AgDay Daily Recap -May 9, 2016

May 9, 2016 02:57 AM
 

TODAY ON AGDAY
MAY 9, 2016


OPENING HEADLINES:
COMING UP TODAY ON AGDAY -BEEF AND PORK EXPORTS ARE ON THE CLIMB IN 2016...ALSO ON THE RISE, CORN IN NORTH DAKOTA. WE'LL LOOK AT HOW THAT'S CHANGING THE NEEDS FOR INPUTS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN AGRIBUSINESS...CHECKING ON THE DAIRY COMPLEX. AND THE BOTTOM LINE IS IT WILL TAKE A LOT MORE THAN 13 DOLLAR MILK TO SCARE COWS OFF OF THE FARM. MACHINERY PETE LOOKS AT 100 HORSEPOWER TRACTORS. AND THESE COWBOYS AREN'T GATHERING THE HERD IN MONTANA....THIS IS A MIDDLE EASTERN WAR ZONE. THAT STORY TODAY ON IN THE COUNTRY.
FIRST QUARTER BEEF PROFITS:
GOOD MORNING I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS.  THE FIRST FISCAL QUARTER IS NOW IN THE BOOKS FOR MEAT EXPORTS...AND IT'S A SOLID SHOWING. BUT THE NARRATIVE IS DIFFERENT FOR DAIRY SHIPMENTS. MEAT EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF THE YEAR HAD A STRONG SHOWING, THANKS TO SOLID EXPORTS IN MARCH. THE U-S MEAT AND EXPORT FEDERATION SAYS EXPORTS OF U.S. BEEF AND PORK BOTH INCREASING YEAR OVER YEAR IN VOLUME. BEEF SHIPMENTS WERE UP 3 PERCENT FOR THE MONTH. TWO PERCENT FOR THE QUARTER. PORK EXPORTS WERE THE LARGEST IN 11 MONTHS--ALSO 3 PERCENT HIGHER YEAR OVER YEAR. U.S. M-E-F SAYS THE INDUSTRY IS POISED TO REBOUND FROM A DISAPPOINTED  2015.
CHICKEN:
 LET'S ACTUALLY TALK ABOUT CHICKEN FIRST. WE STILL HAVE A DOUBLE DIGIT DECLINE VERSUS LAST YEAR GOING ON IN EXPORTS. SO OUR NUMBER ONE MEAT  IS STILL LEFT HERE IN THE U.S. WHICH IS A PROBLEM. ON THE POSITIVE END, THE BEEF NUMBERS DID SHOW, YEA EXPORTS WERE UP A LITTLE. OUR FOCUS ACTUALLY WAS ON BEEF IMPORTS WHICH DID SHOW A GOOD DECLINE. U-S M-E-F SAYS GIVEN THE SHARP DECLINE IN THE U-S. DOLLAR THIS YEAR, THERE IS NO URGENCY FOR USDA TO LOWER ITS EXPORT PROJECTIONS IN TOMORROW'S SUPPLY & DEMAND REPORT.
DAIRY:
ON THE DAIRY SIDE, THE U.S. DAIRY EXPORT COUNCIL SAYS SHIPMENTS WERE DOWN 23 PERCENT IN VOLUME AND 31 PERCENT IN VALUE THIS MARCH. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT SALES TO OUR LARGEST MARKET --MEXICO -WERE DOWN 30 PERCENT. SHIPMENTS TO SOUTHEAST ASIA ALSO OFF ABOUT THAT MUCH. EXPORTS OF U.S. DAIRY IN MARCH ACCOUNTING FOR A LITTLE MORE THAN 12 PERCENT OF U.S. MILK PRODUCTION--THE LOWEST IN MORE THAN A YEAR. CHEESE EXPORTS FELL ABOUT 26 PERCENT DUE TO U.S. CHEESE PRICES AVERAGING ABOUT 10 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE REST OF THE WORLD. WE'LL TALK MORE ABOUT MILK AND DAIRY MARKETS COMING UP IN ANALYSIS.
ACREAGE SHIFT:
WHILE USDA THINKS FARMERS IN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PLANT FEWER ACRES OF CORN, WHEAT, SOYBEANS, DRY EDIBLE BEANS AND HAY THIS YEAR, THAT ACREAGE MIX IS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT SOME FARMERS PLANTED JUST A DECADE AGO WHEN...WHEAT WAS KING. TYNE MORGAN TELLS US WHY THE ACREAGE SHIFT IS PROMPTING A MAJOR INPUT SUPPLIER TO STEP UP THEIR GAME IN ORDER TO KEEP UP WITH FARMER DEMAND.
PLANTING PROGRESS REPORT:
 THE LATEST PLANTING PROGRESS REPORT WILL BE RELEASED THIS AFTERNOON. LAST WEEK, THE AGENCY SHOWED NORTH DAKOTA CORN PLANTING IN THE STATE 2 POINTS AHEAD OF AVERAGE, BUT 22 POINTS BEHIND THE RECORD PACE THEY SAW LAST YEAR.
CRPS:
USDA SAYS IT IS SEEING THE MOST COMPETITIVE CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM ACREAGE ENROLLMENT PERIOD IN THE PROGRAM'S THIRTY YEAR HISTORY. THE AGENCY SAYS CRP ENROLLED MORE THAN 800-THOUSAND ACRES.  NEARLY 1.7 MILLION ACRES WILL EXPIRE FROM THE PROGRAM THIS FALL -NOT MUCH WIGGLE ROOM THROUGHOUT THE YEAR SINCE CRP ACRES ARE CAPPED AT 24 MILLION PER FISCAL YEAR. LOWER COMMODITY PRICES DRIVING MORE ACRES TOWARD THE PROGRAM. FSA ADMINISTRATOR VAL DOLCINI THIS WAS THE MOST COMPETITIVE CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM ACREAGE ENROLLMENT PERIOD IN THE PROGRAM'S THIRTY YEAR HISTORY. LOW COMMODITY PRICES IS PROB THE MAIN REASON WE GOT INTO THIS. SOME OF THE GROUND WE PUT INTO THIS PROGRAM HAS ALWAYS BEEN MARGINAL GROUND. A REPRESENTATIVE WITH THE STATE OF IOWA'S FSA OFFICE SAYS MORE CRP ACRES -ALREADY IN THE PROGRAM -WILL EXPIRE NEXT YEAR.
CROP COMMENTS:
LETS CHECK IN WITH MIKE HOFFMAN AS WE START A NEW WEEK. HE HAS A FRESH LOOK AT CROP COMMENTS AND YOUR FIRST LOOK AT WEATHER. MIKE. GOOD MORNING CLINTON. LET'S START OFF IN EAST-CENTRAL IOWA, A VIEWER WRITING ON AGWEB, HE'S GETTING BACK TO PLANTING AFTER NEARLY A 9 DAY RECESS. HOWEVER, HE MAY BE HELD UP AGAIN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. MOVING JUST A COUPLE OF COUNTIES OVER TO CENTRAL IOWA, ANOTHER VIEWER ON AGWEB, SAYING THAT AREA HASN'T EXPEIRIENCED AS MUCH RAIN IN APRIL. HE SAYS MOST CORN IS PLANTED.
TEASE:
PLUS, MACHINERY PETE. STAYED TUNED FOLKS COMING UP WE'LL TALK USED TRACTORS JUST OVER 100 HORSEPOWER. AND WORKING WITH CATTLE CAN BE TRICKY SOMETIMES. BUT THEN ADD-ON THIS WORK ENVIRONMENT, AND IT'S DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS. WARZONE COWBOYS LATER ON AGDAY.
FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME:
IN AGRIBUSINESS LETS SEE HOW MARKETS CLOSED THE WEEK FROM THE FLOOR OF THE CME IN CHICAGO.  WE'LL START OFF WITH SOYBEANS. WE'RE LOOKING FOR CHINA TO GET A LITTLE
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BUYING. STRONG U.S. DOLLAR OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WE'VE SEEN MARKET SELL OFF A LITTLE BIT BUT TODAY WE SAW INVERSE. CURRENT SALES ON PAR WITH LAST YEAR'S NUMBERS. STRONG BUYING IT BACK TO PLAY AGAIN THE FUND GUYS ARE BACK IN THE MARKET AGAIN TODAY AS WE'LL SEE. SWITCH OVER TO CORN RIGHT NOW. PLANTING IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. ENDING STOCKS OF THE OLD CROP THOUGH ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED. BRAZIL'S PRODUCTION IS DOWN ABOUT THREE MILLION METRIC TONS AND THAT COULD HAVE A PLAY AS WE LOOK AT CORN TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW BUT STEADY UPWARD TREND. SWITCH OVER TO WHEAT RIGHT NOW. WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT THAT. ALL NEWS IS BEARISH ON WHEAT. WE GOT KANSAS CITY WHEAT YIELDS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. RUSSIA IS SELLING OFF SOME OF THE INVENTORY. YOU'RE LOOKING AT OVER A MILLION METRIC TONS. THIS IS GARY KOZLOWSKI WITH FARR FINANCIAL COMING TO YOU FROM THE CME.
AGRIBUSINESS:
OUR GUEST HERE AT THE AGRIBUSINESS DESK, MIKE NORTH WITH COMMODITY RISK MANAGEMENT GROUP. MIKE LET'S TALK ABOUT THE DAIRY COMPLEX WE MENTIONED AT TOP OF THE SHOW HERE BUT YOU KNOW IF WE COMPARE THIS YEAR 2009 DO WE LEARN ANYTHING WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS YEAR? WELL 2009 WAS A BRUTAL YEAR ON TWO FRONTS WE HAVE FEED PRICES COMING OFF OF 2008 THAT WERE VERY VERY ELEVATED. WE WERE CLOSE TO FIVE HUNDRED DOLLAR TON MEAL. WE HAD CORN THAT WAS PUT INTO THE BUNKERS AT FIVE, SIX, SEVEN BUCKSIT WAS BRUTAL ON THE FEED SIDE AND WE COMPOUNDED THAT WITH MILK PRICE THAT WHEN TO NINE DOLLARS. IT WAS A BLOODY YEAH A LOT OF EQUITY WAS LOST.
NATIONAL WEATHER:
WELCOME BACK TO AGDAY ON THSI MONDAY MONDAY MORNING MIKE IF WE LOOK AT THE RAINFALL MAP OVER THE PAST WEEK YOU CAN SEE SOME PLACES GOT A BUNCH OF RAINING. YEAH WHEN YOU START SEEING EIGHT INCHES PLUS IN THE WEEK YOU KNOW YOU PUT DOWN SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN. THESE ARE THE ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST WEEK BASICALLY A WEEK AGO SATURDAY THROUGH LAST FRIDAY. AND YOU CAN SEE A COUPLE OF AREAS WHERE IT WAS REALLY HEAVY.
REGIONAL WEATHER:
THAT'S A LOOK ACROSS THE COUNTRY NOW LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SOME LOCAL FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL FOR CASPER WYOMING TODAY MOSTLY CLOUDY COUPLE OF SHOWERS MAINLY A THUNDERSTORM HIGH OF SIXTY FOUR. MEMPHIS TENNESSEE BREEZY AND MILD SPOTTY SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS HIGH SEVENTY EIGHT. AND ELMIRA NEW YORK VARIABLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE HIGH AROUND SIXTY EIGHT DEGREES.
TEASE:
MACHINERY PETE WILL STROLL-IN IN ABOUT TWO MINUTES. HE'LL TELL US ABOUT STRONG DEMAND AND PRICES FOR SMALLER FARM TRACTORS. AND THIS SCENE OF COWBOYS DRIVING CATTLE COULD PASS FOR ONE OF OUR GREAT WESTERN STATES, BUT WHEN YOU SEE THIS , YOU KNOW WERE NOT IN "KANSAS" ANY LONGER.
MACHINERY PETE:
MACHINERY PETE JOINING US AGAIN FOR OUR MONDAY MORNING CHAT. TODAY HE'S LOOKING AT PRICES FOR TRACTORS AT JUST OVER A 100 HORSEPOWER. GREG. WELL TRACTORS JUST OVER 100 HORSEPOWER CONTINUE TO BE HOT SELLERS ON THE USED MARKET LAST WEDNESDAY ON A FARM AUCTION IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS 2012 JOHN DEERE 5115M HAD 1209 HOURS ON IT SOLD WITH A LOADER AND THIS TRACTOR IS 115 HORSEPOWER AND WENT FOR 53000 BUCKS NOW THAT IS THE SECOND HIGHEST AUCTION PRICE I'VE EVER SEEN ON A 5115M
TEASE:
WHEN WE COME BACK, COW PUNCHERS LIVE LIFE DANGEROUSLY...WORKING CATTLE IN A WAR ZONE. THAT STORY AFTER THE BREAK.
IN THE COUNTRY:
BEING A COWBOY HAS SOME UNIQUE CHALLENGES. BUT IMAGINE IF YOU'RE PUSHING CATTLE.... IN A WAR ZONE! THAT'S A REALITY OF LIFE FOR CATTLE PRODUCERS ALONG THE ISRAEL-SYRIA BORDER. CATTLE MINGLE CASUALLY ALONGSIDE ISRAELI ARMY TANKS DURING A RECENT MILITARY DRILL CONDUCTED BY THE ISRAELI ARMY. THESE CATTLEMEN HEAD-OUT ON HORSEBACK TO ROUND-UP 650 HEAD. WITH THE WIDE BRIM HAT, JEANS AND BELT BUCKLE, THEY COULD EASILY BE MISTAKEN FOR RANCHERS IN MONTANA. BUT HERE ALONG THE WAR-TORN BORDER, FRONTIER LIFE TAKES ON A WHOLE NEW MEANING.
CLOSING:
THAT'S ALL THE TIME WE HAVE THIS MORNING. WE'RE GLAD YOU TUNED IN. FOR TYNE MORGAN AND MIKE HOFFMAN, I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PROMO:
I'M CLINTON GRIFFITHS. TUESDAY ON AGDAY -WE''LL HAVE THE LATEST CROP PROGRESS REPORT. MIKE HOFFMAN MONITORS FARM COUNTRY WEATHER. AND TOP-NOTCH MARKET ANALYSIS. WATCH US WEEKDAYS HERE ON AGDAY.

 

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