAIN AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK JOE LET'S TALK ABOUT THE CORN MARKET OBVIOUSLY APRIL PRETTY DECENT TO CORN IT WASN'T AS BIG RALLY SOME OF OUR OTHER COMMODITIES BUT NOT BAD AND WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU'RE WATCHING FOR CORN AS WE HAD INTO MAY THE ONE THING I WANTED TO TOUCH DOWN WAS CORN SPREADS WHICH STRENGTHENED QUITE A BIT WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT THE NEARBY CONTRACTS HAVE GAINED PRETTY SHARPLY ON THE DEFERRED CONTRACTS RECENTLY IT HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR OLD CROP CORN THAT'S IN STORAGE OKAY
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK MIKE WE'RE WATCHING THIS COLD FRONT MOVED IN TO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. WOULD YOU SAY IT COULD BE COLD. COLD FOR A QUICK SHOT BEHIND IT IF SOME PLACES GET A CLEAR CALM NIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN PLACES, SO THAT'S SOMETHING WE HAVE TO WATCH. OTHER THAN THAT THE SYSTEM REALLY ISN'T CAUSING TOO MUCH EXCEPT SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN MAYBE ONE OR TWO TENTHS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL, VAUGHN NEW MEXICO LOTS OF SUNSHINE A NICE HIGH TEMPERATURE OF SEVENTY FOUR. INTERNATIONAL FALLS MINNESOTA PARTLY SUNNY RATHER MILD HIGHER FIFTY NINE. AND TUPELO MISSISSIPPI A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS MAY BE A SHOWER BY THIS EVENING. HIGH AROUND SEVENTY FIVE DEGREES.

TEASE:
MEMORIAL WEEKEND IS COMING UP...WE'LL CHECK ON THE WATERMELON CROP AS IT ROLLS IN FROM FLORIDA. AND IN THE TREE-BARREN GREAT PLAINS, BARBED WIRE HELPED TRANSFORM THAT REGION OF THE NATION. A COUPLE IN NORTH DAKOTA THINKS THAT'S WORTH NOTING. IN THE COUNTRY -LATER ON AGDAY.
WATERMELON PROGRESS:
FROM OUR FRIENDS AT THE PACKER, WATERMELON HARVEST IS RAMPING UP IN FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. EASTERN EDITOR, DOUG OHLEMEIER, STOPPING AT IMMOKAKALEE FLORIDA WHERE SMALLER SUPPLIES ARE STARTING TO COME OUT FIELDS ABOUT 10 DAYS LATER THAN USUAL. FARMS SAY MIXED WEATHER COULD PUSH TONNAGE DOWN BY ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT. WE HAD A LITTLE BIT OF A SLOW START, BUT WE STARTED THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL, PUT THE VOLUME, STARTED TO INCREASE THE MIDDLE OF APRIL. MAY FIRST COMING UP AND WE SHOULD BE AT FULL VOLUME AT THAT POINT. THE QUALITY'S BEEN GOOD. BUT LAST WEEK OR SO, THE QUALITY GOTTEN MUCH BETTER. I THINK FROM HERE ON OUT, WITH WEATHER BEING PERFECT, WE SHOULD HAVE A GREAT SEASON AHEAD.
TEASE:
NEXT -EVER BEEN SNAGGED BY BARBED WIRE? MAKES YA WONDER WHY THESE FOLKS COLLECT SOME OF THE RUSTED RELICS.
IN THE COUNTRY:
THERE ARE NO BOUNDARIES WHEN IT COMES TO AMASSING LARGE QUANTITIES OF OBJECTS. BASEBALL CARDS, COINS, AND STAMPS ARE JUST A FEW OF THE MOST COMMON ITEMS PEOPLE ACCUMULATE. A COUPLE OF NORTH DAKOTA RANCHERS REFUSE TO BE FENCED IN BY CONVENTIONAL COLLECTIONS. CLIFF NAYLOR FROM AFFILIATE KFYR HAS OUR STORY ON THE ECLECTIC COLLECTION.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN.  FOR BETSY JIBBEN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. THURSDAY ON AGDAY OUR PARTNERS AT DROVERS HAVE THE LATEST NEWS FROM THE CATTLE SECTOR.  IN AGRIBUSINESS -BROKERS VERSUS RISK MANAGERS VERSUS TRADERS. ORIGINAL FARM REPORTING AND ANALYSIS THAT YOU CAN EXPECT FROM AGDAY.

 

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